NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 30th - Page Two
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Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Nashville Predators | ||||||||
 | Frederik Andersen |  | Pekka Rinne | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 36-24-15 | 39-26-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.08 | 2.79 | 23.30% | 82.40% | Team Stats | 2.95 | 2.71 | 20.00% | 80.70% |
Maple Leafs 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.2 CF% / 53.1 GF% / 52.6 xGF%
Predators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.8 CF% / 51.1 GF% / 52.1 xGF%
The young Leafs have a nice pre-postseason prep tonight in Nashville. Look for the Predators to look to slow things down and constrict the space available to the Toronto forward group. As it is, the Leafs have seen their scoring chances-for and high-danger shot attempts-for per 60 at 5v5 drop a bit over the past few weeks. Their CF% isn’t bad, per se, but it’s also not overly impressive at the moment. There is plenty of talent up front for Toronto, of course. How Nashville deploys their defensive assignments will be of interest. We DFSers know the trouble of trying to pick which Toronto line to focus on, and the same goes for the deployment of top defenders in the real game. It comes down to the lines of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Zach Hyman and Mitch Marner, Tyler Bozak, and James van Riemsdyk. With how well Matthews and Nylander have been playing, a safe assumption could be that the Ryan Johansen line goes out against Matthews while Roman Josi plays against the Bozak line. All told, there’s really no great matchups to exploit against Nashville – they are an overall tough team to play against, especially in their own barn. The hole in the fence is Pekka Rinne most of the time, though he’s been playing well, for the most part, in the month of March. Over his past 10 games he’s given up 24 goals, with just eight of those coming in his past five. He’s still a beatable goalie against high-danger shot attempts, though the Leafs aren’t producing them in the quantities they used to. The Matthews-Nylander-Hyman line has been the best at generating such shot attempts, so they could be the line to target. The matchup is poor and based on Toronto’s recent results, this may be a secondary-play type of night.
Even with Frederik Andersen tentatively set to return to the lineup, the Predators have a nice spot. They’re back home after a swing to the East Coast, playing their third game in four nights. The Leafs defense is not overly impressive at the moment and with a vulnerability in net, the Predators’ top line could pounce. Toronto’s 5v5 xGA/60 is 2.78, one of the higher numbers in the league. The team plays wide open and has some questionable defenders on the blueline. Other than Nashville’s top line, the third line of Calle Jarnkrok, James Neal, and Kevin Fiala is in a good spot. The line is solid in puck possession and shot generation, and with the game in Nashville there is plenty of upside. This is a solid GPP line to consider stacking, especially due to its reduced price. Nashville’s blueline has been quite productive of late, with Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, and Ryan Ellis all contributing in various capacities. Ellis in particular has been playing quite well. While he may lack the same upside as Josi, his floor is sound and he comes a bit cheaper than Subban. We’ve seen Nashville defenders post strong games plenty over the years, and Toronto has struggled all season to slow offensive defensemen.
Maple Leafs Elite Plays: None
Maple Leafs Secondary Plays:Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Nazem Kadri
Predators Elite Plays:Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis
Predators Secondary Plays:Ryan Johansen, James Neal, Calle Jarnkrok, Kevin Fiala, P.K. Subban
Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets
| Anaheim Ducks | Winnipeg Jets | ||||||||
 | Jonathan Bernier |  | Connor Hellebuyck | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 42-23-11 | 35-35-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.63 | 2.41 | 17.70% | 84.90% | Team Stats | 2.94 | 3.16 | 18.30% | 76.90% |
Ducks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.5 CF% / 59 GF% / 53 xGF%
Jets 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.1 CF% / 48.6 GF% / 50.1 xGF%
The surging Ducks continue their march through the Canadian provinces as they pay a visit to the Jets. Now that many have cooled off after the late scratch (and by late I mean NBA style late, about a minute before the puck dropped) on Ryan Getzlaf in Anaheim’s last game, it’s time to take a fresh look at the Ducks with the idea Getzlaf may not go. His injury doesn’t sound serious, but then again, he has been dinged up late in the year and scratched the past few seasons. Antoine Vermette would become a nice value play should Getzlaf sit (and it’s announced early enough) as Vermette tends to slot in to the top line in Getzlaf’s stead. Anaheim also has a playoff spot locked up, though seeding is in the air, so if Getzlaf does go at less than 100% he could see limited minutes. It’s too bad as Getzlaf has been on a tear. His absence didn’t slow down Patrick Eaves or Rickard Rakell last game, as his linemates still found the scoresheet. Eaves has been a great floor play on the top Anaheim line, and he typically skates with lower ownership than his linemates. He has five goals over his past five games and his price has barely moved on FD, keeping him as a top mid-tier play. Winnipeg is a middle of the road draw in terms of forwards-vs-defense matchups, and goaltending can best be summed up as the shrugging guy emoji. Connor Hellebuyck has been mostly awful in the month of March, and while Michael Hutchinson has been better, he’s a known quantity at this point (an average backup). Jet goalies have shown