The Relief Brief: Monday, July 25th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-07-26 01:36:57

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

— Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen
— Bad SP combined with elite bullpen
— Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

— Call-ups & Expectations
— Other Roster Movement

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Monday night features an 11 game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights as described above. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Justin Verlander may not be the pitcher that he was five years ago, but he’s putting together a solid 2016 campaign. Of his 20 starts on the season, he has gone seven or more innings 12 times. Today, he’ll face off against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Verlander may not be considered a league wide ace at this point, but he is still the ace of his team, and they will be counting on him for innings tonight. Justin Wilson, Alex Wilson, Bruce Rondon and Shane Greene have all worked in back to back days. That will undoubtedly leave the bullpen a bit short-handed tonight. We can expect a longer leash on Verlander. If the Red Sox can get to him early, they will be facing a weary bullpen. We’ve all seen what this Red Sox offense can do, even against strong starting pitching.

Colin Rea has exceeded six innings just three times in his last 11 starts. Tonight he faces the Blue Jays in Toronto. The Blue Jays have the sixth highest wOBA vs RHP on the season and will look to take advantage of Rea, who has allowed a .353 wOBA vs righties in 2016. Sounds promising. The Padres ‘pen should also be a bit shorthanded tonight as Carlos Villanueva tossed 38 pitches yesterday. The Padres’ most reliable arm (Ryan Buchter) has thrown a healthy amount of pitches on consecutive days as well.

Carlos Martinez continues to be a very good pitcher. He carries an elite 58% ground ball rate into tonight’s start against the New York Mets. In 18 starts on the season, Martinez has accumulated a healthy 114 plus innings (while allowing only eight dongs). In his last nine starts, he has gone six innings or more on eight occasions. Tonight, he faces a Mets team that is currently ranked 20th in team wOBA vs RHP, and I expect Martinez to turn this favorable matchup into a long outing. Trevor Rosenthal has thrown 55 pitches in the last two days while Seung-Hwan Oh and Seth Maness combined for 80 pitches yesterday. Expect the Cards to let Martinez go as long as he can tonight.

Braden Shipley has racked up a good amount of innings in AAA ball this season. In 19 starts, he’s averaged over six innings per game. Again, this has been in the minor leagues. His peripheral numbers are not eye-catching (at least not for positive reasons). His K/9 rate is below six and his minor league FIP is close to four. All this to say, Shipley will get a shot to start tonight, but is unlikely to go deep into the game. With the exception of Tyler Clippard, the Arizona bullpen should be at full strength. However, full strength is a relative term when it comes to any given bullpen. As a whole, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks 29th in SIERA (that’s bad) and is among the lowest in strikeout percentage.

In his last six starts, Chase Anderson has averaged less than four innings per start. Much of his struggles have been directly related walks (19 BB over those six starts). Tonight, he faces the Arizona Diamondbacks who just so happen to have the third lowest BB% in baseball. While that may help Anderson reach the fifth inning, I don’t see it as a reason to jump aboard the Chase Anderson bandwagon tonight. The Brewers could use a longer outing from Anderson here as Will Smith and Blaine Boyer will both most likely be unavailable. Both offenses in this game are firmly in play, especially in the hitter friendly confines of Miller Park (more on that below).

For the Chicago Cubs, Travis Wood has thrown on two of the last three days as have Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon. Clayton Richard has worked in back to back games along with Justin Grimm. Jake Arrieta gets the call tonight against the cross-city “rival” White Sox. Before the All-Star break, Jake Arrieta had a string of unimpressive starts in which he failed to go beyond the sixth inning in five straight appearances (largely due to walks). In his first start out of the break, Jake went seven strong against the Mets. Joe Maddon and the Cubs will be looking for another strong outing from their ace tonight. The bullpen could use the rest, and I consider it likely that they’ll get it. The White Sox are ranked 23rd in team wOBA vs RHP.

Miguel Gonzalez will start opposite Arrieta tonight. The White Sox bullpen is in even worse shape than the Cubs bullpen as four of their key arms (Jones, Albers, Duke, and Jennings) have all thrown on three consecutive days. While Arrieta represented an elite starting pitcher combined with a tired bullpen, Miguel Gonzalez represents a below average starting pitcher in front of a tired (and quite poor) White Sox bullpen. Gonzalez does have four consecutive starts of at least six innings, but his peripheral stats in those starts indicate that he was more fortunate than good. The Cubs bats are another strong offensive team to roster against a weary pitching staff.

Dallas Keuchel may not be considered elite, but he has been much better at home in 2016. Tonight, he’ll face the Yankees (27th ranked wOBA vs LHP) at home. There isn’t much to say here other than that. This is the case of an elite (at home) starting pitcher with an elite bullpen behind him (second in SIERA, third in K%, second in HR/9 allowed). Move along.

Hector Santiago gets the call tonight against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Santiago has gone at least six innings in six of his last seven starts, and the Angels are desperate for more of the same tonight. After Tim Lincecum got lit up yesterday, the Angels were forced to use six different arms out of the ‘pen in a blowout loss to Houston. Santiago continues to give up a large amount of fly balls to right handed hitters, but that should work in his favor in the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium tonight. If he does struggle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stay in the game just to eat up some innings for his team and their tired bullpen.

Since June 21st, Anthony DeSclafani has started six different times and has gone at least six innings every time out during that span. While that does include starts against the Padres, the Braves and the Brewers, it also includes starts against the Cubs, the Rangers and the Nationals. Over the last 14 days, the San Francisco Giants have the 23rd ranked wOBA vs right handed pitching. The Reds bullpen remains the worst in the majors, but if DeSclafani continues to pitch deep into games, it won’t matter tonight. This is an unfavorable ballpark for hitters. This may be a sneaky game to fade despite its appearance on the surface.

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Red Sox recalled Joe Kelly from AAA. He will join the bullpen. His stuff may play very well out of the bullpen for a team that badly needs reliable arms.

The Pirates recalled A.J Schugel from AAA. He should provide a middle/long relief option.

Ryan Tepera was recalled by the Blue Jays. He’s nothing more than a warm body to eat up innings (I hope he doesn’t read this article).

The Chicago Cubs activated Joe Nathan. The former closer should provide middle relief for the Cubs. (He picked up a win in his first appearance of the season yesterday, in which he struck out the side in a clean sixth inning).

The White Sox recalled Anthony Ranaudo from AAA. While Ranaudo had been considered a starting pitcher, he’s been much more reliable in a relief role in the minors and should provide middle relief for the big club.

The Orioles activated Darren O’Day yesterday. He should provide a big boost to the Baltimore ‘pen.

While there are a number of trade rumors circulating, not much has materialized as of yet. However, the Cubs and Yankees struck a deal this morning sending Aroldis Chapman to Chicago. The Cubs are in win now mode while the Yankees are rebuilding for the future.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Miller Park has the top HR ballpark rating in 2016.

The Chicago Cubs currently own the ninth best K% among all bullpens, but that ranking figures to climb with the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, who is currently striking out 30% of lefties and 38% or righties that he faces.

Clay Buchholz has become the punch line in this section, and he’s not doing anything to liberate himself from it either. He came in during a two run ballgame and swiftly gave up three runs. What in the world happened to you, Clay?

Thanks for reading, and keep the feedback coming!

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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