NHL Grind Down: Thursday, October 15th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins – 07:00 PM EDT
| Ottawa Senators | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Craig Anderson |  | Marc-Andre Fleury | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 43-26 | 43-27 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.83 | 2.54 | 16.80% | 82.90% | Team Stats | 2.65 | 2.49 | 19.30% | 84.80% |
The Ottawa Senators are on the back-to-back tonight, traveling to Pittsburgh to face a Penguins squad that is desperately seeking their first win after a disappointing start to the season. Ottawa dismantled the Blue Jackets in a 7-3 victory last night led by Erik Karlsson four assists. This victory could prove to be a huge momentum builder as the Senators got contributions throughout the entirety of the lineup. Ottawa’s’ top line of Mark Stone – Kyle Turris – Mike Hoffman continued to produce by factoring into two goals. Perhaps more significantly, though, Bobby Ryan emerged from the shadows and put together a three-point game. Ryan is a 4-time 30-goal scorer and is the most skilled forward on this Senators roster (that’s why he has a $50 million contract that pays him an average of $7.25 million a year). Despite his fantasy potential, Ryan is often an under owned and underrated DFS play due to his 2nd-line status. If you like the Senators in this matchup, look toward going back to the well with the Bobby Ryan – Mika Zibanejad pairing as a contrarian GPP option.
The Pittsburgh Penguins added elite goal scorer Phil Kessel in the offseason with the hope that a Sidney Crosby – Kessel connection would light up the scoresheet. While Kessel has quietly accrued two points, Crosby surprisingly remains scoreless through the team’s first three games. Crosby’s struggles are echoed throughout the lineup as the Pens have only managed a goal a game to start the year. This offense is full of talent and a matchup against a young Senators team playing on a back-to-back on the road may be the perfect opportunity. Targeting against a team on a back-to-back on the road backfired on many of us as the Jets recently downed the Rangers in a similar situation, but history and experience tell us this is still a great spot for the Penguins. If the Penguins do find their stride in this game, the offense will flow through Crosby and/or Evgeni Malkin. While I would usually recommend Malkin as the better GPP option due to his equally high ceiling and lower projected ownership, Crosby’s recent lack of production may in fact push his ownership level down, potentially making him one of the best GPP plays of the night. Kris Letang is also firmly in play, having scored and put five shots on net his last time out.
Elite Plays
OTT: Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman
PIT: Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang
Secondary Plays
OTT: Bobby Ryan, Mika Zibanejad
PIT: Chris Kunitz, Patric Hornqvist
Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals – 07:00 PM EDT
| Chicago Blackhawks | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Corey Crawford |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 48-28 | 45-26 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.68 | 2.27 | 17.60% | 83.40% | Team Stats | 2.89 | 2.43 | 25.30% | 81.20% |
Chicago will also be playing on a back-to-back on the road against the Washington Capitals tonight. The defending Stanley Cup Champion Blackhawks were shut out by Michal Neuvirth and the Flyers yesterday and are currently sporting a mediocre 2-2-0 record. Despite their underwhelming record, the Blackhawks have acquitted themselves reasonably well to start the season, having played several tightly-fought games against the Rangers and Islanders. Patrick Kane is the clear focal point of the Blackhawks offense and he has already demonstrated great chemistry with Russian import Artemi Panarin. This emerging duo has 10 points through the season’s first four games. Yesterday’s game also saw Joel Quenneville start Ryan Garbutt on the Marian Hossa – Jonathan Toews line. Garbutt eventually gave way to Viktor Tikhonov mid-game, so keep an eye out for news relating to who will play tonight in this spot. It is likely that backup goaltender Scott Darling will get the start on the back-to-back.
The Washington Capitals are a team that is already in the midst of some drama to start the season. The Capitals’ Alexander Ovechkin “officially” missed Tuesday’s game against the Sharks due to “personal reasons,” but reports have emerged that he overslept that day, missed the morning skate, and was benched that night as a result. The Capitals lost that game 5-0. I may be reading into this narrative too hard, but for Ovechkin to come out flying tonight in an effort to put this incident behind him, regain the confidence of his teammates, and remind everyone that he is the best goal scorer in the NHL. Chicago never presents a great matchup with their two solid shutdown lines, but the advantage is considerably weakened when Chicago is on the road, particularly on a back-to-back. Also, there isn’t much the Hawks can do about Ovechkin if they put him on the power play—-Washington converted on the PP at 25.3% in 2014-2015 which was good for the top spot in the league. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ovi light the lamp more than once tonight in a statement game and for his linemates Evgeny Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie to get their first points of the season as well.
Elite Plays
CHI: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith
WAS: Alexander Ovechkin
Secondary Plays
CHI: Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Brent Seabrook
WAS: T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson
Nashville Predators at New York Islanders – 07:00 PM EDT
| Nashville Predators | New York Islanders | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Jaroslav Halak | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 47-25 | 47-28 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.46 | 16.20% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 2.99 | 2.73 | 18.70% | 78.00% |
The Nashville Predators hope to maintain their undefeated (3-0-0) start to the season as they travel to Brooklyn tonight to face the Islanders in what predicts to be a tlow-scoring affair. As in years past, the Predators’ depth and strong defensive play have been the key to their success thus far this season. Let’s also not forget that Pekka Rinne has put on a clinic over the three victories (allowing only two goals against) and is well on his way to finishing the season as a Vezina Trophy finalist once again. While Nashville’s depth makes scoring hard to predict, sniper James Neal cannot stay pointless forever and I expect his presence to be felt soon. It appears Mike Fisher will replace Mike Ribeiro as the first line center between Neal and second-year star Filip Forsberg, which may help jump start the line. Backup goaltender Thomas Greiss appears slated to start in place of the injured Jaroslav Halak once again, affording the Predators another advantage.
