NHL Grind Down: Monday, November 16th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-11-18 17:12:49

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Arizona Coyotes at New York Islanders – 07:00 PM EST

Arizona Coyotes					New York Islanders
			Mike Smith					Jaroslav Halak
			Record					Record
			9-7-1					9-6-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.82	2.88	11.60%	81.30%	Team Stats	2.72	2.28	18.40%	86.00%

Arizona has been one of the biggest surprises of the young NHL season as they’ll lace up their skates tonight with a 9-7-1 record. They lost 5-2 in Columbus on Saturday and will continue their East Coast road trip tonight as they head to Brooklyn to battle the Islanders. While their solid start to the season has been fun for their fans in Phoenix, the lack of true depth as well as top scoring options really makes it hard to believe they’ll keep things going for long. With the Islanders allowing just 2.28 GA/G this season and owning a very solid 86.0% penalty kill, there are plenty of better options on tonight’s six game slate for your cash games. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is my favorite option here, with Martin Hanzal, Max Domi and Anthony Duclair all offering some GPP appeal as well.

The Islanders have struggled a bit lately, but they should be excited to return home after a tough three game road trip, and opening with a matchup against the Coyotes gives them plenty of appeal in this matchup. On paper, this is a mismatch in the Islanders favor and I’m expecting some offensive fireworks from them as Arizona has allowed 2.88 goals against on the season and Mike Smith owns just a 3.10 GAA and .901 SV% and was torched for five goals on just 21 shots in his last outing. John Tavares leads the team with 14 points in 15 games and is the clear #1 offensive options here, with his line-mates (Brock Nelson and Kyle Okposo) both terrific targets as well. Frans Nielsen centers an underrated line containing Anders Lee and Josh Bailey, and with all three also seeing some power-play time, they look like a great GPP stack. On the blue-line, both Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy have grabbed hold of the lions share of the playing time on the point of the power-play, and both players can still be found at very reasonable asking prices across the industry.

Elite Plays

ARI: Oliver Ekman-Larsson
NYI: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, Anders Lee

Secondary Plays

ARI: Martin Hanzal, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Mikkel Boedker
NYI: Frans Nielsen, Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey, Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy

Anaheim Ducks at Carolina Hurricanes – 07:00 PM EST

Anaheim Ducks					Carolina Hurricanes
			Frederik Andersen					Cam Ward
			Record					Record
			5-8-4					6-9-2
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	1.65	2.59	15.70%	90.00%	Team Stats	2.00	2.88	13.80%	80.00%

Just when it looked like the Ducks had finally turned things around, they’ll now head to Carolina having dropped three straight games to fall to 5-8-4 on the young season. While they’ve certainly looked much more explosive offensively, it’s still somewhat hard to trust Anaheim in cash games at this point. Carolina has allowed 2.88 GA/G on the young season, but their 54.8 CF% somewhat surprisingly ranks them as the 2nd best puck possession team in the league. With all of that said, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf combine to form one of the most dangerous offensive duos in the league and both are strong enough plays in this one to justify their big-ticket asking prices. Rickard Rakell looks to be the “lucky Duck” to join them as the left-wing on the top line, and that fact on its own makes him a terrific value play. Bruce Boudreau has been desperately hoping for some secondary scoring from the Ryan Kesler line, but they’ve simply been too inconsistent to trust as anything other than GPP fliers. Defensively, the story remains unchanged; Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm are safe, yet unspectacular options on the blue-line if their price is right.

Not much was expected from the Hurricanes this season, but despite their rather poor record, they’ve actually rated out very well by Corsi numbers and their 24.9 SA/G is actually the best in the NHL. However, they’ve now lost five of their last six games and simply don’t look to have a deep enough roster to have playoff aspirations this season. As expected, Eric Staal leads the offensive charge for the ‘Canes as he’s already posted four goals and eight assists through 17 games. He’s slated to be joined by his brother Jordan and Elias Lindholm on the top line. The newly acquired Kris Versteeg started the season on a roll, but he’s struggling to settle into a permanent role and has been held off the scoresheet in each of the last five games. On defense, Justin Faulk has posted 11 points already on the young season and has logged over 25 minutes of ice-time per game thus far solidifying him as a fine target. However, with the Ducks owning the league’s #1 penalty kill, you’ll need to temper your expectations from the Hurricanes tonight.

Elite Plays

ANA: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry
CAR: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk

Secondary Plays

ANA: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg, Carl Hagelin, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler
CAR: Elias Lindholm, Jeff Skinner, Kris Versteeg

Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens – 07:30 PM EST

Vancouver Canucks					Montreal Canadiens
			Ryan Miller					Carey Price
			Record					Record
			7-6-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.83	2.56	15.80%	79.20%	Team Stats	3.50	2.11	25.40%	88.30%

NOTE: Montreal’s updated statistics will be updated soon!

The Canucks have lost five of their last six games and they’re grueling seven game road trip continues tonight in Montreal. Obviously, with the Canadians owning a 13-3-2 record to start the season, this is not an appealing matchup for Vancouver. The Canucks did stop the Canadians undefeated streak earlier this season, winning 5-1 in Vancouver; but that could very well work against them tonight. I’m not going to be targeting anyone from Vancouver in this matchup in cash games, but the Sedin brothers are still an elite tandem and lead this team in scoring once again. They’re joined by Jannik Hansen on the top line and he’s chipped in 11 points and is a +10 in 18 games this season. Alex Edler has been a solid source of production from the blue-line to start the season as well, but again, this is about as tough of a matchup as the Canucks will have all season.

