NFL Grind Down: Week 17
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
| New York Jets | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
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| Saturday – 1 p.m. | Ralph Wilson Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.7 | 10 | 13 | 11 | Offense | 23.8 | 12 | 27 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.8 | 16 | 20 | 16 | Opp. Defense | 19.5 | 7 | 18 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 20 | 20 | 25 | 7 | New York Jets | 8 | 3 | 17 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Marshall | 157 | 101 | 13 | 1,376 | Watkins | 81 | 49 | 9 | 912 | |
| Decker | 123 | 75 | 11 | 977 | Hogan | 56 | 35 | 2 | 448 | |
| Kerley | 26 | 16 | 2 | 152 | Lewis | |||||
| Cumberland | 14 | 5 | 0 | 77 | Clay | 78 | 51 | 3 | 528 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Bilal Powell (NYJ, Questionable), LeSean McCoy (BUF, Out)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 6.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 3.5
New York Jets
Quarterback: While he is not actually deserving of the NFL’s MVP award, Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,800, DK $5,400) is deserving of credit after posting a career year to complete a rise from obscurity to fantasy relevance while changing teams on essentially a yearly basis. Fitzpatrick has posted career highs in touchdowns, touchdown %, and a career best interception %, even while battling injuries later on in the season. Over the past five games, he has touchdown totals of 4, 2, 3, 1, and 3, with only one interception over that span. This week he’ll face a Buffalo defense that ranks 23rd against the pass according to Football Outsiders, and 12th in points allowed to the QB position. In terms of overall defensive efficiency, FO ranks the Bills second-worst in weighted DVOA, which considers recent results more heavily than results from earlier in the season. The Jets have everything to play for, the Bills have nothing to play for. This is an ideal spot for Fitzpatrick, and he’s a top play at the QB position.
Running Game: The Bills are significantly weaker against the run than against the pass according to the advanced metrics, as both Football Outsiders and numberFire rank the Bills 31st in the league at stopping opposing ground games. Running backs haven’t had huge games against the Bills this season, despite their inefficient efforts to stop the run, and the team ranks 17th in points allowed to opposing backs. Part of that is caused by a lack of volume faced in the passing game, as the Bills saw the second fewest RB targets against this season. Something has to give, however, as Bilal Powell (FD $6,000, DK $4,500) has seen at least five and as many as 13 targets in his six games since returning to action for the Jets. He also has six or more carries in four of those six contests, and that’s enough volume to piece together a decent game in PPR formats. However, he’s dealing with lingering injuries and faces a team that has limited backs in the passing game for most of the season, so perhaps he’s not worth the risk. Chris Ivory (FD $6,500, DK $4,400) has a nagging injury, as well, but he’ll suit up and take the early-down work for the New York offense. He was a workhorse back earlier this season, but has faded into a timeshare role that leaves him with little appeal, even in a good matchup. Powell is a GPP option in a PPR, and Ivory is tough to trust in any format.
If Powell were to miss out, Ivory would be much more appealing, as the touches would all go to him, and he’d get to carry the ball early and often against a struggling run defense. With so few reliable options at RB, he would be a secondary cash game play based on probable volume alone.
Pass Catchers: There are two consistent, viable options for the Jets in the passing game who require little introduction. Brandon Marshall (FD $8,600, DK $7,900) and Eric Decker (FD $7,400, DK $6,500) have been two of the best fantasy assets in season-long and daily games all year, and that should continue this week. The Bills allowed a touchdown to both players in their last meeting, something Decker and Marshall have done in three of their last five games, and several more this season. It’s quite easy to trust either of these players in any format, as they have very safe floors, and fairly high ceilings. Decker hasn’t scored fewer than 10 FanDuel points all season, while Marshall has four 20-point outings in his last five games, and only has three games with fewer than 12 FanDuel points.
