NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, March 29th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders – 07:00 PM EDT
| Carolina Hurricanes | New York Islanders | ||||||||
 | Cam Ward |  | Thomas Greiss | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 33-28-15 | 40-25-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.43 | 2.66 | 16.70% | 84.70% | Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.53 | 18.40% | 85.70% |
The Hurricanes may have picked up a win in against the Devils on Sunday, but it’s been a rough second half for this hockey club. Not only did they ship off several key contributors at the trade deadline, but they’ve posted just a 10-8-7 record in 25 games since the break. While he’s a bit too inconsistent for my liking, Jeff Skinner has heated up down the stretch to take the team lead with 47 points this season. He’s picked up points in each of the last three games and owns five goals and seven assists in his last 13 games. Victor Rask is his center on the team’s second forward line and the 23-year-old has not only tallied three goals in three previous meetings with the Islanders this season, but has also scored at least one goal in each of the last three games. With Skinner and Rask providing some secondary scoring relief, Jordan Staal has started to heat back up lately. The former second overall draft pick has dished out four assists in those three games against the Islanders and now owns 12 goals, 18 assists and a plus 12 over his last 36 games. Justin Faulk finally returned the Hurricane’s blue-line over the weekend and promptly picked up a power-play assist on Sunday. While he’s a fine option most nights, he logged just 17:49 in ice-time in his last game (down from a season average of 24:17) and the Islander’s curtail some of his power-play explosiveness as they own the second best penalty kill in the NHL this season.
The Islanders have struggled down the stretch, but with the Red Wings and Flyers both nipping at their heals for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, we should see an inspired performance from them tonight in front of their home fans. The Islanders defeated the Hurricanes on Saturday in the first half of this home-and-home series and own an impressive 22-9-4 record this season at the Barclay Center. Their captain John Tavares leads the team with 58 points and has thrived on home ice; posting 13 goals and 20 assists in 33 home games. He’ll be joined by Josh Bailey and Ryan Strome on the top forward line, with Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen both joining him on the Islander’s # 1 power-play unit. Okposo opened the scoring in the game between these two teams on Saturday and has racked up six goals and five assists in 13 games this month. On the blue-line, Nick Leddy has secured the duties as the point-man on the #1 power-play unit and the former first round pick has racked up two goals and 18 assists in 27 games since the All-Star break. He already owns a goal and three assists in the three prior meetings with Carolina this season and can still be found at a very reasonable asking price on most sites across the industry.
Carolina Hurricanes
CF%: 51.6, CP60: 106.7, 5×5 Differential: -21
Elite Options: Jordan Staal
Secondary Options: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Justin Faulk
New York Islanders
CF%: 49.7, CP60: 111.9, 5×5 Differential: 8
Elite Options: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, Nick Leddy
Secondary Options: Frans Nielsen, Anders Lee, Johnny Boychuk
Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins – 07:00 PM EDT
| Buffalo Sabres | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Chad Johnson |  | Marc-Andre Fleury | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 31-34-10 | 42-25-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.36 | 2.61 | 18.50% | 82.00% | Team Stats | 2.81 | 2.43 | 17.80% | 83.60% |
Buffalo managed just 19 shots on goal in their 3-2 loss in Detroit last night and will head to Pittsburgh on short rest to battle a Penguins team that has defeated them in both prior meetings this season. While Buffalo has actually been quiet competitive lately, with Pittsburgh winning eight of their last nine games, this certainly doesn’t seem like the time to deploy them in cash games. To make matters worse, Pittsburgh has allowed just 2.41 goals against per game since the All-Star break and remain highly motivated as they’re sitting just three points behind the New York Rangers (with a game in hand) for second place in the Metropolitan Division. Ryan O’Reilly has looked to be full speed since returning from an injury and leads this team with 53 points in 65 games. He dished out two assists in his only previous meeting with the Penguins and headlines both the top forward line (alongside Evander Kane and Nicolas Deslauriers) as well as the #1 power-play unit. That leaves rookie sensation Jack Eichel to center the second line with fellow where he skates with fellow youngster Sam Reinhart (and Zemgus Girgensons). Reinhart has now found the back of the net in consecutive games and owns 22 goals in his rookie campaign. He’s posted four goals and seven assists in his last 11 games and remains very reasonably priced on most sites. Rasmus Ristolainen is yet another former first round pick blossoming for the Sabres this season. The 21 year old owns a career high 40 points in 76 games and has picked up three assists in the two prior meetings with the Penguins this season. He’s averaging over 25 minutes of ice-time per game and makes for a very intriguing GPP option.
