NHL Grind Down: Thursday, January 7th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Washington Capitals at New York Islanders – 07:00 PM EST
| Washington Capitals | New York Islanders | ||||||||
 | Braden Holtby |  | Jaroslav Halak | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 29-7-3 | 22-13-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.13 | 2.15 | 25.80% | 84.30% | Team Stats | 2.75 | 2.43 | 18.80% | 85.60% |
For those of you waiting for the return of defenseman John Carlson, it looks like the wait will be a bit longer. Head coach Barry Trotz has ruled out Carlson for tonight’s game as reported by Capitals beat writer Isabelle Khurshudyan. Matt Niskanen would be the play here as he gets all of the top minutes on the power play and has an assist in each of his last four games. Up front Alexander Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom are the top line and skate top power play as well. This line has accounted for six of the Capitals last 16 goals over the last five games. Evgeny Kuznetsov may be the play here as he rounds out the top power play unit and has lit the lamp twice to go along with four assists in the last four games. Andre Burakovsky makes a decent play to pair with Kuznetsov as he has two goals in the last four games and should have some room to maneuver on the road tonight against the Islanders.
With the Capitals being 8-1-1 in their last ten games and the fact that they have a +39 goal differential, the Islanders should find it a bit difficult tonight. The Islanders power play has scored three goals in the last nine chances and that should bode well tonight with the Capitals giving up three or more chances in nine of their last ten games. Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen own the hot hands by combining for 4 goals and five assists over the last four games. Nick Leddy is in the midst of a five game scoring streak by contributing a goal and five assists over that time frame. John Tavares and Josh Bailey round out the top power play unit with Tavares having a solid two goals and two assist in his last four games. Bailey however only has 19 points on the season and has a goal and two assists in his last six games. To be a bit contrarian you can select Anders Lee for GPP’s but make sure you pair him with either Bailey or Tavares or both as he skates top line with them. Lee also has 19 points and can be counted on to have some upside at a discounted price.
Elite Plays
WSH: Alexander Ovechkin
NYI: John Tavares
Secondary Plays
WSH: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen, T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom
NYI: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen, Josh Bailey, Anders Lee, Nick Leddy
Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators – 07:30 PM EST
| Florida Panthers | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Roberto Luongo |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 24-12-4 | 19-15-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.65 | 2.13 | 17.30% | 81.40% | Team Stats | 2.78 | 2.90 | 19.40% | 76.30% |
The Florida Panthers have captured the attention of the NHL by winning their last ten games and taking over the lead in the Atlantic conference. While winning ten games in a row is good I think the fact that the Panthers have only given up two goals or more just twice during that streak is an even more amazing feat. Think about that for a minute. That means in eight of the last ten games they have given up a goal or less. As with most good teams, the top line of Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau lead the team in points. Huberdeau has been an assist machine of late with nine of his ten points over the last eight games have come from dishing the puck off to someone else to light the lamp while Barkov has accumulated five goals and four assists in the last 16 games. Jagr has been productive of late as well by posting five goals to go along with three assists in his last nine games. Nailing down the second line for Florida is a bit tougher as there are basically two lines you can choose from and would only be recommended for GPP play. Brandon Pirri has a goal and two assists in his last three games and skates on a line with Nick Bjugstad and Logan Shaw who have not done too much of late. At least Bjugstad has an excuse as he just returned from an injury just two games ago. The more intriguing line would be that of Jussi Jokinen, Vincent Trochek and Reilly Smith as they all have two points in their last five games except Trochek who has one. Again, this is strictly a GPP play and only because the Senators can be a little lackadaisical at times. Aaron Ekblad and Dmitry Kulikov handle the points on the power play and could be in play tonight but there may be better options to go with tonight.
Although Ottawa has been slumping of late they still have a 7-2 record in their last nine home games. If the Panthers have had a weakness in the last few games it is probably their penalty kill where they have given up four of their last six goals while being short-handed. The Senators have scored just nine goals in their last five games which would make players like Bobby Ryan and Erik Karlsson look good by virtue of having four points each over that time frame. Kyle Turris and Mark Stone skate with Ryan on both the top line and top power play unit but have not had the production as they have combined for only four assists in the last five games. I am not sure why the Senators keep Zack Smith on the top power play unit as he only has ten points all season and has just tallied one goal in the last eleven games. Look for a change here in the near future. Ottawa’s second line is a bit of a mystery as Mike Hoffman, Mika Zinabejad and Milan Michalek have all scored two goals and an assist each over the last six games. Hoffman leads the team in goals with 19 and should be paired up with one of his other line mates if you go that route tonight.
