NFL Grind Down: Week 14 - Page Two

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-12-11 20:49:13

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans Saints						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	50.5	23				-4.5	50.5	27.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.9	9	2	26		Offense	22.6	18	25	2
Opp. Defense	24.8	23	13	7		Opp. Defense	31.7	32	31	32
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	18	11	17	16		New Orleans Saints	32	29	21	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cooks	98	61	7	848		Evans	110	54	3	852
Snead	72	46	3	682		Jackson	61	32	3	538
Colston	55	37	1	445		Humphries	27	19	0	184
Watson	75	54	4	642		Seferian-Jenkins	16	10	2	170

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Willie Snead (NO, Questionable), Brandin Cooks (NO, Doubtful), Mark Ingram (NO, Out)

NO Matchup Rating: 6.0
TB Matchup Rating: 8.0

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: Remember the Tampa Bay defense that was allowing tons of fantasy points earlier this season, and for most of the past few years? That defense has apparently gone into hiding, as the Bucs have been one of the tougher teams to score against in recent weeks. After allowing 30 or more points in four of the team’s first six games, the Buccaneer defense has allowed 30 or more in just one of their last six, a span which has included four games of 20 points or fewer allowed. Their weighted DVOA, which favors recent games over games that took place earlier in the season, ranks 13th, and is noticeably better than their year-long metric. Drew Brees (FD $7,900, DK $6,800) and company will visit the Gulf Coast of Florida for this matchup, taking away the favorable home dome and replacing it with a cool but unpredictable outdoor stadium in the Bay Area. Brees has not thrown more than two touchdowns in a single game on the road this year, and has at least one interception in each road start. He’s just not the same player away from home, and against an improving Bucs defense, he’s easy to avoid for more favorable options elsewhere.

Running Game: The Bucs have been pretty good against the pass lately, but have still allowed opposing passing games to move the ball and score touchdowns over the past month. The same cannot be said for running backs, as the Bucs have not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 3, and have not allowed a back to rush for more than 64 yards since Week 9. Mark Ingram has surprisingly been ruled out for the rest of the season, which when combined with the loss of Khiry Robinson, means the Saints are down to backups of backups at the running back spot. Tim Hightower (*FD $4,500, DK $3,000) is available for the minimum salary on both major sites, and will likely see a boost in usage as the best “every down” back on the active roster for the Saints. He averaged a respectable four yards per attempt against Washington a few weeks ago, and should be able to provide replacement level play over 10+ touches at a very affordable price. But he has just a dozen or so touches in the NFL since 2011, and C.J. Spiller (*FD $4,800, DK $3,000) is going to see an uptick in opportunities as well. He offers more explosiveness and upside, and should see a decent volume, but neither player is a “must-start.” If we get any clarity as to the roles of these backs, you can start either in cash games on FanDuel due to the incredibly low price. Otherwise, consider either guy a premier tournament option, with Spiller preferred on DK for his reception potential.

Pass Catchers: The Bucs have been playing better against the pass in recent weeks, but still are prone to allowing opposing wideouts to get free for a healthy amount of catches and yards. Donte Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton both had solid games against the Bucs a couple of weeks ago, while Odell Beckham and Julio Jones managed decent totals with limited ceilings. This adds appeal to Brandin Cooks (FD $7,100, DK $6,200), who is consistently leading the Saints in targets, and has big play potential. But he’s looking less and less likely to play due to a concussion, which would mean Marques Colston, Brandon Coleman and Willie Snead would likely see a bit more work, but with concerns about consistency and ability to pick up points against an improving Tampa Bay defense. Benjamin Watson (FD $5,300, DK $4,400) has seen pretty regular target totals for the past two months, and is a tournament tight end option against a team ranked 20th at defending the position this year, per DVOA. If Cooks is out, he’ll likely see a couple of bonus targets.

