The GPP Scene: Year 3, Week 3

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-06-12 15:09:11

Welcome back to The GPP Scene! If you are unfamiliar with this series, this is an attempt to break down my own tournament entries to determine if we can figure out an “optimal” strategy for tournament play. Here’s the scoop: I will enter the $3 DraftKings “Slider” GPP (3 entry max) five days a week with three different teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

Team #1 – Two-team stacks with 4 hitters from each team, finished off by whatever pitchers I like best that fit within my remaining cap.

Team #2 – A 5-man stack from one team surrounded by plays that I like at pitcher and with the other 3 hitters.

Team #3 – The cheapest plays that I like at pitcher surrounded by a team of elite hitters.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the third week of results! I am using “week” loosely here because I have a very bad habit of forgetting to enter this tournament before it fills. I’m working on that…

THURSDAY, MAY 26TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 112.75 POINTS

Team #1 – I stacked both sides of the Baltimore/Houston game, and it played to a 4-2 final score. George Springer was the only offensive highlight of the game, as he cracked a pair of home runs for the Astros. Manny Machado managed 11 points, but the other six hitters combined for just eight points. That was enough to hold back this squad, even though Joe Ross and Matt Wisler managed a respectable 38 fantasy points. On a surprising note, Matt Wisler was 58% owned! Matt Wisler! It was a short slate, and the Braves were taking on the Phillies. I will venture to guess that Wisler won’t be 58% owned for the rest of the season.

• FINISH: 85.25 PTS / 6593 OF 9583 FOR $0.

Team #2 – This was a short slate for the night games, and I employed a bit of a hedging strategy here. I used the Red Sox as my five man stack this evening, while rostering opposing pitcher Jon Gray as a cheap choice on Team #3. It worked out better for Team #3 than Team #2, as Gray allowed a two-run home run to David Ortiz in the first inning and nothing after that. As you will see with many of the days in this article, it was a low-scoring slate. This was primarily because most of the Boston hitters were 20-40% owned, and they disappointed outside of Ortiz. With Boston scoring just two runs, it was a mediocre performance for Team #2.

• FINISH: 87.20 PTS / 6264 OF 9583 FOR $0.

Team #3 – We have some momentum for Team #3! Jon Gray and Mike Leake both had respectable performances as cheap pitching choices, combining for 40 fantasy points. George Springer hit a pair of home runs. Ryan Braun hit a home run. Trevor Story hit a home run. Every single hitter that I had on this team put up at least some sort of fantasy point total. That is a recipe for success, especially when the cheap pitchers perform. Hopefully this will be a nice momentum boost for this strategy, which I have been very bearish on through the first two weeks.

• FINISH: 119.65 PTS / 1204 OF 9583 FOR $6.

SATURDAY, MAY 28TH (EARLY GAMES)

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 125.90 POINTS

Team #1 – I spent up for my two stacks today, with the Giants playing at Coors Field and the Reds playing against homer-prone Chase Anderson and the Brewers. This worked out very well, as the Giants scored ten runs and the Reds scored seven. The nature of this roster forced me to go fairly cheap at pitcher in a strategy that somewhat overlaps with Team #3. Matt Moore pitched well against the Yankees, earning a victory and 20 fantasy points. The scuffling Yordano Ventura, on the other hand, was a very poor choice — even against the struggling White Sox. Still, every single one of my hitters put up some type of fantasy points, and Buster Posey led the way with a whopping 36 point day. This was more than enough to lead this team to a nice cash.

• FINISH: 135.75 PTS / 234 OF 1916 FOR $8.

Team #2 – The wind was blowing out at Wrigley Field, so I stacked five Cubs left-handed bats against Jerad Eickhoff and the Phillies. It was a great combination, as Eickhoff generally struggled with left-handed batters. The Cubs started off with three runs in the first two innings, and it was kick-started by a leadoff home run from Dexter Fowler. This was going to be a great decision! Unfortunately, the Cubs scored just one run after that, and my pitchers combined for just 14 points as Michael Pineda got shelled by the free-swinging Rays and Wei-Yin Chen was less than stellar even against the woeful Braves. Despite a great start, this team finished near the back of the pack.

