NHL Grind Down: Friday, October 30th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-11-01 15:13:08

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

NOTE: Listed team records are from last season.

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres – 07:00 PM EDT

Philadelphia Flyers					Buffalo Sabres
			Steve Mason					Robin Lehner
			Record					Record
			33-31					23-51
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.59	2.72	23.40%	77.10%	Team Stats	1.87	3.28	13.40%	75.10%

Both of these teams were in action last night, so while tired legs may be a factor in general, at least it’s a level playing field here. The Sabres surprised this Flyers team on Tuesday as they left the City of Brotherly Love with a 4-3 overtime victory. The Flyers aren’t an elite team in the NHL, but they definitely have have way more firepower than Buffalo and should be highly motivated to get revenge. Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek represent one of the most dynamic offensive pairings in the NHL, and both players are elite options up front tonight despite their rather uneventful start to the season. Buffalo was last in the league in nearly every defensive category last season, but most notably they owned the league’s worst penalty kill. Fortunately for the Flyers, things don’t seem to have changed as their 69.6% penalty kill percentage to start this season is embarrassing and once again last in the league. With that in mind, I’ll be targeting the Flyers top power-play heavily. Along with the aforementioned Giroux and Voracek, Wayne Simmonds and Michael Raffl join the party up front. On the blue-line, the veteran Mark Streit continues to put up big offensive numbers and actually leads this team in scoring to start the season (two goals and four assists).

The Sabres aren’t the joke they were last year, but they’re still not stable source for fantasy value. Ryan O’Reilly has been a force with his new team, scoring three goals and adding five assists in the first nine games. He’s teamed up with Tyler Ennis to provide to take some of the pressure off of youngster Jack Eichel. While Eichel has looked brilliant at times with the puck on his stick, he’s also been a defensive liability on occasion as well. Cody Franson was another key addition to this team during the offseason and is likely one of their building blocks for the future. The talented young defenseman has already picked up four assists this season and is logging over 20 minutes per game. The Evander Kane injury really hurts Buffalo’s depth up front and, even in a nice matchup against the Flyers, this is simply not a team I can trust in cash games. The guys mentioned above certainly deserve consideration in GPPs, but there are just too many other options on the board this evening.

Elite Plays

PHI: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit
BUF: None

Secondary Play

PHI: Wayne Simmonds, Michael Raffl, R.J. Umberger, Brayden Schenn, “(player-popup)Michael Del Zotto
BUF: Jack Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Tyler Ennis, Cody Franson

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers – 07:00 PM EDT

Toronto Maple Leafs					New York Rangers
			Jonathan Bernier					Henrik Lundqvist
			Record					Record
			30-44					53-22
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.51	3.13	15.90%	80.50%	Team Stats	3.02	2.28	16.80%	84.30%

It’s been a rough start to the Mike Babcock era in Toronto, and after dropping a 4-3 decision at home against the Coyotes on Monday, the Maple Leafs have now lost four straight games and will take the ice at Madison Square Garden with just a 1-5-2 record. With Phil Kessel no longer in the picture, there’s just not much of a reason to invest in this Maple Leafs team in your cash games this evening. The Rangers are deep, physical and backed by one of the games best goaltenders in Henrik Lundqvist. They’re allowing just 1.90 goals against per game this season and have only allowed 11 5on5 goals through their first 10 games played. Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk and Dion Phaneuf have led the charge offensively, but considering them as anything other than GPP options seems like a mistake.

The Rangers got back on the winning track in their last outing and should be very fresh for tonight’s game after getting four straight days off. While this Toronto team actually gave them fits last season, this is still an excellent matchup for New York and one that I’ll want plenty of exposure to. The Maple Leafs have allowed the second most shots on goal per game to start the 2015-16 season (33.0 SA/G) and have allowed 3.25 goals against per game thus far. The Rangers are a superior hockey club in nearly every aspect, and they should make that very obvious tonight. After winning the President’s Trophy last season, the Rangers once again find themselves out in front in the Metropolitan Division, and their balanced scoring has been a major factor in their success. While their forward depth is a great weapon for Alain Vigneault, it’s been a massive hindrance for DFS players so far. It’s been a very slow start for Rick Nash, but there’s no way he stays quiet for much longer and he’s still the biggest offensive weapon on this team. With Toronto posting an abysmal 71.9% penalty kill so far this season (and struggling all year last year, as well), targeting Nash and the other four members of the Rangers top power-play unit looks like a very strong play tonight.