Even without the services of Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins look to be peaking at the right time. They’ve posted an 8-1-0 record over their last nine games to pull themselves firmly into the playoff mix in the Eastern Conference and have a nice matchup awaiting them tonight against a Buffalo team that was in action last night. The Penguins have defeated the Sabres in both prior meetings this season and can pull within one point of the New York Rangers for second place in the Metropolitan Division with a win tonight. Sidney Crosby has been on fire and is one of the premier plays of the evening. He scored his 32nd goal of the season against the Rangers on Sunday and has now racked up a ridiculous 15 goals, 22 assists and a plus 21 in 27 game since the All-Star break. He’ll be flanked by the duo of Chris Kunitz and Patric Hornqvist on the top forward line, with Nick Bonino doing his best Malkin impression as the center of Carl Hagelin and Phil Kessel on the second line. After a rather disappointing start to his Penguins career, Kessel has heated up lately as well with seven points in the last two games. Kris Letang continues to put up huge numbers from the blue-line as he’s posted nine goals and 16 assists in 27 games since the All-Star break and owns 31 points in 32 home games this season. He’s dished out three assists in the two prior meetings with Buffalo this season and is a top-tier option on the blue-line in all formats. Alternatively, both Trevor Daley and Justin Schultz have flashed plenty of offensive upside recently and see a healthy dose of playing time on the second power-play unit. They’re both very reasonably priced and fine value options tonight.
Buffalo Sabres
CF%: 47.6, CP60: 105.2, 5×5 Differential: -27
Elite Options: Ryan O’Reilly
Secondary Options: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane, Rasmus Ristolainen
Pittsburgh Penguins
CF%: 52.8, CP60: 109.8, 5×5 Differential: 24
Elite Options: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang
Secondary Options: Phil Kessel, Carl Hagelin, Chris Kunitz, Trevor Daley
Boston Bruins at New Jersey Devils – 07:00 PM EDT
| Boston Bruins | New Jersey Devils | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Keith Kinkaid | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 40-28-8 | 36-32-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.87 | 2.71 | 20.80% | 82.40% | Team Stats | 2.22 | 2.46 | 20.40% | 82.20% |
The Bruins finally put an end to a five-game losing streak with a 3-1 win in Toronto on Saturday night. They’ll continue a tough road trip tonight as they head to Newark to battle the New Jersey Devils. The Bruins recent skid has put them on the bubble in the Eastern Conference playoff race, so they should be very motivated to pick up two points tonight before back-to-back tough road games in St. Louis and Chicago to close out the week. While New Jersey’s slow pace is a bit of a buzzkill, both of Claude Julien’s top two lines are well worth consideration. Patrice Bergeron scored his 29th goal of the season against the Maple Leafs and leads the team with 63 points in 74 games. He’s joined by Brad Marchand (who has a career high 34 goals) and Lee Stempniak on the top forward line, with David Krejci centering Matt Beleskey and David Pastrnak on the second line. Loui may have been relegated to third line duties, but the talented Swede has picked up assists in each of the last three games and still plenty of playing time alongside Bergeron and Marchand on the top power-play unit. On defense, Torey Krug runs the show from the point of the top power-play unit and has dished out 13 assists in his last 20 games. While he hasn’t scored a single goal since December 5th, his 1.4% shooting percentage is destined for improvement. Alternatively, Zdeno Chara potted his ninth goal of the season over the weekend and has been far more productive on the road this season where he owns six goals, 18 assists and a plus 13 in 38 games.
After back-to-back losses over the weekend, the Devils will return to the Prudential Center for a quick one-game stop at home against the Boston Bruins. New Jersey is not only the slowest paced team in the NHL this season, but they’ve also been easily dismissed by this Bruins team in both prior meetings, leaving very little to like from a fantasy perspective here. Their one offensive bright-spot has been their power-play, which has clicked at an impressive 24.6% clip since the All-Star break. With that in mind, there are some fine GPP options sprinkled throughout this lineup. Kyle Palmieri has emerged as the top scoring threat as he’s posted six goals and seven assists in his last 12 games and has tallied 29 goals on the season. He’s joined on the top power-play unit by Travis Zajac, Joseph Blandisi and Reid Boucher, leaving Adam Henrique to center, among others, Devante Smith-Pelly on the second group. The move to New Jersey has ignited Smith-Pelly as he’s posted seven goals and four assists in 12 games wearing a Devils sweater. On the blue-line, Damon Severson has grabbed the reigns as the point-man on the top power-play unit. While he’s yet to put up big offensive numbers, he has heated up a bit with seven assists over his last 12 games.
Boston Bruins
CF%: 48.8, CP60: 110.7, 5×5 Differential: 7
Elite Options: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Torey Krug
Secondary Options: Loui Eriksson, Lee Stempniak, David Krejci, Zdeno Chara
New Jersey Devils
CF%: 46.5, CP60: 91.4, 5×5 Differential: -19
Elite Options: None
Secondary Options: Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, Devante Smith-Pelly
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers – 07:30 PM EDT
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Florida Panthers | ||||||||
 | Garret Sparks |  | Roberto Luongo | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 27-36-11 | 42-24-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.36 | 2.85 | 15.00% | 80.20% | Team Stats | 2.79 | 2.41 | 17.20% | 80.80% |
After playing last night in Tampa Bay, Toronto makes the short trip south to Florida for tonight’s battle with the Panthers. The Maple Leafs enter action tonight with the worst record in the NHL and shut out by the Lightning in last night’s game. With the Panthers allowing just 2.41 goals against per game this season and having man-handled the Leafs in both prior meetings this season, I’ll be completely avoiding the Maple Leafs in my cash games. Nazem Kadri has been wildly inconsistent throughout the majority of the season, but with 249 SOG (10th most in the NHL) he can approach value on shot volume alone. He’s joined by Milan Michalek and Michael Grabner on what is easily Mike Babcock’s most dangerous forward line. Morgan Rielly has finally grabbed the reigns as the point-man on the Leafs’ #1 power-play unit and his offensive abilities are undeniable. He’s posted two goals and four assists in his last 11 games and is a fine value play on the blue-line in GPPs.