The Takeaway: I can’t imagine playing DFS this weekend and not rostering Fitzpatrick, one of his wideouts, or some combination of the trio. The Jets have to win, the matchup is good enough, and the track record for all three players is spectacular.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: On the other side of this game, the Bills have nothing to play for, especially after learning that their coach and GM should return next season. The only people who have anything to play for are players looking to put good tape on file for free agency/roster-making purposes. Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,400, DK $5,300) doesn’t have to worry about making any rosters, but he does need to continue to pad his stats and build up his resume ahead of contract talks that should kick off this offseason. The terrific athlete and efficient passer appears to be just what the Bills need under center as they look to control the clock, run the ball and not give away possession. This gameplan doesn’t always lead to big fantasy production for Taylor, but when he needs to chase a game and involve himself heavily in the offense, he does so to great effect. He has several three-touchdown games this year, but a matchup with a top-10 defense eager to earn a playoff berth doesn’t seem like the spot for him to post another big fantasy day. The Jets have an elite run defense, even against quarterbacks (third-fewest rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs), and a solid pass defense. Taylor is an entirely unappealing fantasy option this weekend.
Running Game: Karlos Williams (FD $5,800, DK $4,800) and Mike Gillislee (FD $5,800, DK $4,400) will carry the Bills home with LeSean McCoy dealing with a knee injury that, even if he could, he should not play through. Williams has been extremely consistent about finding the end zone this season, while Gillislee has proven to have big-play potential in his limited appearances late in the season. However, the Jets have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to backs in the NFL and rank first in run defense according to Football Outsiders and numberFire. Backs have scored a total of one rushing touchdown against the Jets all season, and while a few have scored receiving touchdowns, there’s just not a lot of safety or potential in either of these backs. Both are viable in tournaments as “backs who will get decent volume at a fair price,” but neither is a strong play in any way.
Pass Catchers: In the first meeting between these two teams, Sammy Watkins (FD $7,800, DK $6,700) was held to under 20 yards on three catches. The now-injured Charles Clay was the only player to catch passes for more than 50 total yards, and Karlos Williams scored the only receiving touchdown. Watkins was limited because he was tracked by Darrelle Revis, something that will happen again this weekend. And with most of the other talent at wideout and tight end on the shelf for this final game, there’s really nothing to like for the Bills. This further reduces interest in Taylor, as there just aren’t great options for him to throw to, especially with the Jets able to focus on Watkins with their star cover corner.
The Takeaway: The Bills are home underdogs with nothing to play for. It’s a tough spot to roster any of their players, and the running backs are the only ones worthy of any consideration at all. Williams is preferred based on expected volume, but either is worthy of a spot on a cheap GPP lineup.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
| New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Saturday – 1 p.m. | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | 47 | 28.25 | 9.5 | 47 | 18.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 30.3 | 3 | 2 | 29 | Offense | 19.3 | 27 | 18 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 23 | 24 | 30 | Opp. Defense | 19.7 | 8 | 19 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 23 | 32 | 27 | 12 | New England Patriots | 9 | 11 | 20 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Edelman | 88 | 61 | 7 | 715 | Landry | 156 | 105 | 5 | 1,192 | |
| Amendola | 83 | 63 | 3 | 642 | Matthews | 61 | 43 | 4 | 666 | |
| LaFell | 70 | 35 | 0 | 517 | Parker | 44 | 21 | 2 | 388 | |
| Gronkowski | 113 | 70 | 11 | 1,158 | Cameron | 66 | 33 | 2 | 380 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Julian Edelman (NEP, Out), Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell (NEP, Questionable), Rishard Matthews, Kenny Stills (MIA, Questionable)
NE Matchup Rating: 7.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 3.0
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Tom Brady (FD $8,900, DK $7,400) and the Patriots can secure home-field advantage with a win in this contest, or with a Denver loss. Denver is playing a terrible San Diego team, so look for the Patriots to take matters into their own hands. Brady has been a terrific fantasy option all season, but twice in the last two months, he’s scored only one touchdown. Earlier this year, he was a lock for 300 yards and three or four touchdowns, but as his talent has diminished, his ceiling has, too. Miami ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass, and has allowed the tenth-most points to the QB position. Opposing passers have gone crazy against the Dolphins lately, as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers have all scored three or more times against them over the last five weeks. Brady is never a bad play, but his floor and ceiling have notably dropped in recent weeks. However, his motivation is quite high, as the Pats would like to avoid a potential trip to Mile High in January. He’s a fine tournament play.
