NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, December 14th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators
| San Jose Sharks | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Aaron Dell |  | Mike Condon | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 17-11-1 | 16-11-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.43 | 2.18 | 18.00% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 2.31 | 2.69 | 16.30% | 80.20% |
When we talk about the San Jose Sharks we always talk about the five players that play on the top power play unit and why not? They lead the team with a combined 21 points over the last five games and they are the only players on the team that have found the scoresheet more than ten times this season. Normally a one-line team like the Sharks is not leading their division but yet they do as they are tied with Edmonton and Anaheim with 35 points in the Pacific Division. Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau lead the team from the top line while second line center Logan Couture could be used as a one-off on a nightly basis. Brent Burns is the play on defense as his numbers mirror that of a forward but the catch with selecting him is you will have to pay higher for him than most defenseman on any given night. Joonas Donskoi and Joel Ward would be a great tandem pair with Couture had their production been better but until the Sharks find a few players that can skate with the talented center they can only be used as a deeper GPP play. Pavelski and Burns are the plays if you want to pay up as each has tallied five of their 26 points over the last five games. Thornton looks like he is back on track as he has kept up with them by adding five of his 18 points over the last five games. The only concerning issue is that the Sharks played last night and if they were facing the Ottawa team that we saw in November I’d be a little worried. The good news is that the Senators are looking like they are falling apart as they have given up 19 goals in the last four games.
As much as Burns is one of the more elite defenseman in the league where offense is concerned Erik Karlsson is right there with him. It’s not often that you get to see two teams square off against each other where they have defensemen leading their respective teams in points. Karlsson has racked up three goals and five assists over the last six games while quarterbacking the team’s top power play unit that has scored five goals in their last 17 attempts. Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman join him on the suddenly lethal unit as they are joined on the top line by Derick Brassard when the team plays at even strength. Four of Stone’s last five points have come via the power play while Hoffman has snagged four of his 20 points on the season over the last five games. Kyle Turris makes for a good one-off play here as he centers the second line with Ryan Dzingel and Bobby Ryan while getting tapped for the extra minutes with the man advantage. If you are looking to pair Turris with a line mate Dzingel is probably the play as the youngster is outperforming Ryan in the categories that count towards fantasy points. Dion Phaneuf has been getting more ice time and has responded with three points and 15 shots over the last six games. With only four games on the slate we have to look at every angle to get the advantage tonight.
Elite Plays
SJ: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski
OTT: Erik Karlsson
Secondary Plays
SJ: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau
OTT: Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris, Ryan Dzingel, Derick Brassard
Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins
| Boston Bruins | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Matt Murray | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 16-12-2 | 19-7-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.30 | 2.33 | 13.80% | 87.90% | Team Stats | 3.52 | 2.86 | 20.20% | 76.70% |
In an effort to create a more balanced attack head coach Claude Julien has flip-flopped David Pastrnak and David Backes. What this means is that Backes will now skate on a line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand while the team in goals will line up on the right wing next to David Krejci and Tim Schaller. I kind of like the move as what this effectively does is force the Penguins to make the choice of which line they want to shut down. The Bergeron line debatably has stronger players while the second line is strengthened by the addition of Pastrnak. It also makes it easier to form the top power play unit as the only two that are left off the top line is Marchand and Schaller. Pastrnak has tallied five goals and two assists over the past two weeks which encompasses seven games. Yes, the league has done a great job of running teams into the ground with this season’s schedule as many teams have seen a lot of work in a small amount of time. The team has only scored 15 goals over the last seven games so choosing either line may be beneficial tonight in tournament play if you can pick the right one. My money says stick with Pastrnak. Torey Krug has the target on his back from the blue line as he has 13 points while firing 89 shots on goal so far this season. The Penguins have been a tough bunch of late and it looks like the Bruins have their work cut out for them tonight.
If you have taken a peek at the Metropolitan Division standings lately you’d realize that although the Penguins are playing good hockey, so are a lot of other teams. Pittsburgh leads the Division with the New York Rangers with 41 points while three other teams are within a one game striking distance. The top power play unit of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel has each found the scoresheet a whopping ten times over the past six games while seven of those 30 points have come after Pittsburgh had drawn a penalty. Crosby centers Conor Sheary and Patric Hornqvist and should have a lot of ownership tonight on home ice. Malkin and Kessel find Carl Hagelin on their left wing when they skate at even strength and should be considered for your cash game stacks tonight. Kris Letang is usually the defensemen we target when talking about Pittsburgh but now some other characters have entered the fray. Trevor Daley has apparently moved next to Letang on the team’s top power play unit while Justin Schultz has come out of nowhere to notch eight of his 14 points over the last six games. Pittsburgh should be heavily owned tonight so maybe a fade is in order here to take down a GPP.
