MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 18th

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2017-08-19 01:43:08

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Toronto at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Toronto								Chicago Cubs
			J.A. Happ							Jake Arrieta
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-180
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.275	0.317	32.0%	5.7%	17.8%	48.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	0.328	30.3%	11.6%	24.2%	46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.311	30.1%	7.9%	21.8%	42.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.254	0.268	23.2%	6.2%	22.9%	52.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.A. Happ
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	4.28	3.18	20.5%	7.5%	42.5%	31.6%	17.8%
	2017	17	4.15	3.63	22.2%	7.4%	46.1%	28.5%	20.7%
	L30	6	4.69	3.79	21.0%	10.8%	48.1%	21.5%	25.2%

Happ is a solid pitcher, but with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field there is basically no reason to use him today. He has enough ground ball and soft contact ability to lefties to deal with these conditions, but with just an average batted ball profile to righties, it’s too dangerous for home runs today.

Quick Breakdown: No reason to take on this risk with better pitchers coming up tonight.

Jake Arrieta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,900	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	31	3.94	3.10	23.9%	9.6%	52.6%	25.2%	22.9%
	2017	24	4.09	3.73	23.0%	7.7%	46.3%	27.9%	20.6%
	L30	6	4.14	2.09	21.7%	6.6%	48.1%	24.3%	17.8%

Arrieta has been pitching very well with low walks and getting a lot of soft contact, but strikeouts are not his game. He could still find his way into a quality start with this pitching style and likely only one dangerous left-handed bat in the Toronto lineup, but he’s not at much of a discount. His lack of upside and the tough pitching conditions make him a tough play today.

Quick Breakdown: He gets enough of a break with Toronto losing a DH to take a shot, but don’t go heavy on him in these conditions.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Left-handed batters are preferred against Arrieta, which doesn’t set up great for the Blue Jays today, losing their DH in an NL Park. They will likely sit Kendrys Morales, or perhaps Justin Smoak, with the one that plays being the top option here. Normally, it would easy to skip over righties, but with this wind blowing out in Wrigley, all the power hitters are in play for tournamaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Steve Pearce

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Similar to Toronto, this is a spot that wouldn’t be highly attackable in a neutral ballpark, but when the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, it becomes a hitters park. Happ does a good job keeping the ball on the ground against left-handed batters, though Anthony Rizzo is still in play. Against righties, Happ has a solid 23% strikeout rate, but drops to neutral ground balls and hard hits. The Cubs righties that can get the ball in the air today become playable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Angels at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

LA Angels								Baltimore
			Andrew Heaney							Jeremy Hellickson
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-131							10.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.409	20.0%	0.0%	16.7%	40.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	0.343	29.2%	8.7%	16.6%	31.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.356	0.334	30.8%	0.0%	31.6%	46.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.305	0.310	27.2%	3.7%	18.8%	43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Heaney
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	1	2.72	6.00	28.0%	0.0%	44.4%	27.8%	5.6%

Heaney is a high end prospect that was drafted in the 1st round in 2012, but his progress was derailed by Tommy John Surgery in 2016. He made three rehab starts in the rookie league, followed by three starts at Triple-A. He pitched fine, and has a lot of long term upside, but it’s high risk at best after the long layoff, and only eight career starts in the majors prior to the injury. It would be a tough matchup in Baltimore even at full strength, and the Angels have no reason to push him, as he is a big part of their future.

Quick Breakdown: I’m rooting for him, and is a great long term option, but there’s no reason to jump on board in this first start.

Jeremy Hellickson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	4.15	3.71	20.0%	5.8%	40.7%	25.9%	20.8%
	2017	23	5.14	4.70	14.8%	6.2%	34.7%	31.1%	18.6%
	L30	5	4.01	5.46	23.7%	5.9%	31.3%	35.4%	19.5%

In theory, the Angels are the right type of matchup for Hellickson to have a decent start. And, his most dominant start of the season came against this team ten days ago in Anaheim, but it’s a huge stretch to look for another game with even moderate strikeouts from a pitcher like Hellickson. That nine strikeout game against the Angels was only his second game of the entire season where hit the 7+ K barrier. He has five or fewer strikeouts in 19 of his 23 starts and just a 14.8% K rate this year. He is a fly ball pitcher who lives at the mercy of HR/FB%, so sure the low power Angels could help him back his way into a quality start, but there is always going to be risk for him in Camden Yards, and he doesn’t have the upside to make up for that risk.

