MLB GPP Plays: Friday, May 27th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals – Until recently Scherzer had been flip-flopping good starts with bad starts. However, he has been quite dominant in his last three outings, striking out 38 batters while allowing only six earned runs in just over 23 innings pitched. This includes a complete game in which he whiffed 20 Detroit Tigers, tying him with Kerry Wood, Roger Clemens (who did it twice) and Randy Johnson for the most strikeouts ever recorded in one game. That stat alone shows you his massive upside. With his high salary and a less then appealing matchup, Scherzer should be highly under-owned in large field tournaments.
Adam Conley, Miami Marlins – Adam Conley has been a very effective pitcher for the Miami Marlins this season. The 26-year-old lefty has kept right-handed hitters in check this year (.210 BAA, .280 wOBA) while producing a solid strikeout rate (8.50 K/9). The Atlanta Braves have zero punch when it comes to offense, especially when they are facing a southpaw. The Braves are dead last in almost every single offensive category versus left-handed pitching and they are striking out over 23% of the time.
Let me give you an even better idea of how pathetic this Braves offense is – Atlanta is ranked 30th (otherwise known as last) in homeruns with just 19, the Philadelphia Phillies are ranked 29th with 36 home runs. Yes, they are 17 homers behind the next worst team, and aside from the Phillies, every other team in baseball has hit twice as many long-balls.
The Braves are also ranked 30th in runs scored and RBIs as well, which should come as no surprise. Atlanta has been better of late, but this is still the worst offense in baseball. Roster Adam Conley with confidence in your tournament play tonight.
Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks – The San Diego Padres are not a good offense to say the least. The Padres were supposed to be decent versus left-handed pitching, but that has not been the case in 2016, as they are sitting in the bottom-third of the league in most offensive categories, including wOBA and wRC+. The Friars are also striking out 26.5% of the time, which is the third-most in Major League Baseball. Robbie Ray has had control issues this season (4.56 BB/9) but he has also produced a terrific strikeout rate (9.89 K/9). If Ray can limit the walks in this one, he should be able to cruise through this San Diego lineup.
Other Pitchers to Target – Felix Hernandez, Chris Archer, Masahiro Tanaka, Jose Urias, Matt Shoemaker
CATCHER
Welington Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks – With all eyes on Coors Field, it is possible Welington Castillo flies under the radar this evening. Christian Friedrich is a below average pitcher and right-handed batters have had a lot of success against him at the Major League level (career .387 wOBA VS RHB). The Beef Welington has crushed left-handed pitching in 2016 (.463 wOBA) and I see a big game in his future.
Derek Norris, San Diego Padres – Robbie Ray continues to struggle with command (4.56 BB/9) and right-handed batters own a hard hit rate of 41% against him along with a .364 wOBA. Norris has always hit lefties well and he has home run upside at a discounted price.
Other Catchers to Target – Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy, Victor Martinez (where eligible), Yan Gomes Matt Wieters, Chris Iannetta
FIRST BASE
David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox – It is rare we get David Ortiz low owned on a night where he is facing a right-handed pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but that could be the case tonight. I am a big fan of Aaron Sanchez and I will not be stacking the Boston Red Sox tonight, but as a one-off play, I love Big Papi. Ortiz is having an incredible season and he continues to destroy right-handed pitching (.346 BA, .484 wOBA).
Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays – Joe Kelly is a very hittable pitcher to say the least. Hitters from both sides of the plate have hit him hard in 2016, but ideally we want to attack him with left-handed batters. Smoak is much better hitter from the left side of the plate and he is an inexpensive source of power at first base.
Other First Basemen to Target – Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Davis, Brandon Belt, Carlos Santana, Mark Reynolds, Justin Bour
SECOND BASE
Joe Panik, San Francisco Giants – Tyler Chatwood has pitched well on the road this season (0.53ERA, .192 BAA), but pitching at home has been a different story. The 26-year-old righty has been hit hard in Coors Field throughout his Major League tenure (.362 wOBA) and I expect more of the same tonight. Because of his lack of power, Joe Panik tends to get overlooked in large field tournaments. Hitting near the top of the San Francisco Giants order, Panik could easily get five at-bats and produce a multi- hit/run/RBI game.
Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians – Mike Wright has done a decent job for the Baltimore Orioles and he has shut down righties so far this season (.198 BAA, .269 wOBA), but lefties continue to give him fits (.362 BAA, .434 wOBA). Say hello to my little friend (Jason Kipnis) and his .362 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this season.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Ian Kinsler, Derek Dietrich, Jean Segura, DJ LeMahieu, Brandon Phillips, Devon Travis, Jonathan Schoop
THIRD BASE
Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays – Thanks to his slump, we get Josh Donaldson at a discount tonight, even though he is facing a very hittable pitcher at the Rogers Centre. Donaldson is too talented to struggle for much longer and he is about to explode with a monster game. I should also note that the Blue Jays’ third baseman has lit up Joe Kelly in his career (.529 BA in 17 ABs).
Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers – I am not going out of my way to pick on Jonathon Niese tonight, but he is pitching in a very hitter-friendly environment and he has allowed a .380 wOBA to right-handed batters this season. Time to fire up Adrian Beltre in GPPs.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Nolan Arenado, Matt Duffy, Manny Machado (where eligible)
SHORTSTOP
Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Brewers – Villar has been the Milwaukee Brewers’ offensive catalyst this season contributing across the board offensively. John Lamb continues to struggle in 2016 and right-handed batters have done some serious damage to his ratios (.312 BAA, .371 wOBA). The bonus of picking on John Lamb is that we get to face that atrocious Cincinnati Reds bullpen after he leaves the game. Look for Villar to reach base several times and create havoc on the base paths.
Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants – With shortstop full of solid options tonight, Crawford may be one of the few bats in Coors Field with a low ownership. Crawford is coming off back-to-back multi-hit efforts and he has hammered Tyler Chatwood in a decent sample size (.412 BA in 17 ABs).
Other Shortstops to Target – Trevor Story, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Troy Tulowitzki,
OUTFIELDERS
Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners – Pat Dean is a 27-year-old pitcher with average stuff at best. Let us call him a finesse pitcher who does not miss many bats. Right-handed batters have not been kind to him at the Major League Level (.320 BAA, .377 wOBA) and I do not expect him to pitch well tonight. Cruz is a lefty killer and he has multi-homer upside tonight.
J.D. Martinez, Detroit Tigers – Sean Manaea has not had much fun in the Show thus far. The 24-year-old lefty has been hit very hard in four of his five starts and right-handed batters are doing a ton of damage against him (.337 BAA, .402 wOBA). The ballpark is not ideal, but perhaps that keeps his ownership down. Martinez has huge potential in this plus matchup.
Khris Davis, Oakland A’s – It is a small sample size, but righties have had their way with Michael Fulmer so far in his young career (.312 BAA, .426 wOBA). Most fantasy owners fade Khris Davis against right-handed pitching, but he hits righties just fine and he has double-dong potential on a nightly basis.
Ryan Rua, Texas Rangers – We know we can target righties against Jonathan Niese and Rua makes a terrific punt option in the outfield. Rua has always hit lefties well and this year he is absolutely destroying them (.467 wOBA). At his price across the industry, Rua makes a great value play in tournaments.
Other Outfielders to Target – Coors Field, Ryan Braun, Mark Trumbo, Jay Bruce, Ian Desmond, Marcell Ozuna, Billy Hamilton, Chris Owings, Lonnie Chisenhall, Franklin Gutierrez