NHL Grind Down: Friday, December 18th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes – 07:00 PM EST
| Florida Panthers | Carolina Hurricanes | ||||||||
 | Roberto Luongo |  | Cam Ward | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 15-12-4 | 12-14-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.52 | 2.39 | 18.40% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 2.48 | 3.06 | 17.50% | 76.00% |
The Panthers picked up an impressive 5-1 victory in New Jersey last night and will make the trip south to square off against the Hurrcianes tonight. Florida is not the most exciting team in the NHL from a fantasy standpoint and this Carolina team has allowed the fewest shots on goal against per game in the NHL this season, so this does not look like the most fantasy friendly game on the board. However, Florida did roll to a 4-1 victory in their only previous meeting this season and the Hurricanes are sporting an ugly 76.0% penalty kill this season. With that in mind, targeting the Panthers power-play certainly has some merit. The Panthers have spread their scoring out pretty well this season, but it’s Jaromir Jagr and Jussi Jokinen tied for the team lead with 21 points. Alternatively, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck and Brandon Pirri also log a healhy dose of playing time with the man-advantage and are fine secondary options. Aaron Ekblad looks destined for stardom in this league and, while he saw his three game point streak snapped last night, he’s tallied three goals and two assists over the last six games and is easily the #1 choice from the Panthers blue-line
The Hurricanes lost in overtime against Philadelphia and aren’t the most fantasy friendly team in the league, but tonight’s matchup certainly doesn’t scare me away. After a very ugly start to the season, the Hurricanes have won four of their last six games and their 96.5 team PDO suggests that they’ve been the most unlucky team in the league this far. Carolina doesn’t have a ton of offensive firepower but Eric Staal remains the focal point of the offense and centers the dangerous top line alongside Kris Versteeg and Elias Lindholm. While they’ll likely receive the majority of the attention from both DFS players and the Florida coaching staff, it’s Jeff Skinner that has my attention. Fresh off of a hat trick against the Flyers, the former 33 goal scorer has exploded lately, scoring nine goals and adding an assists over the last six games. On defense, Justin Faulk actually leads this team with 26 points and has proven to be a deadly weapon on the point of their top power-play unit.
Elite Options
FLA: Jaromir Jagr, Jussi Jokinen, Aaron Ekblad
CAR: Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk
Secondary Options
FLA: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Brandon Pirri, Brian Campbell
CAR: Kris Versteeg, Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask, Noah Hanifin
Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins – 07:00 PM EST
| Boston Bruins | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Marc-Andre Fleury | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 17-9-4 | 15-12-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.17 | 2.63 | 29.40% | 80.00% | Team Stats | 2.23 | 2.40 | 14.80% | 83.50% |
While both of these two long-time Eastern Conference Rivals appears have moved a bit past their “prime”, both teams figure to be major players in the playoff race come early springtime. With that said, Boston shutout Pittsburgh 3-0 in the fist half of this home-and-home series and these teams are headed in completely opposite directions at the moment. After a very mediocre 8-8-1 start to the season, the Bruins have found their groove and posted a 9-1-3 record in the 12 games since. This is a deep Boston team, but it’s been each of their top two lines providing the lions share of the offense. While both lines look like fine plays, the Bruins have clicked an NHL best 29.4% clip with the man-advantage, and I’ll be focusing the majority of my attention on their power-play tonight. Patrice Bergeron is tied with Patrick Kane for the NHL lead in power-play points (16) and centers the lethal #1 unit where he’s joined by David Krejci, Loui Eriksson and Ryan Spooner up-front with the very Talented Torey Krug running things from the point. The second unit is headlined by Brad Marchand and Zdeno Chara, with both Matt Beleskey and Brett Connolly offering some very reasonably priced exposure. While they all look like fine options especially with Marc-Andre Fleury sidelined, Pittsburgh does own an impressive 83.5% penalty kill, so you may not want to over exposure yourself in cash games.