After a pair of enormous back-to-back wins over their division rivals the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning, the Panthers will open up a very winnable three game home stand tonight that could go a long way towards securing them the Atlantic Division title. They’ll face a Toronto team that was in action last night and who they’ve already easily dismissed in both prior meetings this season. With Jiri Hudler and Teddy Purcell added at the trade deadline, Gerard Gallant now has three very capable scoring lines to throw over the boards each night. While the top line of Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov and Jaromir Jagr rightfully deserves plenty of attention, it’s been the trio of Jussi Jokinen, Vincent Trocheck and Reilly Smith supplying the bulk of the offense lately. Those three have combined for 17 goals and 24 assists in 13 games this month and have tallied five goals and three assists in the two prior meetings with Toronto this season. Circling back to Jagr, the ageless wonder has posted 10 goals and 15 assists in 26 games since the All-Star break and sports some dramatic home vs road splits that break in his direction tonight. On defense, both Aaron Ekblad and Brian Campbell should benefit for Toronto’s mediocre 80.2% penalty kill and are both fine options in all formats.
Toronto Maple Leafs
CF%: 51.8, CP60: 113.9, 5×5 Differential: -24
Elite Options: None
Secondary Options: Nazem Kadri, William Nylander, Milan Michalek, Morgan Rielly
Florida Panthers
CF%: 48.2, CP60: 98.9, 5×5 Differential: 23
Elite Options: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jaromir Jagr, Jussi Jokinen, Vincent Trocheck
Secondary Options: Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Jiri Hudler, Aaron Ekblad, Brian Campbell
Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens – 07:30 PM EDT
| Detroit Red Wings | Montreal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Jimmy Howard |  | Mike Condon | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 37-27-11 | 34-36-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.53 | 2.68 | 18.00% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 2.58 | 2.87 | 16.20% | 83.00% |
The Red Wings picked up a much needed victory against Buffalo last night and face another “must win” type game tonight in Montreal as they’re currently sitting one point outside of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. With a 24-year playoff streak on the line for Detroit, there’s plenty of pressure on them to have a strong finish to the season. They’ll invade the Bell Centre tonight to face a free-falling Montreal team that has allowed an ugly 3.27 goals against per game since the All-Star break, so they’ll need to be on your radar. Coach Blashill has several strong scoring lines to choose from, but the trio of Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg and Dylan Larkin look to be the most dangerous. Larkin scored his 22nd goal of the season last night while their captain Henrik Zetterberg chipped in with a pair of assists. Pavel Datsyuk headlines the second forward line alongside impressive rookie Anthony Mantha and Darren Helm while also facilitating things on the #2 power-play. After a somewhat slow start to the season, Mike Green finally looks to be getting comfortable in his new system. The playmaking defenseman has racked up one goal and nine assists in his last 14 games and picked up a pair of assists when these teams met last week.
To call the last 3/4’s of the 2015-16 season a disaster for the Montreal Canadiens would be an understatement This team jumped out of the gates with a 9-0-0 record this season and looked like the team to beat for the opening month of the season. However, since reaching an NHL best record of 18-4-2, this team has fallen its way down to an ugly 16-32-4 record since. While they have played much better at the Bell Centre this season (20-15-3 home record) it’s still pretty tough to get too excited about them from a fantasy perspective at this point in the season. With that said, Detroit has allowed an ugly 3.58 goals against per game during the month of March, so don’t slip over the Habs entirely. Max Pacioretty leads the team with 25 goals and 30 assists in 76 games and has really elevated the game of former third overall pick Alex Galchenyuk. Galchenyuk has racked up 13 goals and three assists in his last 16 games and looks like a fine GPP play particularly on sites that don’t factor plus/minus into their scoring. If the Wings focus too heavily on down those two on the top forward line, Tomas Plekanec can make them pay in a hurry. The talented center already owns a pair of goals against Detroit this season and has posted seven goals and 20 assists in 38 games at the Bell Centre. On defense, the status of P.K. Subban is still up in the air. If he’s able to lace things up, he’s immediately a fine option in all formats if you can afford him. If Subban is unable to play tonight, Andrei Markov will continue to log huge minutes and quarterback the top power-play unit. While he’s been quiet lately, he does have plenty of offensive upside and remains rather inexpensive on most sites.
Detroit Red Wings
CF%: 51.8, CP60: 102.2, 5×5 Differential: -4
Elite Options: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk
Secondary Options: Dylan Larkin, Justin Abdelkader, Mike Green
Montreal Canadiens
CF%: 51.6, CP60: 110.2, 5×5 Differential: -10
Elite Options: Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk, P.K. Subban (if back)
Secondary Options: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Markov