NHL Grind Down: Friday, March 18th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2016-03-19 02:35:08

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres – 07:00 PM EDT

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Ottawa Senators					Buffalo Sabres
			Craig Anderson					Robin Lehner
			Record					Record
			33-30-8					28-33-10
Team Stats	2.80	3.01	16.70%	75.10%	Team Stats	2.35	2.63	19.00%	81.30%

The Senators are still an extreme long-shot to see post-season action, but with two straight wins, hope is still alive. They’ll head to Buffalo tonight for the fourth and final meeting this season with the Sabres looking for just their third three-game winning streak of the season. Erik Karlsson always needs to be the first player you look at when targeting the Senators. He leads all NHL defensemen with 73 points in 71 games this season and actually trails only Patrick Kane and Jamie Benn in that department league wide. Karlsson is fresh off of a one goal, two assist performance against Minnesota on Tuesday and looks poised to surpass his career high 78 point season from 2011-12. Up-front, Dave Cameron has two very dangerous forward lines to work with. Mike Hoffman and Mika Zibanejad join Alex Chiasson on the second line and may be a bit more of the “household” names, but it’s been the trio of Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Mark Stone carrying the offensive load lately. Stone picked up an assist against Minnesota to extend his point streak to six games and is quickly developing a reputation for being one of the best second-half players in the league. After posting 15 goals, 23 assists and a plus 12 in 36 second-half games last season, he’s followed it up with 11 goals, 14 assists and a plus 12 in 21 games since the break this year. Bobby Ryan also deserves a mention as the former #2 overall draft pick and four-time 30-goal scorer sees plenty of run on the top power-play unit and picked up a goal and an assist in the three prior meetings with Buffalo this season.

Don’t let the scoreboard fool you, Buffalo outplayed the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday and deserved a better fortune. While it’s still tough to target them heavily in daily fantasy hockey, tonight’s home matchup against the Senators is a promising one. Ottawa has allowed an NHL worst 3.51 goals against per game on the road this season and only the Calgary Flames own a worse penalty kill than theirs at 75.1%. With leading scorer Ryan O’Reilly back in the mix, Dan Bylsma now has two offensively gifted forward lines at his disposal. O’Reilly picked up and assist in his first game back and logged over 22 minutes of ice-time, so there’s no need to worry about his conditioning. He’ll be joined by Evander Kane (and Nicolas Deslauriers) on the top line, leaving phenom Jack Eichel to skate alongside fellow second overall draft pick Sam Reinhart on the second line. Eichel and Reinhart have developed a very nice rapport with each other and have combined for six goals and seven assists in their last eight games. Eichel has torched the Senators for three goals and an assist in their three prior meetings this season. They both join O’Reilly on the top power-play unit and look like fine options in all formats tonight. On defense, Rasmus Ristolainen quarterbacks the #1 power-play and is in the midst of a breakout season. He’s racked up 38 points in 71 games and is still very reasonably priced on most sites. Zach Bogosian also sees a healthy dose of playing time with the man advantage and has come alive offensively lately with a goal and four assists in his last seven games.

Ottawa Senators

CF%: 47.4, CP60: 111.5, 5×5 Differential: -3
Elite Options: Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson
Secondary Options: Mike Hoffman, Mika Zibanejad, Bobby Ryan, Dion Phaneuf

Buffalo Sabres

CF%: 47.4, CP60: 104.9, 5×5 Differential: -27
Elite Options: Jack Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane
Secondary Options: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian

Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals – 07:00 PM EDT

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Nashville Predators					Washington Capitals
			Pekka Rinne					Braden Holtby
			Record					Record
			35-22-13					50-14-5
Team Stats	2.70	2.54	19.00%	80.20%	Team Stats	3.14	2.32	23.70%	84.30%