Quick Breakdown: You can hope for a quality start and maybe you’ll get it, but this is a low upside, high risk pitcher best avoided.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Facing Hellickson in Baltimore is an ideal situation for home run hunting, unfortunately there isn’t a lot of power to be found for the Angels outside of the obvious Mike Trout. You can sprinkle some of these other bats into tournament lineups, but the Angels just aren’t a great DFS lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, CJ Cron, Albert Pujols, Luis Valbuena

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

We may not see a long outing from Heaney, but while he’s in there, right-handed power bats would be the place to look. In the limited major league sample size we have from Heaney, he’s allowed 42% fly balls, 35% hard hits and a 1.37 HR/9 with a 15.9% strikeout rate to righties. This is a good spot to hunt for home runs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Tim Beckham

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Welington Castillo, Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis								Pittsburgh
			Carlos Martinez							Trevor Williams
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-108							8.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	0.324	35.0%	11.4%	20.3%	53.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	0.281	24.6%	6.9%	15.0%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.243	0.242	26.6%	5.7%	26.9%	55.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.303	0.333	34.3%	7.9%	19.7%	48.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$10,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	31	3.97	3.04	21.5%	8.7%	56.4%	29.6%	19.1%
	2017	24	3.82	3.56	25.9%	8.7%	51.4%	33.0%	18.7%
	L30	6	3.61	4.03	23.3%	6.3%	57.7%	30.4%	20.5%

Martinez is a frustrating pitcher. He has all the talent in the world, and he shows it just often enough to stay on the radar as a potential ace, but his inconsistency is maddening and rarely seems to end up justifying his salary. His 25.9% strikeout rate is very good. His 51.4% ground ball rate is very good. But by themselves, that is not enough to put him in the upper tier of starters. When his walks start to come down, which they have since the All-Star Break at 6.3%, his strikeouts come down with them, to 23.3% over that six start span. And even as he’s racking up ground balls, he still allows a few too many home runs, with 12 in his last 10 starts. In Pittsburgh, I would expect we see a lower strikeout game, hopefully with limited power as well. One potential reason for optimism is that most of the Pirates top batters are righties, and Martinez is much more dominant to same-handed batters. The Pirates are a low strikeout, low power team, so as long as Martinez can limit the walks and keep the ball on the ground, I would expect a pretty good start here, but while the upside always exists, tonight isn’t the night I’m going out of my way to look for it.

Quick Breakdown: His talent keeps him playable every time he’s on the mound, but the matchup doesn’t look great for tournament upside.

Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	1	4.28	7.82	18.0%	8.2%	45.5%	31.1%	17.8%
	2017	18	4.56	4.19	17.5%	7.4%	49.6%	29.4%	24.9%
	L30	6	4.51	2.95	18.8%	9.7%	58.7%	25.9%	24.1%

After a rough start to his major league career, the Pirates rookie has looked very good recently. He was a high ground ball in the minors, and he has begun to show that skill for Pittsburgh with a 58.7% GB rate over his last six starts. In 11 starts since mid-June, he has allowed more than three runs only once, and that was in Coors Field. The ground balls and the favorable home ballpark work in his favor, but he doesn’t appear to have enough strikeout ability to be much of a DFS asset. He has just a 17.5% K rate for the season with 8.1% swinging strikes and has yet to top seven strikeouts in a game and has been between 3-5 K’s in 13 of his 18 starts. The Cardinals are not an easy enough matchup to be able to find a reason to use Williams tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Good enough real life pitcher to limit damage, but not the kind of guy worth chasing after.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

With Trevor Williams continuing to get his ground ball rate while keeping hard hits in check, he’s not a great guy to pick on, especially in this ballpark. He hasn’t allowed a lot of home runs, but what he has allowed has leaned towards reverse splits, so you could take a shot on a power hitter here, but it is very far down the list tonight. His strikeouts are low enough to lefties that Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler should get the ball in play, but he’s doing a great job getting soft contact to lefties to offest that.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Paul DeJong, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Carlos Martinez is a pitcher with wide splits, and he is basically untouchable against right-handed batters. Against lefties, he is still solid with 22% strikeouts and 51% ground balls, but his control is sketchy and he allows hard hits. With most of Pittsburgh’s best hitters on the right side of the plate, there is very little reason at all to look at any of these Pirates tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

LA Dodgers								Detroit
			Rich Hill							Jordan Zimmermann
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-190							10.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	0.305	25.2%	8.3%	20.0%	51.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.354	0.345	36.0%	5.9%	15.7%	36.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.254	0.265	30.6%	8.7%	31.8%	39.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.355	0.336	30.8%	6.6%	14.2%	38.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rich Hill
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$11,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	20	3.29	2.12	29.4%	7.5%	45.3%	28.3%	22.3%
	2017	17	3.83	3.44	28.8%	10.0%	39.2%	30.5%	22.7%
	L30	5	3.11	2.89	32.2%	7.0%	40.9%	37.7%	13.0%

Hill is an ace from a strikeout rate perspective. However, his limited innings and occasional control problems keep him a clear tier below guys like Kluber and Scherzer. He sits around a 29% strikeout rate, and can usually be counted on to pick up somewhere in the 8-10 range in strikeouts, which gives him plenty of upside per inning. But, he has hit seven innings in just three of 17 starts, and the safe play is to just count on six innings from him. It looks like a tough matchup going into Detroit against a right-handed heavy team, but Hill is actually a more dominant pitcher against righties with a 31% strikeout rate. What is a strength for Hill is also unfortunately a strength for Detroit as they are a bottom five team in strikeouts against lefties and in the top five in ISO and wOBA. Anyone with as much strikeout ability as Hill belongs in the discussion, but it’s not the best night to use him.