The Takeaway: The Saints will find it tough to take their offensive show on the road and win in Tampa, as the Bucs are playing well on defense and New Orleans has strong splits favoring their team with the ball at home. But due to recent injuries on offense, there’s value to be found at running back and wideout, but not a lot of clarity as to roles or workloads. Ben Watson is the safest play of the bunch.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback: The Bucs have a high implied team total this week thanks to a favorable matchup with the Saints, who have the worst defense in the NFL, anchored by the worst pass defense from a fantasy points allowed, DVOA, and numberFire metric standpoint. Jameis Winston (FD $7,800, DK $5,500) has been on a roller coaster of production at times this season, but took advantage of a great matchup in Week 11 against the Eagles, throwing for five touchdowns, and could post a similar line against the Saints. However, the Bucs do their best to limit Winston’s pass attempts, as he’s thrown the ball fewer than 30 times in five of his last eight starts. He’s still good for a handful of rushing attempts as is a threat to score in goal-to-go situations as a runner. Winston has a very high ceiling this week, as the Saints allow fantasy points by the shipload this season, but his floor is still fairly low, as the Bucs may take the ball out of his hands if the running game gets going. He’s a cash game option, but is better for tournaments.

Running Game: Doug Martin (FD $8,000, DK $6,200) took a seat for a couple of drives last week after fumbling, proof that Lovie Smith will ruin his offense to prove a point, but otherwise the Buccaneer back has been running well and deserving of big touch totals this season. Martin has 20 or more carries in six starts this year, and has 90 or more total yards on eight occasions. His touchdowns have been few and far between outside of a three-touchdown eruption against the Jaguars, but the Saints allow a touchdown per week to opposing running backs, and rank 27th in DVOA against the run. They’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing backs, and Martin should help to keep that number high this week.

Pass Catchers: Mike Evans (FD $8,000, DK $7,200) and Vincent Jackson (FD $6,800, DK $4,500) are finally playing together, and after two weeks, we’ve learned that Winston likes to throw to both, but may slightly prefer the younger Evans. Still, the duo dominate the looks in the passing game, with returning tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (FD $5,500, DK $2,700) likely to see the bulk of the leftover targets. The three players mentioned are all great red zone threats, and likely to see a somewhat limited volume against one of the league’s worst defenses. This has me leaning toward the cheaper players for tournaments (Jackson and ASJ), while forgoing them all and using Winston in cash game situations, should I want exposure to this offense. Seferian-Jenkins would be the top tournament play, as the Saints are terrible against tight ends, allowing the most points to the position this year and ranking last in DVOA.

The Takeaway: The Saints are a mess on defense, but the Bucs will look to slow the game down and keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. This somewhat limits their upside, especially when we consider the plethora of options at their disposal on offense, with three pass catchers and two backs in the mix. Winston or Martin should be the top play, depending on your preference for the run or pass in this matchup, while any of the pass catchers are strong in tournaments.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets

Tennessee Titans						New York Jets
Sunday – 1 p.m.						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	43.5	18.25				-7	43.5	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.4	26	23	18		Offense	24.6	11	15	14
Opp. Defense	20.7	11	18	1		Opp. Defense	24.7	21	10	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Jets	10	4	26	9		Tennessee Titans	27	3	22	22
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wright	57	33	3	407		Marshall	130	83	10	1062
Douglas	47	23	2	227		Decker	97	59	8	801
Green-Beckham	43	21	3	362		Kerley	26	16	2	152
Walker	86	67	4	800		Cumberland	13	5	0	77

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Kendall Wright (TEN, Questionable)

TEN Matchup Rating: 2.0
NYJ Matchup Rating: 6.5

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: Marcus Mariota (FD $7,500, DK $5,700) has scored seven touchdowns in his last two starts, and has three or more touchdowns in three of his last five games. He has finally started running the ball more often, with five or more rushing attempts in three of his last four, and two rushing scores over that span. That provides nice upside for the rookie passer, who has a very low floor, as well, and a matchup with a difficulty level yet to be determined. The Jets have struggled against the pass just a bit in recent weeks, as Darrelle Revis has been sitting out with a concussion, and may not be able to return for this game against the Titans. But even with Revis, the Jets have allowed some respectable quarterback performances from names like Carr, Bortles and even Yates. There’s potential for a sneaky good game for Mariota here, as New York has allowed 13 touchdowns and grabbed only three picks in their last six games. Consider Mariota as another sneaky GPP play for a big tournament this weekend.

