2017 MLB DFS Preview – National League Central
Hello RotoGrinders. Welcome to the NL Central article to help you get prepared for MLB DFS Opening Day, which is just around the corner.
I’m planning to do an article for each division. You can read the NL East article here. The goal of these articles is to help prepare you for MLB DFS in terms of what has happened since you last played in September. I will be focused on highlighting new acquisitions, expected opening day starters, and share any pertinent information I come across (ex: Player A plans to run more, Player B is coming into camp in the best shape ever, Player C started taking steroids this offseason, etc.).
You can find me on Twitter here. With that said, let’s dive in:
Chicago Cubs – 2016 Record: 103-58-1
On paper, the Cubs still boast a powerful roster and are favorites to repeat as World Series champions. Kris Bryant is a 25-year-old man-child, has an MVP under his belt, and boasts Zac Efron-like good looks (that has nothing to do with DFS, but just thought I’d throw that in). The Cubs did lose leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler, but they signed Jon Jay to a one-year deal to replace him in center field. I’m expecting Jay and Albert Almora to be in a timeshare.
Early indications are that Kyle Schwarber is healthy and will act as the Cubs’ lead-off hitter. Schwarber has a career .831 OPS in his brief time in the majors and isn’t exactly what you’d picture as a lead-off hitter, but if he can get on base consistently, it won’t matter with Bryant, Rizzo, and Zobrist behind him to drive him home.
Keep an eye out on Jason Heyward. He’s working on a new swing after hitting a dismal .230 last season. He’s not someone I would recommend for DFS but if he can somehow recapture some of that 27-homer magic from 2012, he might fly under the radar.
The Cubs lost Jason Hammel to the Royals but will look to Mike Montgomery and possibly Brett Anderson to fill that void. Joe Maddon has talked about them splitting the 5th starter role, maybe in an attempt to keep Anderson healthy by lessening his workload, but I would think that would stunt the growth of Montgomery. Not much needs to be said about the 4-headed monster of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, and John Lackey. I’d expect all of them to be consistent and solid yet again. The biggest change on the Cubs staff is at the closer position. The Cubs lost Aroldis Chapman to free agency, so they traded Jorge Soler Power for Wade Davis. Davis saved 27 games last year for the Royals and is a clear stud when he’s not dealing with forearm troubles. If Davis begins to fail, the Cubs could turn to ex-closers Hector Rondon or Koji Uehara. In other words, they have options.
St. Louis Cardinals – 2016 Record: 86-76
The Cardinals enter 2017 with familiar faces. Their biggest change was the addition of lead-off hitter Dexter Fowler, who they signed to a five-year deal. Fowler’s presence caused a positive ripple effect on the team. With Matt Holiday leaving for the Yankees, Fowler will man center field, shift Randal Grichuk to left field, and allow last year’s lead-off hitter Matt Carpenter to move closer to the heart of the order.
Speaking of Carpenter, he’s dealing with a sore back and is considering pulling out of the World Baseball Classic. His status for Opening Day isn’t in jeopardy but it’s something to monitor.
One piece of news – Carlos Martinez has been named the opening day starter and will now act as the team’s ace. Adam Wainwright has given up 13 runs in 10.2 innings this spring and there are genuine concerns here about the 35 year old pitcher.
Top prospect Alex Reyes was a spring training casualty and underwent Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss the entire 2017 season. The 5th starter battle will likely come down to Michael Wacha or Luke “Don’t Call Me Jered” Weaver. Weaver is dealing with some back spasms this spring training and despite striking out 45 batters in 36.1 innings last year, he had a 1.60 WHIP and gave up 7 home runs. Meanwhile, Wacha has pitched 5 innings this spring without giving up an earned run yet, so I’m listing him as the front runner.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 2016 Record: 78-83
The Pirates will look very similar to how they looked in 2016. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Well, let’s take a look at how they ranked in terms of team stats:
They were 13th in the majors in total runs scored. “Oh, that’s good!” you say.
Well, what if I also told you they were 12th in batting average? “Wow, good news Allan. Tell me more!”
Sure. Here’s one more stat – they were 26th in home runs (sad trombone).
When I look at the Pirates, I see a mixed bag. I see Gregory Polanco, who could go 20/20 for the first time in his career this year. I see Starling Marte, who could potentially eclipse 50 stolen bases this year after swiping 47 bases last year in only 129 games.