Quick Breakdown: Hill is a talented enough pitcher that he is always in play, but the mix of the limited innings and a strong Tigers team pushes him down the list a bit tonight.

Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	18	4.81	4.87	14.7%	5.8%	43.1%	27.3%	18.5%
	2017	23	5.15	5.62	15.1%	6.7%	33.3%	38.3%	13.9%
	L30	6	5.34	4.93	12.4%	5.2%	33.3%	37.4%	13.8%

Zimmermann is one of several gas cans tonight that are very easy to avoid. He has just a 15.1% strikeout rate with a 5.16 SIERA and is facing a Dodgers team that is near the top of the league in all offensive categories against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann is not playable in any format for any reason.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

This is one of the top spots on the board tonight, both for cash games and tournaments. Zimmermann has no strikeout ability to either right or left-handed batters, and allows high fly balls, line drives and hard hits to both sides of the plate. The Dodgers get the added bonus of travelling to an AL park and adding a DH to their lineup. There is even a weak Tigers bullpen behind the weak starting pitcher if you need another reason to love the. They rank in the top five in nearly every offensive category and there is nothing not to love about this matchup. Load em up early and often!

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Logan Forsythe

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

This is a tricky spot, as the Tigers have several elite hitters against left-handed pitching, but Rich Hill isn’t the type of pitcher to be excited about playing against. The Dodgers also have a solid bullpen behind him, so the safest play is to stay away here. The top of the lineup bats are good enough to take a shot on here or there in a GPP, but with Hill carrying a 31% strikeout rate against right-handed batters, tread carefully.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Miami								NY Mets
			Justin Nicolino							Chris Flexen
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-114							9.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.331	25.2%	1.6%	11.2%	55.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.438	0.429	38.1%	22.9%	14.3%	20.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.355	0.373	34.8%	8.7%	11.3%	43.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.442	0.305	29.4%	8.5%	17.0%	55.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Nicolino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	13	5.11	4.99	10.7%	5.8%	46.6%	32.9%	15.4%
	2017	6	5.35	4.56	13.0%	9.8%	48.4%	29.8%	9.6%
	L30	1	6.91	1.69	8.0%	16.0%	47.4%	42.1%	5.3%

This a crazy stat, and not crazy in a good way. Nicolino has a strikeout rate this season that is 3% HIGHER than his career number. That sounds good right? Well, his strikeout rate this season is 13%. Wait, that would mean, uh, wait, really? Yeah, his career strikeout rate is 9.9%. There are no words.

Quick Breakdown: If what you really want is two strikeouts in five innings, you may be able to find that here.

Chris Flexen
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	4	5.97	7.02	15.9%	14.6%	42.6%	32.7%	23.6%
	L30	4	5.99	7.02	15.9%	14.6%	42.6%	32.7%	23.6%

In his first four career starts, Flexen has made it clear that he was not ready for the jump from Double-A to the majors. He could’ve used some time in Triple-A as his strong minor league numbers have not carried over. He has a 7.02 ERA, 5.98 SIERA, 15.9% strikeout rate and 14.6% walk rate. He has skills, and eventually they’ll probably shown up, but there is no case to be made for using him until he shows some serious improvement.

Quick Breakdown: Double-A numbers don’t count up here. Cannot use him until he figures it out.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

We’ve seen this Mets rookie get torn apart in his first four starts, so until he proves that he can get major league hitters out, I will look to keep rolling bats out against him. Most of Flexen’s issues have been against left-handed batters. Though it’s an extremely small sample size, the batted ball splits are extreme enough that I want to focus on lefties as much as possible. However, from the right side, Giancarlo Stanton continues Flexen his muscles and Marcell Ozuna has all kinds of power, so those two beats are very much in play as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

Nicolino is one of those guys that isn’t quite as awful in real life as his peripherals would suggest, so you shouldn’t just blindly load up against him. He has always shown a decent ability to limit hard contact, as well as keeping the ball on the ground against lefties. We know right-handed bats will put the ball in play, so you want to focus on righties with hard hit ability of their own.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Juan Lagares, Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Conforto

Stackability – YELLOW

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