Running Game: No team has allowed more FanDuel points to opposing running backs than the Dolphins, who have ceded 20 total touchdowns on the year to enemy RBs. In recent weeks, a lot of that damage has been done through the air, dating back to Dion Lewis 6/93/1 performance in Week 8, which came days after Arian Foster 5/66/1 outing. Since then, backs have gained yards and scored touchdowns through the air at an appealing rate, and James White (FD $6,400, DK $5,000) stands to benefit. He won’t lead the Patriots in touches, but if a New England back is going to do what Lewis did in Week 8 to close out the season, it’s White. Brandon Bolden (FD $5,500, DK $3,600) will likely see the most volume, and if this game gets out of hand, he and Steven Jackson (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) will carry the ball to run out the clock. The likely split between those two makes both tough to trust, and White’s role as a pass catcher makes him the strongest option of the bunch.
Pass Catchers: Assuming the Patriots don’t rush Danny Amendola (FD $6,300, DK $5,500) back from injury, it will be Brandon LaFell (FD $6,400, DK $4,000) and Keshawn Martin (FD $5,600, DK $3,000) starting at receiver. Martin was heavily targeted in Week 16, and while he didn’t do much wth it, it’s an encouraging sign for such a cheap player in PPR formats. Miami has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, and Martin could see 10+ targets against such a defense at a bargain salary. LaFell has big-play potential, but is incredibly inconsistent and hasn’t done much in recent weeks. Martin is the only wideout worth playing in DFS. But the pass catcher you want, either on his own or in a stack with Brady, is Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,100, DK $7,400). Miami ranks well in DVP against tight ends, yet allowed Gronk to go for 6/113/1 in their previous meeting. Matchups don’t particularly matter for Gronk, and with so much on the line, look for New England to find ways to get their best weapon involved.
The Takeaway: Brady, Gronk, White and Martin are your top options for the highly motivated Patriots. The defense and special teams can also be considered, as the Dolphins managed just seven points against the Pats last time out, and have allowed the sixth-most sacks in the league this season.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: The Dolphins are double-digit home underdogs against a defense that isn’t ranked in the top-10 in DVOA against the run or pass. That should tell you all you need to know about where Miami is at heading into the final week of the season. Ryan Tannehill (FD $6,700, DK $5,100) has three total touchdowns in his last four games, and threw two interceptions with no touchdowns the last time these teams met. There is no reason to use Tannehill in this situation.
Running Game: The Patriots rank 13th in DVOA against the run, and 22nd in DVP against RBs. They’re a slightly above average run defense, which combines with game flow concerns to limit the appeal of Lamar Miller (FD $6,500, DK $6,200). He has scored three times in the last three games, but is always a likely candidate to see his volume thrown out the window when things go wrong on the scoreboard. He’s far too expensive (especially on DK) to trust in this situation, and his performance against the Patriots last time out (nine carries for 15 yards) serves as warning for those looking to be “contrarian” with Miller.
Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry (FD $7,200, DK $6,600) is the focal point of the offense for the Dolphins, and has seen 10+ targets in four of his last five, and six of his last eight appearances. He doesn’t score all that often, so he’s preferred in PPR formats, but this is the one area where the Patriots may be prone to allowing a big fantasy day. Chris Hogan, Eric Decker, and Dwayne Harris (along with Landry in the previous meeting between these teams) posted respectable numbers out of the slot against New England this season, and the Pats rank 27th against WR3+ in DVOA, while ranking no worse than 17th against any other position. This indicates a weakness defending slot receivers, and while they will focus more attention on Landry than an average slot WR, he still has upside his teammates lack in this tough matchup. No other Miami pass catcher should be considered, but Landry has interesting potential from both a volume and matchup perspective.