Elite Plays

TOR: None
NYR: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan, Keith Yandle, Henrik Lundqvist

Secondary Play

TOR: James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf, Morgan Rielly
NYR: Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh

Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals – 07:00 PM EDT

Columbus Blue Jackets					Washington Capitals
			Sergei Bobrovsky					Braden Holtby
			Record					Record
			42-35					45-26
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.77	3.02	21.70%	80.20%	Team Stats	2.89	2.43	25.30%	81.20%

The Blue Jackets picked up a much needed victory in New Jersey on Tuesday, but they’re ugly start to the season has really put them in a hole in a hole to start the season, much like we saw from the last year. They’ll be ecstatic to get Ryan Johansen back on the ice tonight, but his return coincides with the loss of Brandon Saad (illness). Traveling to Washington to battle Braden Holtby and the Capitals will not be an easy task, but there is some GPP appeal to this team. Johansen was joined by Brandon Dubinsky and Cam Atkinson in practice on Thursday, and the side/speed combo of those three together could be a matchup problem for this Capitals team. With Brandon Saad out, and Johansen lined up elsewhere, Nick Foligno fantasy value takes a tumble. However, he did post 73 points last season and could team up with Scott Hartnell to form a very gritty and offensively capable second scoring line. With the Capitals having allowed the fewest shots on goal per game in the league this season (24.3), I’ll have limited (if any) exposure to the Blue Jackets in this one.

Columbus has been a bit of a trainwreck to start the season, and their 4.1 goals against per game is the worst in the league, making Washington a very desirable team to target tonight. The Capitals should be hungry tonight after seeing their six game winning streak snapped by the Penguins on Wednesday night and their offensive firepower is one of the least kept secrets in the NHL. Alex Ovechkin is the games most dangerous sniper, and not only led the league in goals last year with 53, but dominated everyone with 395 shots on goal. Both T.J. Oshie and Evgeny Kuznetsov have thrived playing alongside him on the Capitals top forward line and the three have combined for 12 goals and 16 assists through the first eight games. Nicklas Backstrom no longer skates with Ovechkin at even-strength, but he does center the top power-play unit (that was the best in the NHL last season) and he’s off to a nice start after missing the first week of the season (seven points in five games). On the blue-line, John Carlson has already posted two goals and eight assists on the young season and looks poised for a monster offensive season as the quarterback of that top power-play unit. Fire him up with confidence in this plus matchup. Matt Niskanen has shown flashed of offensive talent throughout his career and sees a healthy dose of playing time on the point of the second power-play unit; with a pair of goals and three assists in the first eight games, he’s a fine value option.

Elite Plays

CBJ: None
WAS: Alexander Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson

Secondary Plays

CBJ: Ryan Johansen, Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Jack Johnson
WAS: Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson, Matt Niskanen

Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes – 07:00 PM EDT

Colorado Avalanche					Carolina Hurricanes
			Semyon Varlamov					Cam Ward
			Record					Record
			39-31					30-41
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.55	2.72	15.00%	84.60%	Team Stats	2.23	2.67	18.80%	84.70%

The Avalanche have broke out of a four game losing streak last night, but have still looked like one of the worst teams in the league to start the 2015-16 season. The team has never been strong by Corsi standards in recent years, but they’ve been a dreadful puck possession team so far again this season and actually own the league’s worst 40.5 CF%. The Avalanche had only scored five goals during their four game losing streak prior to last night and simply aren’t a team I trust in cash games at this point even in a fine matchup on paper against the Hurricanes. Nathan Mackinnon and Gabriel Landeskog are both extremely talented young forwards and have teamed up together so far to produce nearly all of the Colorado offense. That tandem has scored nine goals and picked up seven assists and lead the Colorado forwards in average ice-time (at roughly 19:30/game). With Carolina dealing with some tired legs after a tough matchup in New York last night, MacKinnon and Landeskog should definitely be on your GPP radar. Veteran Jarome Iginla and Matt Duchene offer plenty of offensive upside, but just haven’t played very well on either end of the ice thus far this season. Francois Beauchemin was brought in during the offseason to stabilize things offensively, but he’s already dished out six assists and has seen more offensive freedom than he grew accustomed to in Anaheim. The other fantasy option on the Avs Blue line is former first overall pick, Erik Johnson. He’s already scored a pair of power-play goals on the season and has tallied 23 goals and 42 assists in 135 games over the past 2+ seasons.

