NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, October 27th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers – 07:00 PM EDT
| Buffalo Sabres | Philadelphia Flyers | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Steve Mason | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 23-51 | 33-31 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 1.87 | 3.28 | 13.40% | 75.10% | Team Stats | 2.59 | 2.72 | 23.40% | 77.10% |
The Buffalo Sabres will face the Philadelphia Flyers tonight without one of their best offensive players, Evander Kane. Kane suffered an MCL injury to his knee on Saturday and will miss the next 4-6 weeks. The Sabres have been a vastly improved team to start the year, performing better than expected on the defensive side of the puck. Despite an average of 3.25 goals against per game, Buffalo’s advanced stats speak to far better possession numbers and less dangerous scoring chances allowed than last year. Backup goaltender Chad Johnson has been thrust into a starting role in place of the injured Robin Lehner and hasn’t fair particularly well. The match-up on the road against Philadelphia isn’t great, as the Flyers will utilize the last change to get favorable match-ups on both the defensive and offensive sides of the puck. While Jack Eichel has been impressive, the Sabres attack is too poor and too balanced to target in this spot for fantasy purposes.
The Philadelphia Flyers are 4-2-1 this year, despite their star forwards Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux struggling to start the year. These two forwards form one of the most dynamic duos in the NHL and the Philadelphia offense runs through them, particularly the power-play. Look for Giroux and Voracek to convert tonight against an abysmal Buffalo penalty kill, which has only stopped opponents at 66.7%. Defenseman Mark Streit actually leads the Flyers in points currently and he mans the point on the top power-play unit. Historically, Streit’s scoring highly correlates to that of Giroux and Voracek, so playing all three in tournaments could be a viable strategy. If you are looking for a contrarian play with high upside from the Flyers, consider Wayne Simmonds who plays on the second line but also the top power-play unit.
Elite Plays
BUF: None.
PHI: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit
Secondary Plays
BUF: Jack Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Cody Franson
PHI: Wayne Simmonds, Sam Gagner, Michael Raffl
Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils – 07:00 PM EDT
| Columbus Blue Jackets | New Jersey Devils | ||||||||
 | Sergei Bobrovsky |  | Cory Schneider | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 42-35 | 32-36 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.77 | 3.02 | 21.70% | 80.20% | Team Stats | 2.15 | 2.55 | 19.30% | 80.60% |
The Columbus Blue Jackets won their first game of the season on Saturday, defeating the Colorado Avalanche 4-3. The win was also the first Blue Jacket win for new head coach John Tortorella, who is slowly trying to install a new defensive system in Columbus. Ryan Johansen will miss his 2nd straight game with an illness and Brandon Dubinsky will slide into role centering the top line between Brandon Saad and Nick Foligno. While this line is the most fantasy relevant for the Blue Jackets, it is worth noting that Dubinsky is separated from Saad and Foligno on the power-play, instead playing on the second unit with Boone Jenner and Cam Atkinson. Though many consider the Devils to be a poor team, they have looked impressive winning their last 4 games. Cory Schneider is an elite goaltender and the Devils are allowing under 3 goals against per game. If the Blue Jackets break through in this game, it will likely come on the power-play. The Columbus power-play has been the lone bright spot for the club this season, converting at 22.2% while the New Jersey penalty kill has been quite poor, only stopping the opposition at 72.4%. Look toward top unit power-play quarterback Ryan Murray as a cheap option in a good spot tonight.
The New Jersey Devils host the Columbus Blue Jackets tonight, looking to extend their current four game winning streak. The Devils top line of Michael Cammalleri – Adam Henrique – Lee Stempniak has been absolutely on fire after a slow start to the season, notching 20 points between the three players over the last 4 games. Cammalleri is the best player on this Devils club and the team is going to rely on him to score all year in order for them to win games. While the match-up advantage goes to New Jersey on home ice, I expect Tortorella to have a solid plan to combat the Devils top line tonight, as it is really their only threat. New Jersey’s best opportunities to cash in tonight may come against an atrocious Columbus penalty kill, which is only stopping teams at a 69% rate. It appears Adam Larsson will be manning the point on the Devils top power-play unit. Also, as mentioned above, Cory Schneider has a solid matchup tonight and is always capable of stealing games.
Elite Plays
CBJ: Nick Foligno, Brandon Saad
NJ: Michael Cammalleri, Adam Henrique
Secondary Plays
CBJ: Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Murray
NJ: Cory Schneider, Lee Stempniak, Adam Larsson
Arizona Coyotes at Boston Bruins – 07:00 PM EDT
| Arizona Coyotes | Boston Bruins | ||||||||
 | Mike Smith |  | Tuukka Rask | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 24-50 | 41-27 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.01 | 3.26 | 20.00% | 76.70% | Team Stats | 2.55 | 2.45 | 17.80% | 82.00% |
The Arizona Coyotes will play on the back-to-back tonight against the Bruins in Boston. Arizona scored two power-play goals to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs last night 4-3, including one from Max Domi —- his 4th goal (and 10th point of the season). Oliver Ekman-Larsson had two assists last night and Klas Dahlbeck also notched a goal with a laser of a slap shot, giving him points in 3 straight games. Martin Hanzal left the game in the second period and is doubtful to play tonight. The Coyotes will have some decisions to make heading into tonight’s game as their other top-6 center, Antoine Vermette, is also out with an injury. The Domi – Hanzal – Anthony Duclair line had been Arizona’s best, but Hanzal’s injury forced some line juggling that saw Duclair and Domi split up last night. Despite the victory, despite the young talent, and despite their 5-3-1 record, the Arizona Coyotes remain one of the worst teams in the NHL because of their inability to play defense. The plus match-up with a defensively struggling Boston team (2nd-worst in the league with 4.14 goals against per game) is mitigated by the fact that Arizona is playing on a back-to-back on the road without their top two center icemen.
