NHL Grind Down: Thursday, April 6th - Page Two
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St. Louis Blues at Florida Panthers
| St. Louis Blues | Florida Panthers | ||||||||
 | Jake Allen |  | James Reimer | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 43-29-7 | 33-35-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.78 | 2.62 | 21.10% | 84.30% | Team Stats | 2.44 | 2.86 | 16.70% | 85.70% |
Blues 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.58 CF% | 2.46 xGF/60 | 2.06 xGA/60
Panthers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.30 CF% | 2.44 xGF/60 | 2.87 xGA/60
Playing against the Panthers couldn’t come at a better time for the Blues. The team is in free-fall mode and it seems like every name-brand player outside of Jaromir Jagr is hurt. This sets the St. Louis offense up nicely, but they haven’t exactly been the bruising Blues of the past. Outside of the top line of Alex Steen, Jaden Schwartz, and Vladimir Tarasenko, the St. Louis offense has been very quiet. Patrik Berglund shows up now and again but is a low ceiling option. He’s been on the ice for a fair amount of high-danger scoring chances and skates on the top power play unit, but he’s not much of a shooter and doesn’t offer enough of a floor for his cap savings to be relevant in cash games. Jori Lehtera is back from injury, so look for him to ruin the Blues top line in short order. Don’t play Jori Lehtera. If there were, maybe, six fewer games tonight, a second line stack could be considered (Berglund, David Perron, and Magnus Paajarvi), but there are enough value plays out there with better floors and ceilings. We could see the return of James Reimer to the net as well, and while he’s sure to have some rust accumulated over the past week, he’s been a fine goalie this year. The Reto Berra Experience would be the preferred choice, of course. Despite the cratering 5v5 Florida numbers, St. Louis’s offense just doesn’t have the final gear that really pushes this matchup over the edge.
Besides the immortal Jaromir Jagr, who is still standing for Florida? Vincent Trocheck and Jonathan Marchessault are there in body and spirit, while Jonathan Huberdeau may be there in body only. It doesn’t matter much, as this is a very poor draw for Florida. All season long the Panthers offense has lagged, and though the past 25 games have been better, a 2.44 xGF/60 at 5v5 is still nothing to write home about. As if the underwhelming offense wasn’t enough, the Panthers will also face a stiff defense in the St. Louis Blues. St. Louis has limited virtually everything at 5v5, from pace, to scoring chances to goals allowed. Jake Allen is coming off a poor outing and a quick hook in his last game, so perhaps the Panthers see Carter Hutton in net. Either way, this is an unfavorable spot and the Panthers are not recommended options.
Blues Elite Plays:Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo
Blues Secondary Plays:Jaden Schwartz, Alex Steen, David Perron
Panthers Elite Plays: None
Panthers Secondary Plays: None
Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars
| Nashville Predators | Dallas Stars | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Kari Lehtonen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 40-28-12 | 33-36-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.88 | 2.69 | 19.30% | 80.70% | Team Stats | 2.71 | 3.05 | 17.60% | 74.20% |
Predators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.46 CF% | 2.51 xGF/60 | 2.39 xGA/60
Stars 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.95 CF% | 2.57 xGF/60 | 2.58 xGA/60
The Predators are seemingly entering “playoff mode” but the reality is Nashville’s offense is just average right now. The team went through a spell where the top line could sneeze and get the puck in the net, but the secondary scoring has dried up and the top line has come back to Earth. Tonight’s matchup might seem great on paper, but Dallas hasn’t been completely inept defensively over the past few weeks. Especially with Kari Lehtonen in net, the team has mostly held their own at 5v5 – the penalty kill is another story. For that reason, and with Nashville’s secondary scoring extremely volatile, focusing on the top power play unit may be the way to go. Thankfully, Nashville makes the decision a bit easier for us as Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson stick together on the man advantage. James Neal could return for this game, and he has previously skated on the top power play unit. He wasn’t playing well before going out of the lineup, so a lingering injury could be at play. In his stead, Kevin Fiala hopped on the top power play unit and becomes an intriguing value play. He’s a strong CF% player and considering he’s on the third line, he should see some nice on-ice matchups at 5v5. The Nashville defense is a high-end unit, but they haven’t been finding twine of late. This is a problem as they carry higher salaries. What can be said for all of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, and Ryan Ellis is that they are still shooting, and Ellis’s price has retreated a bit. It’s probably just a matter of time before this group gets going again, and this is a fine matchup for them to do so, making them viable in all formats.
