NFL Best Ball Analysis: 2017 FSTA “B” Draft Recap

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On Monday, June 19th, I took part in the FSTA Fantasy Football “B” Draft representing RotoGrinders. With the introduction of the “Best Ball” game to the Draft app, I thought it would be appropriate to discuss my overall strategy and selections.

The goal is to briefly break down my current thoughts on players I am targeting, and translate ADP analysis as it would apply to the Draft app. There are differences in the scoring systems, and I will make note of this where applicable.

Best Ball Rules

For a full breakdown of Draft’s new game, check out this article.

Editor’s Note: Use promo code GRINDERS when you sign up for Draft and get a 100% deposit bonus up to $600 and THREE months of RotoGrinders DRAFT Premium content!

Here is an excerpt from that article written by Aaron Hendrix:

The rules of Best Ball on DRAFT are straightforward and easy to understand. You will join a contest (typically 10 or 12 entrants, but it can vary) and once it has filled, the draft will start. Given a set time to make a draft pick, the contest entrants will each draft an 18-player team that, at a minimum, must have one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, and one FLEX (an additional RB/WR/TE).

Each week, the eight highest scoring players for QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, and FLEX (highest scored RB/WR/TE that hasn’t already had their score counted) will accumulate points for the team, while the other 10 scores will not count.

You can check out the scoring system in the article, but just know that it is a .5 PPR scoring system and that the FSTA draft format was full PPR.

The FSTA Draft

You can check out the full draft board here and decide what you might have done differently in my shoes.

This was a 16-round, 14-team draft with 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 DST, and 6 bench rosters. Scoring if full point PPR, and this draft was NOT best ball format.

My broad strategy in this format is to go WR heavy early. This is a strategy I frequently take in best ball format as well.

Round 1, Pick #4 Overall

Pre-Draft Targets at #4 Overall: Antonio Brown (DRAFT ADP 4.0), Julio Jones (DRAFT ADP 5.2)

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My Selection: Antonio Brown (DRAFT ADP 4.0)

Quick Comments: This is the least debatable selection of my draft.

Alternatives for DRAFT in this spot: None – Brown is a fine selection at #4 in the DRAFT best ball format. I have five DRAFT best ball leagues in progress right now, and Brown was the #4 overall pick in all five.

Analysis: I would have been perfectly happy to take Julio Jones here, but the reasons to take Brown are clear. Brown outscored Jones by nearly two full pts/gm in PPR formats last season en route to his third consecutive finish as the WR1 overall and fourth consecutive finish in the top three. Brown ranked #1 in WR1 separation (2.92 yards at target) as compiled by Matt Harmon using NFL NextGen Stats. He’s a perennial PPR stud with relatively few paths to disappointment. I’ll bank on the nearly unprecedented consistency, efficiency, and productivity of Brown over the intriguing ceiling of Jones.

Round 2, Pick #25 Overall

Pre-Draft Targets at #25 Overall: Doug Baldwin (DRAFT ADP 21.5), Amari Cooper (DRAFT ADP 22.2),


My Selection: Davante Adams (DRAFT ADP 37.8)

Quick Comments: This is way too early for Adams, but I’m too damned stubborn to compromise on players I don’t believe in. Think of this pick as if I traded down in the draft, with the exception that I got absolutely nothing in return.

Alternatives for DRAFT in this spot: You might see guys like Amari Cooper or Doug Baldwin here, and those are the WRs I want to see the most at this price. DeAndre Hopkins (30.1 ADP), Leonard Fournette (21.1 ADP), and Isaiah Crowell (32.2 ADP) are all reasonable alternatives. Brandin Cooks (DRAFT ADP 30.8) is fine for best ball, despite the fact that I despise him for season long.

