NHL Grind Down: Monday, October 12th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders – 01:00 PM EDT
| Winnipeg Jets | New York Islanders | ||||||||
 | Ondrej Pavelec |  | Jaroslav Halak | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 43-26 | 47-28 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.72 | 2.49 | 17.80% | 81.80% | Team Stats | 2.99 | 2.73 | 18.70% | 78.00% |
Winnipeg has looked very impressive in each of their first two games (also on the road) and will look to keep things rolling today as they head to Brooklyn to battle the Islanders. Former first round draft pick Mark Scheifele came on strong during the second half of last season, and after scoring goals in each of the first two games, he looks to have joined up with Mathieu Perreault and Nikolaj Ehlers to finally give Winnipeg a fine secondary scoring line. While I won’t sleep on that line by any means, their emergence does add plenty of value to the Jet’s very lethal top line of Ladd/Little/Wheeler. The Islanders are a top-tier team in the Eastern Conference, but considering their ugly 78.0% penalty kill last season, I’ll want some exposure to this Winnipeg power-play. While the top six forwards are fine options, you’ll also want to pay close attention to Dustin Byfuglien as the “defenseman” soaks up power-play time and already has two 20 goals seasons under his belt.
This Islanders have yet to pick up a “W” this season, but with a home-and-home series against the defending Stanley Cup champs to open their season, it’s certainly not time to panic in New York. After two games of being shadowed by Jonathon Toews and Marian Hossa, John Tavares will be ecstatic to see a new opponent. He’s one of the most dangerous offensive players in league and his line mates (Anders Lee and Ryan Strome) reap the benefits. Their second forward line of Bailey/Nielsen/Okposo is underrated and very capable of producing offensively, but the Tavares line has my attention in cash games. The Islanders boast solid depth on the blue-line, but it’s youngster Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk that carry most of the fantasy value. Both players log big minutes on the power-play and showed plenty of offensive ability last season.
Elite Plays
WPG: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien
NYI: John Tavares, Anders Lee, Johnny Boychuk
Secondary Plays
WPG: Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers, Tobias Enstrom
NYI: Ryan Strome, Josh Bailey, Kyle Okposo, Mikhail Grabovski, Nick Leddy
Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins – 01:00 PM EDT
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Boston Bruins | ||||||||
 | Ben Bishop |  | Tuukka Rask | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 50-24 | 41-27 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.16 | 2.51 | 18.80% | 83.70% | Team Stats | 2.55 | 2.45 | 17.80% | 82.00% |
After losing in the Stanley Cup Finals last season, the Lightning are poised to make another deep run into the Stanley Cup Finals this spring and they’ve gotten out of the gates quickly by winning each of their first two games. They’ll leave head to Beantown to battle what looks like a declining Bruins team but this still represents their toughest test yet in this very young season. The Patrice Bergeron / Brad Marchand line for Boston is one of the most stout defensive units in the league, but Marchand is concussed and the Bruins will have to try to contain two very dangerous scoring lines for the Lightning. It’s a logical assumption that Boston will set out to slow down Steven Stamkos and his linemates, but considering the recent offensive production from Palat/Johnson/Kucherov, it’s certainly not set in stone. Whichever line can avoid Bergeron is obviously the more appealing fantasy option. On defense, Victor Hedman is an emerging star and has picked up assists on both games thus far making him an elite option. His defensive partner, Anton Stralman, sees plenty of run with the man advantage and comes with a much more reasonable asking price across the industry. Tampa Bay has been much less effective away from Amalie Arena over the past few years, so keep that in mind before investing too heavily in the Lightning.