Elite Plays
FLA: None
OTT: Erik Karlsson
H3. Secondary Plays
FLA: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad, Dmitry Kulikov, Brandon Pirri
OTT: Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman
Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild – 08:00 PM EST
| Philadelphia Flyers | Minnesota Wild | ||||||||
 | Steve Mason |  | Devan Dubnyk | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 16-15-7 | 21-11-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.16 | 2.68 | 16.80% | 78.00% | Team Stats | 2.69 | 2.33 | 18.30% | 78.90% |
The Flyers come into this one losing their last five road games and if that wasn’t bad enough they have also surrendered power play goals in six of their last seven road games. Philadelphia shuffled up their line a bit last game and the move seemed to work as the second line of Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier and Matt Read as both Schenn and Couturier had multiple point nights in the Flyers 4-3 win over Montreal at home last Tuesday. The move was supposed to help out Claude Giroux as he has gone stone cold of late by virtue of scoring just one goal in his last eight games. Wayne Simmonds and Jakub Voracek fill out the Flyers top line and for all intents and purposes have been producing in the last five games by averaging at least a point per game. Shayne Gostisbehere continues to be productive by evidence of his two point game the other night. Gostisbehere saw his ice time dip below 18 minutes for the first time in six games last time out as he was on the ice for less than 15 minutes against Montreal. This shouldn’t be too much of a concern though as since he has been called up has been Philadelphia’s best defenseman
Thanks to a hat trick by Zach Parise the Minnesota Wild were able to pull out a win in Columbus Tuesday night by a score of 4-2. That was the first time the Wild have scored more than three goals over their last nine games and could be on track to repeat that feat tonight. We mentioned how the Flyers have been giving up some power play goals of late so it makes sense that the Minnesota power play would be a good place to start tonight. Thomas Vanek, Mikael Granlund and Ryan Suter along with Parise make up the top power unit. Mikko Koivu is listed as questionable and although he has been released from the hospital, he is still listed as day to day with a lower body injury. The in game injury prompted head coach Mike Yeo to use two defenseman on the power play as opposed to just one which would open the door for Matthew Dumba to get some extra minutes tonight. Again, Dumba will only see the extra minutes if Koivu can’t go tonight. Check in with the Wild beat writer @Russostrib for updates throughout the day to stay on top of this situation. I wouldn’t be opposed to using Charlie Coyle tonight either as he had four goals and four assists in his last eight games before going scoreless in the last two games.
Elite Plays
PHL: None
MIN: Zach Parise
Secondary Plays
PHL: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere, Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn
MIN: Thomas Vanek, Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars – 08:30 PM EST
| Winnipeg Jets | Dallas Stars | ||||||||
 | Ondrej Pavelec |  | Kari Lehtonen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 19-19-2 | 28-10-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.70 | 2.85 | 15.20% | 77.00% | Team Stats | 3.45 | 2.64 | 22.40% | 80.50% |
The Jets finish up their five game road trip as the roll in to Dallas to face the Stars in this Central division clash. On the surface this one looks easy as Dallas sits at the top of the division while the Jets find themselves in the basement. The top line of Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little and Drew Stafford have been the most productive over the last nine games and are border line cash plays tonight. Wheeler has been working on his Jonathan Huberdeau impression as he has collected 12 assists in his last ten games while Little has netted four goals to go along with five assists over the last nine games. Stafford has picked up it up in recent games by evidence of scoring three goals and assisting on two others in the last five games. The Stars have switched up their lines a bit so normally it may make sense to take a team’s second line on the road, especially going against freshly made lines as maybe the chemistry doesn’t quite click at first. Unfortunately the Jets have turned into a one line team as neither the second line of Andrew Ladd, Adam Lowry and Alex Burmistrov or the third line of Mathieu Perreault, Mark Schiefele and Nikolaj Ehlers have done much to write home about lately. If I had to choose a line to enter in a GPP I would go with the third line and include Perreault as he has been seeing time on the top power play unit. Dustin Byfuglien has been a bit of a disappointment so far as he has only collected just 23 points in the first 40 games which is easily his lowest point per game production since his last season in Chicago back in 2010.
