MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 9th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
Rick Porcello R.A. Dickey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -115 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.351 16 20.2% 5.4% SP vs. Left 0.290 11 11.5% 7.7%
SP vs. Right 0.327 9 20.2% 4.8% SP vs. Right 0.322 14 16.7% 6.2%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,800
FPPG: 28.2 FPPG: 0.0
Pitcher Rating:3.5
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 3.73 20.2% 5.2% 21.8% 45.7% 1 5

I shouldn’t have to tell you not to start anything short of an elite ace at Toronto. But, in case I do have to tell you – Porcello is not an elite ace, so don’t start him at Toronto. He is a very respectable pitcher, and will be useful at times this season, but not today.

R.A. Dickey
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,000
FPPG: 27.0 FPPG: 10.5
Pitcher Rating:3
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 4.76 14.3% 6.9% 20.8% 41.9% 8 3

Dickey continues to defy father time (I feel like I’m supposed to capitalize ‘Father Time’ as if he’s a real person, but that would be ridiculous) with his knuckleball, posting an ERA under 4.00 the past two seasons in Toronto. But, his SIERA spiked to 4.76 in 2015 while his strikeout rate dropped to 14.3%. There’s always a chance the knuckleball can dance just right on any given day, but the chances for an implosion are much higher. Stick to the offenses in this game.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

All Red Sox hitters are in play against Dickey, as he gets hit by both right and left-handed batters when his knuckleball isn’t dancing just right. Dickey has allowed a higher wOBA to right-handed batters the past couple seasons, but seems likely to run into more trouble against lefties soon, as his strikeout rate against LHB fell to 11.5% in 2015.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Mookie Betts 0.348 OF $4,100 OF $5,000
2 Dustin Pedroia 0.343 2B $2,800 2B $4,000
3 Xander Bogaerts 0.320 SS $3,600 SS $3,800
4 David Ortiz 0.413 1B $3,900 1B $4,500
5 Hanley Ramirez 0.312 1B $3,100 OF $4,200
6 Travis Shaw 0.314 3B $2,500 1B $3,400
7 Brock Holt 0.310 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,100
8 Ryan Hanigan 0.269 C $2,100 C $2,700
9 Jackie Bradley 0.337 OF $3,200 OF $3,100

Elite Plays

David Ortiz – 2015 vs RHP – .413 wOBA, 161 wRC+
Mookie Betts – 2015 vs RHP – .348 wOBA, 117 wRC+

Secondary Plays

Xander Bogaerts – 2015 vs RHP – .320 wOBA, 97 wRC+
Travis Shaw – 2015 vs RHP – .314 wOBA, 93 wRC+
Dustin Pedroia – 2015 vs RHP – .343 wOBA, 113 wRC+

Toronto

Porcello has struggled against left-handed batters throughout his career, but was nothing spectacular against righties in 2015 with a .327 wOBA allowed and an average strikeout rate. He is not the ideal matchup for Toronto, but this loaded lineup is the most dangerous in the league against any pitcher. They led the league in wOBA and runs scored against right-handed pitchers in 2015.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Kevin Pillar 0.313 OF $2,900 OF $3,600
2 Josh Donaldson 0.390 3B $5,000 3B $4,700
3 Jose Bautista 0.395 OF $4,500 OF $4,600
4 Edwin Encarnacion 0.399 1B $4,100 1B $4,600
5 Troy Tulowitzki 0.319 SS $3,400 SS $4,100
6 Michael Saunders 0.196 OF $3,100 OF $3,400
7 Russell Martin 0.322 C $2,800 C $3,600
8 Ryan Goins 0.308 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,600
9 Darwin Barney 0.284 SS $2,200 2B $2,400

Elite Plays

Edwin Encarnacion – 2015 vs RHP – .399 wOBA, 155 wRC+
Jose Bautista – 2015 vs RHP – .395 wOBA, 152 wRC+
Josh Donaldson – 2015 vs RHP – .390 wOBA, 149 wRC+

