MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 26 - Page Three

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-07-26 18:36:27

Oakland at San Francisco – 4:05 PM EST

Oakland					San Francisco
			Kendall Graveman					Tim Hudson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-135)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.261	0.701	0.316	0.131	SP vs. Left	0.287	0.77	0.338	0.105
SP vs. Right	0.269	0.768	0.333	0.168	SP vs. Right	0.262	0.697	0.305	0.18
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kendall Graveman – – I don’t see much to get excited about in Graveman’s skill set. A pesky Giants lineup is likely to be trouble for his low strikeout rate and average walk rate. Against left-handed batters, he has just a 12.6% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate leading to a 4.97 xFIP. He did have a nice run of seven straight quality starts when his decent ground ball rate was limiting damage, but it looks to me like his 4.43 SIERA is a more accurate expectation for him. Pitcher Rating = 4

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 88 – SIERA: 4.43 – ERA: 3.78 – K%: 14.6% – BB%: 7.9% – HR/9: 1.12

Salaries: $5,400 FD, $6,500 DK

Tim Hudson – An already low strikeout rate continues to decline as Hudson ages. But, on the positive side, he has been able to raise his ground ball rate to 57%, which keeps him in a lot of games. I can never recommend a pitcher for your lineups with a 12.6% strikeout rate, but you also can’t blindly stack against him as he tends to avoid blow-up starts. Pitcher Rating = 4.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 96 – SIERA: 3.99 – ERA: 4.76 – K%: 12.6% – BB%: 6.3% – HR/9: 1.21

Salaries: $6,100 FD, $5,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Josh Reddick – Reddick’s plate discipline against right-handed is so good he has become a favorite play of mine at his very reasonable salary. He is striking out just 8.5% against righties.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .369 – ISO: .202 – wRC+: 152

Stephen Vogt – Like Reddick, Vogt is especially tough on right-handed pitching and is a very affordable way to fill the catcher spot.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .382 – ISO: .231 – wRC+: 152

Secondary Plays:

Ben Zobrist – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .324 – ISO: .201 – wRC+: 113

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Posey is likely to go under-owned today, but has big upside from the catcher position. He has long been known as a lefty masher, but this season has been every bit as good against right-handed pitching
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .389 – OBP: .399 – ISO: .178 – wRC+: 156

Secondary Plays:

Hunter Pence – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .370 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .196 – wRC+: 144

Brandon Belt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .371 – ISO: .227 – wRC+: 153

Joe Panik – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .367 – OBP: .377 – ISO: .145 – wRC+: 141

Toronto at Seattle – 4:10 PM EST

Toronto					Seattle
			Mark Buehrle					Taijuan Walker
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-117)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.726	0.318	0.134	SP vs. Left	0.249	0.715	0.315	0.223
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.731	0.319	0.132	SP vs. Right	0.256	0	0.33	0.224
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mark Buehrle – Buehrle continues to chug along as a difficult pitcher to deal with in DFS. His surface stats seem to hold up year after year, but he always looks like he should be getting hit harder, and doesn’t have any strikeout potential. He is tough to play either on or against with his smoke and mirrors act. With his low ceiling, I’m much more likely to play Seattle bats than I am to roster Buehrle. Pitcher Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7,800 FD, $7,700 DK

Taijuan Walker – Walker is similar to the White Sox Carlos Rodon; a high upside young arm who is at risk of a blowup at any point. It looked he had things on track with a run of seven good starts, only to allow 16 runs in his last three starts. In some starts, I consider him a tournament option, but against this powerful Blue Jays offense, I would avoid him. Pitcher Rating = 5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 106 – SIERA: 3.51 – ERA: 5.06 – K%: 22.7% – BB%: 5.9% – HR/9: 1.52

Salaries: $7,700 FD, $6,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Reyes – When Toronto faces a right-handed pitcher, Reyes is one of the best ways to get exposure to the offense. All their big bats can homer at any time, but they are high priced for the matchup. Reyes should be able to reach base, and gets you the runs if the offense comes through.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .325 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .104 – wRC+: 105

Secondary Plays:

Josh Donaldson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .364 – OBP: .342 – ISO: .223 – wRC+: 132

Edwin Encarnacion – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .242 – wRC+: 115

Jose Bautista – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .369 – ISO: .293 – wRC+: 145

Seattle

Nelson Cruz – Cruz against left-handed pitching has just been unfair all season. He should have little problem against Buehrle.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .502 – OBP: .465 – ISO: .360 – wRC+: 235

Secondary Plays:

Mark Trumbo – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .293 – ISO: .207 – wRC+: 107

Austin Jackson – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .293 – ISO: .207 – wRC+: 107