The Boston Bruins are sporting a 3-3-1 record to start this season, but are 0-3-1 on home ice. Tuukka Rask is an elite NHL netminder, but he has had a very hard time this season, starting the year with a 4.40 GAA and .854 save percentage and just 1 win in 5 starts. Jonas Gustavsson has only started two games, but both were victories in which Gustavsson looked serviceable. Tonight’s matchup with the lowly Coyotes on the back-to-back may be just what Rask needs to get back on track. David Krejci leads the bruins with 12 points in 7 games and Patrice Bergeron is also producing at better than a point-per-game clip with 8 points over 7 games. While the line match-ups for this game are unclear as the Coyotes will likely debut new lines, all of the players in Boston’s top-6 are in play against the Yotes. The Krejci – Loui Eriksson combination is particularly appealing for tournaments as they both play on the top power-play unit.
Elite Plays
ARI: Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson
BOS: David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Loui Eriksson, Torey Krug
Secondary Plays
ARI: Mikkel Boedker, Anthony Duclair, Michael Stone
BOS: Zdeno Chara, David Pastrnak, Brett Connolly
Colorado Avalanche at Florida Panthers – 07:30 PM EDT
| Colorado Avalanche | Florida Panthers | ||||||||
 | Semyon Varlamov |  | Roberto Luongo | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 39-31 | 38-29 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.55 | 2.72 | 15.00% | 84.60% | Team Stats | 2.41 | 2.60 | 16.30% | 80.00% |
The Colorado Avalanche will look to improve on their 2-4-1 record as they travel to Florida tonight to take on the Panthers. The Avalanche are in the conversation for worst team in the league. The Avs have scored a decent number of goals on the backs of star forwards Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon, but are dead least in the league in terms of puck possession. Furthermore, Colorado’s defensive deficiencies (which are extensive) are masked by the stellar goaltending they have gotten from Semyon Varlamov and Reto Berra. While targeting Colorado forwards can be a reasonable GPP strategy in certain match-ups, a road game against defensively stout Florida is not ideal, though Florida does struggle on the penalty kill (76.5%). Colorado is a team you should be more focused on consistently targeting against. The unsustainable goaltending numbers will eventually regress and you will see the Avs allow a plethora of goals en route to a lottery finish this year.
The Florida Panthers were dealt a significantly blow when star center Aleksander Barkov broke his hand last week. Nick Bjugstad has replaced him on the top line between Jonathan Huberdeau and Jaromir Jagr and has acquitted himself well, already potting a goal. Bjugstad has 6 points in 8 games while Jagr has 10 points over that span. This whole top line is firmly in play tonight against the Avalanche as is the top defense pair of Brian Campbell and Aaron Ekblad, who both get power-play exposure. Dave Bolland appears to be making an appearance on the top power-play unit and provides significant value at a cheap price point in that spot. Roberto Luongo has been exceptional to start the season and is in play tonight against the Avalanche.
Elite Plays
COL: None.
FLA: Nick Bjugstad, Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad
Secondary Plays
COL: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon
FLA: Reilly Smith, Dave Bolland, Roberto Luongo
Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings – 07:30 PM EDT
| Carolina Hurricanes | Detroit Red Wings | ||||||||
 | Cam Ward |  | Jimmy Howard | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-41 | 43-25 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.23 | 2.67 | 18.80% | 84.70% | Team Stats | 2.82 | 2.57 | 23.80% | 80.90% |
The Carolina Hurricanes take on the Red Wings in Detroit tonight, having split two meetings already this season. The Hurricanes have outshot the Red Wings 83-39 over those two games, including a 47 shot performance on October 10th. Carolina is once again a solid possession team, but the Canes continue to struggle to put the puck in the net and have a 2-6-0 record as a result. The top line is anchored by Kris Versteeg and Eric Staal, who are joined on the top power-play unit by Justin Faulk. Faulk has emerged as an elite offensive defenseman and leads this Hurricanes team in points with 3 goals and 2 assists over 8 games. Detroit has struggled defensively in their first season without Mike Babcock and their penalty kill, in particular, is quite poor (76.7%). Detroit will have the last change advantage on home ice, though they haven’t demonstrated that they can use that advantage to shut down opposing top players. Carolina may very well dominate possession in this game once again, but it is far from a sure thing that they will pot multiple goals.
The Detroit Red Wings are 4-3-1 on the season, but their winning record is masking the fact that this team is a far cry from the Red Wings of old. The transition to a new system in the post-Babcock era has revealed previously unforeseen deficiencies in Detroit’s defensive game. Nevertheless, the young and highly skilled Red Wings offense continues to produce. Henrik Zetterberg leads the club with 11 points in 8 games and should play his second straight game alongside fellow Swede Gustav Nyquist who plays his best hockey with Zetterberg. Rookie Dylan Larkin continues to produce and now has 7 points in 8 games this year. With an injury sidelining Mike Green, look for Niklas Kronwall to have a much expanded role on the power-play at a reasonable price across the industry. Whoever starts for Detroit in net (Jimmy Howard or Petr Mrazek) is in play due to the high volume of shots Carolina puts on goal.
Elite Plays
CAR: Justin Faulk, Eric Staal
DET: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist
Secondary Plays
CAR: Kris Versteeg, Jeff Skinner
DET: Niklas Kronwall, Justin Abdelkader, Tomas Tatar, Dylan Larkin