NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, March 9th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2016-03-10 14:44:28

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs – 07:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
New York Islanders					Toronto Maple Leafs
			Jaroslav Halak					Garret Sparks
			Record					Record
			36-20-7					21-33-11
Team Stats	2.86	2.46	18.90%	86.40%	Team Stats	2.31	2.89	14.70%	80.10%

The Islanders were seemingly outplayed throughout the majority of the night last night, but still managed to steal two points from the Pittsburgh Penguins for their fourth straight victory. They’ve now climbed within three points of the New York Rangers (with three games in hand) for second place in the Metropolitan Division and will look to keep things going in a terrific matchup against the struggling Toronto Maple Leafs. John Tavares finds himself tied with Kyle Okposo for the team lead in points with 52 and has turned things on offensively, posting eight goals and ten assists in 17 games since the All-Star break. He’s scored a goal and added an assist in the two prior meetings with Toronto this season and is the focal point of both New York’s top forward line as well as their #1 power-play unit. While he’s a terrific option in all formats, so are Okposo and Frans Nielsen who team up on the second line and also join Tavares on the top power-play unit. Okposo and Nielsen have combined for three goals and nine assists in four games this month and are very reasonably priced across the industry. On defense, Nick Leddy is emerging as a quality option on a nightly basis. The 24 year-old has picked up a pair of points in each of the last two games and now owns a goal and 15 assists in 17 games since the All-Star break.

The Maple Leafs squandered a 2-0 early lead against Buffalo to ultimately drop their sixth straight game. This team clearly has a vision for a bright future, but they’re clearly not ready (or healthy enough) to be competitive right now. They’ve posted a 5-17-4 record over their last 21 games and have tough matchup on tap tonight against a Islanders team currently fighting for playoff positioning. Leo Komarov and Nazem Kadri lead the team in scoring and join forces on the top forward line. Komarov scored his 19th goal of the season against Buffalo on Monday while Kadri has dished out a pair of assists in the two prior meetings against the Islanders this season. After missing several games, the Leafs will be pleased to welcome P.A. Parenteau back to the lineup tonight. The former 20-goal scorer has scored a goal and added an assist against the Islanders this year and still has some GPP upside. Alternatively, Nikita Soshnikov has hit the ground running at the NHL level with two goals and an assist in his last four games and is slated to center the #1 power-play unit. Before you get too excited, let’s be clear about this; all of these guys are risky cash game options and the Islander’s excellent penalty kill squashes some of their GPP value as well.

New York Islanders

CF%: 50.3, CP60: 111.6, 5×5 Differential: 10
Elite Options: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo, Nick Leddy
Secondary Options: Ryan Strome, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Johnny Boychuk

Toronto Maple Leafs

CF%: 51.7, CP60: 114, 5×5 Differential: -25
Elite Options: None
Secondary Options: Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov, Nikita Soshnikov, Morgan Rielly

Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues – 08:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Chicago Blackhawks					St. Louis Blues
			Corey Crawford					Jake Allen
			Record					Record
			41-21-5					38-20-9
Team Stats	2.84	2.39	24.10%	79.40%	Team Stats	2.48	2.39	21.70%	86.60%

In the Co-Main Event of the evening, the Chicago Blackhawks will invade the Scottrade Center in St. Louis looking to send a message to their division rivals. There is no love lost between these two teams and this should be an electric atmosphere for a regular season game. Chicago has sputtered a bit down the stretch by their standards (5-5-1 record in their last 11), but with back-to-back huge road games against St. Louis tonight and Dallas on Friday, Joel Quenneville should have his hockey club ready to go. The Blackhawks are slated to welcome Marian Hossa back to the lineup and he’ll slot in next to Jonathan Toews and Andrew Ladd on the top line that suddenly looks very dangerous. This leaves the NHL’s leading scorer Patrick Kane to continue skating alongside Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov on the “second” line. Kane has torched St. Louis for two goals and two assists in their three prior meetings and should be well worth the investment despite the tough matchup. Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook have each already reached the 40-point plateau this season and are locked into very heavy workloads. Both blue-liners share the duties on the point of the Hawks’ top power-play unit and are fine options in all formats. Just temper your expectations slightly as the Blues are not only solid in their defensive end, but also own the NHL’s best penalty kill.

