NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 30th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-03-31 02:02:26

Jump to Page 1 2

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes

Columbus Blue Jackets					Carolina Hurricanes
			Sergei Bobrovsky					Cam Ward
			Record					Record
			49-19-7					34-27-14
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.11	2.27	20.60%	82.80%	Team Stats	2.64	2.77	18.00%	85.20%

Blue Jackets 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.3 CF% / 59.6 GF% / 50.9 xGF%
Hurricanes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.2 CF% / 49.7 GF% / 50.7 xGF%

One of the most potent offenses in the league, the Jackets have scored 28 goals over their past 10 games. Over the last two weeks, however, things have slowed down a bit more as Columbus has netted just 11 goals over their past five games, including one four goal game against New Jersey. That is to say, it feels like Columbus is shifting into playoff mode. The past 25 games have seen so-so possession numbers at 5v5 and the power play has struggled a bit. Scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts are still healthy, and against Cam Ward tonight, Columbus could very well see an uptick in realized production. Carolina can stifle production and with the game on home ice, they could slow this game down. We’ve seen Carolina allow some heavy shot volume against high-event teams, so there are some pieces to work with. Expect Jordan Staal to work primarily against Columbus’s top line with a bit of time on the second line as well. That limits the upside of Cam Atkinson, Alex Wennberg, and Nick Foligno, especially with Wennberg not being the strongest center. One line that has some major intrigue is the third line. John Tortorella’s favorite yo-yo, Brandon Saad, saw a healthy amount of playing time with Sam Gagner and Scott Hartnell. Gagner and Hartnell have been fantastic at 5v5 this year despite limited minutes, with Hartnell pacing the team in 5v5 points/60. Gagner has been strong in sheltered minutes and with Saad’s high-end talent and shot generation, this line could be quite effective even in a restricted TOI situation.

There is a looming shadow of Russian origin (in Soviet Russia, shadow looms you!). Not talking politics, of course, as the Russian shadow belongs to Sergei Bobrovsky. His dominance poses a major issue for Carolina tonight. While the Hurricanes offense has been playing well and finally – consistently – putting the puck in the net, Bobrovsky enters the game completely dialed in. There will come a time when the Columbus defense will not be bailed out by Bobrovsky (and you just know it’s going to be round one of the playoffs). Columbus has an elevated xGA/60 (2.8 compared to a GA/60 of 1.58), allowing opposing offenses to take plenty of shot attempts with many reaching the net, and have a higher rate of high-danger shot attempts allowed. These issues make opposing teams interesting GPP targets when Bobrovsky is in the net as the door is open until Bob slams it shut. Carolina’s offense is playing well at the moment and they maintain strong numbers with regards to shot attempts-for, scoring chances-for, and high-danger shot attempts-for at 5v5. The ‘Canes mixed their lines up a little bit over the past few games, so there are two lines to focus on here: Jeff Skinner, Derek Ryan, and Lee Stempniak, and Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm, and Jordan Staal. For DFS purposes it is beneficial that the Staal-Aho-Lindholm line is back together, as this trio has been great. The Skinner-Ryan-Stempniak line is also playing well at the moment, though the non-Skinner 67% are better suited for tournaments. If this line can work against Boone Jenner, Brandon Dubinsky, and Josh Anderson – which is very possible assuming Staal works against the top line – the Skinner line has massive upside. Dubinsky and Jenner in particular have been on the ice for a high rate of high-danger shot attempts. With both lines there is an established floor thanks to their strong play and the weak Columbus defense, but the ceiling is low to equal with the floor thanks to Bobrovsky. This makes the Hurricanes great tournament options but a little riskier in cash games, outside the likes of Jeff Skinner and Elias Lindholm, both of whom are locked in.