The Takeaway: Jarvis Landry is the only Dolphin worth considering in a tough matchup against a Patriots team that will be driven to pick up a win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
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| Saturday – 1 p.m. | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 46.5 | 18 | -10.5 | 46.5 | 28.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.1 | 19 | 23 | 4 | Offense | 30.8 | 2 | 25 | 2 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 23 | 12 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 17 | 12 | 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18 | 12 | 16 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | 139 | 70 | 3 | 1,109 | Brown | 48 | 28 | 4 | 427 | |
| Jackson | 62 | 33 | 3 | 543 | Ginn | 97 | 44 | 10 | 799 | |
| Humphries | 38 | 27 | 1 | 260 | Funchess | 55 | 24 | 4 | 353 | |
| Seferian-Jenkins | 32 | 18 | 4 | 290 | Olsen | 122 | 75 | 7 | 1,088 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ted Ginn (CAR, Doubtful), Jonathan Stewart, Fozzy Whittaker (CAR, Out)
TB Matchup Rating: 3.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: It took a last-ditch hail mary (that didn’t even earn a win) to get Jameis Winston (FD $7,000, DK $5,300) his second touchdown against the Bears last week, and without that play, he finishes with a much more pedestrian stat line of 250/1/1. The statistics still count, and the Tampa Bay quarterback has been a strong fantasy option on several occasions this season, but a date with the Panthers leaves a lot to be desired. The Panthers need a win or an Arizona loss to lock up the top seed in the NFC, and with the Cardinals also playing in the afternoon window, Carolina can’t afford to take it easy on the Bucs. That’s why it’s tough to trust the Tampa Bay offense against the fourth-ranked defense in weighted DVOA, and the second best pass defense per DVOA. Winston is not worth the risk, as he showed by tossing four picks against the Panthers the last time these teams met.
Running Game: Doug Martin (FD $7,600, DK $6,700) lost TWO fumbles last week against the Bears, and finished with only 49 rushing yards on 17 attempts. This week, against a defense that ranks eighth in DVOA against the run and that has allowed a below-average amount of fantasy points to backs, he is extremely risky. Martin did pick up 106 rushing yards and a score the last time these teams met, but on the road against a Carolina team looking to bounce back from their first loss, I can’t see him recreating that effort. Charles Sims (FD $5,200, DK $3,900) scored last week and has some strong per-touch yardage totals over the past few weeks, but doesn’t have a reliable role on the offense, and Carolina is a tough matchup to try to utilized such a low volume player.
Pass Catchers: Mike Evans (FD $8,000, DK $7,300) and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (FD $5,600, DK $4,200) are normally the players to target from the Tampa passing attack, but Evans will be locked up against Josh Norman all afternoon, and ASJ will face a defense ranked second in DVOA against the tight end. There is no obvious way to attack this Carolina defense, especially with the limited talent the Bucs have on offense, so they’re more likely to try to run with their two backs rather than throw against Norman and company.
The Takeaway: The Bucs are huge underdogs on the road against a Carolina team that needs a win to lock up the top seed they’ve held for most of the season. None of their offensive talent should be trusted, as they all have tough matchups or volume concerns.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Cam Newton (FD $9,100, DK $7,500) didn’t have to do much the last time these teams met, but he did score twice, and rushed the ball 12 times. In recent weeks, he’s been helping out his hurting running back corps by carrying the ball himself quite a bit, which really boosts his floor. He’s also been throwing the ball well, but with a couple of notable exceptions (at Dallas and at Atlanta). Newton has 14 total touchdowns in his last four home games, and the Bucs rank 25th in DVOA against the pass. Tampa Bay has limited quarterbacks as runners for most of the year, which does lower expectations for Cam just a bit, but he’s still a very strong option as one of the year’s best fantasy assets at QB.
Running Game: With Jonathan Stewart still out, and Fozzy Whittaker now on the sidelines as well, Cameron Artis-Payne (FD $5,500, DK $4,300) and Mike Tolbert (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) are the primary, healthy backs who will handle most of the running game for the Panthers. The Buccaneers have a respectable run defense (seventh in DVOA, eighth in NEP at numberFire), but they did allow the Bears’ backs to run for 137 yards last week, and have given up a rushing TD to an opposing running back in three straight games. The upside is limited, as no back has gone over 100 yards against Tampa Bay since Week 3, but Artis-Payne is still cheap and will get most of the work out of the backfield for the Panthers. Newton is the team’s top red-zone rushing threat, and Tolbert will see short-yardage and goal-line work, but Artis-Payne will have his chances between the 20s and should still get touches as the Panthers approach the Tampa Bay end zone.