The New York Islanders notched their first win of the season on Sunday in a lopsided game against the Winnipeg Jets punctuated by two Islanders power play goals. Franchise player John Tavares had three points in the game (1g 2a) and his linemates Ryan Strome and Anders Lee each notched their first points of the season as well. Tavares is undeniably an elite NHL talent, has started the season strong, and will likely compete for the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s leading scorer once again this year (he finished second last year). Though you can justify playing Tavares in nearly any matchup, it is worth noting that the Predators are among the stingiest defensive teams in the league. Simply put, rolling out any Islanders against a red hot Pekka Rinne is a proposition that comes with a great deal of risk.
Elite Plays
NSH: James Neal, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Shea Weber
NYI: None.
Secondary Plays
NSH: Mike Fisher, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson
NYI: John Tavares, Anders Lee, Ryan Strome, Johnny Boychuk
Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers – 07:30 PM EDT
| Buffalo Sabres | Florida Panthers | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Roberto Luongo | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 23-51 | 38-29 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 1.87 | 3.28 | 13.40% | 75.10% | Team Stats | 2.41 | 2.60 | 16.30% | 80.00% |
The Buffalo Sabres won their first game of the season on Monday against the Blue Jackets and will look to carry that success on the road when they face the Panthers tonight in Florida. Jack Eichel is certainly living up to the hype in his rookie year and the new-look Sabres are definitely not the same bottom of the barrel team as last year. The Buffalo defense still has some holes, but the forward additions of Eichel, Evander Kane, and Ryan O’Reilly are already showing that they will make an impact this year. The Panthers present a tough matchup as evidenced by the fact that they have only allowed three goals over their first three games to start the season. In addition to the tough matchup, Buffalo will be playing their first road game of the year. The future looks brighter in Buffalo, but I think the prudent move tonight would be to temper your excitement.
The Florida Panthers have the look of a playoff bound team and I expect them to continue to impress tonight against the Buffalo Sabres. While the Panthers’ top line of Jonathan Huberdeau – Aleksander Barkov – Jaromir Jagr gets most of the attention (and for good reason), lost in the shuffle is that this Panthers team has surprisingly good depth. Third liner Vincent Trocheck, playing the wing opposite veteran Jussi Jokinen, leads the team in points. Nick Bjugstad and Reilly Smith are both highly skilled second-line players. The blueline, led by Aaron Ekblad (who I think will be an all-star this year) is solid and chock full of young talent. Roberto Luongo has looked strong in goal and will likely enjoy success all year with this group playing in front of him. I’m high on the Panthers in general and the matchup with Buffalo is a great one as the Sabres’ blueline is still the biggest question mark the organization has.
Elite Plays
BUF: None.
FLA: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr, Aaron Ekblad
Secondary Plays
BUF: Jack Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Matt Moulson, Evander Kane
FLA: Nick Bjugstad, Reilly Smith, Brandon Pirri, Brian Campbell
New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens – 07:30 PM EDT
| New York Rangers | Montreal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Henrik Lundqvist |  | Carey Price | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 53-22 | 50-22 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.02 | 2.28 | 16.80% | 84.30% | Team Stats | 2.61 | 2.24 | 16.50% | 83.70% |
The New York Rangers will travel to the Bell Centre to face Montreal tonight in a game between two Eastern Conference powerhouses that have plenty of history over the last few seasons, The Rangers’ undefeated record was tarnished by the Jets on Tuesday in a game that was highlighted by an 0 for 5 performance on the power play by the Blueshirts. New York traded a first round draft pick, a second round draft pick and the young and talented Anthony Duclair (more on him later) at the deadline last year to acquire Keith Yandle. Yandle was picked up in large part to quarterback a chronically underachieving Rangers power play and the results have yet to be seen. Don’t be surprised if we see special teams play a significant role in this game as this is a matchup between two strong defensive teams with elite goaltenders in Henrik Lundqvist and Carey Price. Vegas has this game with the lowest total of the night. While this Rangers team is full of goal scoring ability, and Rick Nash is due to pot his first of the season at some point, tonight may not be the night to target them.
Montreal has started the season undefeated through four games and, perhaps most impressively, all of those wins have come on the road. The Canadiens should have some extra motivation in their home opener tonight, taking on a Rangers squad that ousted them in the Eastern Conference Finals two years ago. Reigning Vezina winner Carey Price has started the year on fire and the opposition will never be in a great spot when facing him. Max Pacioretty has four goals and six points through four games and blue line anchor P.K. Subban has four assists. Despite their recent success, the Canadiens face a tough matchup tonight against a defensively strong Rangers squad that had the best road record in the NHL last year. I expect this game to be a tightly-played and low scoring affair.
Elite Plays
NYR: Rick Nash
MTL: Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban
Secondary Plays
NYR: Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello, Keith Yandle
MTL: Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, Andrei Markov