Blue Jackets Elite Plays:Brandon Saad
Blue Jackets Secondary Plays:Cam Atkinson, Sam Gagner, Scott Hartnell, Seth Jones, David Savard, Josh Anderson

Hurricanes Elite Plays: Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm, Justin Faulk
Hurricanes Secondary Plays:Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho, Lee Stempniak, Jaccob Slavin

New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers

New York Islanders					Philadelphia Flyers
			Thomas Greiss					Steve Mason
			Record					Record
			35-28-12					36-32-8
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.86	2.97	15.20%	81.30%	Team Stats	2.54	2.87	19.30%	79.30%

Islanders 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.5 CF% / 46.3 GF% / 47 xGF%
Flyers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.5 CF% / 47.3 GF% / 47.8 xGF%

With their playoff hopes dashed, the Islanders will play out the string against Metro Division bottom dwellers Philadelphia tonight. These two teams are out of the playoff picture at this point, though Lloyd Christmas would technically say there is a chance for New York. The Flyers aren’t an overly imposing nor friendly matchup for Islander forwards. The top line of John Tavares, Anders Lee, and Josh Bailey are of course in play in all formats, but the GPP appeal of the secondary scorers is limited. The Flyers have mid-to-high event shot attempt numbers, both for and against, but they don’t allow much in the way of quality scoring chances. While the Tavares line can work with the matchup, the ceiling is limited for Josh-Ho Sang and the second line. Philadelphia will probably counter the Tavares line with Sean Couturier up front and Radko Gudas on defense, and both of them are solid enough to warrant a downgrade for the Isles’ top line. Steve Mason has been playing better but he struggles with quality shot attempts, so while the Tavares line has something of a lower ceiling they are still nice tournament options. After all, they’ve been among the best lines in the league at generating offense this year. Additionally, they stick together on the power play so all three can be stacked for maximum exposure, and the Flyers’ penalty kill isn’t overly impressive.

The Flyers remain a middling DFS option once again tonight. The offense lacks a high ceiling most tonight and while the matchup is favorable, Philadelphia’s inability to pile on goals is an issue. The best thing working for the Flyers in this matchup is the questionable goaltending of New York. Look for Thomas Greiss in net for the Isles. Greiss has had a strong year and looks to be working his way out of a slump from the past few weeks, stopping 78 of 84 shots faced in his last three games (93%). Philadelphia’s expected GF/60 at 5v5 (2.31), while better than the realized GF/60 (1.71), is an overall lackluster number that doesn’t move the needle much. Another problem with deciding to roll out Flyers is figuring out which line or lines to focus on. The most consistent performer of late has been Grind Down favorite Sean Couturier, but given his tougher minutes and third line role/time on ice, his ceiling is low. He does have Brayden Schenn on his wing so there is a pairing opportunity here, with Schenn bringing exposure to the bigger names as a member of the top power play unit. Jakub Voracek now joins Claude Giroux (and Matt Read) on the top line with Wayne Simmonds sliding down to play with Valtteri Filppula and Jordan Weal. Weal has been a nice value play of late and his cap relief makes using Simmonds easier. New York has one of the highest xGA/60 at 5v5 so theoretically the Flyers should be able to pop a few in, but their goal scoring woes and scattered lines making stacking tough.

Islanders Elite Plays:John Tavares
Islanders Secondary Plays:Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, Josh Ho-Sang

Flyers Elite Plays:Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere
Flyers Secondary Plays:Sean Couturier, Jordan Weal, Brayden Schenn

Florida Panthers at Montréal Canadiens

Florida Panthers					Montréal Canadiens
			James Reimer					Carey Price
			Record					Record
			33-32-11					43-24-9
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.47	2.77	16.90%	85.70%	Team Stats	2.71	2.43	20.20%	80.40%

Panthers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.4 CF% / 46.9 GF% / 48 xGF%
Canadiens 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.3 CF% / 48.7 GF% / 52.4 xGF%

Things are bleak for the Panthers right now. The team is underperforming, the players and coaching staff are on bad terms, and the backup goalie got trucked last game. For a team with such a poor xGF/60 number (2.38), going in to the Bell Centre on uneven ground does not bode well. Under Claude Julien, the Canadiens have tightened up their game and Carey Price shook off whatever slump he was working through. Simply put, Florida’s offense is just not living up to its potential this season. Even Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau on the top line aren’t having great years, post-injuries. “(player-popup)Vincent Trocheck”:/players/vincent-trocheck-17392’s incredible shot generation rate has slowed and Thomas Vanek hasn’t been scoring since coming over from Detroit. Only Jonathan Marchessault has been consistent of late, and by consistent I mean hot (credit Vanek with picking up assists, at least). Even from a contrarian’s point of view, the matchup is far from ideal for a sneaky game from the Panthers. Carey Price has allowed just 16 goals over his past 10 starts, and that includes three three goals allowed games. Seven out of his past 10 games he’s allowed exactly one goal, so… things aren’t looking great for Florida. The Panthers were only able to put up 27 shots against the Leafs, and though that was the second night of a back-to-back, the Canadiens defense is much tougher to work against.

