10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 17th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Thursday, August 17th.
1. After recording eight strikeouts against Cleveland in his last start, Chris Archer has fanned 8+ batters in 50 of his first 151 starts in MLB; that’s tied with Tom Seaver for 15th-most such games in MLB history. Near double-digits in strikeouts is basically what we’ve come to expect against Archer, and against Toronto, who is roughly league average in strikeouts against righties (20.5% for the year), that feels like what we should expect on Thursday. But he’s certainly not a slam dunk. Chief among the factors working against Archer as the top cash game play are his drastic home/road splits; since 2016, he has a hefty 4.95 ERA outside of pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field (and to illustrate how bad that is, he’s sandwiched between Ricky Nolasco and Mike Foltynewicz), and he gets a major park downgrade going to the Rogers Centre. It’s also worrisome that, for a guy most consider “elite,” Archer always seems to give up a few runs; the last scoreless game he pitched was way back on May 10th. Despite these red flags, Archer is one of the top two cash game options on the early slate. The other is…
2. Carlos Carrasco, who continues to be a far more effective pitcher when outside of hitter-friendly Progressive Field. Here is the complete list of qualified pitchers, who, since 2015, have better xFIP marks on the road than Carrasco’s 2.98: Clayton Kershaw (2.44) and Chris Sale (2.94). Carrasco feels a bit safer than Archer, especially factoring in that Minnesota’s two most dangerous bats (Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano) are right-handed. This year, Carrasco has carved up righties to the tune of a .266 wOBA and 29.6% strikeout rate while allowing just 27.7% hard hits. Sure, it’s not like neutralizing Sano and Dozier are the only concern for Carrasco; Minnesota will surely throw out five or six left-handed bats. But Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, and Jorge Polanco aren’t enough to scare me off a pitcher who, despite his tendency to get hit hard occasionally, is one of the better pitchers in MLB. If choosing between Archer and Carrasco, I slightly prefer Carrasco.
3. In 155 2/3 innings pitched this year, Jeff Samardzija has a 3.6% walk rate in 2017; the last Giants pitcher with a lower walk rate with minimum of 155 innings pitched was not Madison Bumgarner, or Johnny Cueto. It was Juan Marichal, way back in 1966. Samardzija has certainly had his ups and downs this year, recording 8+ strikeouts a career-high 11 times while also allowing five or more earned runs one out of every four times he takes the hill (six starts of 5+ ER in 24 games started). However, his ability to limit the free passes is the one consistent trait he’s shown. It should benefit him in a start at home against the light-hitting Phillies, who rank in the bottom six in MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ for the year against right-handed pitching. Those factors, coupled with his being underpriced across the industry ($8,900 at FD, $9,300 at DK) for the matchup, makes Samardzija an elite cash game play on Thursday’s main slate.
4. Since June 22nd, only three pitchers have a 50.0%+ ground ball rate and a 29.0%+ strikeout rate – James Paxton, Jimmy Nelson, and Aaron Nola. Of that group, Nola’s 1.71 ERA is by far the lowest (Paxton is at 2.15, Nelson is at 4.33). Nola has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball as of late, and now he gets a massive park upgrade against the Giants, who rank 29th or worse in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against righties. The Giants have the reputation of a team that doesn’t offer much strikeout upside to opposing pitchers (and deservedly so – their 19.3% K rate against RHP for the year is fourth-best in MLB). But the Giants’ projected lineup, which has added the high strikeouts of Jarrett Parker (41.7% vs. RHP), Kelby Tomlinson (25.4%), and Pablo Sandoval (22.4%), has a 22.3% strikeout rate against righties on the year, per PlateIQ. While Nola’s price tag at DraftKings ($12,000) is a little exorbitant, he makes a lot more sense at a reasonable $9,900 at FanDuel.