Pittsburgh has grown accustomed to winning hockey since Sidney Crosby arrived, but this team looks to be in total disarray at the moment. They fired Mike Johnston over the weekend, but that bold move hasn’t paid any dividends on the ice yet as Pittsburgh has only scored once while losing both games since. The Penguins are just 5-7-3 over their last 15 games, and despite having arguably the most offensive firepower in the NHL, they’re averaging just 2.23 goals per game as we approach the mid-way point of the season. Claude Julien focused his attention firmly on shutting down the Evgeni Malkin line on Wednesday night as he responded with defensive weapons Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand everytime Malkin hopped over the boards. While Malkin is certainly talented enough to overcome the tough matchup, this is obviously a big blow to his (and his linemates, Phil Kessel and Sergei Plotnikov… for now) fantasy outlook tonight. In theory, this should open up the ice for the top line of Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz and David Perron, but it’s oddly somewhat difficult to trust them in cash games at this point. With Kris Letang on injured reserve, Olli Maatta, David Warsofsky and Trevor Daley will divide the playing time on the power-play, making all three fine value options on defense against the Bruins mediocre 80.0% penalty kill.
Elite Options
BOS: Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Torey Krug
PIT: Sidney Crosby
Secondary Options
BOS: Loui Eriksson, Ryan Spooner, Brad Marchand, Matt Beleskey, Zdeno Chara
PIT: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz, Phil Kessel, David Perron, Olli Maatta, David Warsofsky, Trevor Daley
Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals – 07:00 PM EST
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Ben Bishop |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 16-13-3 | 22-6-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.41 | 2.22 | 16.50% | 78.10% | Team Stats | 2.97 | 2.13 | 22.90% | 83.30% |
The Lightning defeated the Maple Leafs on Tuesday for their second straight win, but will certainly have their hands full against the Eastern Conference leading Washington Capitals. With the Steven Stamkos rumors circulating and a distraction and both Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson missing in action, I’m not expecting Tampa Bay to leave our Nations Capital with two points tonight. Braden Holtby owns a ridiculous 20-4-1 record and 1.83 GAA on the season and has been ever better on home ice, so I’ll be viewing Tampa Bay more as GPP only plays tonight than usual. With several notable injuries up front, this is a one-line offensive attack for the Lightning as Steven Stamkos joins forced with Nikita Kucherov (and Vladislav Namestnikov) that will require the full attention of Washington’s defensive efforts. Both Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman soak up nearly all of the available playing time on the point of the power-play making them both fine GPP options as well.
The Washington Capitals enter tonight’s action sporting an impressive 22-6-2 and look like they’ll be legit Stanley Cup contenders this spring. They’ve gone 10-1-1 over their last 12 games and own a 12-3-1 record this season at the Verizon Center. Washington has defeated this Tampa Bay team in both prior meetings this season and are solid favorites by Vegas Standards as expected. Alex Ovechkin is obviously the focal point of the offense and leads the NHL with 146 SOG already on the young season. He won’t come cheap, but his ceiling is as high (or higher) every other player on the board. His linemates Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie are both finding their offensive groove as can be paired with Ovechkin to bring down the average cap-hit. Alternatively, Evgeny Kuznetsov scored a goal and added two assists in the two prior meetings against Tampa and he centers a fine secondary scoring line between Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams. With that said, this Tampa Bay team is allowing just 2.22 goals against per game this season and I’m not expecting an offensive shootout here. On defense, John Carlson has already racked up 24 points in 30 games this season and remains a top-tier option on the blue-line despite the mediocre matchup.
Elite Options
TBL: Steven Stamkos
WAS: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson
Secondary Options
TBL: Nikita Kucherov, Valtteri Filppula, Jonathan Marchessault, Vladislav Namestnikov, Anton Stralman, Victor Hedman
WAS: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson, Justin Williams, Matt Niskanen
San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators – 07:30 PM EST
| San Jose Sharks | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Martin Jones |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 15-14-1 | 16-11-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.57 | 2.63 | 17.70% | 81.90% | Team Stats | 2.97 | 2.88 | 20.40% | 78.30% |
The Sharks squeaked out an overtime victory in Toronto last night and will continue their tour of Canada tonight in the nation’s capital of Ottawa. While a back-to-back following a tightly contested overtime game is a concern, Ottawa is allowing a league worst 33.7 SOG/G this season while also allowing 2.88 goals against per game. Joe Pavelski leads the team with 15 goals and 16 assists in 31 games and is the top play up front. As usual he’ll be joined by Joe Thornton on the top line with veteran Dainius Zubrus slated to join them on the left-side, making him an intriguing value play. While that top line is the most dangerous, Patrick Marleau anchor a very capable second line with Joel Ward and Melker Karlsson on his wings. On defense, Brent Burns exploded for a goal (the game winner) and a pair of assists last night and his 138 SOG this season is trails only Alex Ovechkin for the NHL lead. With 11 goals and 15 assists on the season, it’s needless to say that he’s a top-tier option on the blue-line tonight if you can afford him.
