The GPP Scene: Year 3, Week 4

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-06-20 01:06:28

Welcome back to The GPP Scene! If you are unfamiliar with this series, this is an attempt to break down my own tournament entries to determine if we can figure out an “optimal” strategy for tournament play. Here’s the scoop: I will enter the $3 DraftKings “Slider” GPP (3 entry max) five days a week with three different teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

Team #1 – Two-team stacks with 4 hitters from each team, finished off by whatever pitchers I like best that fit within my remaining cap.

Team #2 – A 5-man stack from one team surrounded by plays that I like at pitcher and with the other 3 hitters.

Team #3 – The cheapest plays that I like at pitcher surrounded by a team of elite hitters.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the fourth week of results, and it’s a good one!

SUNDAY, JUNE 5TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 136.30 POINTS

There are certain days in DFS when you just hit the right combinations, and this was one of those days for me. It’s a lot of fun when that happens!

Team #1 – I constructed this roster much differently than the others I put together for the day, and it was a bad idea. Banking on some regression from C.C. Sabathia, I mini-stacked both sides of the Orioles/Yankees game. It ended up with a 3-1 score, and it wasn’t the right play on a high scoring day. Not even two good pitching performances were enough to save this one. Let’s move along to the better stuff!

• FINISH: 115.50 PTS / 1633 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Team #2 – What happens when a bad pitcher faces a bad offense? I sided with the Phillies offense against Wily Peralta, and it turned out to be the right decision. Philadelphia put up eight runs on the day, and all five hitters that I chose from that team scored at least 10 fantasy points. Odubel Herrera led the way with 21 fantasy points. I chose three cheap hitters to go along with the stack, and Jordy Mercer (against a lefty), Tyler Holt, and Justin Upton all managed 10+ fantasy points as well. It’s a rare case when you get double-digit fantasy points from every single hitter on your roster. That’s not all, though. Because the Phillies bats were cheap, and I used cheap additional hitters, I was able to fit Jose Fernandez and Corey Kluber as my pitchers. 72 fantasy points later, everything had come together for a big finish.

You can find a screenshot of the roster here

• FINISH: 190.45 PTS / 7 OF 3833 FOR $125.

Team #3 – I didn’t figure that the “cheap pitcher” route would work out today, especially since Fernandez and Kluber combined for 72 points. However, I was pleasantly surprised at the end of the day. Even though I only got 13 points from Gerrit Cole and 17 points from Matt Harvey, the expensive bats went off. Daniel Murphy managed 28, Wilson Ramos garnered 24, and Jay Bruce chipped in with 24 of his own. Throw in a few more double-digit performances, and this squad did a nice job of climbing the leaderboard. It could have been towards the top had my pitching choices been a little better. All in all, I am not going to complain about a great day, though! This was fun.

• FINISH: 153.15 PTS / 276 OF 3833 FOR $8.

MONDAY, JUNE 6TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 134.25 POINTS

I didn’t get into the main Slider contest today, but it filled very early in the day, so DraftKings added a second one that I got in. That’s why the field size is smaller than normal on this one.

Team #1 – The mini stacks of choice were the Tigers (against J.A. Happ) and the Rangers (against Mike Fiers). This worked like a charm, as the Tigers scored eleven runs while the Rangers put up six. The only mistake that I made was not including Justin Upton as part of my Tigers stack, as he had a huge night. However, all of my hitters had at least five points, and six of the eight were in double figures. A 31 point performance from Chris Archer helped a lot, and the only drawback was a mediocre performance from Masahiro Tanaka against the Angels. All in all, this team had enough teeth to find its way into the money.

• FINISH: 138.65 PTS / 118 OF 766 FOR $6.

Team #2 – My five-man stack was the right-handed Orioles bats as they faced off against Danny Duffy and the Royals. Baltimore scored just four runs on the night, so this team was playing from behind. I did get a good showing from Jon Lester (37.4 fantasy points) and some points from my additional three hitters outside of the Orioles, but this squad came up just short of the cash line.

• FINISH: 130.20 PTS / 193 OF 766 FOR $0.

Team #3 – The highest priced pitchers all did well tonight, as Lester (on Team #2) put up 37 points and Archer (on Team #1) put up 31, so this squad was already in trouble. The cheap guys that I chose were Mike Bolsinger and Matt Shoemaker, and they combined for just 20 points. On a high-scoring night that featured solid performances from some chalky options, there was no overcoming those performances. The bats were good here — 14 points for Matt Wieters, 29 points for Jose Altuve, 17 points for Mark Trumbo, and some other decent performances — but it wasn’t enough to overcome the pitching woes.

• FINISH: 116.05 PTS / 348 OF 766 FOR $0.

TUESDAY, JUNE 7TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 118.50 POINTS

Team #1 – One of my mini stacks was the Nationals, and they scored ten runs against the White Sox while handing Mat Latos a one-way ticket to the unemployment line. That’s where the good news ended. The other stack was the Indians, and they scored just one run against Wade Miley. I was forced to go a little cheaper with the pitchers than I usually do, and it came back to bite with just four points from Joe Ross and 15 from Colin Rea. By the end of the night, this team was only good enough for a dumpster.

• FINISH: 68.55 PTS / 6814 OF 7666 FOR $0.