Though it was against Dallas, the Canadiens are coming off a promising performance that saw the top line finally reactivate. With Florida in a rough spot, Montreal is a solid play tonight that has potential to go overlooked. James Reimer is questionable (and more likely doubtful) as of the time of this writing following a collision in Florida’s last game. Reto Berra is not a quality goalie. The Florida defense is without Aaron Ekblad again and the team’s high-danger shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes at 5v5 is at one of its highest rates of the year over the past 25 games. Max Pacioretty, Alexander Radulov, and Phillip Danault are a strong line to consider tonight, especially with Radulov at a discount. Similarly Danault is quite cheap across the industry, which offsets his lack of upside. Montreal’s third line has some sneaky appeal as well, with Alex Galchenyuk, Arturri Lehkonen, and Andrew Shaw playing well and the trio staying together on the man advantage (albeit on the second unit). Brendan Gallagher provides a solid shot volume from game to game and has a solid HDCF/60, but he makes for a risky one-off at a mid-tier price and on a line that plays a more defensive role. With Florida boasting a strong penalty kill rate, Shea Weber becomes a bit risky at his price range, though Reto Berra in net would degrade the penalty kill prowess. Andrei Markov has been in good form of late and is a solid pivot on the blueline, though his upside is a little more limited due to lower shot volume and no booming cannon to speak of. To bring it all together, it should still be remembered that Montreal has had trouble scoring of late against teams not from Texas, so to a certain degree at least, expectations should be tempered.

Panthers Elite Plays: None
Panthers Secondary Plays:Jonathan Marchessault, Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau

Canadiens Elite Plays:Max Pacioretty, Alexander Radulov
Canadiens Secondary Plays:Phillip Danault, Alex Galchenyuk, Arturri Lehkonen, Brendan Gallagher, Andrei Markov

Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins

Dallas Stars					Boston Bruins
			Kari Lehtonen					Tuukka Rask
			Record					Record
			31-34-11					40-30-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.73	3.08	18.10%	74.00%	Team Stats	2.84	2.64	20.70%	85.10%

Stars 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.1 CF% / 45.3 GF% / 49.6 xGF%
Bruins 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 54.8 CF% / 53.1 GF% / 55.1 xGF%

With the tent coming down for the circus season, the Stars will pull a tough draw in the bear’s den tonight. Tyler Seguin will return to Boston, which you’ve probably heard 1,000 times already, and will look to play spoiler against Boston’s playoff push where each point is crucial. Unfortunately, a combination of an ineffective Dallas offense (especially on the road) and a strong Bruins defense makes the matchup suboptimal. The Bruins are the best possession team in the league and have one of best defenses in limiting quality scoring chances and shots to opposing teams. Of course, “(player-popup)Tuukka Rask”:/players/tuukka-rask-14475’s deflated play of late does give opposing offenses potential. Coming off a nice performance over Nashville, Rask has been downright bad over the past few months. He is severely susceptible to high-danger shot attempts right now. While this should be – and has been – Dallas’s forte, over their past 25 games the Stars have produced 10.84 per 60 minutes at 5v5. That puts them in the top third of the league over the same time. The problem is the production is coming from secondary scorers, not just Seguin and Jamie Benn. For example, Antoine Roussel, Radek Faksa, and Curtis McKenzie have the highest HDCF/60 rates of the forward group. None of the three play with Benn or Seguin, though McKenzie does play next to Jason Spezza on the fourth (!) line. The point is, these are all extremely low floor, very limited ceiling options even in good matchups. Another issue with the bigger Stars as contrarian plays against a struggling Rask is that the prices of Seguin, Benn, etc are still at a premium.