The Predators picked up a big win against the Islanders last night and have climbed to within three points of the Chicago Blackhawks for the third place in the Central Division. This team has posted a 9-1-2 record over their last 12 games and will try to keep things rolling as they head to the Verizon Center to battle the Washington Capitals before returning home to open a four-game home stand on Monday. Peter Laviolette can counter Washington’s two strong forward lines with two very strong lines of his own. Filip Forsberg leads the team with 52 points this season and, despite a recent dry spell, has really come on strong down the stretch; scoring 14 goals and adding eight assists in 21 games since the All-Star break. He’ll be joined Mike Ribeiro and Craig Smith both at even strength and on the top power-play unit. Alternatively, James Neal and Ryan Johansen team up on the top forward line with Calle Jarnkrok on their wing. Neal has been white-hot lately with four goals and an assists in his last two games while Johansen scored the game-winner last night. On defense, both Roman Josi and Shea Weber are fine options on a nightly basis. However, with their price-tags quite high, a matchup in Washington may be just enough to push them towards GPP-only territory for me tonight.

With Alex Ovechkin overtime goal on Tuesday, the Washington Capitals became the first team in the NHL to clinch a playoff spot this season. Ovechkin now leads the NHL with 42 goals in 67 games and his 342 shots on goal is easily the highest mark in the league as well. He lit the lamp against Nashville in their only previous meeting this season and is a top-tier option on the wing tonight, as usual. He’s once again slated to be joined by Nicklas Backstrom and Jay Beagle on the top line, giving both players significant fantasy boosts. Backstrom is quietly having a very fine season with 63 points (and a plus 16) in 66 games, while Beagle hasn’t done much to get excited about. He’s recorded just one point this calendar year, but this playing situation makes him worth a look if you’re desperate for some salary relief. Evgeny Kunzentsov picked up an assist for the fourth straight game and not only leads the Capitals with 70 points, but is also tied with Anze Kopitar for the NHL lead in plus/minus at plus 30. T.J. Oshie and Andre Burakovsky join him on the “second” line and all three also see plenty of run with the man-advantage which should bode well for them against Nashville’s subpar penalty kill. On defense, John Carlson remains without a timetable for his return, securing Matt Niskanen job as the point-man on the top power-play unit. Niskanen has posted two goals and two assists in eight games this month and his price-tag does not yet reflect his new added responsibilities.

Nashville Predators

CF%: 52.4, CP60: 106.1, 5×5 Differential: 12
Elite Options: Filip Forsberg, James Neal
Secondary Options: Ryan Johansen, Craig Smith, Shea Weber, Roman Josi

Washington Capitals

CF%: 50.4, CP60: 110, 5×5 Differential: 35
Elite Options: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom
Secondary Options: T.J. Oshie, Andre Burakovsky, Andre Burakovsky, Matt Niskanen

Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets – 08:00 PM EDT

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Chicago Blackhawks					Winnipeg Jets
			Scott Darling					Michael Hutchinson
			Record					Record
			41-24-6					29-36-5
Team Stats	2.76	2.46	22.60%	78.20%	Team Stats	2.57	2.94	15.20%	78.40%

The Blackhawks have dropped four straight games, and despite a rock solid 41-24-6 record, they need to get back to their winning ways in a hurry or they’ll be opening the first round of the NHL playoffs on the road against one of their division rivals. Joel Quenneville shook up his long-standing forward lines prior to Wednesday’s matchup with Philadelphia as Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane have no joined forces on the top line. Obviously, this makes them both very nice options and also opens up some value as their new winger, Tomas Fleischmann is still very reasonably priced. While Fleischmann wasn’t able to produce any offense in his first game alongside that dynamic duo, he did look comfortable and is a guy who once potted 27 goals in a season. With Kane now one the top line, Marian Hossa has dropped down to play alongside Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov. While this move is generally accepted as a small fantasy downgrade for all three players, they’re still very dangerous offensively. Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook patrol the point of the Blackhawk’s top power-play unit and both sit tied with 42 points on the season. With Winnipeg sporting an ugly 78.4% penalty kill, they’re both fine options in all formats.