Running Game: Antonio Andrews (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) remains the lead back for the Titans, but last week saw the real introduction of David Cobb (FD $4,500, DK $3,300) into the lineup. This will likely divide the carries the rest of the way for a rushing offense that was already mediocre and tough to trust, and this week’s matchup means we can safely ignore the Titans’ backs. The Jets rank first in DVOA against the run, and 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. New York has allowed only one rushing touchdown from running backs all season, and has not allowed a back to go for more than 58 rushing yards in the last three games.

Pass Catchers: Kendall Wright (FD $5,200, DK $4,100) would be an appealing option against a defense that has struggled to defend slot receivers this season if he were healthy, but his status is up in the air and he’s seemingly been limited for most of the year even when deemed healthy enough to play. Dorial Green-Beckham (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) is slowly working his way into the offense, and if both Wright and Revis are out, he’s a very interesting play in tournaments, especially in a stack with Mariota. No matter who is in or out, Delanie Walker (FD $6,100, DK $5,600) is the top pass catcher in this offense, and merits weekly consideration as a high volume tight end in a league lacking in solid options at the position. The Jets allowed Will Tye to snag three passes for 70 yards last week, and could have some weaknesses to tight ends the Titans could figure out this week.

The Takeaway: The Titans may fall flat on their face in this tough road matchup, but the Jets have shown weaknesses in recent weeks. Mariota and Walker are the preferred plays, but check the injury reports, and fire up DGB if Revis is out and the Titans are dealing with injuries at WR.

New York Jets

Quarterback: The Titans have allowed eight passing touchdowns in their last two games, and Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,800, DK $5,400) has six of his own over his last two games. This sets up well for the New York quarterback, who has multiple touchdowns in all but one of his full-length appearances this year. The Titans rank 24th against the pass according to numberFire, and have allowed the seventh-most points to opposing quarterbacks. Fitzmagic’s price remains fairly low on DraftKings and other sites, and he is viable for cash games there, but is a better tournament option on all sites thanks to the combination of good recent form and a solid matchup.

Running Game: In a competitive game against the Giants, Bilal Powell (FD $4,800, DK $3,500) saw a whopping 13 targets, bringing his three-week total to 25 since re-entering the rotation for the Jets. He has also received four or more rushing attempts in each of those three games, meaning we can expect 10-12 opportunities for Powell, including several in the passing game. This is a great situaiton for PPR sites, and even decent for non-PPR sites where his price remains low. The Titans, however, have the top DVOA defense against backs in the passing game, and have allowed the fewest receptions and the fewest touchdowns (zero) to opposing backs as receivers this season. Chris Ivory (FD $7,100, DK $5,000) will look to bounce back after losing a fumble and sitting out for most of the Jets’ last outing, and will face a defense that has been tough to score fantasy points against, but fairly easy to run against for opposing backs. Ivory isn’t impacted all that much by the Titans’ elite RB pass defense, and should have a decent day on the ground if he can hold onto the ball.

Pass Catchers: Brandon Marshall (FD $8,200, DK $7,600) and Eric Decker (FD $7,300, DK $6,400) are the only two names you need to know in the New York pass-catching ranks. Marshall has 100+ yards and at least one touchdown in each of his last two, while Decker has scored or hauled in 100+ yards of passes in all but two games this season. The Titans were torched by slot receiver Seth Roberts just a couple of weeks ago, but have generally been weak against opposing team’s top wideouts, so Marshall and Decker both have favorable matchups and can be used in all formats.

The Takeaway: Ryan Fitzpatrick and his top two wideouts are in play in all sorts of daily fantasy contests this week, while Chris Ivory is a decent tournament play. p.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers						Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	49.5	23.5				-2.5	49.5	26
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.9	6	5	6		Offense	27.8	4	14	10
Opp. Defense	16.3	1	14	9		Opp. Defense	20.0	7	30	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	2	10	9	13		Pittsburgh Steelers	23	2	30	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	137	93	7	1338		Green	106	70	7	1037
Bryant	63	31	7	655		Sanu	37	25	1	375
Wheaton	51	28	3	524		Jones	77	47	4	628
Miller	56	39	1	390		Eifert	68	46	12	522

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Heath Miller (PIT, Questionable), Tyler Eifert (CIN, Questionable)