The sky is surely falling in Dallas, or at least that’s what head coach Lindy Ruff would want you to believe. After three straight losses on the road and no points between them, Ruff has split up Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. You read that right, the bread and butter of this team has been split up. I get it, he’s trying to make up two solid scoring lines but by doing it at home when you have the last change is almost ridiculous. This is a classic example of why the Stars won’t win the cup this year. Ruff does this all the time which is probably why his teams have only made it to the quarterfinals in only three of the last eight years. Oh and by the way, if you qualify for the playoffs, the first round is the quarterfinal round. Chemistry is king in this league and if you don’t believe me, just ask the Washington Capitals or the Florida Panthers. Ok, enough of the ranting, let’s take a look at what needs to be done tonight. Dallas should be able to score against the Jets and more than likely both lines should have plenty of opportunities. Benn will now skate with Jason Spezza and Valeri Nichuskin while Seguin will center Patrick Sharp and Mattias Janmark. I am seeing where Ruff has also changed up the power play a bit as it looks like Spezza has been replaced by Cody Eakin on the top unit. We have seen this before and folks, Eakin is just not that good. I think the smart move here is to take the Seguin line as at least you get him and Sharp getting the extra minutes on the power play. On defense John Klingberg is the selection as he is back on track and in the midst of a five game scoring streak while manning the point on the power play. Winnipeg has given up four or more power play opportunities in four of their last five games so look for Dallas to score at least of that variety tonight.
Elite Plays
WIN: Blake Wheeler
DAL: Jamie Benn Tyler Seguin
Secondary Plays
WIN: Bryan Little, Drew Stafford
DAL: Patrick Sharp, Jason Spezza, John Klingberg
Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames – 09:00 PM EST
| Arizona Coyotes | Calgary Flames | ||||||||
 | Mike Smith |  | Jonas Hiller | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 19-16-4 | 19-18-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.82 | 3.15 | 17.20% | 78.60% | Team Stats | 2.64 | 3.10 | 12.20% | 74.50% |
Arizona finds themselves in second place in the Pacific division and needs to come out of Calgary with a least a point tonight to stay ahead of them. The Coyotes have scored 15 goals in their last four games with five of them coming via the power play. The problem is that Calgary has been very disciplined of late and has killed off 14 of their last 15 penalties in the last ten games. On any given night you could make a case for any of Coyotes top three lines as being ‘the top line’ but for now we will assume that Max Domi, Mikkel Boedker and Antoine Vermette hold that title. Both Vermette and Boedker play on the team’s top power play unit and each have had at least six points in their last six games. If you want to go with the hot hand then Shane Doan is your guy. Doan technically skates on the third line, which is ok for tonight especially since he skates on the top power play line. His eight goals in the last five games have made him one of the hottest players in the league. Brad Richardson can be used with Doan but only in GPP’s as he has a goal and six assists in his last seven games. I mentioned something about chemistry in the Dallas write up and it appears that Doan and Richardson have developed some of that. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is third on the team in scoring and makes a good play on the back line tonight by seeing the top power play minutes to go along with scoring eight points in his last nine games.
Lucky for us Lindy Ruff is not running the Calgary Flames as he would have had Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan run out of town by now for not scoring in the last five games. To be fair the Flames are in worse shape than the Stars as they only have two forwards that are actually worth anything. The injury to Jiri Hudler only compacts the problem as now Gaudreau and Monahan will have to do it all by themselves. Gaudreau is almost a must play at home against an Arizona team that has given up eight power play goals in their last six games. With a stat like that it’s no wonder that the Coyotes are just seven goals away from giving up the most in the league. Joe Colborne skates on the top line with the aforementioned two and surprisingly has been the most productive which isn’t saying much considering he has three points in his last eight games. T.J. Brodie has seven assists in his last seven games and also gets the top minutes on the power play which would make him a viable option at the defensive position tonight. Speaking of defense, Mark Giordano has four goals and seven assists in his last eight games and shouldn’t be overlooked tonight. If you want a sleeper at defense then Dennis Wideman may be your guy. Wideman has tallied an assist in each of the last two games and has not had negative points on the plus/minus sites in his last 20 games.
Elite Plays
ARZ: None
CGY: Johnny Gaudreau
Secondary Plays
ARZ: Max Domi, Shane Doan, Mikkel Boedker, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Antoine Vermette
CGY: Sean Monahan, T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano, Joe Colborne