Following a mostly disappointing outing against Arizona in Dallas’s last game, it’s extremely difficult to get too into the Stars tonight. There are a couple issues here. First, Dallas’s line are all over the place – Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, and Jason Spezza all played on different 5v5 lines last game. Second, the matchup – even on home ice – is less than ideal as Nashville has a stingy defense and Pekka Rinne has been playing better. Finally, the big name Stars still carry a premium for the most part (FD) and with the big three on separate lines at 5v5 and production stymied (except for Spezza), it’s hard to justify paying for them as contrarian options in a tough matchup. Nashville has few holes defensively and Pekka Rinne has been playing very well over the past month – even his implosion rating doesn’t bump Dallas up too far. Though talent can always win out, this is a tough spot to pay up for Dallas.
Predators Elite Plays:Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson
Predators Secondary Plays:Ryan Johansen, Kevin Fiala, Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis
Stars Elite Plays: None
Stars Secondary Plays:Jason Spezza
Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche
| Minnesota Wild | Colorado Avalanche | ||||||||
 | Devan Dubnyk |  | Calvin Pickard | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 47-25-8 | 22-54-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.22 | 2.51 | 20.40% | 82.60% | Team Stats | 1.96 | 3.37 | 12.50% | 76.40% |
Wild 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.76 CF% | 2.61 xGF/60 | 1.92 xGA/60
Avalanche 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.69 CF% | 2.21 xGF/60 | 2.51 xGA/60
It seems as though every time it looks like the Wild are ready to bust out of their malaise, they do something to negate their positive efforts. Devan Dubnyk is still struggling mightily and the offense continues to play much better on home ice. Tonight sets up for something of a “trap” as the Wild’s previous outing against the Hurricanes (five goals scored) and the basement dwelling Avalanche on the schedule may indicate a lopsided affair. The Avs have actually been a mostly boring DFS team, as they aren’t allowing an overwhelming number of 5v5 scoring chances or high-danger shot attempts. So while Colorado has major structural issues, the fact is picking on them in DFS hasn’t been the land of milk and honey it seems. The top line of Eric Staal, Zach Parise, and Nino Niederreiter have some strong underlying numbers, so while they will likely be the focus of Colorado’s defensive assignments, it’s a winnable matchup for them. The second line of Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund, and Erik Haula have seen their prices come down, though it’s due to a lack of production of late. They are a more risky proposition but make for an interesting tournament stack. Colorado’s penalty kill is declining and is now in contention to take the silver for worst penalty kill in the league (behind Dallas). The Wild have made it easy with their power play assignments as Staal, Parise, and Jason Pominville are the forwards on the top unit while Niederreiter, Koivu, and Granlund play on the second unit. Of course, that means no one line sticks together on the advantage, but it opens the door to mini-stacks. When looking at the blueline, note that Matt Dumba and Jonas Brodin have been skating with the Staal unit with Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon patrolling the blueline on the second unit. The cheaper salaries of Dumba and Brodin make the higher costs of Staal and Parise more palatable if looking to stack.
Despite some correction of late in their lackluster goal production, Colorado’s offense figures to look like its normal self tonight. Minnesota – despite Devan Dubnyk’s issues – remain a very difficult defense to attack. They have one of the lowest 5v5 xGA/60 in the league over the past 25 games, so Dubnyk’s mistakes are all the more puzzling. But, that’s an issue for a goalie voodoo witch doctor. Nathan MacKinnon, Sven Andrighetto, and Mikko Rantanen (if healthy) tend to draw the tougher 5v5 matchups, which would likely pit them against the Staal line for Minnesota. If that is the case, a contrarian Colorado play utilizing this line becomes less likely to hit. The Staal line is extremely strong at driving play and limiting chances against. MacKinnon represents the closest thing the Avs have to a floor player. Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog could be interesting options in deep GPP lineups if the matchup was right, but this defense limits the already limited appeal of the duo. Playing the Avalanche would be a leap of faith that the offense can beat a tough defense and that Dubnyk’s struggles continue.