Secondary Plays

Troy Tulowitzki – 2015 vs RHP – .319 wOBA, 89 wRC+
Kevin Pillar – 2015 vs RHP – .313 wOBA, 96 wRC+

NY Yankees at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

NY Yankees Detroit
CC Sabathia Mike Pelfrey
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -107 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.231 3 30.0% 4.3% SP vs. Left 0.367 6 11.9% 11.6%
SP vs. Right 0.370 25 16.2% 7.5% SP vs. Right 0.313 5 12.2% 1.4%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,300
FPPG: 24.9 FPPG: 0.0
Pitcher Rating:2.5
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 4.08 18.9% 6.9% 21.7% 45.9% 2 20

It’s now three straight seasons of disappointing results for Sabathia, so we need to assume he is not going to return to being the pitcher he once was. His strikeouts have fallen below league average, and a 4.08 SIERA in 2015 shows he is just another guy at this stage of his career, and not the ace he used to be. Detroit poses a bad matchup for him and he can be safely avoided in all formats.

Mike Pelfrey
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,200
FPPG: 19.7 FPPG: 0.0
Pitcher Rating:2.5
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 4.59 12.0% 6.3% 22.8% 50.8% 5 12

Pelfrey had the second lowest strikeout rate of all major league starters in 2015 at just 12%. He can throw the occasional quality start due to his good control and ground ball rate, but his lack of strikeout ability leaves him vulnerable to getting hit hard every day, and should leave him far off your radar.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Left-handed batters are the way to attack Mike Pelfrey, as his low strikeout rate is joined by a heightened walk rate and fewer ground balls to lefties. He allowed a .367 wOBA against LHB in 2015. This is one of the top games to target for offense today.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jacoby Ellsbury 0.294 OF $3,400 OF $4,500
2 Brett Gardner 0.323 OF $2,900 OF $4,200
3 Alex Rodriguez 0.349 3B $2,900 1B/3B $3,800
4 Mark Teixeira 0.399 1B $3,400 1B $4,400
5 Brian McCann 0.325 C $3,300 C $3,700
6 Carlos Beltran 0.358 OF $3,300 OF $3,700
7 Chase Headley 0.298 3B $2,500 3B $3,600
8 Starlin Castro 0.290 2B $3,300 2B/SS $3,300
9 Didi Gregorius 0.311 SS $2,800 SS $3,100

Elite Plays

Mark Teixeira – 2015 vs RHP – .399 wOBA, 155 wRC+
Brian McCann – 2015 vs RHP – .325 wOBA, 104 wRC+
Carlos Beltran – 2015 vs RHP – .358 wOBA, 127 wRC+
Brett Gardner – 2015 vs RHP – .323 wOBA, 102 wRC+

Secondary Plays

Jacoby Ellsbury – 2015 vs RHP – .294 wOBA, 82 wRC+
Alex Rodriguez – 2015 vs RHP – .349 wOBA, 120 wRC+
Chase Headley – 2015 vs RHP – .298 wOBA, 86 wRC+

Detroit

Sabathia is the perfect pitcher for this Detroit offense to face. He has completely lost his way against right-handed batters, and the Tigers are loaded with power righties. Sabathia allowed a .370 wOBA in 2015 and a .401 wOBA in 2014 to RHB.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler 0.332 2B $3,400 2B $4,100
2 Justin Upton 0.362 OF $3,500 OF $4,200
3 Miguel Cabrera 0.408 1B $4,300 1B $4,700
4 Victor Martinez 0.264 C $3,000 1B $3,900
5 J.D. Martinez 0.369 OF $3,400 OF $4,200
6 Nick Castellanos 0.283 3B $2,500 3B $3,600
7 James McCann 0.267 C $2,300 C $3,000
8 Jose Iglesias 0.291 SS $2,300 SS $3,100
9 Anthony Gose 0.314 OF $2,700 OF $3,100

