MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 1st - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-01 17:39:25

Detroit at LA Angels – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					LA Angels
			Michael Fulmer					Matt Shoemaker
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA -105					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.265	0	14.5%	5.8%	SP vs. Left	0.314	15	19.3%	6.9%
SP vs. Right	0.387	5	33.8%	9.1%	SP vs. Right	0.342	16	22.6%	5.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Fulmer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,500
					FPPG:		35.5	FPPG:		17.6
					Pitcher Rating:		70.6	Pitcher Rank:		9
L14 Days	2	104.5	2.96	0.61	26.4%	3.8%	11.5%	52.8%	36.1%	19.4%
2016	6	98.0	3.50	3.97	24.7%	7.5%	10.7%	51.0%	29.6%	31.6%

Fulmer has really shown why he is considered one of the Tigers’ top pitching prospects. In his first six major league starts, he has a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.7%. He has shown good command for a young pitcher and he is producing an elite ground ball rate, which has limited the hard contact against him. These two teams combined for 20 runs last night, but with the over/under set at 8.0 runs tonight, we can expect a much different ball game.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Shoemaker
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		24.1	FPPG:		11.7
					Pitcher Rating:		69.1	Pitcher Rank:		11
L14 Days	2	105.5	1.46	1.15	40.4%	0.0%	22.8%	38.2%	32.4%	26.5%
2016	9	85.9	3.87	5.96	22.2%	6.4%	13.2%	34.5%	36.6%	31.7%
2015	24	87.0	3.98	4.46	20.4%	6.2%	9.1%	39.2%	42.4%	30.9%

The one concern with Shoemaker has always been his inconsistency. After a terrible start to the season, he has racked up 23 strikeouts in his last two starts. In those outings, he has a swinging strike rate of 22.8%. Obviously, that’s not sustainable over the course of the season, but he is currently underpriced given his recent production. I am not going to look his way in cash games, but he makes a nice GPP play at home against the Tigers.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers have hit right-handed pitching well this season and draw a boom or bust matchup tonight against Matt Shoemaker. On the one hand, he has been terrific in his last two starts, but on the other hand, he has allowed a .342 wOBA and 16 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. I see both Shoemaker and the Tigers’ offense as GPP options, but I will not be actively targeting either in cash games.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.178 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.1% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.49 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.97 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.337	0.142	0.401	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,700
2	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.365	0.246	0.372	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.413	0.216	0.507	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,600
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.301	0.143	0.369	C	$3,400	1B	$3,700
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.312	0.168	0.302	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,500
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.341	0.202	0.239	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400
7	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.310	0.086	0.420	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.250	0.073	0.223	C	$2,200	C	$2,300
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.276	0.056	0.143	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.148	0.331	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels

The Angels have not hit right-handed pitching well this season, but they did explode for 11 runs last night against Anibal Sanchez and the Tigers. They draw a tougher matchup tonight against Michael Fulmer, who has been an impressive rookie thus far. While the sample size is still small, Fulmer has shown some reverse-splits, which does make Mike Trout an intriguing option in all formats.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.128 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.7% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.14 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.03 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.344	0.098	0.319	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,200
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.334	0.165	0.302	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.412	0.286	0.406	OF	$4,600	OF	$4,900
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.332	0.217	0.377	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,100
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.322	0.171	0.224	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,000
6	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.311	0.114	0.350	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,000
7	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.275	0.072	0.248	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900
8	Carlos Perez	RIGHT	0.293	0.125	0.307	C	$2,400	C	$2,400
9	Gregorio Petit	RIGHT	0.250	0.070	0.258	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.146	0.310	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols

Stackability – NONE

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Washington					Philadelphia
			Max Scherzer					Adam Morgan
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -220					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.315	22	25.6%	7.3%	SP vs. Left	0.291	3	12.8%	7.3%
SP vs. Right	0.224	20	36.2%	1.9%	SP vs. Right	0.356	16	14.1%	5.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Max Scherzer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,700	Salary:		$13,200
					FPPG:		41.0	FPPG:		22.9
					Pitcher Rating:		97.9	Pitcher Rank:		1
L14 Days	3	97.7	3.41	3.80	29.6%	8.6%	15.0%	29.2%	50.0%	20.4%
2016	11	103.6	3.09	4.05	30.6%	7.5%	14.7%	35.1%	44.8%	26.7%
2015	33	101.8	2.63	2.79	30.7%	3.8%	15.3%	35.8%	45.4%	28.1%