It’s been an ugly second half of the season for the Winnipeg Jets and they’ve now free-fallen all the way to the bottom of the Western Conference with just 63 points. With a matchup awaiting them tonight against the very hungry defending Stanley Cup champs, this doesn’t look like the best time to target them in your cash games. With that said, their top forward line has been sizzling and the Blackhawks do happen to own the NHL’s worst penalty kill since the All-Star break at just 67.2%. With that in mind, targeting the tandem of Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler up-front and Dustin Byfuglien on the blue-line does have some merit. Scheifele has been on an absolute heater; scoring 11 goals and adding four assists in his last 14 games. Meanwhile, Wheeler leads the club with 62 points in 70 games and now has points in three straight games. Byfuglien has proven to be a tremendous weapon for the Jets’ on the point of their top power-play as the big man is not shy about unloading his cannon slapshot. Big Buff has posted 16 goals and 28 assists this season and can “stuff the stat-sheet” in just about every conceivable way.

Chicago Blackhawks

CF%: 50.7, CP60: 109.7, 5×5 Differential: -5
Elite Options: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith
Secondary Options: Marian Hossa, Artemi Panarin, Tomas Fleischmann, Brent Seabrook

Winnipeg Jets

CF%: 51.7, CP60: 106.6, 5×5 Differential: -1
Elite Options: None
Secondary Options: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Drew Stafford, Dustin Byfuglien

Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers – 09:00 PM EDT

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Vancouver Canucks					Edmonton Oilers
			Jacob Markstrom					Cam Talbot
			Record					Record
			27-30-12					28-38-7
Team Stats	2.36	2.86	17.10%	81.60%	Team Stats	2.37	2.93	17.60%	80.80%

The Canucks appear to be just going through the motions at this point of the season. They’ve lost two straight games and now own a 3-6-0 record in their last nine games and have scored just 2.36 goals per game this season. While all of that makes it hard to trust them most nights, tonight’s matchup in Edmonton does give them some intrigue; just tread carefully as both prior meetings between these two teams ended in 2-1 overtime decisions. With the Sedin twins responsibly for a disproportionate amount of this teams’ offense, that’s where you’ll want to focus in cash games. Daniel Sedin leads the team with 58 points in 69 games while Henrik is close behind with 50 points in 61 games. Those two will now be joined by former first-round pick Jake Virtanen on the top line and the 19 year old is starting to show some offensive upside. He’s tallied two goals and two assists in eight games this month and proved he won’t shy away from contact when he dropped the mitts with Filip Forsberg over the weekend. Sven Baertschi and Linden Vey join the Sedin twins up-front on the top power-play unit which puts them into play tonight as well as Edmonton owns a mediocre 80.8% penalty kill. Alex Edler season-ending injury has opened the door for Ben Hutton and Dan Hamhuis to pick up a healthy dose of playing time on the power-play. Hutton has picked up ten assists in 19 games since the All-Star break while Hamhuis owns two goals and three assists in his last seven games and, when healthy, has put up solid offensive numbers throughout his whole career.

For a team that owns an ugly 7-12-2 record over their last 21 games, the Oilers still demand quite a bit of attention when they hit the ice in daily fantasy hockey. Todd McLellan has some work to do during the offseason to sure-up their leaky defense, but there’s no denying the Oilers offensive upside. They just lit up Jake Allen and the St. Louis Blues for six goals on Wednesday and will look to keep things rolling as the Canucks invade the Rexall Place. Connor McDavid stayed hot with a pair of assists against St. Louis and the budding star has now racked up 38 points over his first 36 NHL games. He’ll be joined by Jordan Eberle and Patrick Maroon on the top forward line while also playing alongside Leon Draisaitl and Taylor Hall on the top power-play unit. Hall scored his 23rd goal of the season against St. Louis and leads the club with 58 points this season. Meanwhile, Draisaitl scored his 18th goal of the season in their last game and has thrived on home-ice where he owns 11 goals and 18 assists in 32 games. Alternatively, Mark Letestu may not be know for his offensive game, but he’s fresh off of a three point game against St. Louis and has inherited some playing time on the point of the top power-play. His dirt cheap price-tag makes him a viable source for salary relief in GPPs. On defense, Andrej Sekera soaks up the lions share of the available playing time on the point of the power-play making him the top option.