Pass Catchers: Ted Ginn is doubtful for this matchup, which means the Panthers may struggle to stretch the defense as they did last week against the Falcons. Corey Brown (FD $5,400, DK $3,400) is not a replacement for Ginn, who has gamebreaking speed (even if he has heartbreaking hands), and Greg Olsen (FD $6,600, DK $6,800) can’t do everything on his own. The Bucs have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts on the season, and the 16th most to tight ends, so this is a neutral matchup from a fantasy standpoint, even if Tampa Bay is a poor team from a metrics standpoint. They will “bend but not break” for the most part on defense, and allow teams to rack up catches and yards, but generally limit big plays and touchdowns. Of the Carolina receivers, I like Jerricho Cotchery (FD $5,300, DK $3,000) the most, as he has reliable hands and should earn Newton’s trust as the game goes on. He and Olsen are the players to consider in stacks with Newton, but honestly, Newton is fine to use on his own this weekend.
The Takeaway: The Carolina defense and special teams are arguably the top “Panthers” to play this weekend, while Newton, Artis-Payne and Olsen/Cotchery are all fine options as well.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
| New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Saturday – 1 p.m. | Georgia Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 52.5 | 23.5 | -5.5 | 52.5 | 29 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.9 | 7 | 1 | 22 | Offense | 21.5 | 21 | 6 | 17 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.7 | 14 | 6 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 30.6 | 32 | 30 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 30 | 1 | 29 | New Orleans Saints | 32 | 29 | 26 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooks | 123 | 79 | 9 | 1,134 | Jones | 192 | 127 | 8 | 1,722 | |
| Snead | 98 | 67 | 3 | 955 | White | 66 | 42 | 1 | 496 | |
| Colston | 67 | 45 | 4 | 520 | Hardy | 30 | 17 | 0 | 160 | |
| Watson | 100 | 68 | 5 | 766 | Tamme | 76 | 55 | 1 | 596 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Marques Colston (NO, Out), Tevin Coleman (ATL, Out)
NO Matchup Rating: 6.5
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.0
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: The Falcons have the better matchup in this game, but let’s not ignore the Saints’ comfortable situation on offense. Projected to score around 24 points, the New Orleans offense faces a defense ranked 20th in weighted DVOA per Football Outsiders and overall defense according to numberFire. The run defense is worse than the pass defense, but we’re still looking at a better-than-average matchup for Drew Brees (FD $8,400, DK $6,700) and company. With that said, Brees is dealing with a nagging foot injury and isn’t at home. Those concerns combine to cast a bit of doubt on his potential, as his three triple-touchdown performances in the last four weeks have all come at home, and his most recent road games have come with touchdown to interception ratios of 2:2, 0:1 and 2:0 against the lowly Bucs. In fact, that 312 yard, two touchdown performance in Tampa is his best road start of the year, and the only road start in which he eclipsed 20 FanDuel points. His six best fantasy performances all came at home. The odds aren’t in your favor when selecting a hurting Brees away from home, even if the ceiling is still theoretically there.
Running Game: Tim Hightower (FD $7,000, DK $5,500) was out of the NFL for a few years before seeing game action in early November, and quickly shot up the depth chart past the injured Khiry Robinson and the ineffective and injured C.J. Spiller. He has 29, 16 and 30 touches in his last three games, with three touchdowns over that span, as well. The Falcons have a poor run defense, ranking 25th in DVOA, 22nd in numberFire’s rankings, and fourth in fantasy points allowed. Hightower gets volume and a good matchup, but may not have game flow on his side. That’s the only reason to pause before plugging him into lineups as an otherwise very solid play this weekend.