Wild Elite Plays:Eric Staal, Nino Niederreiter, Zach Parise, Matt Dumba
Wild Secondary Plays:Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu, Erika Haula, Martin Hanzal, Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon
Avalanche Elite Plays: None
Avalanche Secondary Plays:Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog
Chicago Blackhawks at Anaheim Ducks
| Chicago Blackhawks | Anaheim Ducks | ||||||||
 | Corey Crawford |  | Jonathan Bernier | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 50-22-8 | 44-23-13 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.96 | 2.57 | 18.50% | 78.20% | Team Stats | 2.65 | 2.43 | 18.50% | 84.70% |
Blackhawks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.16 CF% | 2.56 xGF/60 | 2.31 xGA/60
Ducks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.35 CF% | 3.13 xGF/60 | 2.61 xGA/60
A matchup with the banged-up Ducks defense is great timing for the Blackhawks. It sounds like Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm will miss the game, while Sami Vatanen will return. Anaheim presents a sneaky good matchup for the top scoring line if Lindholm does indeed sit. Lindholm is a legit shutdown defender, and he would normally deploy against the Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Tanner Kero line. With Lindholm out, this line becomes more interesting than they otherwise might. The Ducks defense has been getting opened up a little bit over the past 25 games. They rank sixth in 5v5 CA/60, seventh in scoring-changes allowed, and fourth in high-danger shot attempts allowed. Their penalty kill remains elite. Jonathan Bernier and John Gibson have been good in net, which helps mitigate some of the poor defensive numbers (actual 5v5 GA/60 of 1.8 over past 25). The Kane line should also draw out against Ryan Kesler at 5v5, but while Kesler has been good, he’s not a shutdown center. With the game on the road and the Vegas line likely to be close, this line could go overlooked. They are pricey, but they offer upside unlike many other lines. The matchup doesn’t seem as great for Jonathan Toews if only because his linemates are a bit less reliable (though Richard Panik has certainly not been bad). Ryan Hartman and Marian Hossa form a nice duo on the second line, but on a full slate in a matchup that isn’t an A+ they don’t make for top plays by any means. With Anaheim’s power play so strong, Chicago’s blueliners carry a bit of risk. Again, not a matchup that requires tons of exposure, but there is certainly a nice argument for Kane and Panarin.
Anaheim’s offense remains a force to be reckoned with at the moment. They’ll draw a Blackhawks team that has been playing better defensively, though one that may or may not choose to rest key blueliners (Duncan Keith rested last game). Anaheim’s offense is surging right now, of course, with Patrick Eaves providing a big spark to Ryan Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell on the top line. Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg, and Andrew Cogliano are also playing better – they figure to draw out at 5v5 against the Kane line. The trio has a lower floor than the Getzlaf line (especially with Cogliano). Though the Kane line plays an open game, they drive play quite well and as such have lower CA/60 and SCA/60 at 5v5. This is a much better for the Getzlaf life, especially as Getzlaf saw power play time with Rakell on the top power play unit and then separate time with Eaves on a hybrid unit (Getzlaf was a market share monster). Chicago’s penalty kill is certainly beatable, though the Hawks don’t take many penalties at all. Last game, with Hampus Lindholm out and Cam Fowler leaving early, we saw a significant boost in power play opportunity for both Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour. Even if a Ducks stack isn’t your play, these two are very attractive punt plays on the blueline as they are barely above minimum. If Sami Vatanen returns he’ll eat in to that opportunity some, but there is enough go around. Josh Manson is another cheap blueliner to consider.