Elite Plays

Miguel Cabrera – 2015 vs LHP – .435 wOBA, 180 wRC+
J.D. Martinez – 2015 vs LHP – .385 wOBA, 145 wRC+
Ian Kinsler – 2015 vs LHP – .345 wOBA, 118 wRC+
Victor Martinez – 2015 vs LHP – .375 wOBA, 138 wRC+
Nick Castellanos – 2015 vs LHP – .414 wOBA, 165 wRC+

Secondary Plays

James McCann – 2015 vs LHP – .390 wOBA, 149 wRC+
Justin Upton – 2015 vs LHP – .250 wOBA, 58 wRC+

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Cincinnati
Gerrit Cole Raisel Iglesias
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -135 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.266 5 24.3% 6.3% SP vs. Left 0.332 4 16.8% 7.6%
SP vs. Right 0.283 6 24.3% 4.3% SP vs. Right 0.271 7 34.8% 6.7%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $10,200
FPPG: 38.7 FPPG: 0.0
Pitcher Rating:9
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 3.23 24.3% 5.3% 22.4% 48.0% 24 13

Cole has continued to improve every season and is living up to the hype he earned by being the #1 overall pick in the 2011 draft. Last season, he was strong in every category with a 24.3% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate, 48% ground ball rate and a 3.23 SIERA. The Reds offense has a lot of holes and should give Cole every opportunity to put up a strong opening start to his 2016 season. Even with several aces on the mound, Cole can be considered in all formats.

Raisel Iglesias
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,600
FPPG: 33.0 FPPG: 19.9
Pitcher Rating:8
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 3.26 26.3% 7.1% 21.0% 47.2% 14 17

The Reds’ Raisel Iglesias has plenty of hype of his own after coming over from Cuba in 2015. He showed he was no fluke with a 26.3% strikeout rate and an impressive 77 strikeouts in 66 innings after the All-Star Break. He faces a difficult Pirates lineup today, leaving him a notch below the top arms on the slate, but he is in consideration as a GPP option due to his strikeout upside.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Iglesias was nasty against right-handed batters in 2015 with a 34.8% strikeout rate, but fell to 16.8% against lefties with a .332 wOBA allowed. I mostly recommend avoiding this game altogether on the offensive side, but if you want to play Pirates, left-handed bats would be the way to do it.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 John Jaso 0.358 1B $2,600 OF $3,000
2 Andrew McCutchen 0.376 OF $4,700 OF $4,600
3 David Freese 0.328 3B $2,600 3B $3,100
4 Starling Marte 0.344 OF $3,300 OF $4,300
5 Francisco Cervelli 0.332 C $2,500 C $3,000
6 Gregory Polanco 0.323 OF $3,500 OF $3,900
7 Josh Harrison 0.306 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,500
8 Jordy Mercer 0.250 SS $2,300 SS $2,800
9 Gerrit Cole P $10,000 P $10,200

Elite Plays

Secondary Plays

Gregory Polanco – 2015 vs RHP – .323 wOBA, 107 wRC+

Cincinnati

Cole was outstanding against both right and left-handed batters in 2015, with a .266 wOBA against LHB and a .283 wOBA against RHB, and he is still improving as a pitcher. I suppose Joey Votto could be used if you really want to, but there is not much reason to look at batters against Cole today.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Zack Cozart 0.310 SS $2,700 SS $2,800
2 Eugenio Suarez 0.321 3B $3,200 SS $3,300
3 Joey Votto 0.423 1B $3,800 1B $4,300
4 Brandon Phillips 0.317 2B $2,400 2B $3,300
5 Devin Mesoraco 0.247 C $2,300 C $2,900
6 Jay Bruce 0.317 OF $3,600 OF $3,600
7 Adam Duvall 0.374 OF $2,200 OF $3,100
8 Scott Schebler 0.379 OF $2,400 OF $2,800
9 Raisel Iglesias P $8,000 P $8,600

