MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-23 03:01:15

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Cleveland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cleveland					Baltimore
			Trevor Bauer					Dylan Bundy
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -113					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.305	16	22.4%	10.4%	SP vs. Left	0.344	3	14.0%	6.5%
SP vs. Right	0.300	15	22.5%	9.2%	SP vs. Right	0.369	3	25.0%	9.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Trevor Bauer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		27.4	FPPG:		14.5
					Pitcher Rating:		59.9	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	4	125.3	3.98	3.13	21.5%	9.2%	8.2%	56.7%	26.7%	38.9%
2016	14	125.1	4.07	3.36	21.7%	8.5%	9.3%	49.7%	32.0%	34.4%
2015	30	95.6	4.20	4.55	22.9%	10.6%	9.6%	39.2%	40.7%	31.0%

This game has one of the highest over/unders on the schedule tonight, but Bauer does have some GPP appeal. He comes into the game in good form, posting a 3.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate or 21.5% over the last month of play. The Orioles are a powerful offense, but they also strikeout at a high rate. On the season, they have a 22.5% k-rate against right-handed pitching. Now, that doesn’t mean we should throw Bauer into our cash lineups, but he does have strikeout upside and he should be low owned in this full slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dylan Bundy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$4,700	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		8.9	FPPG:		4.2
					Pitcher Rating:		54.0	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	1	70.0	3.42	3.18	31.5%	11.1%	13.2%	20.7%	48.3%	30.0%
2016	1	70.0	4.36	3.70	19.5%	8.1%	10.2%	29.5%	46.5%	29.0%

Bundy has looked great coming out of the bullpen this season, but he struggled a bit in his first start. He allowed three home runs against the Rays in less than four innings of work. He only threw 70 pitches in that start and will likely throw less than 100 tonight, even if he is pitching well. He’s an easy fade for me tonight against the Indians, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA (.334) and team ISO (.196) against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians see a favorable ballpark shift tonight playing in Camden Yards. They also draw a favorable matchup against Dylan Bundy, who is still inexperienced as a major league starter. The sample size is obviously small, but Bundy has allowed a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .369 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. With one of the highest team totals on the board, the Indians can be targeted in all league formats.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.334 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.196 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.02 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.83 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.354	0.234	0.387	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,000
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.386	0.198	0.552	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,500
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.349	0.163	0.400	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,900
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.310	0.193	0.543	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,900
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.310	0.131	0.276	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$4,300
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.317	0.148	0.331	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100
7	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.322	0.162	0.216	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.436	0.321	0.513	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,800
9	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.308	0.163	0.173			C	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.344	0.190	0.377	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the most potent offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, ranking third in both team wOBA and team ISO this season. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Trevor Bauer, but they do get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. From a splits standpoint, handedness isn’t a big issue against Bauer – he has allowed a .305 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .300 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.342 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.195 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.85 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.67 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.339	0.206	0.284	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900
2	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.371	0.238	0.363	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,000
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.383	0.237	0.226	3B	$4,100	3B/SS	$3,700
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.349	0.208	0.341	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,600
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.390	0.316	0.346	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,600
6	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.342	0.244	0.339	3B	$3,000	1B	$3,400
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.325	0.166	0.073	C	$3,100	C	$3,500
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.270	0.114	0.396	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,800
9	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.325	0.171	0.173	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.344	0.211	0.282	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					Pittsburgh
			Zach Eflin					Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -225					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.304	4	7.0%	5.8%	SP vs. Left	0.287	6	24.2%	6.6%
SP vs. Right	0.328	2	15.9%	3.4%	SP vs. Right	0.279	8	21.8%	5.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zach Eflin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		21.6	FPPG:		10.8
					Pitcher Rating:		28.4	Pitcher Rank:		29
L30 Days	5	93.6	4.97	2.45	11.5%	3.1%	6.4%	39.1%	37.3%	27.0%
2016	7	90.4	5.17	4.14	11.5%	4.6%	6.3%	37.9%	39.3%	30.1%

Eflin may have a low ERA this season (2.45), but don’t fall into the trap. His peripheral statistics tell a completely different story, as he currently has a 4.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.5%. The Pirates’ offense has been ice cold over the last few weeks, but Eflin comes into the game as a heavy underdog that is pitching on the road. He can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Gerrit Cole
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$7,400
					FPPG:		29.4	FPPG:		14.8
					Pitcher Rating:		84.4	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	1	80.0	3.90	9.00	25.0%	10.0%	5.0%	38.5%	15.4%	38.5%
2016	13	94.4	4.29	3.11	19.4%	7.1%	7.8%	42.7%	30.3%	28.9%
2015	32	101.2	3.23	2.60	24.3%	5.3%	10.2%	48.0%	29.6%	29.5%