up in big games, but the inconsistency out of young Hellebuyck has mostly been replaced by consistently poor play. The Ducks have one of the highest 5v5 xGF/60 (2.72), though the Jets’ respectable defense and Anaheim’s road woes keep them from being a slam-dunk. Anaheim’s top line will likely need to contend with Jacob Trouba and “(player-popup)Blake Wheeler”:/players/blake-wheeler-17157’s line at 5v5, so with a questionable Getzlaf, a step down the lineup may be the way to approach Anaheim. Ryan Kesler continues his strong campaign and linemates Jakob Silfverberg and Andrew Cogliano have been good as well. Silfverberg in particular is a strong play due to consistent shot volume. Corey Perry made an appearance against Vancouver to remind us all he’s still playing this year. Though he’s having a down year, his shooting percentage is about half of what it has been the past few years. Some age-based decline is in play but eventually some puck luck should improve his fortunes as he is still getting the puck on net. Of course, the best way to attack Winnipeg is on the man advantage. The Jets are a very undisciplined team (Winnipeg has been short-handed the most of any team this year) and their penalty kill is poor. Getzlaf should resume his top unit role assuming he is back, which elevates both he and “(player-popup)Patrick Eaves”:/players/patrick-eaves-17232’ floors. Similarly, Ryan Kesler and Jakob Silfverberg stay together on the top unit, and given some of the questions about the top line’s on-ice matchups, enhances the appeal of a Kesler-Silfverberg combo. Cam Fowler remains the blueliner with the premier power play spot, but he is at risk of finishing his second straight calendar month without a goal. Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm also see time on the advantage, though both have low floors with low ceilings. Brandon Montour can never be considered a lock to be in the lineup, it seems, but makes for a great low-cost flyer on the blueline, even if his power play role gets pushed out.
While the matchup is knowingly good for the Ducks, the Jets’ offense has a sneaky good matchup on their home ice. The biggest obstacle will likely be a red-hot Jonathan Bernier, who has stopped a cool 286 of 302 (95%) shots faced over his past 10 starts since filling in for John Gibson. Gibson appears to be healthy again and will need to play again at some point before the playoffs. He’ll surely have some rust to work off so if he draws the start, bump the Jets up a bit. The Ducks offense is known to be lethal right now, but quietly Bernier has been bailing out a defense that has an elevated rate of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts allowed at 5v5. On home ice the Jets tend to put Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, and Nikolaj Ehlers against the tougher opposing forward lines while sheltering Bryan Little, Patrik Laine, and Mathieu Perreault. Anaheim’s forward lines are relatively strong, as Antoine Vermette is a solid third liner, but the explosiveness of Winnipeg’s second line provides solid upside. Winnipeg’s blueline welcome Dustin Byfuglien back in their last game, though he may not be fully healthy as he has just three shots on goal over his past three games. The less expensive Jacob Trouba is also back in the fold and is a nice floor play based on his aggregate shots and blocks (though he too hasn’t been shooting much the past few games). The return of these two defenders to 20+ minutes per night and their power play spots takes out Josh Morrissey as an upside value play. Every day can’t be like Sunday for this Morrissey.
Ducks Elite Plays:Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Kesler, Patrick Eaves, Ryan Getzlaf (Q)
Ducks Secondary Plays:Rickard Rakell, Corey Perry, Andrew Cogliano, Cam Fowler, Antoine Vermette (if Getzlaf is out)
Jets Elite Plays:Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault
Jets Secondary Plays:Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers, Jacob Trouba
Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild
| Ottawa Senators | Minnesota Wild | ||||||||
 | Craig Anderson |  | Alex Stalock | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 41-25-9 | 44-24-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.57 | 2.58 | 17.90% | 80.50% | Team Stats | 3.19 | 2.52 | 20.10% | 82.10% |
Senators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.6 CF% / 48.4 GF% / 48.4 xGF%
Wild 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.9 CF% / 44.8 GF% / 55.2 xGF%
It’s an interesting spot with the Ottawa Senators. On the one hand, the matchup isn’t great for Senator forwards. Despite the outcome against Washington two nights ago and “(player-popup)Devan Dubnyk”:/players/devan-dubnyk-14291’s struggles, the defensive numbers look good for the Wild. On the other hand, Alex Stalock is starting and the Senators do have some offensive weapons that can take advantage of a leaky Wild team. As Boggs noted in Tuesday’s Grinders Live, however, pinpointing where the production is going to come from with Ottawa can be tricky. The main talent is split among the top three lines at 5v5 and the correlations really only apply to the power play. With Minnesota a strong penalty killing team that doesn’t take many penalties, that doesn’t really play well. Derick Brassard has been strong in terms of 5v5 CF%, and with the Wild struggling a bit there of late, he and Mark Stone could sneak in a few looks. Kyle Turris figures to draw Ryan Suter and the top Minnesota forward line at 5v5, so his outlook is dimmed a bit (though he does play on that power play). This is a highly volatile matchup for the key Senators; Minnesota’s struggles and Alex Stalock in net could mean a big game, but the Wild’s strong defense keeps the floor low. That suits the Senators better as secondary plays, though Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman remain viable in all formats.