Vancouver Canucks

CF%: 47.2, CP60: 103.4, 5×5 Differential: -17
Elite Options: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin
Secondary Options: Jake Virtanen, Sven Baertschi, Linden Vey, Dan Hamhuis, Ben Hutton

Edmonton Oilers

CF%: 49.3, CP60: 110.7, 5×5 Differential: -33
Elite Options: Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle
Secondary Options: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Andrej Sekera

Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames – 09:00 PM EDT

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Colorado Avalanche					Calgary Flames
			Semyon Varlamov					Joni Ortio
			Record					Record
			36-31-4					30-35-5
Team Stats	2.65	2.80	19.30%	81.60%	Team Stats	2.73	3.09	15.90%	74.50%

With Minnesota completely falling apart last night in New Jersey, Colorado has the chance to really grab control of the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference if they can leave Calgary with two points tonight. These two teams have split their first two meetings this season, but motivation is definitely on the side of the ‘Avs. With the Flames allowing a league worst 3.09 goals against per game this season and sporting an absolutely dreadful 74.5% penalty kill, there’s plenty to like from Colorado tonight. Matt Duchene leads the way with 56 points in 71 games, has picked up at least one point in each of the last four games, and has already lit the lamp twice against Calgary this season. He’s slated to be joined on the top line by the ageless Jarome Iginla (and Mikhail Grigorenko) leaving Nathan MacKinnon to play alongside Mikkel Boedker and Blake Comeau on the second line. All six guys see plenty of run with the man-advantage making them fine options if their price is right. On defense, Tyson Barrie shoots up my rankings tonight. He has a chance to post the best season of his young career as he sits with 45 points through 67 games. He the quarterback of the top power-play unit and has already dished out three assists in two prior meetings with Calgary this season.

The Flames picked up back-to-back impressive victories to start the week and are proving to be a completely different animal when playing at the Saddledome. Despite sitting just two points out of the cellar in the Pacific Division, they’ve posted a very respectable 20-15-2 home record and shut out this Avalanche squad the last time these two teams squared off. Michael Frolik followed up a hat trick on Monday against St. Louis with another three point effort against Winnipeg on Wendesday (a goal and two assists). With that said, the top line containing Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan is clearly the safest targets. Gaudreau recorded his 70th point of the season with an assist against Winnipeg an has now compiled 23 goals, 29 assists and a plus 24 in 36 home games. Monahan has scored three goals and added three assists over his last four games and has also posted very impressive numbers at the Saddledome; scoring 12 goals and adding 24 assists in 36 games. With T.J. Brodie possibly getting back into action tonight, there is no shortage of fantasy options on the Calgary blue-line. Mark Giordano leads the bunch with 18 goals and 29 assists in 70 games and is the owner of a goal and an assist in two prior meetings with Colorado this season. Dougie Hamilton scored a goal against Colorado in their last meeting and has come on a bit lately with a goal and seven assists in his last nine games.

Colorado Avalanche

CF%: 43.9, CP60: 110.9, 5×5 Differential: -13
Elite Options: Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie
Secondary Options: Jarome Iginla, Blake Comeau, Mikkel Boedker, Erik Johnson

Calgary Flames

CF%: 47.9, CP60: 110.8, 5×5 Differential: -13
Elite Options: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano
Secondary Options: Michael Frolik, Mikael Backlund, Dougie Hamilton