Cole missed more than a month with an triceps injury and his rust showed in his first start back. He struggled against the Nationals, allowing five runs in only four innings of work. He only threw 80 pitches in that game, which was probably a combination of the Pirates easing him back into action and the fact that he was struggling. I don’t expect him to throw a full complement of pitches tonight, but I could see somewhere in the range of 90-100 pitches. He grades out as one of the top targets tonight, as he is a heavy favorite pitching at home against the Phillies. He may not have the same upside as a few of the other pitchers in the slate, but he is one of the safest targets tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have a few hitters that we like to target in DFS, but overall their offense has been a disappointment. They are ranked 29th in runs scored per game this season and they come into tonight’s contest with the lowest implied team total on the board. With this being a full slate, the Phillies are an easy offense to fade. Gerrit Cole has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.295 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.158 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.4% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.56 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.28 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.349	0.143	0.148	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,100
2	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.285	0.151	0.202	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,900
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.339	0.205	0.198	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600
4	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.290	0.145	0.304	C	$3,200	C	$3,300
5	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.303	0.254	0.620	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,600
6	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.307	0.171	0.249	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,200
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.291	0.127	0.312	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,400
8	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.295	0.086	0.250	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,200
9	Zach Eflin	RIGHT	0.250	0.083	0.439	P	$5,900	P	$6,800
	Team Averages	—	0.301	0.152	0.302	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have been ice cold at the plate. If you look at their wOBA over the last two weeks, only Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Jordy Mercer have at least a .285 wOBA during that stretch. I’m not crazy about a Pirates’ stack here, but you can certainly target a few of their hitters against Zach Eflin. My favorite of the group is Andrew McCutchen, who has looked much better at the plate since the All-Star break.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.62 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.72 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.339	0.144	0.190	1B	$2,900	1B	$2,900
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.341	0.163	0.236	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,600
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.354	0.186	0.355	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.353	0.155	0.349	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,200
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.332	0.150	0.283	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,600
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.321	0.080	0.241	C	$2,900	C	$3,000
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.292	0.103	0.244	2B	$2,800	2B	$2,800
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.279	0.080	0.400	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.104	0.000	0.000	P	$8,500	P	$7,400
	Team Averages	—	0.302	0.118	0.255	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Matt Joyce (if he’s in the lineup)

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Diego					Washington
			Luis Perdomo					Tanner Roark
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -218					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.396	8	14.0%	6.1%	SP vs. Left	0.312	12	16.5%	8.3%
SP vs. Right	0.399	3	19.3%	9.4%	SP vs. Right	0.297	12	19.5%	4.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Luis Perdomo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		10.3	FPPG:		3.6
					Pitcher Rating:		44.3	Pitcher Rank:		23
L30 Days	4	86.5	3.74	3.97	14.3%	3.8%	8.1%	59.5%	19.0%	34.9%
2016	8	154.4	4.01	7.36	16.8%	7.8%	9.9%	57.3%	20.6%	33.6%

Perdomo hasn’t shown a ton of upside, but he is a better pitcher than most people give him credit for. Over the last month of play, he has a 3.74 SIERA with a walk rate of only 3.8%. The problem with Perdomo is that he doesn’t strike many batters out, which really limits his fantasy appeal. He comes into tonight’s game as one of the biggest underdogs on the schedule. He can be avoided against the Nationals on the road.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tanner Roark
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$10,500
					FPPG:		34.2	FPPG:		18.0
					Pitcher Rating:		77.6	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	4	109.3	3.77	1.72	20.3%	4.2%	9.2%	48.2%	31.8%	25.0%
2016	19	103.2	3.89	2.82	21.0%	7.1%	8.7%	52.5%	26.1%	23.3%
2015	12	150.0	4.16	4.38	15.0%	5.6%	7.1%	47.8%	30.6%	26.3%