The Bruins have dropped each of their first two games, and grabbing two points from the defending Eastern Conference championships is certainly not going to be easy. These two teams split their four meetings last season, but with them seemingly headed in completely opposite directions, you’ll need to tread carefully with the Bruins here. It’s possible that they’ll get Zdeno Chara back in action this afternoon, which would obviously be a big boost from both a moral standpoint as well as help sure up their defense as they’ve allowed 10 goals over the first two games. With Bergeron on defensive duty, the scoring responsibilities fall heavily on the new Krejci/Beleskey/Pastrnak line that looks dangerous in the offensive zone. The loss of Dougie Hamilton (and Zdeno Chara thus far) has clearly taken a toll on the Bruins defensive unit. With that said, Torey Krug continues to log huge minutes and has proven to be both offensively gifted and aggressive.
Elite Plays
TAM: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman
BOS: Torey Krug
Secondary Plays
TAM: Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Callahan, Ondrej Palat, Anton Stralman, Ben Bishop
BOS: Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Matt Beleskey, David Pastrnak, Tuukka Rask
Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres – 03:00 PM EDT
| Columbus Blue Jackets | Buffalo Sabres | ||||||||
 | Sergei Bobrovsky |  | Robin Lehner | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 42-35 | 23-51 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.77 | 3.02 | 21.70% | 80.20% | Team Stats | 1.87 | 3.28 | 13.40% | 75.10% |
In a battle of two winless teams, the Blue Jackets will head to Buffalo with the expectation of picking up two points against the Sabres. Much like the New York Islanders, the Blue Jackets fell victim to the NHL scheduling gods as they dropped both halves of a home-and-home series with the New York Rangers to open the season. However, this Columbus team came alive at the end of last season and nearly overcame a disastrous first half of the season to sneak into the NHL Playoffs. The Blue Jackets brought in the very experienced, but still young, Brandon Saad to play alongside Nick Foligno and Ryan Johansen to create one of the most dangerous forward lines in the NHL. While the Sabres should be improved this season, they’re still a team you’ll want to pick on and that line should be very highly owned in tonight’s somewhat short slate. The Jenner/Dubinski/Bourque line is a nice contrarian move for GPP use and Jack Johnson remains the top fantasy option from the Columbus blue-line. Sergei Bobrovsky has struggled a bit in net thus far this season, but he’ll be a very highly owned cash game goalie tonight…. and for good reason.
As I said earlier, the Sabres will be an improved hockey club this season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll offer much fantasy value. Jack Eichel is an exciting young talent who scored his first NHL goal on Thursday and, with Evander Kane on his wing, that duo should put up solid numbers and are really the only cash game options from Buffalo tonight. No offense to Buffalo fans, but even on a rather short slate, this is just not a team deserving much fantasy attention.
Elite Plays
CBJ: Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen, Brandon Saad, Jack Johnson, Sergei Bobrovsky
BUF: None
Secondary Plays
CBJ: Boone Jenner, Scott Hartnell, Brandon Dubinsky, Rene Bourque, Cam Atkinson, Ryan Murray
BUF: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane, Ryan O’Reilly, Cody Franson
Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers – 07:00 PM EDT
| Florida Panthers | Philadelphia Flyers | ||||||||
 | Roberto Luongo |  | Michal Neuvirth | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 38-29 | 33-31 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.41 | 2.60 | 16.30% | 80.00% | Team Stats | 2.59 | 2.72 | 23.40% | 77.10% |
This is an up-and-coming Panthers team that could contend for a playoff spot this season in the Eastern Conference, however, some growing pains are inevitably imminent this season as well. The Panthers exploded for to score seven goals against his Flyers team in their opener on Saturday and we’ll now see the scene shift to the City of Brotherly Love tonight. Based on the last meeting and the fact that Philadelphia was a disaster on defense last season, there’s definitely some intrigue in targeting this Panthers team. They have two very capable scoring lines up front, but with Philadelphia owning an unsightly 77.1% penalty kill last season, simply targeting the Florida power-play looks prudent here. With all six members of their top two scoring lines seeing plenty of run with the man advantage, simply pick your poison as they’re all fine options in all formats. Defensively, Aaron Ekblad walked away with the Calder Trophy last season and looks destined to be a Norris Trophy contender in the very near future. The playmaking Brian Campbell joins him at even strength and runs the point of the team’s #2 power-play unit, making him a fine defensive option as well.