The Hurricanes aren’t typically a team I target often, but I don’t want to be late to the “pick on Colorado” party as I think that’s quite possible where things are heading. Colorado has allowed over 30 shots on goal per game so far this season and were busy chasing the Tampa Bay Lightning around the ice in last night’s game. However, these two teams met last week in Denver and left attending fans seeking a refund as Carolina grinded out a snooze-fast for a 1-0 OT victory. I’m definitely not expecting fireworks from this game tonight, but I do expect Carolina to pick up two points. Eric Staal remains the Hurricanes premier goal scorer and he lit the lamp against Detroit in their last game. His linemates Victor Rask and Elias Lindholm make for fine value options simply from an opportunity standpoint. Bill Peters still seems unsure of where to put the newly acquired Kris Versteeg, but the former has a pair of 50+ point seasons under his belt and owns a goal and four assists already this season. On defense, this Justin Faulk is the player to target. The emerging star leads the team in points this season and is averaging nearly 26 minutes of ice-time per game. Colorado may own a very strong penalty kill, but Faulk has already potted three goals on the power-play this season is locked into big minutes on the point of the Hurricanes #1 power-play unit.

Elite Plays

COL: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog
CAR: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk

Secondary Play

COL: Jarome Iginla, Matt Duchene, Erik Johnson, Francois Beauchemin
CAR: Victor Rask, Jeff Skinner, Kris Versteeg, Elias Lindholm, Ryan Murphy

Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers – 07:30 PM EDT

Boston Bruins					Florida Panthers
			Tuukka Rask					Roberto Luongo
			Record					Record
			41-27					38-29
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.55	2.45	17.80%	82.00%	Team Stats	2.41	2.60	16.30%	80.00%

Things looked gloomy in Beantown after the Bruins were embarrassed in three straight games to start the season, but they’ve now won four of their last five games and have averaged over five goals per game during that stretch. These two teams split their four meetings last season and we’re starting to see a bit of a growing rivalry. The Bruins are loaded with plenty of depth up front, but it’s been their top two lines carrying the offensive load (as expected). Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand continue to be a force both offensively as well as on the defensive end, and both carry very reasonable prices across the industry. While Milan Lucic departure was expected to be a blow to David Krejci fantasy value this season, the veteran center has exploded for seven goals and seven assists in the first eight games and is clearly comfortable playing alongside Loui Eriksson and David Pastrnak on the team’s top forward line. The Panthers are an improving team, but ignoring their ugly 80% penalty kill from last season could be a mistake. While the four guys mentioned above all see plenty of run with the man advantage, this fact also very much opens the door for blue-liners Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara to be worth a look in cash games. Krug looks to have taken the reigns as the quarterback on the #1 power-play unit and has already racked up seven assists this season, making him the more appealing option.

The Panthers fell just short of making the playoff in the Eastern Conference last season, but are an emerging young team and it would be somewhat surprising to see them left out once again this season. The Boston Bruins loom as one of many teams likely fighting for one of those final playoff spots, and Florida should be eager to make a statement tonight. The Panthers have ridden strong goaltending and a balanced scoring attacked to win two straight games and they’re hopeful to get Jaromir Jagr back in the lineup tonight but will definitely be missing Aleksander Barkov. They top line of Jagr/Huberdeau/Bjugstad will likely be shadowed by both Bergeron and Marchand all evening, making their lives very difficult tonight. While it’s not enough to fade them completely, it’s definitely a strong argument for looking much harder at some of their secondary scoring options. Vincent Trocheck, Brandon Pirri, Jussi Jokinen and Reilly Smith have all chipped in some strong offensive numbers this season and are all very reasonably priced. On the blue-line, Aaron Ekblad shines as one of the brightest young stars in the game and I find it hard to believe he won’t improve upon his impressive 39 point rookie season. Brian Campbell scored a goal and added a pair of assists against Colorado and has settled into his role as a power-play specialist at this point in his career.

Elite Plays

BOS: Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Torey Krug
FLA: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad

Secondary Plays

BOS: Loui Eriksson, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Zdeno Chara
FLA: Jaromir Jagr, Vincent Trocheck, Reilly Smith, Brian Campbell

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