PIT Matchup Rating: 5.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 6.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback: The last time these teams played, Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,300, DK $6,800) played his first snaps in weeks and struggled to throw the ball to the right team. He still finished with 262 yards and a touchdown, but three picks ruined his night. He has since battled another pair of injuries, but has scored multiple touchdowns in three of four, and over 330 yards passing in each of his last four appearances. He’s going to throw the ball early and often in competitive matchups, and he’s going to find the end zone once or twice, with upside for more. However, the Bengals are a pretty tough matchup, ranking seventh in DVOA against the pass and having allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to QBs this season. Carson Palmer showed that there are fantasy points to be scored against the Bengals, and Big Ben is on that level and capable of matching the veteran QB’s output. But that’s a ceiling, not a reasonable expectation, and with no other multi-touchdown outings from opposing passers since Week 3, this Cincy defense is tough to target, even with a very good passer. That leaves Roethlisberger as a GPP target, and a strong one at that, as many will be scared away by the matchup.

Running Game: The Bengals are not a matchup to avoid for running backs, but they’re not a particularly favorable one, either. Thomas Rawls was able to have a huge day against this defense, while LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and DeAngelo Williams (FD $7,300, DK $6,000) all had respectable outings. The main issue with playing a running back against Cincy is the lack of scoring, as RBs have found the end zone only twice on the ground this year against the Bengals. And if you ignore Marcel Reece, who is more of a TE/H-Back/utility player, only two running backs have scored receiving touchdowns against Marvin Lewis’ team this year. Williams is still priced fairly, and will continue to get all the touches he can handle, so he’s a wise investment in cash games. But the Bengals’ ability to keep RBs out of the end zone combined with his probable popularity combine to create a good “fade” situation in tournaments.

Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown (FD $9,300, DK $8,900) and Martavis Bryant (FD $7,400, DK $5,700) both posted big numbers last week, and are the top targets again this week for the Pittsburgh passing offense. The duo move around and swap sides fairly often, meaning both will see sporadic coverage from Adam Jones. This isn’t enough to discourage me from using my preferred Steeler wideout in DFS, but the overall quality of the Cincy pass defense means we’re unlikely to see both posting 100+ yard, one-touchdown outings like last week. Both are worthy of tournament consideration, with Brown getting the edge for me thanks to his superior talent and volume. If Heath Miller (FD $5,400, DK $3,200) returns, he’s a decent option (especially on DraftKings) against a defense that could not be more average against tight ends (16th in fantasy points allowed, 17th in DVOA). And the party is over for Markus Wheaton (FD $6,100, DK $3,600) this weekend, as the Bengals have a good slot corner, and he’s unlikely to be the open man when Big Ben surveys the field.

The Takeaway: The Steelers have a high-powered offense that could drop 30 points in any given contest, but the Bengals have a pretty good defense that limits the upside for the Pittsburgh stars. Williams is the top option, while Brown and Big Ben are the best of the rest.

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback: After his meltdown against the Texans, I thought it was all over for Andy Dalton (FD $8,200, DK $6,600). But he continues to prove his doubters wrong, picking up eight total touchdowns with only one interception in the three games since that 197 yard, no-touchdown clunker against Houston. The Steelers have allowed the tenth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, while their advanced metrics (14th in DVOA, 12th in numberFire’s rankings) suggest they’re on the other side of average when it comes to defending the pass. That’s because most of the fantasy points allowed came at the hands of a trio of passers who combined for 13 touchdowns in three games (Brady, Carr, Wilson). The other nine quarterbacks to face the Steelers this season have combined for only ten touchdowns. So much like we saw with Roethlisberger above, the floor and median projection for Dalton should be kept low, but there’s high upside to be found if things fall the right way. I would rank Dalton ahead of Big Ben as a GPP target at QB, and think he’s a solid play in tournament formats, but a bit too risky to trust in cash.