Analysis: I do value Davante Adams more than most, but I don’t value him as a second round pick per se. In that sense, this pick looks odd and I wouldn’t highly recommend it if your goal is optimal play. That said, my ideal targets didn’t fall to me and I take an aggressive approach to PPR drafts. I won’t compromise on players I don’t believe in for the upcoming season. I’m straight up looking to avoid Brandin Cooks in weekly sit/start leagues. I’m not terribly fond of owning Alshon Jeffery (potential inconsistency) or Keenan Allen (overvalued, injury risk, crowded situation). Allen Robinson is probably the guy I’m supposed to take here, but the Jaguars passing game is not the place I had hoped to invest in a winner take all league. My remaining options were all third round + graded players and running backs I’m fading every time at this price (Lamar Miller, Marshawn Lynch, Isaiah Crowell). With all this in mind, I chose to essentially forego a sliver of theoretical value to ensure my team was stocked with talents I believe in.

So why reach for Adams 12 spots ahead of ADP? Call me crazy, but I like players who get wide ass open and have Aaron Rodgers as their QB. I like players who operate in the second most pass friendly offense in football. I like offenses that successfully run a high percentage of pass plays near the goal. According to SharpFootballStats.com, the Packers were #2 in the NFL with a 72% Success rate on red zone passes and ran a ridiculous 72% pass plays deep in enemy territory. Premium opportunity is going to be afoot in this offense, and Adams exhibited tremendous skill when called upon. He ranked first among WR2s with 2.89 yards separation at target in 2016. He also ranked first among all WRs with a 69.6% catch rate in tight coverage. He’s frequently getting open and exhibiting skill bringing down contested catches.

It’s not all roses though. Adams has company in the form of a healthy Randall Cobb, a newly acquired Martellus Bennett, and an emerging Ty Montgomery out of the backfield. There is risk to his role in the offense. However, I’m presently operating with the confidence that he will continue to emerge. This offense should produce well, and Adams is unlikely to disappoint if he continues to get open with regularity.

All things considered, I’m fine betting on talents I believe in early in the summer, but just know you can likely get this player much cheaper than I did.

Round 3, Pick #32 Overall

Pre-Draft Targets at #32 Overall: Allen Robinson (DRAFT ADP 41.0), Davante Adams (DRAFT ADP 37.8), Sammy Watkins (DRAFT ADP 30.4)

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My Selection: Sammy Watkins (DRAFT ADP 30.4)

Quick Comments: He’s extremely risky, but the opportunity to exceed this value is stupid obvious given the supporting cast.

Alternatives for DRAFT in this spot: Aside from my listed PPR targets, I’m somewhat more inclined to consider Alshon Jeffery (DRAFT ADP 38.2) here in best ball formats.

Analysis: Watkins participated in team drills during mini camp and the Bills have 200+ unaccounted for targets from 2016. His competition for targets include such stud muffins as 28th percentile SPARQ-x athlete Corey Brown (per playerprofiler.com), former Raider Andre Holmes, and rookie second round pick Zay Jones (has potential). If you’re like me and willing to overlook Watkins’ stunningly troublesome injury history, you’re staring at a third round draft cost with first round WR upside. I’m aggressively selecting Watkins and will build my teams with his risk factors in mind when I do. I’ve taken him several times on DRAFT already.

Round 4, Pick #53 Overall

Pre-Draft Targets at #53 Overall: Terrelle Pryor (DRAFT ADP 55.0), Golden Tate (DRAFT ADP 49.5), Emmanuel Sanders (DRAFT ADP 56.3)


My Selection: Emmanuel Sanders (DRAFT ADP 56.3)

Quick Comments: I continue with a WR heavy strategy in a PPR league that allows four WRs as starters. I also continue with my theme of drafting guys who create a lot of separation.

Alternatives for DRAFT in this spot: You might see a guy like Michael Crabtree (DRAFT ADP 51.2) hanging around – I’m not aggressively seeking him as a pick, but I’ve seen others bullish on him.