The Canadians are clearly one of the best teams in the NHL this season, but the depth that makes them an elite team has also made them somewhat tough to dissect on a nightly basis on a DFS basis. Montreal now has ten players with double-digit points through 18 games and their 2.11 GA/G is the second best in the NHL. Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher have combined for 23 goals, 26 assists and a +26 as members of the Canadians top forward line this season and, with Pacioretty posting rather drastic home vs road splits last season, they’re definitely the top targets here. On the blue-line, it’s a two-headed monster of P.K. Subban and Andrei Markov that deserve your fantasy attention. Both defenseman log substantial time on the point of the #1 power-play and both are ranked in the top four in the league in defensive scoring.

Elite Plays

VAN: None
MON: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher, P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov

Secondary Plays

VAN: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Jannik Hansen, Radim Vrbata, Alex Edler
MON: David Desharnais, Alex Galchenyuk, Dale Weise, Tomas Fleischmann

Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators – 07:30 PM EST

Detroit Red Wings					Ottawa Senators
			Jimmy Howard					Craig Anderson
			Record					Record
			8-8-1					8-5-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.18	2.47	17.90%	83.90%	Team Stats	2.82	2.94	20.80%	73.80%

Detroit has failed to gain any traction this season, and head to Ottawa tonight owning a mediocre 8-8-1 record. While they were ecstatic to welcome Pavel Datsyuk back to the lineup on Friday, they’ve dropped both games since he’s returned. However, his return should also coincide with the end of their puck possession struggles and his elite defensive skills can only help in the defensive zone as well. Upon his return, Datsyuk joined Henrik Zetterberg and Justin Abdelkader on Detroit’s #1 line, but it looks like he’ll slide down to center the second line which allows Dylan Larkin to return to the wing of the top line. Zetterberg/Larkin/Abdelkader proved to be an offensive force for the Wings to start the season and Datsyuk’s presence on the second line should do wonders for both Tomas Tatar and Darren Helm. With Ottawa being one of the fastest paced teams in the league (111.30 CP60) and owning an abysmal 73.7% penalty kill, both of those top two lines are fine options. The Senators poor penalty kill also brings Gustav Nyquist and point-men Niklas Kronwall and Mike Green firmly into play, as well.

Ottawa came up short in a shootout against the Rangers on Saturday, but still enter tonight’s game in second place in the Atlantic Division. These two teams have split their two previous meetings this season, but the Senators open as a -140 favorite by Vegas standards. Their top line of Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris and Mark Stone may be slated for a large dose of Pavel Datsyuk frustrating defense, but that trio has been rolling since the all-star break last season and are each averaging nearly a point per game on young season. Alternatively, Bobby Ryan has already scored six goals and added nine assists and teams up with Mike Zibanejad to give Ottawa a very solid secondary scoring attack. Defensively, Erik Karlsson has more offensive freedom than any other blue-liner in the league, and it shows; as he’s already racked up 17 points and 42 SOG in 17 games.

Elite Plays

DET: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader, Mike Green
OTT: Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson

Secondary Plays

DET: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Tatar, Dylan Larkin, Gustav Nyquist, Niklas Kronwall
OTT: Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Mika Zibanejad, Milan Michalek

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers – 07:30 PM EST

Tampa Bay Lightning					Florida Panthers
			Ben Bishop					Roberto Luongo
			Record					Record
			8-8-3					7-7-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.42	2.42	18.60%	79.30%	Team Stats	2.76	2.59	23.30%	75.00%

After losing in a shootout against the Panthers on Saturday, the Lightning will get another crack at them tonight in Miami. After starting the season 3-0-0, Tampa has struggled since, going 5-8-3 over the last 16 games. While the Lightning have been a bit less effective on the road in recent seasons, and look to be struggling to match their impressive results from last season, they’re still loaded with too much offensive firepower to ignore. As expected, Steven Stamkos leads the way with nine goals and five assists through the first 19 games. He’ll be joined by Ryan Callahan and Vladislav Namestnikov on the top line, making both viable (and rather inexpensive) options tonight. Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov consistent production on the second line was one of the keys to Tamps Bay’s success last season, but that very dangerous duo hasn’t lived up to expectations this season and are now without their third-wheel in Ondrej Palat. Alex Killorn is slated to fill in for Palat on the left side of that second line and all three offer plenty of upside. On the blue-line, Victor Hedman looks like a potential Norris Trophy contender and I love him as the power-play point man against the Panthers ugly 75.0% penalty kill. Alternatively, you can save a few bucks and give his partner Anton Stralman a look as he also logs heavy minutes with the man advantage.

After falling just short in the Eastern Conference playoff race last season, this up-and-coming Panthers team entered the 2015-16 season with the expectation that they’d finally break through this season. However, they’ve been treading water a bit this season and currently own an uninspiring 7-7-3 record after 17 games. They’ll open a big five game homestand tonight in Miami, with the next 10 days likely really controlling which way their season is going to go. They’ll face a Lightning team tonight who they defeated over the weekend, but you’ll want to tread carefully here as Tampa owns a pretty significant puck possession advantage by Corsi standards here. The Panthers will be very pleased to welcome Aleksander Barkov into the lineup tonight and he’ll jump right back to centering the top line alongside the very talented Jonathan Huberdeau and the ageless-wonder Jaromir Jagr. Jagr leads the team with seven goals and six assists in 15 games and that top line is easily the most attractive options from a fantasy standpoint here. With the Lightning struggling with their penalty kill to start the season, it’s also prudent to target both of Florida’s capable power-play units. Defensively, both Brian Campbell and Aaron Ekblad soak up the bulk of the available power-play minutes and both players are off to very solid starts to the 2015-16 season.

Elite Plays

TAM: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman
FLA: Jaromir Jagr, Aaron Ekblad

Secondary Plays

TAM: Ryan Callahan, Nikita Kucherov, Vladislav Namestnikov, Alex Killorn
FLA: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck

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