Team #2 – I liked the odds of getting the A’s bats at a very low ownership percentage against Zach Davies, and I got my wish there. Yonder Alonso was 0.2% owned. Jed Lowrie was 0.9% owned. Billy Burns was 0.3% owned. Coco Crisp was 0.9% owned. Stephen Vogt was a whopping 5.3% owned. In the end, the joke was on me as Davies carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning. A complete game shutout from Zack Greinke wasn’t enough to salvage the mess that the Oakland bats created. In fact, I’m surprised this team finished as high as it did.

• FINISH: 101.75 PTS / 3292 OF 7666 FOR $0.

Team #3 – This squad got good-but-not-great performances from Michael Pineda and Julio Urias, as they each scored 18 fantasy points on the night. Continuing the theme, the bats were also good-but-not-great. Outside of a 24 point night from Joey Votto, none of the other bats topped 12 fantasy points. The “good-but-not-great” will earn you some cash in a double-up game, but it won’t go anywhere in a GPP. This squad predictably finished in the middle of the pack, and this was my worst day of an otherwise good week.

• FINISH: 107.75 PTS / 2618 OF 7666 FOR $0.

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 8TH (EARLY GAMES)

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 112.30 POINTS

Team #1 – This was a fun little four-game early slate, and I mini-stacked the two chalk offenses in the Cubs (against Vincent Velasquez) and the Tigers (against R.A. Dickey). I was hesitant about stacking against Velasquez, who is a good pitcher, but he left the game early with an injury. The Cubs proceeded to put up eight runs, but the Tigers were held to just two. On a positive note, I did have Nick Castellanos as one of my four Tigers, and he was responsible for both runs with a two-run home run in the first inning. This team still had a chance to cash, but Jake Odorizzi and Drew Pomeranz put up somewhat disappointing performances on the mound. As a result, this team fell about ten points short of the cash line.

• FINISH: 101.70 PTS / 610 OF 1916 FOR $0.

Team #2 – The five-man stack that a chose was a more under-owned stack in the Blue Jays against Jordan Zimmermann. This worked out well, as Toronto knocked him around and scored seven runs on the day. Using Justin Smoak instead of Edwin Encarnacion at first base was big, as Smoak had a double and a two-run home run on the day. Josh Donaldson was the top performing hitter on the early slate with 33 fantasy points. I also used Julio Teheran as one of my pitchers, and he put up eight solid innings and earned a win and 30 fantasy points in the process. I was surprised that Teheran was only 19% owned against a San Diego squad that really struggles against RHP and has a lot of right-handed hitters, but I will take it. This was the second best finish of the week and was good for $10.

• FINISH: 131.65 PTS / 109 OF 1916 FOR $10.

Team #3 – Archie Bradley only put up 9.35 fantasy points and Vincent Velasquez left the game after facing one batter, so he only managed 0.75 fantasy points. It’s pretty hard to cash in a GPP when your pitchers total just ten points. This was a big swing and a miss that sometimes happens with the strategy of Team #3.

• FINISH: 80.10 PTS / 1176 OF 1916 FOR $0.

THURSDAY, JUNE 9TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 111.05 POINTS

Team #1 – Both the Cardinals and Yankees were relatively chalk squads after having scored 12 runs each the night before, so I decided to stack them together. Both squads were in good matchups once again, as the Cardinals faced off against Brandon Finnegan and the Yankees matched up with Jhoulys Chacin. The results were average at best — the Yankees put up six runs, but the Cardinals only put up three. In addition, I didn’t have the right combination of players from the two teams, as none of my hitters had more than 11 fantasy points. Throw in mediocre performances from my pitchers, who totaled just 24 points, and you have a pretty bad squad here.

• FINISH: 72.95 PTS / 9301 OF 11500 FOR $0.

Team #2 – My five man stack was the Mariners against the over-performing Josh Tomlin. The final result doesn’t look great, as the Mariners only scored three runs. However, they did manage 13 hits, and I had the majority of the production on my roster here. Robinson Cano clocked a pair of solo home runs, and Adam Lind hit a solo shot. That accounted for all three of the runs, and I did have both of them on this squad. This was also the night where the pitching options were dismal, so the 39 points that I got from Gio Gonzalez and Nathan Karns were well above the field average for the day (primarily because Marcus Stroman was 30% owned and finished with two points). This team had enough juice for a solid finish by the end of the night.

• FINISH: 127.10 PTS / 695 OF 11500 FOR $8.

Team #3 – The cheap pitching choices were Marcus Stroman (ugh) and Adam Wainwright (yay). Stroman’s two points were a major drag, and the bats did not do enough to make up for it. Jonathan Lucroy, Jonathan Villar, and Bryce Harper combined to reach base just once, and this roster simply had too many duds to reach the cash zone. In addition, none of my hitters had massive performances, as nobody topped 14 fantasy points on the day.

• FINISH: 88.10 PTS / 6532 OF 11500 FOR $0.

FINAL RESULTS – THROUGH WEEK 4

My Analysis

The old saying that “patience is a virtue” has finally paid off. This was easily my best week of the season, and it shows in the results above. Every team managed at least one cash, and Team #2 cashed three times, including a seventh place finish on Sunday. Obviously, given the top-heavy nature of GPP games, you need to hit a top score to make the investment worthwhile. I’ll definitely take that $125 score, and the results in the table above certainly look a lot better now. It’s always nice to see green instead of red.

It is no surprise to me that Team #2 has taken the reins as the top squad, as stacking has always been my preferred strategy. It will be interesting to see if the disparity in results between the three strategies continues to grow as the season wears on. Check back next weekend to see how things are going!

As always, thanks for reading!