The Relief Brief: Thursday, September 22nd

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-23 02:06:46

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Thursday night features a ten game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Chris Tillman hasn’t quite been the picture of consistency that the Orioles had hoped for this season, but in truth, he has been one of their more reliable starters. Tillman has reached six or more innings in 17 of 28 starts this season and has posted respectable peripheral stats as well. The big issue here is that the hard contact rate has been soaring for Tillman since early August. The O’s are desperate for a win, and their ‘pen is relatively fresh, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Tillman has a shorter leash than usual tonight, because the Orioles can’t afford to fall in a big hole early tonight. This ‘pen has been overrated all season long aside from two of their active relief arms.

Josh Collmenter has long been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on, but that may change a bit tonight. Collmenter has made one start in the last year plus, and it lasted just five innings. Collmenter faces the Marlins in Miami, which is a very favorable spot for him given the Marlins current form and the ballpark. However, we should still expect to see plenty of the Braves bullpen, and it is worth noting that Jim Johnson (closer) has worked hard for three consecutive days, and is highly unlikely to be available tonight. We should see other members of the ‘pen for Atlanta here, and they own a 4.22 SIERA over the last 30 days.

In his last ten outings, Jose Urena has exceeded six innings on just one occasion. Urena spent much of the season in relief, and has exceeded 100 pitches just twice all year. The Braves own a .348 team wOBA over the last two weeks, and have been scorching over the last month. While it may look like a cupcake matchup on the surface, the reality is much different for Urena. I expect to see at least three innings of bullpen work from the Marlins tonight, and they own a bottom third SIERA in 2016.

Jason Vargas has made seven starts across all levels this season, and has a long outing of 5.2 innings. In his lone major league start this year, Vargas lasted just three innings before departing against the White Sox. Tonight, he will face off against the Indians. The Royals bullpen owns a scuffling 4.38 SIERA over the last 30 days, and is all but certain to be in for a long night tonight. This spot has some appeal on this shorter slate.

Mike Clevinger has eight major league starts this season, and has not pitched more than 5.2 innings in any of those outings. Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen have all put in heavy amounts of work lately and all or some of those three may be unavailable for this one tonight. Clevinger is not a candidate to go deep into this ballgame, so we can expect some heavy lifting for the Indians ‘pen tonight. Once again, even shorthanded, this bullpen is not a unit that we are going to look to attack against. There are better options on this slate.

Ricky Nolasco has tossed six or more innings in nine of his last ten starts. Nolasco has not necessarily pitched well (27 earned runs) across those ten outings, but he has been able to chew through innings (66 innings). The Angels ‘pen is bad, and that may have something to do with Nolasco being left out on the hill regardless of execution. He’s stretched out to handle larger workloads and he will likely spare the bullpen from another long outing. Nolasco takes away from most of the appeal in attacking this ‘pen.

Ready for a crazy stat? Chase Anderson has reached six innings just twice across his last 16 starts and has done so only five times in 28 starts this season. Chase Anderson is the anti-workhorse starting pitcher (Anti-Verlander?). Anderson’s numbers are bad all the way around, and his incredible consistency in making short starting appearances means that the Brewers bullpen is certainly going to be in for some work this evening. For the season, the Brewers own the seventh worst bullpen SIERA In baseball.

Eight of “(player-popup)Tyler Chatwood”:/players/tyler-chatwood-11072’s last 12 outings have consisted of five innings pitched or less. Chatwood does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but is facing a lineup with quite a few bats that excel against that type of pitching (Seager, Reddick, Adrian, etc.). I don’t expect a long outing from Chatwood tonight, even with the friendlier pitching environment. The Rockies own a bottom third bullpen SIERA for the season and have allowed 1.29 HR/9 over the last 30 days. There could be some goodness to be had here.

Favorite bullpens to pick on today.

1. Colorado Rockies
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Miami Marlins

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Padres recalled lefty Buddy Baumann from AAA. Baumann will likely only be used in low leverage situations.

3. Other Notes And Insights

The San Francisco Giants have been limping there way through the stretch run, and now lead the major leagues with 29 blown saves in 2016, with eight of those (also most in MLB) coming in the last 30 days alone.

Follow me on Twitter @collinman005 for occasional humor and advice.

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