Contrary to Dallas’s position, things are much better for Boston. They’ll host one of the worst defenses at 5v5 in the league, as well as the worst penalty kill. That means all the known quantities are slam-dunk plays: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, David Krejci, and Torey Krug. Frank Vatrano is a nice floor play on a budget as he should work against the questionable depth of Dallas’s roster (scratch that as Vatrano is sick). Despite the fact he hasn’t scored in ages, he’s still shooting at a healthy clip. Kari Lehtonen has been the only thing keeping Dallas from being wiped out each night, and while he’s been strong at 5v5, Lehtonen is not at a point in his career where he diminishes otherwise strong matchups. Dallas is severely vulnerable on the penalty kill most nights, and tonight they’ll face a very high-end Bruin power play. In an ideal world David Krejci would be playing on the top unit to correlate with Pastrnak and gain exposure to Bergeron and Marchand, but Ryan Spooner seems to be set on the top unit. That puts Spooner in as a low cost play with upside, though Spooner not having Vatrano at 5v5 will hurt tonight.

Stars Elite Plays: None
Stars Secondary Plays:Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza, Brett Ritchie

Bruins Elite Plays:Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, David Krejci, Torey Krug
Bruins Secondary Plays:David Backes, Drew Stafford, Ryan Spooner, Zdeno Chara

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning

Detroit Red Wings					Tampa Bay Lightning
			Jimmy Howard					Andrei Vasilevskiy
			Record					Record
			31-33-12					37-29-9
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.38	2.95	14.10%	82.10%	Team Stats	2.76	2.78	22.50%	81.10%

Red Wings 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47 CF% / 42.4 GF% / 47.4 xGF%
Lightning 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 53.2 CF% / 52.1 GF% / 51.6 xGF%

After a bizarre home-and-home-again with the Hurricanes due to a makeup game, the Red Wings will be playing their fourth game in five nights. Typically we like to avoid teams playing four in six, so four in five takes things up another level. To top things off the Red Wing offense isn’t overly special, and for DFS purposes, that are a lot of spare parts that don’t fit well in a tough matchup. Over their past 25 games, the Detroit offense looks much like it has all season – low event, low ceiling, low interest for DFS. Despite a slightly bug in the code against Chicago, Tampa Bay’s defense has been quite strong and poses a stiff test for Detroit’s offense. Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Tatar, and Gustav Nyquist figure to draw the toughest on-ice matchups, which would include Victor Hedman on the Tampa blueline. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a disaster in net of late, so even though this isn’t a back-to-back situation for Tampa, Petr Budaj could draw the start. Either way, the upside just doesn’t seem to be there for a fatigued Wings team that was just knocked out of the playoffs (did you hear they went to the playoffs for 25 straight years!??). Speedster Andreas Athanasiou is day-to-day heading into the game; he and Dylan Larkin have formed a nice bond on the third line. If he can suit up, this duo could generate a few offensive chances working against secondary defenders. It’s worth noting that in the Carolina “series” the ‘Canes put Jordan Staal out against this line, so the division may be on to the youngsters. Anthony Mantha comes at a reasonable price on FD for those looking for a punt. Blueline contributions have been few and far between for the Wings and there are no must-play defenders. This isn’t a great matchup for the Wings in general, so they remain a secondary (or third) tournament option.

Tampa Bay comes in to this game in a tough playoff race. They’ll have a great opportunity to earn two points against a Detroit team that is likely both physically and mentally wiped. It sounds like Steven Stamkos isn’t quite ready to return, which is a bummer, but there are still quite a few pieces to like among the Lightning forwards. Tyler Johnson could be back for this game which would affect the current top line. Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Ondrej Palat are playing very well right now and there is nothing about this matchup that should shut them down. Jonathan Drouin is also playing well at the moment; he makes for a fine one-off as his line has something of a low floor (with Vladislav Namestnikov and Alex Killorn). Detroit has the 10th highest xGA/60 at 5v5 in the league, and when you factor in the likely fatigue, this is a great draw for the Lightning. The early Vegas line is quite heavy on Tampa Bay, unsurprisingly, so there may not be much in the way of favorable ownership beyond Drouin.

Red Wings Elite Plays: None
Red Wings Secondary Plays:Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha

Lightning Elite Plays:Nikita Kucherov, Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman
Lightning Secondary Plays:Brayden Point, Alex Killorn, Jake Dotchin

Jump to Page 1 2