It’s been a grueling schedule for the Senators thus far in December, and they’ll face another tough test tonight against San Jose. However, they should be ecstatic to be at home after playing five of their last six games on the road and luckily draw San Jose on the second half of back-to-back games. While their defense abilities can certainly be called into question, there’s no denying their offensive abilities as they’re averaging 2.97 goals per game this season. In looking to rebalance his scoring lines, Dave Cameron recently shifted Mika Zibanejad onto the top line to center Mike Hoffman and Bobby Ryan with the hopes that Kyle Turris light a spark on the second line with Mark Stone and Zack Smith. Both Ryan and Hoffman have recorded nine points in nine games this month with Stone and Turris trailing just a bit behind with 13 points combined. With Logan Couture out of action once again for San Jose, life should be a bit easier for both groupings. On defense, Erik Karlsson is arguably the cream of the crop among NHL defensemen from a fantasy perspective and, with a team high 35 points in 32 games, he should be well worth his big-ticket asking price.
Elite Options
SAN: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Brent Burns
OTT: Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson
Secondary Options
SAN: Patrick Marleau, Joel Ward, Dainius Zubrus, Tomas Hertl
OTT: Mika Zibanejad, Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Chris Wideman
Vancouver Canucks at Detroit Red Wings – 07:30 PM EST
| Vancouver Canucks | Detroit Red Wings | ||||||||
 | Ryan Miller |  | Jimmy Howard | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 11-13-8 | 16-9-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.50 | 2.84 | 18.40% | 77.90% | Team Stats | 2.52 | 2.52 | 18.20% | 81.70% |
The Canucks were shutout in Philadelphia last night and have now fallen to an ugly 11-14-8 record. They’ll continue their six-game road trip tonight in Detroit and it’s becoming more and more clear as the season goes on that this team is on the verge of a total rebuild. The Sedin Twins are really the only two reliable scoring options, but they’ll likely be shadowed by the pestering defense of Pavel Datsyuk tonight and therefore are better served for GPP use. The Canucks have averaged just 1.40 goals per game over their last 12 games, so I won’t be targeting this team at all tonight. Update: Henrik Sedin is unlikely to play tonight. This looks like a situation to avoid altogether.
Detroit blew a late third period lead on Monday and saw their streak of picking up at least one point in a game snapped at 13 games. They’ll look to get back on the winning track tonight as the worn out Vancouver Canucks limp into the Joe Louis Arena. While the Wings have now lost two games in a row, they’re finally getting back to full health and look to be buying into Coach Blashill’s new system. The Wings are deep up front with three very capable scoring lines, but it’s been the top line of Abdelkader, Zetterberg and Larkin that has been the most productive thus far. That trio has combined for 17 goals, 22 assists and a +15 in 19 games at the Joe Louis Arena this season and will likely be a matchup problem all evening for the Canucks. While Pavel Datysuk has clearly earned his nickname as the “Magician”, he’s hinted that he’s still working his way back into full game shape and his line will likely be deployed by Coach Blashill to slow down the Sedin Twins. Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar are both tied for the team lead with 11 goals and join forces around Riley Sheahan, but they’re inconsistencies make them better GPP targets than cash game ones. On the blue-line, both Mike Green and Niklas Kronwall benefit from extended playing time with the man-advantage and are rock solid options against the Canucks uninspiring 77.9% penalty kill.
Elite Options
VAN: Daniel Sedin
DET: Henrik Zetterberg, Dylan Larkin, Justin Abdelkader, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall
Secondary Options
VAN: Henrik Sedin, Jannik Hansen, Radim Vrbata, Alex Edler
DET: Pavel Datsyuk, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Brad Richards