The Relief Brief: Thursday, September 15th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-16 02:15:46

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Thursday night features an eight game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights.

1. Bullpen Highlights

Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched much better in the second half of the season, but he continues to struggle with controlling his pitch count. In 16 starts this season, E-Rod has reached six innings or more just seven times. While the Yankees do struggle against lefties, this could end up being a spot where we see three plus innings of work from the Boston ‘pen. The Red Sox relief unit had struggled in early August, but has since rallied for the sixth best SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days. Even if Rodriguez struggles tonight, don’t expect much damage to come against this ‘pen.

Blake Snell has really struggled over his past eight starts, and while he hasn’t imploded in any of those games, he hasn’t been able to keep men off base. Snell has seen a lot of longer innings lately, which has driven up his pitch count and forced him to early exits (just 32.2 innings pitched in his last eight starts combined). Expect to see a fair amount of the Tampa Bay bullpen here. For the season, the Rays have an average bullpen SIERA but have allowed the third most HR/9 of any bullpen in baseball, which could spell trouble against the all or nothing Orioles bats.

Edinson Volquez has exceeded six innings just once in his last ten outings, while allowing four or more earned runs in seven of those ten starts. The Royals asked a lot of Brian Flynn, Scott Alexander and Kevin McCarthy last night (24, 37, and 39 pitches respectively) and all will likely be unavailable tonight. Should Volquez continue to struggle here, it could leave the Royals’ bullpen without their usual long-relief options (though Chris Young could be an option as well). The Royals ‘pen continues to be better than average, though not elite.

Daniel Mengden now has 11 starts on the season and has average just a hair over five innings per start. The A’s bullpen is relatively well rested coming into tonight, and they have been getting stronger as the season has gone on. Over the last 30 days, the A’s bullpen has the eighth best bullpen SIERA in baseball and owns a very good 24.7% strikeout rate. While I expect Mengden to struggle on his way to a shorter outing tonight, I don’t want to mess with this bullpen right now, though the long relief role is usually susceptible with this unit.

Jimmy Nelson has not pitched beyond six innings in any of his last ten outings, and has pitched an even six innings just twice in those ten starts. Don’t expect Nelson to work deep into his outing tonight against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Brewers bullpen has not been worked very hard lately, but this is a unit that owns a 4.61 SIERA over the last 30 days (the worst in baseball over that span) and can be had on any given night, especially one in which they are expected to see heavy amounts of work against an elite lineup.

Archie Bradley has an interesting game log. He has made 22 starts on the season and has allowed at least one run in all of those starts and three or more earned runs in 14 of the 22. Bradley is averaging a disappointing five and a third innings per start, and owns a 5.10 ERA. All of that to say, expect Bradley to give up some runs on his way to a five to six inning performance tonight. The Arizona bullpen has been well documented in this article as being one of the bottom two units in baseball. That remains true tonight, and the Dodgers are in a prime spot to take advantage of this bad and fatigued bullpen.

Daniel Wright has made three big league starts this season, and is really only being asked to hit the five inning mark. The Angels will be happy if Wright can reach five innings tonight, as they have been one of the most used bullpens in baseball over the last week. In fourteen minor leagues starts this season, Wright reached six or more innings just four times. I say all of this to lead up to the notion that Wright is highly unlikely to pitch beyond five (six at the most) innings tonight against the Blue Jays. The Angels ‘pen is both tired and bad, and I expect some damage to be done against this unit tonight.

My Favorite Bullpens To Pick On

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Tampa Bay Rays

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Braves acquired former Arizona cast-off Josh Collmenter from the Cubs. Collmenter has been ineffective as a starter and as a reliever in the last two seasons.

The Giants activated Derek Law from the 15-day DL. There is a lot of intrigue here because the Giants are currently struggling to assign any one pitcher to closing duties. Santiago Casilla and Hunter Strickland have both struggled in that role. Law will at least provide another late inning option down the stretch.

3. Other Notes And Insights

The Blue Jays own the fourth best bullpen SIERA over the last 30 days, but have also allowed the second most HR/9 of any team in baseball (1.69 HR/9).

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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