Analysis: When split wide, Sanders delivered 2.55 yards of separation at target. When aligned in the slot, Sanders saw 2.95 yards of separation at target. His catch rate in tight coverage was also impressive for a man of his stature at 50%. All those stats were once again courtesy of this fantastic article series from Matt Harmon. Narratives of flukiness, uncertainty at QB, and age related regression can be taken elsewhere. I don’t care. He’s a WR2 caliber player that would be fine at this price even if his QB situation leads him to an outcome closer to a WR3. I’ll take a chance on the modest profit potential.

Round 5, Pick #60 Overall

Pre-Draft Targets at #60 Overall: Brandon Marshall (DRAFT ADP 72), C.J. Anderson (DRAFT ADP 72.9), Stefon Diggs (DRAFT ADP 66.8)


My Selection: Ameer Abdullah (DRAFT ADP 92.2 – potentially undervalued – His FF Calculator ADP is 60 Overall)

Quick Comments: Another risky selection with upside (sensing a theme?), Abdullah is an early summer favorite of mine when punting RB in the early rounds. His first two season have been a disaster and yet I remain attracted to his elite agility, burst, and SPARQ-x score.

Alternatives for DRAFT in this spot: Martavis Bryant (DRAFT ADP 77.6) is a nice target for best ball formats if you think he returns to form. His average depth of target in 2015 was 15.3 yards, and we witnessed multiple explosive plays and weeks during that season. Reports have him adding weight and looking like “a stud” in the offseason program.

Analysis: Abdullah revealed in an interview that his foot injury last season was of the dreaded Lisfranc variety. This is no doubt helping to keep his ADP down substantially on DRAFT. He participated fully in the offseason program, and he should be full go for the 2017 season. The fear surrounding his overall situation allows me to load up on WRs early in drafts, knowing I’ll very likely have the Lions “Starter” (according to Jim Caldwell) waiting for me in Round 6 or 7 of a 12-team draft. Aside from the injury, Abdullah will have other blemishes to contend with which dampen my enthusiasm for fantasy purposes. The loss of LT Taylor Decker will hurt. He has uncertain prospects in both passing down and goal to go situations. A lot has to go right for him to be an every week stud, but you can do a lot worse in terms of a punt back in a WR heavy strategy.

Round 6, Pick #81 Overall

Pre-Draft Targets at #81 Overall: Ameer Abdullah (DRAFT ADP 92.2), Russell Wilson (DRAFT ADP 62.5), Randall Cobb (DRAFT ADP 70.3), Adrian Peterson (DRAFT ADP 42.6)

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My Selection: Adrian Peterson (DRAFT ADP 42.6)

Quick Comments: Old man value at this ADP fits my strategy to perfection. I’m constructing my roster with (reasonable) volatility in mind, and I expect Peterson to get the goal line work in this offense.

Alternatives for DRAFT in this spot: The next pick in this draft was Mark Ingram (DRAFT ADP 49.2), and it’s not impossible you see him fall to this point. That’s a steadfast bet against Peterson in my view, but I’d much rather own Ingram in best ball (where I don’t have to worry about the volatility as much). At QB, you could see guys like Derek Carr (DRAFT ADP 88.1), Kirk Cousins (DRAFT 74.5), and Jameis Winston (DRAFT ADP 67.7).

Analysis: As usual, Sean Payton simultaneously loves and hates your fantasy team. The Saints acquired Peterson this offseason and drafted Alvin Kamara to complement the fantasy imprisoned Mark Ingram. It’s a crowded, uncertain situation that furthers my draft strategy by allowing me to buy upside at an affordable rate. In this case, Peterson should be a contender for premium carries near the end zone. Given the massive offensive upgrade from a Honda Civic situation (Minnesota) to a Luxury Vehicle (New Orleans), having a substantial role near the goal is incredibly meaningful. I don’t expect Peterson to be a league winner with any certainty. Payton hates my fantasy team too much to allow the old Adrian Peterson to resurface. Instead, I’m banking on low end RB2 type digits that can keep my team afloat while the WR group does the dirty work. If he’s any better than low end RB2, it’s a nice win.