Running Game: The Steelers have a very, very good run defense, ranking fourth in DVOA and first in numberFire’s data. This has led to a defense that’s allowed the fourth-fewest points to the position on the year, with only four total touchdowns scored by opposing backs. The last time these teams met, Jeremy Hill (FD $6,400, DK $4,600) had a very mediocre output, with 60 yards on 15 carries, while Giovani Bernard (FD $5,700, DK $4,100) was invisible. Since then, Hill has been the more consistent performer as a runner (thanks to a couple of blowout wins), but Bernard has flashed his upside at times. This should be a competitive contest, and that should bring Bernard into the picture a bit more from a gameplan perspective, and make both players tough to select in daily fantasy. An elite run defense against a split backfield means low floors and low ceilings. I’d pick Bernard if forced to roster one in a GPP, but will likely avoid both players altogether in Week 14.

Pass Catchers: The health of Tyler Eifert (FD $6,300, DK $5,600) will go a long way in determining the state of the Bengal passing attack. A.J. Green (FD $8,500, DK $7,900) is always a strong play, and the Steelers rank 26th in defending opposing WR1 according to Football Outsiders. Seven different receivers have gone for over 100 yards against Pittsburgh this season, including Green himself, and the UGA product will likely increase that total to eight this weekend. From here, it hinges on Eifert’s health. If the tight end is good to go, he’ll be a strong option against a Pittsburgh pass defense that has allowed big games to big name tight ends already this year (Gronkowski, Gates, Barnidge). He had a bit of a down game in the previous meeting between these teams, and will likely be less than 100%, which leaves him as a top tournament play rather than a cash game option. If Eifert sits out, Marvin Jones (FD $6,200, DK $4,200) is the player to target. In last week’s blowout, Jones was the only other WR to see more than one target, and is clearly going to be Dalton’s second option with Eifert sidelined. However, I still plan to have Mohamed Sanu (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) in a lineup or two if Eifert is out, as he should have an increased role over the middle of the field in a more competitive game than a contest against the Browns.

The Takeaway: The Cincinnati passing attack has potential, but not without risk. A.J. Green is a solid play, while Dalton and Jones are secondary options. Keep an eye on the status of Tyler Eifert, and fire him up in tournaments if he’s healthy and active. p.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans

New England Patriots						Houston Texans
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	44.5	24				3.5	44.5	20.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.3	2	1	28		Offense	21.1	22	12	19
Opp. Defense	22.0	14	3	21		Opp. Defense	20.6	10	19	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	17	18	6	15		New England Patriots	9	14	18	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
LaFell	56	25	0	369		Hopkins	152	86	10	1169
Amendola	73	56	3	593		Washington	76	39	3	543
Martin	16	10	1	148		Shorts	71	40	3	522
Gronkowski	92	57	9	931		Fiedorowicz	17	14	1	147

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Rob Gronkowski (NE, Doubtful)

NE Matchup Rating: 8.0
HOU Matchup Rating: 4.5

New England Patriots

Quarterback: Tom Brady (FD $9,300, DK $7,800) could step under center with the offense of the University of Wyoming around him, and he’d still be viable in daily fantasy football. He has great coaches and a great understanding of the game of football, and is the foundation for his team’s offense. Brady has seven total touchdowns over the last two weeks, and has only one game without multiple scores so far this season. He’s gone over 300 yards in seven of 12 starts, and even added a reception for 36 yards to his resume last week. The Texans are a pretty good pass defense, ranking tenth in DVOA, but so are the Broncos, who Brady threw for 280 yards and three scores against with a similarly depleted offense. His price is prohibitive for cash games, as you can get good players at lower prices, but he’s definitely in play for GPP contests, especially against a team that has allowed big days through the air to Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Tannehill and Alex Smith so far this year.

Running Game: LeGarrette Blount (FD $6,300, DK $4,800) continues to play the role of “lead back’ for the Patriots, receiving the most carries on the roster in every game since Week 2. That doesn’t mean his volume is consistent, as his carries have varied from 29 to 3 over that span. It also doesn’t mean his production is consistent, as he’s actually a subpar talent at running back, with good balance and the ability to break away for a big run, but poor vision and no plus athletic traits. The Texans allowed 112 yards rushing to LeSean McCoy last week, and prior to that allowed Lamar Miller and Frank Gore to both go over 90 yards and a touchdown on the ground. There is a precedent for success for backs against the Texans, but Blount and the New England offensive line are tough to trust. The Texans rank 24th in defending backs in the passing game, which means James White (FD $6,300, DK $4,100) will see some opportunities for success in the passing game. However, his team is unlikely to be trailing as often as they were against the Eagles, so his huge workload in the passing game will almost certainly diminish. His price may be too high, even in PPR formats, for the floor he offers.