Editor’s Note: Steve Mason (personal) has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Michal Neuvirth is expected to start.
As for Philadelphia, their ugly start is definitely a concern, but there is no denying their potential offensive firepower. What makes Philadelphia appealing by daily fantasy hockey standards is that the duo of Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek happen to be responsible for a disproportionate amount of the Flyers offense. Only two other duos in the NHL (Ovie/Backstrom and the Sedin’s) connected for points on the same goal more frequently than Giroux and Voracek last season (46 goals) and, with Florida also owning a subpar 80% penalty kill, both are elite options this evening. Simply by virtue of playing alongside those two and seeing time on the top power-play unit, Michael Raffl becomes one of the better values on the board. Wayne Simmonds carries the second scoring line and has a knack for the puck down-low on the top power-play unit, making him a fine option as well. On defense, Mark Streit runs the point of the #1 power-play unit and is the top option, with the resurrected Michael Del Zotto a fine value play.
Elite Plays
FLA: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jaromir Jagr, Nick Bjugstad, Aaron Ekblad
PHI: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit
Secondary Plays
FLA: Brandon Pirri, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Brian Campbell
PHI: Wayne Simmonds, Michael Raffl, Michael Del Zotto
Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks – 10:00 PM EDT
| Vancouver Canucks | Anaheim Ducks | ||||||||
 | Ryan Miller |  | Frederik Andersen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 48-29 | 51-24 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.88 | 2.68 | 19.30% | 85.70% | Team Stats | 2.78 | 2.70 | 15.70% | 81.00% |
These two Pacific Division rivals are no strangers and, with Anaheim winning three of the five very closely contested meetings last season, Vancouver will be looking to make an early season statement against the Ducks late this evening. The Canucks lost a heart breaker in overtime against Calgary on Saturday to split their season opening home-and-home series and will head to southern California is fairly heavy underdogs. Willie Desjardins’ decision to move Radim Vrbata off of the Sedin line and put him alongside the talented Sven Baertschi and Bo Horvat has finally given the Canucks a viable secondary scoring option, but its not a secret that the Sedin Brothers are still their most dangerous offensive weapons. The Canucks scored at a solid 19.3% clip on the power-play last season, and with Anaheim landing in the bottom half of the league with their penalty kill, there’s should be some scoring opportunities to be had. Alex Edler runs the point of their #1 power-play unit and is really the only fantasy option on the Vancouver blue-line that’s on my radar tonight.
There’s no denying the offensive upside possessed by this Ducks team, but Bruce Boudreau’s decision to spread his top scoring options across three different forward lines certainly didn’t pay dividends in the Ducks opener as they were blanked by the San Jose Sharks. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are elite offensive talents and fine options in almost any matchup, but their values are held back slightly as long as they’re separate from each other at even strength. While they are guaranteed to play alongside each other on the power-play, the Ducks owned an unsightly 15.7% power-play last season and Vancouver was the second best in the NHL on the penalty kill, so investing in their massive salaries looks a bit riskier than usual. The newly acquired Chris Stewart is slated to join Ryan Getzlaf on the #1 forward line and slide onto the wing of “what should be” a dangerous #1 power-play, making him a nice value option. On defense, both Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen are the two best puck moving defenseman and thus log big minutes with the man advantage. While neither is going to break any scoring records, they are both solid/safe cash game options on the blue-line.
Elite Plays
VAN: Daniel Sedin, Radim Vrbata
ANA: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry
Secondary Plays
VAN: Henrik Sedin, Bo Horvat, Brandon Sutter, Alexander Edler
ANA: Chris Stewart, Ryan Kesler, Rickard Rakell, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Frederik Andersen