5. Jhoulys Chacin has pitched 17 ⅓ more innings at home than on the road this year (77 ⅓ at home, 60 away), and he’s allowed 30 fewer earned runs at home. His home/road splits this late into the season are some of the crazier ones you’ll see (1.86 ERA at home, 6.90 away), and while those two numbers should realistically be much closer, it makes sense that he’s better at PetCo Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in MLB. His advanced numbers – namely the 4.33 xFIP, which is virtually identical to his 4.41 xFIP on the road – says that these splits may be a little overstated. However, Chacin has been excellent at limiting hard contact at home (just 26.5% hard hits), which doesn’t factor into his xFIP. His matchup with the Nationals is brutal, as they rank in the top four in MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against righties (although, to be fair, those numbers were compiled with Bryce Harper smashing righties in the middle of the lineup). But Chacin is excellent against righties (.257 wOBA, 22.7% K rate, 23.4% hard hits), so if Washington rolls out a very right-handed lineup, Chacin makes sense as an SP2 at two-pitcher sites.
6. Since the All-Star break, here is the complete list of players with a higher hard hit rate than Kyle Schwarber 51.2% mark: Joey Gallo (51.9%). Schwarber is making hard contact more often than than Aaron Judge, than Nelson Cruz, even than Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, he’s also striking out at a rate that makes Joey Gallo look like Joey Votto, in terms of contact. Schwarber’s 40.2% strikeout rate in the second half (up from 28.2% in the first half) would typically mean that he’s more of a tournament play. But batting second in a potent Cubs lineup, with heavy winds blowing out, Schwarber (like most of the Cubs’ bats) is a top priority, even in cash games if you’re playing the early slate.
7. Joey Gallo has 14 hits in the month of August; 10 of them have been home runs. That may not be all that surprising, because homering is sort of Gallo’s thing. But a .681 ISO (which Gallo has in August) is almost unbelievable, even in a small sample. After homering again last night, Gallo has now homered in three straight and has another game in the Texas heat against White Sox righty Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez is a talented young arm, and we don’t have enough data on him to know how he’ll fare at the major league level. But these days, anytime Gallo has the platoon advantage at home, he’s automatically one of the top tournament plays on the slate.
8. Since 2015, Matt Carpenter ranks seventh in ISO (.271) and fifth in on-base percentage (.425) against ground ball pitchers. Carpenter’s high fly ball rate (50.2% this year against right-handed batters) makes him ideally suited for pitchers who throw down in the zone. Pittsburgh’s Jameson Taillon has a solid 53.4% ground ball rate against lefties, but his tendency to keep the ball down could actually work in Carpenter’s favor. To be clear, Taillon is certainly not a pitcher we go out of our way to target, which means that Carpenter is not an optimal play for cash games. However, at likely low ownership in tournaments, he makes sense as a differentiation play.
9. Despite only making one start in 2016, Tyson Ross is tied for the fifth-most steals allowed of any pitcher since 2014, with 75, trailing only Jon Lester (101), Jake Arrieta (91), Ubaldo Jimenez (84), Gerrit Cole (76). The player he’s tied with? Jimmy Nelson, whose inability to hold runners often discussed in DFS circles. But here’s the thing: while it’s taken Nelson 571 1/3 innings to allow those 75 steals, Ross has allowed 75 in over 135 fewer innings (435 1/3 IP since 2014). In other words, when White Sox batters reach base on Thursday, it won’t be difficult for them to swipe a bag or two. Unfortunately, with just 41 steals on the year (third-fewest in MLB), the White Sox are not a team that runs often. However, there are a few White Sox hitters with speed who get an added boost: Leury Garcia leads the team with eight steals (even though he’s also been caught five times – yikes), Tim Anderson is a known speedster, and Yoan Moncada had 17 steals at Triple-A Charlotte this year before his promotion.
10. Since being called up to the majors on June 6th, Jose Pirela has a .364 wOBA, which ranks higher than Andrew Benintendi (.363), Yulieski Gurriel (.358), and Brian Dozier (.358). He has a .227 ISO, which ranks higher than Ryan Zimmerman (.224), Logan Morrison (.223), and Josh Donaldson (.221). And he has a 126 wRC+, which ranks higher wRC+ than Jake Lamb (118), Kyle Seager (116), and Buster Posey (113). Listen – Pirela is not an elite hitter. But he’s been extremely effective hitting for a poor San Diego team, and he’s in a winnable matchup with Edwin Jackson (.368 wOBA, 15.1% K rate vs. RHB this year). And here’s the real selling point: he’s dirt cheap, particularly at DraftKings, where’s he’s underpriced at $3,000. Nobody likes rostering guys like Pirela, but they provide an avenue to getting the bats you really do want in your lineup.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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