The Blues responded from a three-game losing streak with three straight victories and will hit the ice for tonight’s pivotal clash with the Blackhawks fresh off of a terrific performance in Minnesota on Sunday. Vladimir Tarasenko has cooled off a bit lately, but he still remains the Blues most dangerous offensive weapon (specially with Alex Steen still sidelined). He’ll be joined by Jaden Schwartz and Jori Lehtera on the top forward line but unfortunately for those three, they’ll also be shadowed all over the ice by the Toews/Hossa/Ladd line all evening. While that’s a daunting matchup, it hasn’t really phased Tarasenko in their prior meetings as he’s three goals and an assists in the three games already played this season against Chicago. Alternatively, rookie Robby Fabbri actually leads this team in scoring since the All-Star break with five goals and six assists in 15 games and has helped fill the secondary scoring void alongside Paul Stastny and Troy Brouwer on the second line. Chicago’s main weakness this season has been its penalty kill, and it’s been particualrly poor since in the second half (68.9%). With this in mind, the trio of Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko all look like fine GPP options.

Chicago Blackhawks

CF%: 50.7, CP60: 109.9, 5×5 Differential: 0
Elite Options: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Jonathan Toews
Secondary Options: Marian Hossa, Andrew Ladd, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook

St. Louis Blues

CF%: 51.4, CP60: 106.3, 5×5 Differential: 5
Elite Options: Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Shattenkirk
Secondary Options: Jaden Schwartz, Robby Fabbri, David Backes, Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko

Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames – 09:30 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Nashville Predators					Calgary Flames
			Pekka Rinne					Joni Ortio
			Record					Record
			33-21-12					27-34-5
Team Stats	2.70	2.53	20.10%	78.80%	Team Stats	2.67	3.11	15.90%	73.90%

Don’t look now, but the Predators have slowly climbed their way right back into the thick of the race atop of the Central Division. Nashville picked up a 4-2 win in Winnipeg last night and have now picked up at least one point in 12 straight games (9-0-3 record). They’ll head to Calgary tonight to battle the Flames and, while each of the first two battles between these two teams ended just 2-1, I’m expecting much more offense from them this time around. Calgary has allowed an ugly 3.11 goals against per game this season and their 73.9% penalty kill is easily the worst in the league. With that in mind, both of Nashville’s top two forward lines look very appealing. Filip Forsberg picked up yet another assist last night and has been on an absolute heater lately; posting eight goals and five assists in his last seven games. His linemate Craig Smith has been on a blistering pace as well, scoring five goals and adding five assists in his last five games. Alternatively, the dynamic duo of James Neal and Ryan Johansen (with Calle Jarnkrok) still looms as weapons on the top line and #2 power-play unit. They’ve been a bit quiet lately, but still have GPP winning upside in this matchup. Shea Weber and Roman Josi are both known commodities on the blue-line and terrific options if you can afford them. If you’re looking for some salary relief, Mattias Ekholm can be found at a fraction of the price and will eclipse the 30 point barrier for the first time of his young career with his next point.

Calgary badly outplayed the San Jose Sharks for the bulk of Monday night’s game, but just couldn’t seem to solve Martin Jones and tacked yet another loss onto their ugly 27-34-5 record. They’ve posted just a 2-9-2 record over their last 13 games and look much less threatening with Jiri Hudler and Kris Russell out of the picture. They’ll welcome a streaking Predators team to the Saddledome tonight and do catch a break as Nashville was in action last night in Winnipeg. Breaking down the Flames up-front pretty much starts and ends at the tandem of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. Gaudreau may be in the midst of a four-game pointless streak, but he still easily leads the team with 63 points in 65 games and has been an absolute beast on home-ice all season; posting 21 goals, 24 assists and a +22 in just 32 home games. Monahan has also played much better at home as he’s tallied nine goals and 21 assists (and a +12) in those 32 games. Those two are slated to be joined on the top line by Micheal Ferland which single-handedly makes him a viable value play this evening. On the blue-line, the offensively minded Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton should both be anxious to attack Nashville’s very mediocre 24th ranked penalty kill. Giordano has picked up points in four of his last five games and has bounced back from a slow start to the season to post 11 goals and 22 assists in his last 41 games.

Nashville Predators

CF%: 52.5, CP60: 106, 5×5 Differential: 11
Elite Options: Filip Forsberg, Craig Smith, James Neal, Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi, Shea Weber
Secondary Options: Calle Jarnkrok, Mike Ribiero, Mattias Ekholm

Calgary Flames

CF%: 47.9, CP60: 110.8, 5×5 Differential: -13
Elite Options: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano
Secondary Options: Sean Monahan, Micheal Ferland, Sam Bennett, T.J. Brodie, Dougie Hamilton

Arizona Coyotes at Vancouver Canucks – 10:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Arizona Coyotes					Vancouver Canucks
			Louis Domingue					Jacob Markstrom
			Record					Record
			28-32-6					25-28-12
Team Stats	2.64	3.12	18.20%	77.50%	Team Stats	2.35	2.85	18.20%	81.40%

Arizona was one of the biggest surprises of the first half of the season, but things have gone down hill in a hurry. After a 22-16-4 record to begin the season, they have gone just 6-16-2 in 24 games since. Oliver Ekman-Larsson leads the team with 49 points in 66 games and is easily the most trustworthy cash game option however he was banged up in Monday’s game and his status for tonight’s game is uncertain at this time. Up-front, Dave Tippett has mudied the waters a bit by spreading out what little offensive firepower he does have across three separate lines. Guys like Martin Hanzal, Max Domi, Antoine Vermette, Tobias Reider and Alex Tanguay all have some GPP upside, but are too risky for my liking in cash games.