Editor’s Note: Use promo code GRINDERS when you sign up for Draft and get a 100% deposit bonus up to $600 and THREE months of RotoGrinders DRAFT Premium content!

Round 7, Pick #88 Overall

Pre-Draft Targets at #88 Overall: Derek Carr (DRAFT ADP 88.1), Martellus Bennett (DRAFT ADP 81.9), Cameron Meredith (DRAFT ADP 99.3), Danny Woodhead (DRAFT ADP 87.1)


My Selection: Danny Woodhead (DRAFT ADP 87.1)

Quick Comments: At this point it’s fair to criticize the number of injury risks and volatile situations I’ve invested in. That being said, I’m not afraid to be aggressive and I love Woodhead in full PPR formats given the current state of the Ravens backfield.

Alternatives for DRAFT in this spot: If you’ve already loaded up on running backs by this point, there are some best ball options at the WR position here. DeVante Parker (DRAFT ADP 80.6) and DeSean Jackson (DRAFT ADP 76.6) fit the format well.

Analysis: ‘Tis the season for preseason fluff reports, and Woodhead is among several Ravens getting all fluffed up. A Ravens beat wrote that he “lost track” of how many passes Woodhead caught during minicamp. The bottom line with Woodhead in PPR formats is that – IF HEALTHY (big if), he’s a potential value. Looking at the surrounding cast, we see the following: A suspended Kenneth Dixon (who will eventually return to slow down the party), an early down back in the form of Terrance West that Greg Roman is surely intent on pulling for third downs, and perpetual healthy scratch Buck Allen. I expect Woodhead to be on the field in premium situations (passing downs and near the goal) enough to outperform his ADP. He’s one of my favorite picks in PPR formats. Unfortunately he’s not nearly as good for DRAFT Best Ball. The .5 PPR and (theoretically) limited week to week ceiling is an issue there.

Round 8, Pick #109 Overall

Pre-Draft Targets at #109 Overall: Jeremy Maclin (DRAFT ADP 107.1), Zach Ertz (DRAFT ADP 99.6)


My Selection: Kenny Britt (DRAFT ADP 125.9)

Comments: This pick sounds gross, but if you read the list of other available players for my WR5 it starts to look a lot better in a hurry.

Alternatives for DRAFT in this spot: LeGarrette Blount (DRAFT ADP 103.6), Pierre Garcon (DRAFT ADP 95.8)

Analysis: Britt has migrated from a horrendous bottom feeding suck fest in St. Louis over to Cleveland, and somehow this feels like an upgrade. Corey Coleman could be the primary in this offense (after Isaiah Crowell), but I’m not 100% sure that’s how it will play out on the field. The Browns signed Britt to a big contract, and the evidence of a Corey Coleman breakout was not exactly jumping off the screen at you last season. That leaves Britt – once a high upside breakout candidate himself – as the veteran size receiver the Browns may rely on in premium situations. Nobody is taking this guy anywhere near the value I have for him, and that made him a pretty easy call given the situation. This is especially true when you consider the more volatile season-long options drafted in the next two rounds of this draft like Tyrell Williams, Will Fuller, Marvin Jones, Mike Wallace, Ted Ginn, and Kevin White. All things considered, Britt is a fine WR5 in a 14-team league.

Round 9, Pick #116 Overall

Pre-Draft Targets at #116 Overall: Philip Rivers (DRAFT ADP 101.4), Eric Ebron (DRAFT ADP 108.2), Matt Forte (DRAFT ADP 119.5 ), Kenneth Dixon (DRAFT ADP 143.9)


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My Selection: Eric Ebron (DRAFT ADP 108.2)

Quick Comments: Late round TE pays off with a viable low end TE 1 with upside.

Alternatives for DRAFT in this spot: Ted Ginn (DRAFT ADP 119.5) is an absolutely awesome best ball target in this range.