• FINISH: 63.70 PTS / 1778 OF 1916 FOR $0.

Team #3 – This was not a good slate for pitching, as there were plenty of offensive fireworks on display. This was good news for the expensive hitters on Team #3, as Matt Duffy, Francisco Lindor, Dexter Fowler, and Jonathan Lucroy all had 14 or more fantasy points. The bad news is that the pitchers were terrible, as I got only 10 points from Carlos Rodon and one point from Marcus Stroman. As I have written before with Team #3, sometimes the cheap pitchers just do so bad to where you can’t overcome the bad performances no matter what you roster for hitters. I can’t be too hard on this strategy this week, however, as this strategy was the best performer of the week.

• FINISH: 100.25 PTS / 1040 OF 1916 FOR $0.

SUNDAY, MAY 29TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 122.50 POINTS

Team #1 – My mini-stacks were the Orioles (against Mike Clevinger) and the Reds left-handed bats (against Jimmy Nelson). Matt Wieters had just three points, Joey Votto got shut out, Manny Machado had just five points, and nobody really went off. Even though the teams that I stacked scored a respectable six and four runs, I didn’t have the best chunk of production from the two teams, and this squad came up well short. My pitchers combined for just 23 points, too, so this team was just a big miss in the grand scheme of things.

• FINISH: 78.45 PTS / 3452 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Team #2 – They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. What on earth did I expect by stacking the Phillies with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field after it failed the day before with the high-powered Cubs? Needless to say, it didn’t work out as the Phillies got dominated by John Lackey a day after getting shut down by Kyle Hendricks. I can even throw in another play on words with the old “fool me once, fool me twice” analogy. This was not a smart choice, even though it allowed me to get both Chris Sale and Steven Strasburg as my pitching selections.

• FINISH: 82.05 PTS / 3313 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Team #3 – 19 points for Jonathan Lucroy. 17 points for Jason Kipnis. 19 points for Mookie Betts. 19 points for Mike Trout. 11 points for Mark Trumbo. How good is this team going to be?!? Then the pitchers came into play. Francisco Liriano and Michael Wacha combined for just 26 points in their road starts against the Rangers and Nationals, and they certainly weren’t the best choices here. The bats were enough to carry this team to a solid finish, but this could have been a candidate for a big day if not for the pitchers. Still, the momentum is going strong for Team #3 this week!

• FINISH: 124.00 PTS / 725 OF 3833 FOR $6.

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 1ST (EARLY GAMES)

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 77.90 POINTS

Team #1 – Because I have a bad habit of forgetting to enter this tournament, I decided to play a four-game early slate on Wednesday. This could possibly be the lowest-scoring slate I have ever seen, with a cash line cutoff of 77.90 points. The chalk offenses were the Cardinals against Zach Davies and the Mets against Miguel Gonzalez, and those were the two teams I mini-stacked on Team #1. The Cardinals scored just one run, and that was on a pinch-hit home run by Brandon Moss. The Mets scored just one run in thirteen innings, and that was on an RBI single by Rene Rivera. Now you can see why the slate was such a low-scoring one. I went full chalk with this squad, using the 76% owned Jacob deGrom and the 55% owned Jaime Garcia as my pitchers. deGrom pitched well with almost 30 fantasy points, but Garcia was underwhelming with just 8.45 points on the day. In other words, the chalk disappointed on this slate.

• FINISH: 63.00 PTS / 1082 OF 1916 FOR $0.

Team #2 – I did like the Mets offense on this day, so I used them as my five-man stack as well. That didn’t work. I did swap Garcia for Hamels as a pitching choice on this team, which netted me an extra six points as Hamels had 14 points to Garcia’s eight. It still wasn’t enough given the struggles from the Mets offense. In addition, my additional three hitters (Josh Phegley, Byung Ho Park, and Matt Carpenter) combined for just two points. Swing and a miss.