Pass Catchers: Danny Amendola (FD $7,000, DK $5,200) and Brandon LaFell (FD $6,400, DK $4,700) are the last men standing on the New England offense, as the duo are the top two options in the passing game with all of the injuries that have impacted the receiving corps. They’re a nice complement to one another, and while neither is particularly great, they offer a downfield threat (LaFell) and a possession receiver (Amendola) who can keep a defense honest. Keshawn Martin (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) appears to be next in line at receiver for New England, but would need another blowout loss to see eight or more targets as he did in Week 13. Scott Chandler (FD $5,800, DK $3,800) was the only tight end to be targeted against the Eagles last week, and managed to score a touchdown and pay off his price tag for those who rolled with him at a bargain salary. His price has gone up this week, and the matchup is similarly difficult, so his expectations should be kept low once again. Amendola has the best man-to-man matchup in the slot against Kareem Jackson and any other third corners the Texans roll out, and would join Leonard Hankerson, Bryan Walter, Jarvis Landry and Eric Decker as among the slot wideouts to torch the Texans this season. Amendola is your best bet here, with LaFell and Chandler lagging behind. If Rob Gronkowski returns from injury this week, consider him in tournament lineups, but don’t trust him to play his regular complement of snaps in his first game back.

The Takeaway: Amendola is the top all-around play, and is a wide investment in any format on any site. Brady, Blount, Chandler and LaFell are all viable in tournaments, but are either too expensive (Brady), too inconsistent (Blount), or in too tough of a matchup (LaFell, Chandler) to use in cash games.

Houston Texans

Quarterback: The defenses for the Patriots and Texans are a lot alike from a statistical standpoint, with slightly above average pass defenses and mediocre run defenses. That’s a less-than-ideal situation for Brian Hoyer (FD $7,000, DK $5,200), who has thrived in good matchups this season, but hasn’t been tested that often (and failed when faced with the Cincinnati defense). New England has allowed only three touchdowns over the last three weeks, and six over the last six. The Patriots are his former team, so latch on to the narrative if you’d like, but I will probably sit out this week on Hoyer, and wait for a pair of better matchups in the weeks ahead.

Running Game: The Texans handed the ball to four different backs last week, and it was Chris Polk (FD $5,200, DK $3,600) who received the most carries and who found the end zone. Previously, it had been Alfred Blue (FD $5,300, DK $3,800) leading the way in the post-Arian backfield for the Texans, but as it stands, none of these players can be trusted to see even a handful of carries. The Patriots aren’t a run defense to be worried about, but the Texans don’t have an obvious back to trust in daily fantasy. Polk and Blue would be the obvious choices, but there’s not enough volume for both to succeed, and figuring out which one will have a better game may be an impossible task.

Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins (FD $8,700, DK $8,500) has taken a bit of a lesser role in the Houston offense over the past couple of weeks, seeing single-digit targets for the first two times this year. He has five receptions in four straight games, and while he has four touchdowns over that span, he also has some disappointing yardage totals (57, 36, 88) mixed in. Hopkins is a talented player, and no one for the Patriots can cover him reliably. But New England will account for him and cover him as well as they can, and with Hopkins’ diminished role, that’s enough for me to pass up on Nuk this weekend. Slot receivers like Chris Hogan, Eric Decker and Dwayne Harris have posted 80 or more yards in their matchups with the Patriots this season, and Cecil Shorts (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) could be next in line. Shorts has seen his targets fluctuate from week to week, but after seeing ten targets last week and bringing in six catches for 91 yards, he’s earned continued trust from his quarterback. He’s also been handed the ball eight times over the past three weeks, and has even thrown a pass for a touchdown. The Texans will get him involved however they can, and he has a good matchup when he’s running routes. He’s an interesting GPP option.

The Takeaway: Cecil Shorts is the only Houston player that interests me in what should be a difficult matchup with the Patriots.

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