Analysis: Let’s not over analyze this pick. I needed a TE, and we can expect Eric Ebron to AT MINIMUM produce to the middling standards of his early career. However, let’s not forget that Anquan Boldin is gone and that Ebron was a first round talent. He’s a fine athlete that presents upside if his opportunity increases, specifically his end zone targets. On the downside, injuries have been a concern with Ebron. I lament the fact that I have loaded my roster with yet another question mark in that regard.

Round 10, Pick #137 Overall

Pre-Draft Targets at #137 Overall: Philip Rivers (DRAFT ADP 101.4), Eli Manning (DRAFT ADP 100.0), Tyrod Taylor (DRAFT ADP 111.3)


My Selection: Ben Roethlisberger (DRAFT ADP 67.8)

Quick Comments: This group of sharp drafters mostly elected to wait on QB, which allowed me to have my choice of ever so slightly higher projected QBs than those I had planned to target.

Alternatives for DRAFT in this spot: Tons of WR depth here – Tyrell Williams (DRAFT ADP 129.5 ), John Brown (DRAFT ADP 126.8), Jordan Matthews (DRAFT ADP 131.8), Kenny Britt (DRAFT ADP 125.9), Will Fuller (DRAFT ADP 122.5), Adam Thielen (DRAFT ADP 115.2)

Analysis: Ben isn’t a player I am actively targeting in drafts early in the summer, but somebody I am perfectly happy to take in the 10th round of a 14-team draft. I plan on streaming QBs at some point anyway, so I was never tremendously concerned with which QB would wind up on my roster. The weaponry for Ben receives some upgrades with Martavis Bryant returning and the selection of JuJu Smith-Schuster in the second round of the draft. Combined with Antonio Brown and Le’veon Bell, my concerns are minimal for Ben’s production floor. On a side note, I don’t intentionally pair QB with WR in season-long formats on most occasions. In this case it’s Antonio Brown in my stack, and the volatility isn’t as high as you would see with most QB/WR stacks. Brown can produce (somewhat) independently of Ben in PPR formats.

Final Round Selections

Round 11, Pick 144 Overall Selection: Zay Jones (DRAFT ADP 206.8)

Comments: This is Watkins insurance for the summer, and upside if I decide to keep him. I can move him off the roster later if I need to. In best ball, he’s more of a late round lottery ticket given the immense unknown.

Round 12, Pick 165 Overall Selection: Julius Thomas (DRAFT ADP 138.2)

Comments: A very nice upside TE2 on the cheap. According to ESPN (see Rotoworld blurb in player card), Dolphins OC Clyde Christensen said Julius Thomas can be “a 10-touchdown guy.” Sounds fantastic, but I am withholding my backflip. Only so many guys can break out in one season, and America has ticketed Jay Ajayi, Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker as guys worthy of picks significantly higher in drafts. Somebody is going to be a loser in this situation, or else Ryan Tannehill is grossly undervalued. My bet is on the former, and that we’ll see at least one Dolphin disappoint.

Round 13, Pick 172 Overall Selection: Jonathan Williams (DRAFT ADP 209.6)

Comments: Now it just looks like I’m a Bills homer, but keep in mind LeSean McCoy has been known to miss time and that he is the direct replacement. The RB1 roll in Buffalo is a super premium situation.

Round 14, Pick 193 Overall Selection: Shane Vereen (DRAFT ADP 196.3)

Comments: I waited on RBs, and now my depth is taking a hit with a dart throw backup in Round 13 and an emergency only punt in Round 14. Vereen has zero upside, but there could be weeks when I need a back and he does currently own a key role on passing downs. At least he’s cheap.

About the Author

ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino)

Chris Gimino is a top mind in the industry and one of the primary contributors at RotoGrinders. Together with our team of experts, his work is powering projections, simulations, ownership, and analytics across 10+ sports for betting, DFS, and fantasy pick’em contests. A multiple-time Live Finalist and shipper of 6-figure wins, Chris delivers actionable tools and advice for RotoGrinders Premium subscribers. Follow Chris on Twitter – @ChrisGimino