Milwaukee at Arizona – 4:10 PM EST

Milwaukee					Arizona
			Matt Garza					Jeremy Hellickson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI (-117)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.72	0.319	0.17	SP vs. Left	0.253	0.711	0.31	0.187
SP vs. Right	0.255	0.711	0.312	0.175	SP vs. Right	0.282	0.822	0.356	0.202
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Garza – Garza had a good outing in his first start off the DL, but otherwise this year has been a disaster. Maybe the shoulder injury had something to do with it, but I can’t see any reason to play Garza, or any reason not to load up Arizona hitters against him. If there’s a silver lining, he’s been a little unfortunate in HR/FB%, so his 4.38 SIERA is not as bad as his other numbers look, but a trip to Chase Field is not going to do him any favors. Pitcher Rating = 3.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 105 – SIERA: 4.38 – ERA: 5.23 – K%: 15.4% – BB%: 7.5% – HR/9: 1.46

Salaries: $6,200 FD, $5,000 DK

Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson has been pitching well recently, with a 2.34 FIP and 16:2 K:BB ratio in his three July starts. I’m not ready to recommend him as a play at home yet, as he has struggled with home runs throughout his career. His splits show that left-handed batters should still be considered against him, but on the season he has a 22.3% strikeout rate and 3.7% walk rate to right-handed batters. Pitcher Rating = 5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 101 – SIERA: 3.83 – ERA: 4.87 – K%: 19.6% – BB%: 6.2% – HR/9: 1.24

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $6,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Adam Lind – Lind is the one big left-handed bat in this Brewers lineup that could give Hellickson trouble. Lind has been great throughout his career against right-handed pitching and Chase Field against a HR prone pitcher is a perfect spot for his skill set. NOTE – Lind may sit out today’s game with back stiffness.

2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .398 – OBP: .386 – ISO: .247 – wRC+: 154

Secondary Plays:

Gerardo Parra – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .370 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .189 – wRC+: 134

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – Anytime there’s a high profile Coors Field game, it gives you a chance to roster a player like Goldschmidt at a low ownership percentage. Goldy may well be the top hitter in the league right now.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .432 – OBP: .462 – ISO: .248 – wRC+: 176

David Peralta – Peralta has been great against right-handed pitching and hits well at home. With Ender Inciarte back in the lineup, Peralta should get a steady spot behind Goldschmidt in the batting order, giving him plenty of RBI opportunities.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .365 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .234 – wRC+: 129

Secondary Plays:

A.J. Pollock – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .154 – wRC+: 121

Ender Inciarte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .345 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .126 – wRC+: 116

Cincinnati at Colorado – 4:10 PM EST

Cincinnati					Colorado
			Michael Lorenzen					Kyle Kendrick
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL (-110)					11
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.310	0.98	0.421	0.162	SP vs. Left	0.290	0.877	0.379	0.15
SP vs. Right	0.218	0.69	0.3	0.153	SP vs. Right	0.270	0.776	0.339	0.118
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Lorenzen – Lorenzen is one of my favorite pitchers to pick on regardless of opponent, and pitching is Coors Field is a dream matchup for Rockies hitters. Lorenzen has a low strikeout rate of 15.7%, a high walk rate of 12.7% and 5.10 SIERA. You want as many batters as possible in all Coors Field games, but this one even more so than usual. Pitcher Rating = 1

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 76 – SIERA: 5.10 – ERA: 3.77 – K%: 15.7% – BB%: 12.7% – HR/9: 1.41

Salaries: $5,300 FD, $4,600 DK

Kyle Kendrick – The other side of this game is just as ugly, with Kyle Kendrick on the mound for the Rockies. Kendrick has just an 11.8% strikeout rate to go with his 4.92 SIERA. He has a low walk rate of 3.6% against right-handed hitters, but against left-handers, he has a 10% walk rate to go with his low K rate, leading to a 6.04/5.32 FIP/xFIP against lefties this season. Pitcher Rating = 1

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 107 – SIERA: 4.92 – ERA: 6.12 – K%: 11.8% – BB%: 6.5% – HR/9: 2.01

Salaries: $4,500 FD, $4,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Load up on this game, elite plays up and down the lineup, especially LHB.

Joey Votto – Votto has been great all year and is in top form right now with 18 hits in his last eight games.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .416 – OBP: .416 – ISO: .252 – wRC+: 167

Todd Frazier – Frazier is having an MVP-type season with 27 home runs and 67 RBI; he crushes both left and right-handed pitching and should feast on Kendrick.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .371 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .255 – wRC+: 136

Jay Bruce – Big power potential here. With all the top bats in this game, Bruce makes a better tournament option, but has as much upside as anyone today.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .337 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .221 – wRC+: 113

Secondary Plays:

Brandon Phillips – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .294 – OBP: .306 – ISO: .092 – wRC+: 83

Ivan DeJesus – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .368 – OBP: .385 – ISO: .161 – wRC+: 134

Marlon Byrd – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .316 – OBP: .283 – ISO: .210 – wRC+: 98

Billy Hamilton – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .247 – OBP: .278 – ISO: .044 – wRC+: 51

Colorado

Every Rockies bat is in play, starting with left-handers.