Behind the other bench, it’s also been a struggle down the stretch for Willie Desjardins. The Canucks have posted just a 5-11-1 record in their last 17 games and will now be without Henrik Sedin as he was injured with an upper-body injury over the weekend. Vancouver has scored just 2.35 goals per game, but they do have a very nice home matchup against an Arizona team that has allowed a league worst 3.12 goals against per game this season. Daniel Sedin is easily the top fantasy option as he’s posted 25 goals, 31 assists and a +14 in 65 games. He’s tallied two goals in three games against Arizona this season and will now find himself playing alongside Linden Vey and Emerson Etem on the top forward line. Sven Baertschi and Radim Vrbata join Vey and Sedin on the top power-play unit where they’ll look to take advantage of the Coyotes’ 77.5% penalty kill. It’s been a disasterous season for Vrbata, but if you’re a believer in “revenge games”, then he’s a fine GPP target against his former team. Rookie blue-liner Ben Hutton looks to have finally settled into his new role as the point-man on the top power-play and has now racked up five assists in his last seven games. He’s still dirt cheap if you’re looking for some value on defense.

Arizona Coyotes

CF%: 47.2, CP60: 109.1, 5×5 Differential: -12
Elite Options: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (if healthy)
Secondary Options: Martin Hanzal, Max Domi, Antoine Vermette

Vancouver Canucks

CF%: 47.3, CP60: 103.5, 5×5 Differential: -16
Elite Options: Daniel Sedin
Secondary Options: Linden Vey, Radim Vrbata, Ben Hutton

Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche – 10:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Anaheim Ducks					Colorado Avalanche
			John Gibson					Semyon Varlamov
			Record					Record
			37-19-9					34-30-4
Team Stats	2.49	2.26	23.40%	86.40%	Team Stats	2.65	2.87	19.50%	81.40%

The Ducks 11-game winning streak came to an end on Monday night with an overtime loss to the Washington Capitals, but with a 20-2-2 record over their last 24 games, they’re clearly one of the front runners in the Western Conference. They’ll head to the Mile High City looking to avenge a shutout loss against the Avalanche in their only prior meeting this season. With a massive puck possession by Corsi standards and Colorado allowing an ugly 32.0 shots against per game, you’ll likely want some exposure here. Ryan Getzlaf scored his 10th goal of the season on Monday and has now exploded for seven goals and 14 assists (and a +13) in just 17 games since the All-Star break. The newly acquired David Perron joins him on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit and has racked up eight goals, 11 assists and a +14 in 22 games with the Ducks. Corey Perry joins those two on the top power-play unit and has chipped in five goals and three assists in his last five games. If you’re searching for some value, Rickard Rakell plays alongside Perry on the second line and has seven goals and six assists in 18 games since the break. Anaheim’s power-play has clicked at a 31.4% clip since the All-Star break thanks largely to the solid play from point-men Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen. Fowler saw his five-game point streak come to an end against Washington, but the former first-round pick has racked up a goal and ten assists in his last 12 games.

With Colorado sitting tied with the Minnesota Wild for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, they simply need to find a way to pick up two points against Anaheim tonight. However, with Anaheim playing extremely well lately and allowing a league low 2.11 goals against per game since the All-Star break, it certainly won’t be easy. While the matchup on it’s own is scary, Patrick Roy hasn’t done us any favors as he’s really spread his scoring out across three forward line and Anaheim’s second ranked penalty kill isn’t something you necessarily want to target, either. Matt Duchene leads the team with 52 points and has tallied two goals and two assists in his last four games. He’ll skate alongside Mikhail Grigorenko and Jarome Iginla on one line while Nathan MacKinnon trails just behind with 49 points and is slated to center Mikel Boedker and Blake Comeau on another. On defense, Tyson Barrie has tallied 45 points in 64 games and is the most dangerous offensive option. He’s posted three goals and nine assists in his last 12 games but his fantasy outlook is suppressed a bit by Anaheim’s strong penalty kill.

Anaheim Ducks

CF%: 52.8, CP60: 108.1, 5×5 Differential: -8
Elite Options: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, David Perron
Secondary Options: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Kesler, Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen

Colorado Avalanche

CF%: 44, CP60: 110.9, 5×5 Differential: -14
Elite Options: None
Secondary Options: Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, Jarome Iginla, Tyson Barrie