Elite Plays

Secondary Plays

Joey Votto – 2015 vs RHP – .423 wOBA, 170 wRC+

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Cleveland Chicago White Sox
Cody Anderson Chris Sale
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CWS -170 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.309 5 11.2% 7.5% SP vs. Left 0.281 0 34.0% 6.3%
SP vs. Right 0.260 4 12.8% 5.9% SP vs. Right 0.285 23 31.7% 4.7%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Cody Anderson
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,400
FPPG: 26.5 FPPG: 0.0
Pitcher Rating:3
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 4.89 12.1% 6.6% 20.5% 45.9% 25 16

Anderson was given a spot in the Cleveland rotation after a strong spring. I was surprised to see this, and I am not expecting it to end well. A glance at his 3.05 ERA from 2015 may make you optimistic, but the underlying metrics are terrifying. He had a 12.1% strikeout rate, which was the third worst rate in all of baseball. He had a BABIP of .237, while the league average is around .300. He was lucky, not good. His SIERA was 4.89, and that’s closer to where I expect him to end up this season. Of course, there is a chance that he’s one of those rare guys who can get things done with a poor K rate, much like Mark Buehrle learned to do late in his career, but I’m officially in the anti-Cody Anderson camp.

Chris Sale
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: $12,000 Salary: $12,100
FPPG: 48.0 FPPG: 25.0
Pitcher Rating:9.5
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 2.52 32.1% 4.9% 22.1% 42.6% 9 5

Sale is in the conversation for the second best starter in all of baseball behind Clayton Kershaw. He was 2nd in the majors in strikeout rate, 3rd in swinging strike % and 2nd in SIERA in 2015. He had 13 starts with double digit strikeouts and struck out at least six batters in 28 of his 31 starts. Because he is in better position to pick up a win than Clayton Kershaw today, feel free to consider him the #1 starter in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Sale will give up the occasional HR to right-handed batters, but there is no reason to play Cleveland batters today against an elite pitcher.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Rajai Davis 0.324 OF $2,700 OF $3,000
2 Jason Kipnis 0.296 2B $3,000 2B $3,500
3 Francisco Lindor 0.381 SS $3,200 SS $3,400
4 Mike Napoli 0.403 1B $2,800 1B $3,200
5 Carlos Santana 0.333 1B $3,200 1B $3,500
6 Yan Gomes 0.235 C $2,500 C $2,900
7 Marlon Byrd 0.347 OF $3,100 OF $3,300
8 Juan Uribe 0.379 3B $2,200 3B $2,800
9 Collin Cowgill 0.256 OF $2,200 OF $2,200

Elite Plays

Secondary Plays

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox can be used liberally in all formats against Cody Anderson. He keeps the ball in the zone with underwhelming stuff.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Eaton 0.291 OF $3,200 OF $4,400
2 Melky Cabrera 0.261 OF $2,700 OF $3,600
3 Jose Abreu 0.288 1B $3,700 1B $4,800
4 Todd Frazier 0.377 3B $3,600 3B $4,400
5 Avisail Garcia 0.324 OF $2,200 OF $3,600
6 J.B. Shuck 0.307 OF $2,200 OF $3,000
7 Brett Lawrie 0.354 2B $2,300 2B/3B $3,600
8 Dioner Navarro 0.385 C $2,200 C $2,900
9 Tyler Saladino 0.284 SS $2,200 3B $3,200

Elite Plays

Jose Abreu – 2015 vs RHP – .384 wOBA, 144 wRC+
Adam Eaton – 2015 vs RHP – .367 wOBA, 133 wRC+
Todd Frazier – 2015 vs RHP – .331 wOBA, 107 wRC+

Secondary Plays

Melky Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – .323 wOBA, 102 wRC+

LA Dodgers at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers San Francisco
Clayton Kershaw Madison Bumgarner
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD -125 6.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.242 5 38.1% 2.5% SP vs. Left 0.240 2 32.9% 4.0%
SP vs. Right 0.228 10 32.6% 5.4% SP vs. Right 0.272 19 25.7% 4.6%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Kershaw
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: $13,000 Salary: $14,200
FPPG: 60.0 FPPG: 36.6
Pitcher Rating:10
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 2.24 33.8% 4.7% 21.8% 50.0% 17 5