• FINISH: 71.90 PTS / 629 OF 1916 FOR $0.

Team #3 – It didn’t take much to cash on this slate, and I was able to keep up some momentum for Team #3. Trevor Bauer and Sean Manaea were both 4% owned, and they combined for 43 points. This was more than the highly-owned, highly-priced combination of deGrom and Garcia that you saw in Team #1. Throw in a home run from Mike Napoli and eight points from Ryan Braun, and this team was on its way to a cash — with a whopping 83 fantasy point total. What a weird slate this was. I am glad I researched this slate for this article, as I also netted a third place finish in the $27 Payoff Pitch for a $3,000 payday. It was a nice day!

• FINISH: 83.25 PTS / 235 OF 1916 FOR $8.

SATURDAY, JUNE 4TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 110.70 POINTS

Team #1 – The two mini-stacks of choice were the Mariners right-handed bats (against Martin Perez) and the Yankees (against Tyler Wilson). In order to fit Clayton Kershaw as one of the pitchers on this team, I used the super cheap Andrew Cashner as my #2 pitcher as he faced off against the Rockies in Petco Park. The pitching choices did not work out, as Cashner put up less than ten points while Kershaw didn’t come close to paying off his $14,100 salary tag. However, continuing the theme of this week, this was a very low-scoring slate. The good news is that the stacks performed well. The Yankees scored eight runs with every single one of their starters registering at least one hit. The Mariners only scored four, but I had the majority of the production within my four choices. Chris Iannetta had a pair of doubles, Nelson Cruz hit a home run, and Dae Ho Lee and Franklin Gutierrez chipped in with six and seven points, respectively. This was enough to take this team to cash land.

• FINISH: 116.05 PTS / 536 OF 3833 FOR $6.

Team #2 – My five man stack was the Dodgers against Bud Norris and the Braves. Through seven innings, the Dodgers had just one run. They did make some noise with three runs in the eighth, and my squad did have the three best performers in Justin Turner, Trayce Thompson and Joc Pederson. Thompson and Peterson didn’t exactly knock the cover off the ball, but they still managed respectable performances. In fact, Thompson didn’t even record a hit. Their points came primarily because they stole a combined four bases between them. Despite these reasonable performances, the pitching held this team down thanks to the aforementioned disappointing total from Kershaw to go along with a 2.65 total from Chad Bettis against the Padres.

• FINISH: 98.15 PTS / 1503 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Team #3 – I was unable to keep the momentum going for Team #3. The cheap pitching choices were Chad Bettis and Nathan Karns, and they combined for -0.15 points. It’s going to be really hard to cash in a GPP when your two pitchers get you negative points in total. Throw in zero points from Buster Posey, zero points from Chris Davis, three points from Manny Machado, and two points from Corey Seager, and you have the worst roster I have put together to this point in the series. It was a good run for Team #3 this week… until the last day.

• FINISH: 56.85 PTS / 3610 OF 3833 FOR $0.

FINAL RESULTS – THROUGH WEEK 3

My Analysis

Well, the nature of the GPP game got me this week. I was able to put together some decent squads, fielding one decent team out of three every day. The issue? None of the rosters generated a cash for double-digit dollars. Since I am putting in $9 of entries every day, cashes of $6 or $8 aren’t good enough to break even. These high-variance strategies are definitely going to require a big hit at some point in order to make this season of The GPP Scene a profitable one. In terms of team performance, it was a great week for Team #3 and a terrible week for Team #2, which didn’t have a single cash. I didn’t do a great job with the team stack choices this week! I shall keep grinding away.

Sunday evening update: I am already guaranteed that things are going to look much, much better next week!

As always, thanks for reading! Most of all, I hope this helps YOU as you formulate your tournament strategies. Good luck out there!