But then I see Andrew McCutchen, who batted .256 during the worst year of his career and is now being moved to right field. Does he bounce back in his prime age-30 year, or was last year the beginning signs of a declining player? (if I had to guess, I’d guess the former). I see Jung Ho Kang, a talented and powerful 3rd baseman who has some serious personal issues he needs to overcome. He has three DUIs since 2009 and as far as I’m concerned, he needs to get that aspect of his life together before he hurts himself or someone else. Lastly, I see a solid prospect in Josh Bell who is recovering from off-season knee surgery. Bell showed great plate-discipline by taking 21 walks compared to 19 strikeouts in his rookie season, but didn’t show much power. Is Bell a legit major-leaguer, or is he just John Jaso 2.0? (BTW – John Jaso 1.0 is his backup. Awkward…).
Overall, I see a team that has learned to generate runs to be a .500 ballclub, but aren’t very sexy from a DFS perspective. It would not surprise me if they were in the bottom 5-7 teams in home runs again this year.
As for the pitching, Gerrit Cole appears healthy. Ivan Nova had a revival in 2016 and was rewarded with a three-year extension. Tyler Glasnow and Chad Kuhl are two solid prospects who aren’t even 25 years old yet. There is definite value here for DFS in the right matchups.
Milwaukee Brewers – 2016 Record: 73-89
When I look at the Milwaukee Brewers projected depth chart, it reminds me of how I dress in the morning. I need a pair of socks to cover my feet, so I grab anything that fits in my drawer. My work requires a pair of pants, so I grab one from the closet. It’s raining outside so I’ll put on any rain jacket, regardless if it doesn’t fit well anymore or match my outfit. By the end, I’m fully clothed and somewhat presentable for my job, but it’s probably not the best look.
It feels like the Brewers are just filling in gaps where they need to. Oh, we lost Chris Carter. Let’s give Eric Thames a 3-year deal with $15 million in guaranteed money. Does it matter that he hasn’t played in the majors for the last several years? No, he hit 124 home runs in 388 games over in Korea, so that must mean something in the major leagues.
In all seriousness, the Brewers feel like a team that might be worth attacking in GPPs early in the season because they look so ugly on paper that nobody will be on them, but maybe they will surprise us. Travis Shaw was acquired for Tyler Thornburg. The Brewers swapped fellow catcher Martin Maldonado to the Angels for Jett Bandy. Neftali Feliz signed a 1-year deal to be the closer even though he’s been a set-up man for the past several years. There are some decent pieces here – former steroid user Ryan Braun is entering camp saying he feels good after hitting 30 home runs last year in only 135 games. Jonathan Villar stole a major league best 62 bases last year and reportedly passed on a $20 million dollar extension, which tells me he’s betting on himself to repeat that performance. Keon Broxton hit 9 homers and stole 23 bases in only half a season and may be the #2 hitter. I will probably roll out some Brewers stacks in the event things go right. But if things go south, it wouldn’t surprise me.
The pitching staff has some serious issues. Outside of Junior Guerra and Zach Davies, there are five pitchers fighting for three spots (Jimmy Nelson, Matt Garza, Chase Anderson, Wily Peralta, Tommy Milone). I’m not going to bother spending much time here as these are pitchers you’ll want to be targeting hitters against.
Cincinnati Reds – 2016 Record: 68-94
One day the Reds will be a good team. That day will not come in 2017. But there are some nice DFS pieces here.
Zack Cozart belted a career best 16 home runs last year in only 121 games. He’s in a contract year and makes for a decent target. Jose Peraza came out of nowhere and with Brandon Phillips gone, Peraza will open as the everyday 2nd baseman after hitting .324 and stealing 21 bases. Scott Schebler will be the starting right fielder but keep an eye out for Desmond Jennings who signed a minor league deal with the team. It’s been nearly 3-4 years since Jennings has been a reliable contributor at the major league level but he’s still only 30 years old and things could conceivably click for him in his prime.
I’ve listed Devin Mesoraco and Tucker Barnhart in a timeshare for catcher duties. Mesoraco is recovering from surgery and after hitting 25 home runs in 2014, he’s hit 0 since. That’s right, 0 home runs in 39 games between 2015-2016. I really want to believe in Mesoraco but until he shows me he can stay healthy and hit for consistent power, I’ll probably stay away for DFS.
As for the pitching, Anthony “Don’t Call Me DeSclaFeeny” DeSclafani is battling elbow issues and not expected to be ready for Opening Day. Brandon Finnegan will likely have the honors of taking the mound after a solid 10-11 season last year. The honors may have gone to Homer Bailey, but Homer Bailey is doing his normal Homer Bailey routine of being injured. Bailey underwent elbow surgery and is hoping to be back mid-season. Scott Feldman was brought in on a one-year deal to help fill the void left by Bailey. Feldman acted as a reliever last year but should have a solid chance of making the rotation.
In terms of closing duties, Raisel Iglesias is the favorite but the Reds also have Drew Storen and Tony Cingrani (remember when Tony Cingrani at closer was actually a thing last year?).
Thanks for reading!