Pass Catchers: According to Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus, the Falcons have begun using Desmond Trufant to shadow opposing team’s top receiver. That means he’ll spend a healthy amount of time across from Brandin Cooks (FD $7,600, DK $6,400). The Falcons already did a good job of limiting production from opposing WR1 (seven in DVOA), but tracking them full-time (or even part-time) with Trufant should improve that standing. That means Willie Snead (FD $6,300, DK $4,400) will have a slightly better matchup, but he hasn’t scored in two months. Still, he’s the only other receiver that’s trustworthy, and can be deployed in tournaments. Benjamin Watson (FD $5,300, DK $4,600) will face a defense that has allowed just shy of 1000 yards and eight touchdowns to tight ends this season, but most of that production came in the first six weeks… including a big game allowed to Watson himself. Watson’s usage has been difficult to predict, but if you want a New Orleans tight end, he is definitely the best option.
The Takeaway: It’s tough to trust the passing attack for the Saints away from home, but Tim Hightower and the running game should be reliable enough if the contest doesn’t get out of hand. Willie Snead is the preferred pass catcher if you’re looking to target a player in the passing attack for the Saints.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Playing against the Saints guarantees an opposing quarterback at least one passing touchdown, and in most cases, it results in several scores. New Orleans has allowed 43 passing touchdowns on the year, which has earned them a dead-last ranking in DVOA against the pass and in numberFire’s pass defense metric. They’re also the worst in terms of overall numberFire defense, and weighted DVOA defense, as well as 32nd in DVOA against tight ends and running backs in the passing game. This is a bad defense in every way. The last time these teams met, Matt Ryan (FD $7,600, DK $5,500) managed two touchdowns and 295 yards passing, a solid performance, and one of his best on the year. But overall, he’s been a consistent but underwhelming fantasy option, finishing with between 14 and 19 fantasy points in seven of his starts. Considering how explosive the QB position has been this season, that level of performance (and his five starts that finished with fewer than 14 points) just isn’t going to cut it. But he’ll be playing at home, with no pressure, against a defense that is not only terrible, but also checked out for the season. The ceiling is sky high, and worth the risk, even if he’s more popular than he should be based on his recent track record.
Running Game: No player will be under more scrutiny this offseason from NFL and fantasy fans alike than Devonta Freeman (FD $8,800, DK $7,600), as the Falcons’ back has failed to recreate the magic of his four-week run in the middle of the season but has remained a viable fantasy asset despite a drop in efficiency. After five straight games with yards per carry north of 4.5 starting in Week 3, Freeman has struggled to get anything going on the ground since. But he has remained active in the passing game, getting 10+ targets three times, and has found the end zone a few times as well. The Saints allow plenty of fantasy points to backs, too, and they were one of Freeman’s victims earlier this season. This is a fine spot to target Freeman, but it appears the 150-yard, three-touchdown player we saw three months ago might not be coming back.
Pass Catchers: Since the Falcons have nothing else to play for, why not try to get Julio Jones (FD $9,300, DK $8,500) into the record books in terms of catches and yards in a season? He would need something along the lines of 17 catches for 250 yards to reach both milestones, but that’s not out of the question. The Saints rank 27th in DVOA against opposing WR1, and have allowed the eighth-most points per game to opposing wideouts. This is a great spot for Jones, and the outside shot that he’ll be chasing a record makes him that much more appealing. Jacob Tamme (FD $4,900, DK $3,300) and Roddy White (FD $5,800, DK $3,600) are veterans with spotty volume but upside thanks to their matchup with New Orleans. Tamme gets the better numbers matchup, as the Saints rank last in DVOA and first in points allowed against tight ends. But it’s White who has a bit more consistent usage over the past few weeks, and he did score the last time these teams met. Either one can be used in tournaments. Justin Hardy (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) seems to be next in line for targets for Atlanta, and should White sit out (for whatever reason), he would be a very strong play.
The Takeaway: The Falcons have a dream matchup, but have been disappointing on offense for most of the season. Still, the upside is there, and there may be records to chase for Julio Jones if he gets off to a hot start. This sort of narrative can truly impact playcalling and decision making, and shouldn’t be ignored. If Jones gets four or five early grabs, the team may go all out to get him in the record books.