The Minnesota offense was forced in to a track meet of sorts in their last game, against Washington. We’ve seen Minnesota look to slow the pace down to try and help out the struggling Devan Dubnyk. That should continue tonight with Alex Stalock in net, an unknown quantity that is likely treated as a risk by Minnesota. With Zach Parise likely to miss the game (day-to-day, bad face) the lines may look a little different than usual. From a DFS perspective hopefully Nino Niederreiter moves up from the third line to play next to Eric Staal. Staal has been great again after a bit of a lull, and while Charlie Coyle apparently doesn’t exist right now, Coyle and the line would be very cheap. For much of the year we’ve seen Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu, and Jason Zucker provide a scoring punch, but the line has been quiet. Zucker is still shooting but the other two have seen their contributions slow a bit. Ottawa’s defense has been degrading a bit lately. They actually have the highest CA/60 at 5v5 of all the teams playing tonight, though their high-danger shots allowed aren’t excessive (but still elevated). With Craig Anderson allowing multiple goals in each of his last nine games, this is a nice theoretical get-well spot for the Wild, but they’ll need to turn the playbook back a few weeks.
Senators Elite Plays:Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone
Senators Secondary Plays:Derick Brassard
Wild Elite Plays:Eric Staal, Nino Niederreiter (if on Staal’s line), Ryan Suter
Wild Secondary Plays:Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker, Jason Pominville, Jared Spurgeon, Matthew Dumba
San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers
| San Jose Sharks | Edmonton Oilers | ||||||||
 | Martin Jones |  | Cam Talbot | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 43-26-7 | 42-25-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.66 | 2.47 | 17.20% | 80.50% | Team Stats | 2.85 | 2.53 | 22.40% | 80.80% |
Sharks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.6 CF% / 52.1 GF% / 51.2 xGF%
Oilers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.3 CF% / 54.5 GF% / 50 xGF%
The Sharks threw it back a little bit in their last game, providing something of a late night hammer. Tonight’s matchup could go a few different ways, perfectly in line with the uncertainty that comes with rostering Sharks. On the one hand, San Jose is a very strong possession team and has been just fine and generating quality scoring chances. They’ll be going against a vulnerable defense and a workhorse goalie that has had a few bad outings of late. On the other hand, the best Sharks line will likely be matched up at 5v5 against Connor McDavid, and McDavid has been very strong at reducing opportunities for opposing lines. San Jose also has some uncertainty in the line assignments to work around. Logan Couture missed last game after having a tooth (teeth?) vaporized by an errant puck, and a suspension to a grinder got Kevin Labanc back in the lineup. He skated on the top line, and if he can stick there he would be a great value play. The Sharks also gave Labanc Couture’s spot on the top power play unit. Patrick Marleau still skates on the top unit but his 5v5 upside would diminish some if Couture is out again. With Edmonton below average on the backend, even someone like Tomas Hertl on the third line could make for a viable one-off value play, albeit one with a low floor. San Jose has an impressive 5v5 xGF/60 while Edmonton’s xGA/60 is also on the high side, so in theory it’s a nice spot for the Sharks.
Discussions around Edmonton forwards typically begin and end with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The two have rekindled their fire and have scored in eight straight games. While they will likely be out against San Jose’s top line, this will be a high-event game that plays right into McDavid and Drai’s hands. In fact, the Edmonton second line should be in a favorable spot, especially if Logan Couture is out. Though there is never a comfort with rostering Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, and Jordan Eberle (away from McDavid), Nugent-Hopkins has points in three straight and Eberle is shooting again. The San Jose second line also plays a quick style that leads to shots at both ends of the ice. Perhaps the biggest risk for the Edmonton second line is getting caught on the ice at the same time as Marc-Edouard Vlasic, a shutdown defender that the Oil will likely try to keep McDavid away from. He should see most of his time against McDavid, however. Overall the Sharks have a middle of the road xGA/60 and the shot attempts they allow skew to the lower quality side. But, again, the pace of the game should be high which can open things up and Martin Jones has allowed 14 goals over his past three starts. If looking to pair a defender with an Oilers stack, Oscar Klefbom correlates better with the McDavid line and Andrej Sekera with Nugent-Hopkins.
Sharks Elite Plays:Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns, Logan Couture (Q)
Sharks Secondary Plays:Kevin Labanc (if on top line), Patrick Marleau, Tomas Hertl
Oilers Elite Plays:Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl
Oilers Secondary Plays:Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Patrick Maroon, Oscar Klefbom