Scherzer grades out as the premier play at pitcher tonight. He continues to give up home runs at an absurdly high rate, but he has otherwise been tremendous this season. In 11 starts, he has a 3.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.6% and a swinging strike rate of 14.7%. We would obviously prefer it if he had a higher ground ball rate, but we are willing to live with it when he is striking batters out at a 30% clip. Scherzer should have very few problems tonight with a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 28th in team wOBA and 27th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Morgan
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$4,100
					FPPG:		14.8	FPPG:		5.9
					Pitcher Rating:		33.7	Pitcher Rank:		30
L14 Days	2	96.5	5.74	7.20	8.7%	6.5%	10.4%	34.2%	42.1%	44.7%
2016	6	89.3	5.11	6.67	13.6%	7.6%	10.5%	35.3%	40.2%	36.9%
2015	15	83.1	4.94	4.48	13.9%	4.8%	9.7%	30.6%	49.3%	29.8%

Morgan checks in as the largest pitching underdog on the board tonight. His numbers have been ugly across the board, posting a 5.11 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.6%. While he is pitching at home, he still has one of the worst matchups on the board. The Nationals are ranked third in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals have quietly been one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. They draw an excellent matchup tonight against Adam Morgan, who has allowed a .356 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The big question with the Nationals is whether Bryce Harper will be in the lineup tonight. He was hit in the knee by a pitch on Monday and sat out last night’s game.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.350 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.206 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.6% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.25 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.44 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.312	0.071	0.300	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.376	0.310	0.304	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.404	0.237	0.268	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,900
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.306	0.103	0.423	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,200
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.401	0.323	0.403	1B	$3,600	1B	$5,500
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.354	0.096	0.468	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,600
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.291	0.158	0.334	C	$3,100	C	$4,000
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.299	0.134	0.239	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.206	0.000	0.098	P	$10,700	P	$13,200
	Team Averages	—	0.328	0.159	0.315	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw the worst matchup on the board tonight. They come in with the second lowest run projection and the fact that their lineup is void of power makes their matchup against Max Scherzer even worse. The one weakness of Scherzer has been the home runs allowed, but that is negated by a somewhat powerless Phillies’ lineup.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.287 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.133 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.5% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.20 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.06 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.358	0.137	0.294	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,200
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.297	0.124	0.373	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,900
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.339	0.186	0.304	3B	$2,900	3B	$2,900
4	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.275	0.125	0.407	C	$2,600	C	$2,200
5	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.317	0.230	0.116	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,600
6	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.288	0.071	0.243	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,300
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.326	0.145	0.379	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800
8	Adam Morgan	LEFT	0.069	0.032	0.000	P	$6,100	P	$4,100
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.245	0.115	0.243	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,100
	Team Averages	—	0.279	0.129	0.262	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Yankees					Toronto
			Masahiro Tanaka					Aaron Sanchez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -110					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.280	15	22.6%	4.3%	SP vs. Left	0.346	12	15.4%	12.3%
SP vs. Right	0.275	16	22.0%	4.7%	SP vs. Right	0.227	1	21.7%	8.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Masahiro Tanaka
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$10,400
					FPPG:		33.1	FPPG:		18.7
					Pitcher Rating:		66.7	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	2	87.0	3.81	0.64	15.7%	3.9%	8.6%	52.5%	22.5%	36.6%
2016	10	92.5	3.40	2.89	20.9%	4.7%	12.1%	55.1%	26.7%	28.8%
2015	24	95.4	3.36	3.51	22.8%	4.4%	11.4%	47.0%	33.8%	31.1%

Tanaka is having a better season thus far than almost everyone expected. At the beginning of the year, most scouts said that he was a ticking time bomb before another injury pops up, but so far he has been terrific. He owns a 3.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.9%. The biggest issue tonight is his matchup against the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Tanaka is overpriced and can be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Aaron Sanchez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,500
					FPPG:		34.7	FPPG:		18.4
					Pitcher Rating:		70.3	Pitcher Rank:		10
L14 Days	2	99.5	2.58	3.29	23.6%	3.6%	9.1%	61.5%	15.4%	37.5%
2016	10	98.3	3.57	3.29	21.5%	8.5%	8.4%	59.7%	18.8%	28.7%
2015	11	131.7	4.43	3.22	16.1%	11.6%	7.0%	60.6%	21.6%	21.0%