Charlie Blackmon – Blackmon has hit right-handed pitching hard and gets the leadoff spot in this marquee matchup. He is arguably the number one overall play today.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .384 – ISO: .193 – wRC+: 131

Carlos Gonzalez – CarGo is heating up in July and when he’s on, he is as good as any hitter in the league. He has five HR in his last nine games and a .467 wOBA in the month of July.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .389 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .270 – wRC+: 134

Troy Tulowitzki – The clear top play at shortstop anytime the Rockies are at home, he separates himself even further from the pack in this matchup.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .338 – ISO: .163 – wRC+: 101

Corey Dickerson – Dickerson came off the DL on Friday, giving a further boost to the Rockies offense. If he gets the start again today, don’t be afraid to use him against Lorenzen.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .371 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .234 – wRC+: 121

Secondary Plays:

Ben Paulsen – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .335 – ISO: .181 – wRC+: 103

Miami at San Diego – 4:10 PM EST

Miami					San Diego
			Mat Latos					Odrisamer Despaigne
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SDP (-108)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.251	0.668	0.294	0.179	SP vs. Left	0.255	0.733	0.325	0.107
SP vs. Right	0.229	0.672	0.297	0.205	SP vs. Right	0.243	0.669	0.295	0.178
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mat Latos – Latos has looked very good in his last three starts, with an 18:3 K:BB ratio and three runs allowed in his last 20 innings. He is no longer the ace that he was earlier in his career, but he has the stuff to be a solid arm, and gets a good matchup in a pitchers park in San Diego. He is slightly better than league average with a 21.3% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate. You could do much worse if trying to save some money on your pitcher. Pitcher Rating = 7

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 82 – SIERA: 3.71 – ERA: 4.48 – K%: 21.3% – BB%: 7.2% – HR/9: 0.77

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $8,000 DK

Odrisamer Despaigne – His home park and a matchup with a weak Marlins lineup are positives, but I just can’t get behind playing Despaigne with his incredibly low strikeout rate. A major league pitcher with a 12.5% strikeout rate has no margin for error. His low walk rate and above average ground ball rate are what keeps him viable for San Diego, but that is not enough to make him worth a play in your DFS lineup. Pitcher Rating = 4

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 90 – SIERA: 4.27 – ERA: 4.98 – K%: 12.5% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 1.30

Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Marlins’ bats can be used sparingly as needed against Despaigne. They are likely to put some runs on the board, but a tough ballpark and weak lineup make it tough to know where the scoring will come from.

Secondary Plays:

Justin Bour – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .364 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .227 – wRC+: 132

Christian Yelich – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .106 – wRC+: 107

San Diego

It’s tough to expect much offense from San Diego today. Matt Kemp has been hitting well enough recently that he’s worth a shot in tournaments if you want to go that way.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Kemp – 2015 vs RHP – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .317 – OBP: .310 – ISO: .154 – wRC+: 106

Detroit at Boston – 8:08 PM EST

Detroit					Boston
			Shane Greene					Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS (-135)					9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.316	0.883	0.382	14.3%	SP vs. Left	0.245	0.767	0.329	23.10%
SP vs. Right	0.230	0.693	0.306	23.8%	SP vs. Right	0.242	0.683	0.305	19.40%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Shane Greene – A popular sleeper candidate in the spring, Greene has simply not panned out. He was sent down to AAA in June to get straightened out, but it didn’t work as he has allowed 12 runs in his two starts back. He has been especially bad against left-handed batters with a 12.1% strikeout rate and 4.92 xFIP. Boston hitters can all be considered today against Greene. Pitcher Rating = 3

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 77 – SIERA: 4.62 – ERA: 6.52 – K%: 14.0% – BB%: 7.0%- HR/9: 1.40

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $4,200 DK

Eduardo Rodriguez – A look at Rodriguez game log shows a wildly unpredictable young starter with a mix of gems and blowups. In his last start at the Angels, he gave up seven runs without making it out of the 2nd inning. That was his third start of his past seven where he has given up at least six runs. I won’t be using him today against the right-handed heavy Tigers, who make for a good tournament play against the young lefty. Pitcher Rating = 5

Salaries: $7,500 FD, $7,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Victor Martinez – On sites where VMart has catcher eligibility, I would consider him an elite play. He has been much better against left-handed pitching this season with a .426 wOBA.

2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .426 – OBP: .452 – ISO: .145 – wRC+: 177

J.D. Martinez – JD Martinez should see plenty of RBI opportunities hitting in the heart of the Tigers packed lineup.

2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .354 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .203 – wRC+: 126

Rajai Davis – If Davis gets the leadoff spot, he makes a great salary savings play with high run scoring potential.

2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .175 – wRC+: 119

Secondary Plays:

Yoenis Cespedes – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .250 – OBP: .235 – ISO: .154 – wRC+: 53

Ian Kinsler – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .322 – ISO: .143 – wRC+: 105

Boston

David Ortiz – Ortiz continues to display fantastic plate discipline against right-handed pitching with more walks than strikeouts and good power.

2015 vs RHP – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .381 – ISO: .260 – wRC+: 146

Mookie Betts – Betts is hitting well against right-handed pitching from the top of the Boston order. He should lead the charge against Greene today.

2015 vs RHP – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .328 – ISO: .186 – wRC+: 116

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .325 – OBP: .305 – ISO: .178 – wRC+: 104

Pablo Sandoval – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .153 – wRC+: 112

Brock Holt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .110 – wRC+: 108

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