I’m conflicted with Roark tonight. On the one hand, he is facing a Padres’ offense that is ranked 29th in both team wOBA and team K% against right-handed pitching. On the other hand, the Padres have been much better offensively over the last month of play. They hit lefties a lot better than they hit righties, but the Padres aren’t an automatic target for a pitcher anymore. I expect Roark to be fairly popular tonight, but he is a bit too expensive on DraftKings. If I end up on Roark tonight, it will be as my cash game pitcher on FanDuel.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have been better offensively over the last month of play. Their numbers against right-handed pitching on the season don’t inspire a ton of confidence, but Tanner Roark isn’t a pitcher that I would consider un-hittable. I’m not going to have a ton of exposure to the Padres tonight, but I am interested in Ryan Schimpf. He has shown a lot of power upside all through the minors and we are starting to see him breakout in the majors as well.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.288 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.6% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.38 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.57 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.314	0.108	0.307	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.336	0.208	0.246	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,400
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.303	0.170	0.300	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.343	0.183	0.362	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,000
5	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.305	0.158	0.371	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700
6	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.401	0.382	0.478	3B	$2,200	2B	$3,200
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.284	0.163	0.190	C	$2,800	C	$2,700
8	Alexi Amarista	LEFT	0.242	0.074	0.000	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,200
9	Luis Perdomo	RIGHT	0.125	0.000	0.000	P	$6,300	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.295	0.161	0.250	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are another offense that has been ice cold at the plate. In their currently projected lineup, only two players have a wOBA over .300 in the last two weeks of play. They draw a decent matchup tonight against Luis Perdomo, but I’m not as high on this lineup as most will be. Perdomo induces an elite ground ball rate of 57.3%. The left-handed power bats of Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper are elite plays, but I will be avoiding the rest of their lineup.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.0% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.68 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.93 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.300	0.079	0.206	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.288	0.127	0.323	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,200
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.377	0.222	0.571	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,900
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.441	0.309	0.259	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,100
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.316	0.151	0.292	C	$3,900	C	$3,900
6	Clint Robinson	LEFT	0.318	0.174	0.248	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,300
7	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.313	0.138	0.247	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.308	0.175	0.209	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,200
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.145	0.038	0.219	P	$8,700	P	$10,500
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.157	0.286	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					NY Yankees
			Madison Bumgarner					Masahiro Tanaka
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -105					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.228	4	33.5%	4.4%	SP vs. Left	0.285	17	22.3%	4.1%
SP vs. Right	0.271	31	26.4%	5.3%	SP vs. Right	0.279	19	21.0%	4.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Madison Bumgarner
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,500	Salary:		$13,000
					FPPG:		44.8	FPPG:		26.0
					Pitcher Rating:		87.6	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	105.4	2.71	2.94	31.3%	3.9%	11.2%	46.9%	37.0%	31.3%
2016	20	106.5	3.22	2.12	28.8%	6.1%	11.6%	40.9%	38.9%	32.7%
2015	32	103.5	3.00	2.93	26.9%	4.5%	12.5%	41.7%	35.6%	27.8%

Bumgarner is my favorite pitcher in the slate tonight, even though this game is basically set as a pick ‘em. He has been tremendous this season, posting a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.8%. Everyone is going to see that the Yankees don’t strikeout at a high rate and immediately think to discount Bumgarner because of it, but as I often mention, we don’t have to worry about the matchup nearly as much when a pitcher has an elite strikeout rate. All I see is a left-handed heavy lineup that is ranked 27th in both team wOBA (.304) and team ISO (.131) against southpaws this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Masahiro Tanaka
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		32.8	FPPG:		17.7
					Pitcher Rating:		72.7	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	5	97.4	3.60	3.86	24.6%	5.4%	11.3%	37.4%	35.2%	36.3%
2016	19	95.2	3.80	3.15	20.1%	4.6%	11.1%	48.6%	28.8%	33.2%
2015	24	95.4	3.36	3.51	22.8%	4.4%	11.4%	47.0%	33.8%	31.1%