Sanchez may be my favorite value pitcher in the evening slate. He has really pitched well this season, posting a 3.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.5%. We generally don’t like to target pitchers in the Rogers Centre, but Sanchez is an exception to this rule thanks to his ground ball rate of 60%. The ballpark factors are largely negated when a pitcher has such a low fly-ball rate. The Yankees may not strikeout all that often, but they have the fifth lowest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees see a nice ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre, but I always hesitate to target hitters against pitchers that have elite ground ball rates. Over the last two seasons, Aaron Sanchez has a ground ball rate of 60%. The one potential area to exploit this matchup is with left-handed hitters.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.299 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.88 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.306	0.110	0.386	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.330	0.153	0.235	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.359	0.222	0.441	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,900
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.327	0.204	0.214	C	$3,000	C	$3,200
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.353	0.274	0.119	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,000
6	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.335	0.215	0.128	3B	$3,000	1B/3B	$3,300
7	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.291	0.133	0.257	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,900
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.301	0.103	0.350	3B	$2,900	3B	$2,800
9	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.300	0.122	0.338	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.171	0.274	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann

Stackability – NONE

Toronto

The Blue Jays are a team that I will only be targeting in tournaments. Masahiro Tanaka has been terrific this season and he has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters over the last few years. The Blue Jays can always pop at home, but with a game in Coors Field, we don’t need to pay a premium for Toronto’s hitters.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.180 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.1% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.17 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.06 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.388	0.290	0.411	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,500
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.381	0.256	0.377	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,200
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.376	0.268	0.346	1B	$3,900	1B	$3,900
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.340	0.156	0.379	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.340	0.222	0.258	1B	$2,900	1B	$2,800
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.306	0.181	0.356	C	$2,500	C	$2,800
7	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.347	0.155	0.257	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,100
8	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.369	0.207	0.398	SS	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,200
9	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.304	0.129	0.174	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.350	0.207	0.328	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Pittsburgh					Miami
			Jon Niese					Adam Conley
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -105					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.341	6	17.3%	4.4%	SP vs. Left	0.386	1	15.5%	12.4%
SP vs. Right	0.342	26	14.3%	8.0%	SP vs. Right	0.303	9	22.2%	8.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Niese
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		24.8	FPPG:		11.3
					Pitcher Rating:		51.8	Pitcher Rank:		23
L14 Days	2	95.0	3.62	1.38	11.5%	3.9%	5.8%	67.4%	20.9%	18.2%
2016	10	92.9	4.35	4.42	15.9%	7.4%	7.0%	54.2%	28.4%	28.2%
2015	29	93.1	4.27	4.13	14.7%	7.1%	5.8%	54.5%	24.7%	29.7%

Niese has been better in his last two starts, but unless he starts striking batters out a higher rate, it’s not really going to matter what his ERA looks like. A strikeout rate of 15-16% just isn’t enough to make up for the mistakes that he is likely going to make. At this point, he is not a pitcher that is on my radar in cash games or tournaments.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Conley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$5,300
					FPPG:		26.4	FPPG:		12.8
					Pitcher Rating:		56.8	Pitcher Rank:		18
L14 Days	2	98.0	6.47	7.45	9.6%	15.4%	4.1%	46.9%	25.0%	22.2%
2016	10	88.5	4.47	4.15	20.9%	10.4%	9.2%	40.0%	35.2%	29.4%
2015	11	100.2	3.98	3.76	21.0%	7.5%	10.1%	40.6%	40.6%	21.7%

Conley has the opposite problem as Jon Niese – he has a high strikeout rate but comes into the start in awful form. Even though Marlins Park is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball, Vegas is expecting a high scoring game. The total is set at 8.5 runs, which makes both of these pitchers easy fades.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching, ranking second in team wOBA on the season. They may not be playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark, but they do draw a nice matchup against Adam Conley. He has been in bad form coming into tonight’s game and the Pirates have the 12th highest team total on the board.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.351 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.184 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.3% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.04 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.22 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.354	0.099	0.408	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,900
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.379	0.195	0.325	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,400
3	David Freese	RIGHT	0.349	0.213	0.422	1B	$3,200	1B/3B	$3,800
4	Jung Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.351	0.224	0.342	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,900
5	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.311	0.159	0.345	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,600
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.365	0.119	0.241	C	$2,800	C	$3,500
7	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.262	0.137	0.468	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,500
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.320	0.100	0.280	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,400
9	Jon Niese	LEFT	0.220	0.000	0.000	P	$7,200	P	$6,600
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.138	0.315	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, David Freese, Jung Ho Kang