Blackhawks Elite Plays:Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin
Blackhawks Secondary Plays:Tanner Kero, Richard Panik
Ducks Elite Plays: Ryan Getzlaf, Patrick Eaves, Rickard Rakell
Ducks Secondary Plays:Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg, Corey Perry, Brandon Montour, Shea Theodore
Vancouver Canucks at Arizona Coyotes
| Vancouver Canucks | Arizona Coyotes | ||||||||
 | Ryan Miller |  | Mike Smith | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-40-9 | 29-41-10 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.18 | 2.90 | 13.60% | 77.50% | Team Stats | 2.33 | 3.16 | 15.50% | 78.00% |
Canucks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 45.31 CF% | 2.17 xGF/60 | 2.63 xGA/60
Coyotes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 43.1 CF% | 2.36 xGF/60 | 3.22 xGA/60
Can a matchup with the Coyotes in the dog days of the season make the Canucks interesting in DFS? It just might… but not to great lengths. For as bad as the Arizona defense has been in all situations – and it’s been bad! – the Vancouver offense has been equally poor. If Loui Eriksson were healthy and skating with Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin on the top line, a discussion could be had about a low cost stack. Unfortunately, Eriksson is hurt and the Sedins are not producing. Daniel (the winger, the good one for DFS) is at least shooting. The line of Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi, and Brock Boeser does inspire a bit of confidence. The Coyotes will be without Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the blueline, and the team already has one of the highest xGA/60, has allowed the most shot attempts at 5v5 by a wide margin, and paces the league in scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts allowed. While none of the Canucks are real go-getters in any of these regards, Bo Horvat does have a respectable HDCF/60 and Brock Boeser has treaded water since becoming an NHLer. Normally teams playing the Coyotes carry extremely high ownership but it seems unlikely that would happen with the Canucks. Also, note that Horvat and Baertschi stick together on the power play and their unit has played a majority of the opportunities over the past three games. Ben Hutton and Troy Stecher play the blueline on the top power play unit.
If Radim Vrbata is out tonight, then the appeal of the Coyotes in a favorable matchup isn’t high on the meter whatsoever. The Coyotes have some young talent that is intriguing in a plus matchup. But how deep do you want to go? Without Vrbata the lines project as Alex Burmistrov, Anthony Duclair, and Max Domi on the top line with Christian Dvorak, Clayton Keller, and Peter Holland on the second. Outside of Domi and possibly Keller, each of these players has issues. Duclair scored in back-to-back games, but played a cumulative 23 minutes. Dvorak has three goals and an assist over his past four games, but just four shots on net over the same time – not a sustainable rate. Burmistrov is playing very well at the moment, but he’s an-season waiver pickup while Peter Holland may not even be a real player (kidding). The point is, even in a great matchup these guys carry more risk than most. That said, if flipping a coin between Coyotes and Avalanche, the ‘Yotes would be the preferred choice. Vancouver’s metrics are declining rapidly as the season closes out, and the team has allowed the fifth most shot attempts at 5v5 over the past 25 games. They are also allowing plenty of scoring chances and quality shots while the penalty kill lags. Burmistrov and Domi carry a power play correlation on the top unit while Dvorak and Keller do so as well on the second team. Alex Goligoski saw a rise in his role with Ekman-Larsson out, and he’s been productive in spurts this year. Jakob Chychrun and Anthony DeAngelo also saw more of a role, as did Kevin Connauton (who is not of much DFS interest). After all that, the Coyotes don’t actually sound all that bad, eh? The Coyotes also don’t tend to use either of their top lines against opposing top lines, so the players of interest should avoid the Sedin line (which isn’t a big deal, but it’s the toughest draw). Just keep in mind that they are a young, troubled team that can easily let down in a good spot.
Canucks Elite Plays:Bo Horvat
Canucks Secondary Plays:Sven Baertschi, Brock Boesser, Daniel Sedin, Troy Stecher, Ben Hutton, Alex Edler
Coyotes Elite Plays: None
Coyotes Secondary Plays:Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Clayton Keller, Christian Dvorak, Alex Goligoski