Tanaka comes into tonight’s game arguably in his best form of the season. Over the last month of play, he has a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.6%. We’ve been waiting for that k-rate to creep up and he is finally starting to show some strikeout upside again. I wouldn’t put Tanaka in that same category as Madison Bumgarner though, so I will be factoring in his matchup against the Giants. On the season, San Francisco is ranked 11th in team wOBA (.318) and second in team strikeout rate (16.5%) against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Both of the pitchers on the mound tonight are in good form and both have high strikeout rates. Even though this game is being played in Yankee Stadium, the over/under is set at only 7.5 runs. This is an easy game to fade both of the offenses, as I do expect it to be more of a pitcher’s duel. Tanaka has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters, holding both under a .285 wOBA. Left-handed power hitters do benefit playing in Yankee Stadium though, so Brandon Belt could be worth a look as a one-off in tournaments.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 16.5% (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.64 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.78 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.349	0.120	0.270	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700
2	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.284	0.096	0.339	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
3	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.364	0.193	0.238	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,300
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.351	0.150	0.322	C	$3,400	C	$3,600
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.337	0.204	0.386	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,000
6	Conor Gillaspie	LEFT	0.281	0.145	0.207	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,000
7	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.324	0.118	0.383	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000
8	Ramiro Pena	SWITCH	0.415	0.204	0.336	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,400
9	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.428	0.269	0.266	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.348	0.167	0.305	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the worst offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching and they draw the worst matchup on the board tonight. Even though they are playing at home, there is no reason to target any of the Yankees’ bats against Madison Bumgarner. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.304 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.131 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 17.2% (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.15 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.72 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.315	0.098	0.348	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,400
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.291	0.085	0.238	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,500
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.358	0.231	0.362	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.370	0.249	0.264	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,100
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.313	0.139	0.224	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,400
6	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.308	0.112	0.323	3B	$2,700	3B	$2,300
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.316	0.079	0.375	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800
8	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.299	0.104	0.317	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,600
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.307	0.164	0.284	C	$2,400	C	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.140	0.304	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Seattle at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Seattle					Toronto
			James Paxton					Marco Estrada
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -166					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.409	2	18.3%	13.9%	SP vs. Left	0.276	23	19.3%	8.1%
SP vs. Right	0.304	10	19.2%	6.7%	SP vs. Right	0.261	15	21.4%	8.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
James Paxton
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$6,100
					FPPG:		26.8	FPPG:		12.6
					Pitcher Rating:		40.0	Pitcher Rank:		26
L30 Days	4	89.5	4.94	6.08	11.5%	5.8%	11.7%	48.8%	30.2%	37.2%
2016	9	98.2	4.04	4.56	19.3%	6.3%	11.4%	50.0%	27.8%	33.2%
2015	13	85.5	4.44	3.90	18.9%	9.8%	7.2%	48.3%	34.4%	29.7%

Paxton has shown some nice strikeout upside in the minors, but he has been rocked in his last four starts. His strikeout rate for the season is now under 20% and he gets the unfortunate task of having to face the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre tonight. Toronto hasn’t been as dominant against southpaws as they were a year ago, but they are slowly trending upward. They are now ranked inside the top ten in team wOBA (.332), team ISO (.170) and team strikeout rate (19.6%).

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$10,700
					FPPG:		35.5	FPPG:		20.2
					Pitcher Rating:		67.1	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	2	93.5	2.62	4.91	34.1%	4.6%	12.8%	25.9%	40.7%	33.3%
2016	16	100.6	4.24	2.93	24.1%	9.5%	10.6%	34.3%	48.9%	33.7%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

Estrada’s numbers are a bit confusing if you break them down into recent form vs. season long form. Overall, he has a 4.24 SIERA with a ERA of 2.93, which suggests some regression. However, over the last month of play, the opposite has happened. He has a 2.62 SIERA with an ERA of 4.91, which suggests improvement could be on the horizon. I’m not sure where I stand with Estrada right now and since he is facing a potent offense in a hitter’s park, I will be avoiding him in all league formats tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners have a lower implied team total than I expected. They draw a decent matchup against Marco Estrada and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. It’s not like the Mariners struggle against right-handed pitching. On the season, they are ranked fifth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO against righties. The Mariners are a sneaky offense to target tonight, especially in GPPs.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.336 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.183 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.75 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.12 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.319	0.105	0.314	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200
2	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.352	0.195	0.315	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.375	0.216	0.295	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,700
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.364	0.224	0.395	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.360	0.210	0.349	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,000
6	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.349	0.216	0.329	1B	$2,600	1B	$2,900
7	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.294	0.144	0.395	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.253	0.130	0.115	C	$2,500	C	$2,000
9	Shawn O’Malley	SWITCH	0.324	0.113	0.350	OF	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.173	0.317	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays are one of the top offenses to target tonight. The only issue is that there are so many teams on my radar. Toronto comes into the game with the fifth highest implied team total on the board, as they square off against the struggling James Paxton. The only downside in this matchup is that Paxton appears to be a reverse-splits pitcher, which could negate the right-handed heavy lineup a bit. That said, I will still be targeting the Blue Jays’ bats with confidence.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.332 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.6% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.98 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.88 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.311	0.162	0.413	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,900
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.441	0.310	0.435	3B	$4,700	3B	$5,300
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.379	0.268	0.425	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,400
4	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.367	0.196	0.307	C	$2,600	C	$3,600
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.417	0.292	0.210	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,100
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.362	0.192	0.287	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,300
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.305	0.103	0.289	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200
8	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.311	0.165	0.454	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,200
9	Junior Lake	RIGHT	0.356	0.229	0.200	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.361	0.213	0.336	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 22nd

Stackability Rating System:

Cleveland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Matt Joyce (if he’s in the lineup)

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Seattle at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW

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