Stackability – GPP

Miami

The Marlins have been a mediocre team offensively against left-handed pitching. A large part of their success against southpaws is thanks to Giancarlo Stanton, who will not be in the lineup tonight. The good news is that they get to face Jon Niese, who has allowed a .341+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.321 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.144 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.7% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.04 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.28 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.351	0.133	0.322	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,400
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.357	0.120	0.189	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,400
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.323	0.066	0.321	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.444	0.256	0.523	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,100
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.298	0.168	0.220	C	$2,500	C	$3,200
6	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.308	0.081	0.267	1B	$2,200	1B/3B	$2,600
7	Cole Gillespie	RIGHT	0.335	0.067	0.346	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,800
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.272	0.079	0.229	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,400
9	Adam Conley	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$7,800	P	$5,300
	Team Averages	—	0.299	0.108	0.269	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Adeiny Hechavarria, Martin Prado, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – GPP

San Francisco at Atlanta – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					Atlanta
			Albert Suarez					Williams Perez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -130					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.285	0	10.0%	0.0%	SP vs. Left	0.356	11	13.4%	9.4%
SP vs. Right	0.299	0	14.8%	7.4%	SP vs. Right	0.309	4	13.9%	9.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Albert Suarez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		11.4	FPPG:		5.7
					Pitcher Rating:		55.3	Pitcher Rank:		20
L14 Days	0	#DIV/0!	3.95	3.38	12.9%	3.2%	12.2%	47.8%	26.1%	29.2%
2016	0	#DIV/0!	4.12	2.25	12.8%	4.3%	10.4%	47.2%	27.8%	24.3%

Suarez is making his first career major league start. He has made five appearances out of the bullpen this season, but he only has 12 innings under his belt. He likely won’t be able to pitch too deep into tonight’s game (his season high pitch count is 65), which does limit his upside a little bit. The only reason to potentially target Suarez is as an SP2, as he will allow you to afford an expensive pitcher and get some Coors Field exposure at the same time.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Williams Perez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,900
					FPPG:		21.3	FPPG:		10.5
					Pitcher Rating:		34.7	Pitcher Rank:		28
L14 Days	2	85.0	3.70	1.46	14.9%	4.3%	7.7%	57.9%	21.1%	29.0%
2016	7	80.4	4.54	3.72	12.0%	7.6%	6.0%	60.5%	25.0%	25.2%
2015	20	93.5	4.87	4.78	14.2%	9.9%	6.1%	50.9%	28.8%	29.4%

Perez is always one of the lowest rated pitching options available. In seven starts this season, he has a 4.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. He draws a favorable matchup on paper against the Giants, but they are better against right-handed pitching than their numbers would suggest. With his struggles against left-handed hitters, it could be a short outing for Perez.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants were a bit of a letdown offensively last night, but they draw an even better matchup this time around. Over the last two seasons, Williams Perez has allowed a .356 wOBA to left-handed hitters. That bodes well for a Giants’ lineup that is currently projected to have five lefties in it. San Francisco is a sneaky contrarian stack tonight.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.8% (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.44 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.43 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.360	0.122	0.295	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.357	0.164	0.275	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,800
3	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.331	0.139	0.253	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,700
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.352	0.154	0.399	C	$3,800	C	$4,700
5	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.374	0.189	0.441	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800
6	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.366	0.196	0.336	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,100
7	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.343	0.220	0.369	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,900
8	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.327	0.117	0.383	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
9	Albert Suarez	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,500	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.145	0.306	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Denard Span

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta

The Braves don’t really do anything well offensively, but they have the 15th highest run projection on the board tonight. I will not be looking to target any of their hitters in cash games, but you could certainly look to this lineup for some value if you need a punt play or two.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.279 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.089 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.7% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.18 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.07 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.343	0.112	0.303	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
2	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.304	0.136	0.411	2B	$2,800	2B/3B	$2,700
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.367	0.213	0.240	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000
4	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.293	0.131	0.160	3B	$2,100	3B/OF	$2,600
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.342	0.097	0.283	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700
6	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.310	0.153	0.176	3B	$2,100	2B/OF	$2,900
7	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.320	0.128	0.116	C	$2,200	C	$3,000
8	Williams Perez	RIGHT	0.102	0.000	0.000	P	$6,500	P	$4,900
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.370	0.227	0.387	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.133	0.231	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 1st - Page Two

Detroit at LA Angels – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols

Stackability – NONE

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann

Stackability – NONE

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, David Freese, Jung Ho Kang

Stackability – GPP

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Adeiny Hechavarria, Martin Prado, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – GPP

San Francisco at Atlanta – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Denard Span

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Gordon Beckham, Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

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