Elite Plays
BOS: David Pastrnak
PIT: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin
Secondary Plays
BOS: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug, David Krejci, David Backes
PIT: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang, Patric Hornqvist, Trevor Daley
Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Calgary Flames | ||||||||
 | Ben Bishop |  | Chad Johnson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 14-13-2 | 16-13-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.72 | 2.76 | 22.30% | 80.60% | Team Stats | 2.55 | 2.74 | 15.50% | 78.80% |
The Tampa Bay Lightning have certainly had their share of problems since the injury to Steven Stamkos but now it may be getting even worse. Based on reports filed by beat writer Joe Smith, Tampa may now be without Nikita Kucherov for tonight’s game. Kucherov left yesterday’s practice with an undisclosed injury and did not return. The Lightning have even gone as far as to call up Cory Conacher from their farm team in Syracuse. This does not mean that Kucherov won’t play as both were at today’s optional skate this morning but the fact that Kucherov was skating alone very gingerly and was the first one off the ice is not a good sign. In the event that Kucherov doesn’t play the best guess here would be that Vladislav Namestnikov would move up to the top line to play with Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson. This would make more sense than moving Jonathan Drouin up there which would leave them just one scoring line to cover on the road. Drouin currently skates on the team’s second line and should make for a great one-off play here as he has netted three goals and three assists in his last four games. This is not bad when you consider the fact that the Lightning had scored just nine goals in the last five games. Valtteri Filppula and Brian Boyle are Drouin’s line mates at even strength and should be considered as a GPP option tonight. Victor Hedman is the option on defense as is currently third on the team in scoring while quarterbacking the team’s top power play unit. Tampa hasn’t scored much with Kucherov so imagine what will happen if he is not in the lineup tonight. It looks like GPP City here.
Since the return of Johnny Gaudreau the Flames have not only been winning but they have been winning bigger. Gaudreau has had a hand in eight of the 18 goals the Flames have scored over the last four games which is a big part of the reason that they are 8-1-1 in their last ten games and now sit just one point away from the Pacific Division lead. Sam Bennett and Alex Chiasson join Gaudreau on the team’s top line and should be considered for play in almost any format tonight. What the Flames have successfully done for the time being is split up their best six forwards and put them on three different lines. For Instance, Sean Monahan and Troy Brouwer join Gaudreau on the top power play unit but get Michael Ferland while Mikael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk find Michael Frolik lining up to the right of them when the team is at even strength.Obviously Gaudreau is the play as he has racked up 19 points in the 21 games he has played but I don’t think that taking any of the other three lines will hurt your chances in tournament play. Remember when I said the Sharks had just five players with ten points or more? Well, the Flames have 13 players that have found the scoresheet ten times or more so far this season. It is for this reason that almost any line they have is good for tournament play as they all can score, if just a little bit. Defenseman Dougie Hamilton has been red-hot lately as he has garnered five of his 17 points over the last five games while Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie continue to get the top line power play duties. This will be an interesting game as the Lightning look like a team that has seen better days, which they have.
Elite Plays
TB: Nikita Kucherov
CGY: Johnny Gaudreau
Secondary Plays
TB: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Drouin, Valtteri Filppula, Victor Hedman
CGY: Dougie Hamilton, Sam Bennett, Sean Monahan, Troy Brouwer, Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk
Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche
| Philadelphia Flyers | Colorado Avalanche | ||||||||
 | Steve Mason |  | Calvin Pickard | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 18-10-3 | 11-15-1 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.16 | 2.97 | 24.10% | 81.70% | Team Stats | 2.22 | 3.15 | 17.60% | 79.20% |
The Flyers will go for their tenth win in a row here at the Pepsi Center in Denver Colorado this evening. Philadelphia looks like the Sharks a little in terms of scoring as all four players on the top power play unit have registered 20 points or more so far this season. Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek lead the team from the first line as they have a combined total of 61 points in 31 games while Michael Raffl finds himself in the enviable position of lining up to their left in five-on-five situations. It’s amazing what happens when you move a player back into his normal position. Such is the case with Brayden Schenn as the injury to Sean Couturier has opened the door for him to center the second line with Wayne Simmonds and Travis Konecny. While Raffl and Konecny do not get the extra time on the power play they can provide salary relief if you are looking at Philadelphia for a full line stack on tonight’s short slate. With all of the scoring the Flyers have been doing lately it’s tough to pick a defenseman here as Mark Streit, Andrew MacDonald and Ivan Provorov all have found the scoresheet three times in the last five games. Shayne Gostisbehere is normally the play however as he mans the point when the Flyers draw a penalty. He has come on of late as he has registered four of his 16 points over the last four games. With Pittsburgh, San Jose and Philadelphia all in play on a short slate, it’s obvious who the chalk will be tonight.
You have to give the Avalanche some credit coming up with a win in Toronto the night after they got boat raced by the Montreal Canadiens by a score of 10-1. They still aren’t that great of a team however as the 60 goals they have scored so far this season is the worst in the league. To be honest I think the 3-1 win in Toronto was more because of the embarrassment goaltender Semyon Varlamov must have felt by giving up six goals in 16 shots than anything else, but that’s just me. Now, I am not one to look at NHL lines on a monthly basis, much less a daily basis but today I had to take a peek. Philadelphia with nine straight wins, Colorado least goals scored with a 4-8-1 home record, what could go wrong right? The Flyers are only a -115 favorite in tonight’s game, which in my opinion is just begging you to take them. Ok, so assuming that Colorado has turned a corner of sorts we have to look at who has been producing. Nathan MacKinnon is the first to come to mind as he has grabbed five points over the last four games to give him the team lead with 20 points. He will center Blake Comeau and Gabriel Landeskog on the team’s top line. This is probably the best you are going to get here as maybe MacKinnon can spark the oft-injured Landeskog into finding the scoresheet a little more than he has so far this season. Mat Duchene makes for a decent one-off play here as he has tallied 18 points in the 23 games he has appeared in while skating on the team’s top power play unit. Duchene will center Mikko Rantanen and Mikhail Grigorenko at even strength from the second line. Tyson Barrie is the play on the point as he is third on the team with 13 points. That is not a lot but maybe tonight is the night he kicks it into gear and wins someone a GPP. If the Avalanche can play as tough as they did in Toronto the Flyers streak could fall here tonight.
Elite Plays
PHL: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek
COL: None
Secondary Plays
PHL: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, Shayne Gostisbehere, Michael Raffl
COL: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene, Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Barrie