It didn’t take long to get a playoff caliber matchup between Cy Young caliber pitchers, and division rivals no less. Kershaw is hands down the best pitcher in the world right now. He opened the season with a seven inning one-hit shutout with 9 strikeouts. In 2015, he was as good as ever, posting a 2.24 SIERA with a 33.8% strikeout rate, a 4.7% walk rate and the highest swinging strike rate among all starters at 15.9%. You could quibble that he may have a tough time picking up a win against Bumgarner, any way you slice it he is the best pitching option today and every day he’s on the mound. NOTE – The weather looks highly questionable for this game, so keep an eye on Kevin Roth’s weather report before locking these pitchers in your lineup.

Madison Bumgarner
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $11,600
FPPG: 36.0 FPPG: 15.3
Pitcher Rating:9.5
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 3.00 26.9% 4.5% 22.7% 41.7% 4 12

Bumgarner is one of the few pitchers in the league who could have the chance to keep up with Kershaw. Bumgarner had a rough spring and a tough first start, though he was dealing with nagging injuries and then the flu. I’m going to side with the past five years and 1000+ innings of elite skills over one questionable start. He has strikeout ability and impeccable control which always keeps his walks down and his ERA low. Probably only the 3rd best choice on this ace loaded slate, but in play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

If you are looking to use batters in this game, you’re doing it wrong.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Chase Utley 0.252 2B $2,600 2B $2,900
2 Corey Seager 0.398 SS $3,600 3B/SS $3,400
3 Justin Turner 0.327 3B $3,000 3B $3,000
4 Adrian Gonzalez 0.340 1B $3,600 1B $3,700
5 Yasiel Puig 0.393 OF $3,700 OF $3,900
6 1.256 Position Salary 0 $0
7 Joc Pederson 0.298 OF $3,000 OF $3,200
8 A.J. Ellis 0.395 C $2,300 C $2,800
9 Clayton Kershaw P $13,000 P $14,200

Elite Plays

Secondary Plays

San Francisco

NO!

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Denard Span 0.250 OF $3,600 OF $3,200
2 Joe Panik 0.340 2B $3,100 2B $3,100
3 Buster Posey 0.366 C $4,000 1B/C $3,500
4 Hunter Pence 0.245 OF $3,300 OF $3,600
5 Brandon Belt 0.349 1B $3,200 1B $3,400
6 Matt Duffy 0.403 3B $3,400 1B/3B $4,100
7 Brandon Crawford 0.307 SS $3,000 SS $2,900
8 Madison Bumgarner P $11,200 P $11,600
9 Angel Pagan 0.316 OF $2,800 OF $3,000

Elite Plays

Secondary Plays

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About the Author

  • Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood)

  • One of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy, Dave Potts, aka CheeseIsGood, has won contests at the highest levels of both season-long and DFS. He is a two-time winner of a million dollar first place prize in DFS; having won the 2014 FanDuel baseball live final and following that up by taking down a DraftKings Millionare Maker Tournament in 2015. In addition, he’s won the Main Event championship in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and the NFBC Platinum League, which is the highest buy-in entry league. His consistent success in the NFBC tournaments recently earned him a prestigious spot in their Hall of Fame. Dave can also strum a mean guitar while carrying a tune and if you’re lucky, you’ll see him do so on one of his GrindersLive appearances.

    Follow Dave on Twitter – @DavePotts2

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Comments

  • calicapper22

    haha!

  • TheCompletePackage

    I definitely capitalize Father Time….just like I would capitalize Zeus the myth god or Ralph the family dog. I am not sure being a ‘real person’ is the qualifier. Just my opinion though! I love that you played around with the idea. Thanks, I enjoy stuff like this.

  • Lafan310

    Like how you put up the lineup. One thing to consider adding woould be which side of the plate the hitters swing from. Props tho..good work. Thanks

  • Lafan310

    Like how you put up the lineup. One thing to consider adding woould be which side of the plate the hitters swing from. Props tho..good work. Thanks

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