MLB GPP Plays: Friday, June 17th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Matt Harvey, New York Mets – Harvey has looked terrific in his last three starts, tossing 20 innings while allowing just two earned runs and striking out 17 batters. Even more encouraging is the fact that he only walked three batters and did not give up a single home run during this span. The matchup for Harvey is excellent as well, as the Atlanta Braves are one of the weakest offenses in Major League Baseball. Is the Dark Knight all the way back? That I do not know, but I do know I will have plenty of exposure to him in tournaments tonight.
Joe Ross, Washington Nationals – With a moderate price across the industry and the best matchup on the night, Ross is a great target in GPPs. Ross may not be an elite pitcher, but he has been very effective so far in his career, thanks to both a solid strikeout rate and an excellent groundball rate. The San Diego Padres own the worst offense in Major League Baseball versus right-handed pitching, sitting dead last in team batting average, wOBA and wRC+. The Padres are also a very undisciplined team, toting the league’s second-worst walk rate (6.2%) to go along with baseball’s fourth-highest strikeout rate (24.1%). Ross has dominated righties in his career (.180 BAA, .224 wOBA), which is very important in this matchup, considering the San Diego Padres are predominately right-handed. Look for Ross to throw a gem this evening.
Lance McCullers, Houston Astros – McCullers was a huge disappointment in his last start against the Tampa Bay Rays, but I am going back to the well again tonight. The biggest concern with rostering McCullers is his ridiculous walk rate (6.15 BB/9). However, there is a less of a concern with the Cincinnati Reds in town. The Reds are a very undisciplined team, sporting the league’s fourth-worst walk rate (6.7%) and the seventh-worst strikeout rate (23%). Combine that with McCullers’ 11.9 K/9 rate and you can see why I am excited about the Houston Astros’ righty in this matchup. I should also note that McCullers has been lights-out when pitching at Minute Maid Park this season (2.50 ERA, .206 BAA with 26 Ks in 18 IP). There is some risk with McCullers tonight, but he also has double-digit K upside, making him an excellent play in GPPs.
Other Pitchers to Target – Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Fulmer, Jon Gray, Matt Shoemaker, Julio Urias, Robbie Ray
CATCHER
Welington Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks – You could easily target hitters form both sides of the plate against Philadelphia Phillies’ southpaw Adam Morgan (6.33 ERA, 1.68 HR/9 rate), but it is the righties we should be focusing on. Morgan has been shelled by right-handed batters in 2016 (.361 wOBA, 38.3% hard-hit rate) and I think we see more of the same tonight. The “Beef” Welington is best unleashed against left-handed pitching (.365 BA, .474 wOBA) and I love his potential in this matchup.
Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers – Despite the recent success from the Los Angeles Dodgers’ future star, Julio Urias is still getting roughed up by hitters from the right side of the plate (.403 wOBA and a 41.2% hard-hit rate). Sure it’s a small sample size, but it still tells us something. Lucroy has always hit left-handed pitching well and we should get him at a very low ownership this evening.
Other Catchers to Target – Evan Gattis, Victor Martinez (where eligible) Chris Iannetta, Wilson Ramos, Brian McCann, Cameron Rupp
FIRST BASE
Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks – Paul Goldschmidt is a notorious lefty killer and he should be able to have his way with a struggling Adam Morgan tonight. I spoke earlier about his troubles with righties and we should also note that he has not fared well pitching at home this season (7.09 ERA, .306 BAA). Goldschmidt is not only my top first baseman, he is my top player period. Look for Goldy to take Morgan deep in this one.
Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays – Edwin Encarnacion is absolutely smoking hot these days. The Toronto Blue Jays slugger has 11 hits in his last six games, including three doubles and five home runs. With a tasty matchup versus Mike Wright in Camden Yards tonight, there is no need to fade him. Encarnacion is a streaky hitter and when he is hot, I suggest you ride him.
Other First Basemen to Target – David Ortiz, Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Albert Pujols, Tommy Joseph, Dae-Ho Lee
SECOND BASE
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros – With seven multi-hit efforts in his last 10 contests, it is safe to say Altuve is locked in at the dish. Throw in a matchup versus a very hittable lefty and you can see why I have him listed here. Altuve feasts on left-handed pitching (.379 BA, .458 wOBA) and he should roll out another multi-hit game tonight.
Starlin Castro, New York Yankees – Pat Dean has been consistently mediocre so far in his brief Major League tenure. The 27-year-old southpaw has done a solid job versus lefties, but righties have blasted him (.362 wOBA with a 34.8% hard-hit rate and a 1.53 HR/9 rate). Castro should hit near the top of the order tonight and he has multi-hit/run upside in this plus matchup.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Neil Walker, Dustin Pedroia, Jean Segura, Chase Utley
THIRD BASE
Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies – Some will want to roster Robbie Ray this evening, and I get it, he certainly has strikeout upside and the Philadelphia Phillies are far from an offensive juggernaut. However, I prefer to go after him with right-handed batters. Hitters from the right side of the plate continue to tag Ray (.374 wOBA, 40.4% hard-hit rate) and I think the Phillies righties have some sneaky upside. Walks (4.17 BB/9) and home runs (1.30 HR/9 rate) have also been major issues for Ray this season and I expect Franco to hit him hard tonight.
Jefry Marte, Los Angeles Angels – Kendall Graveman has been hit hard this season (5.28 ERA, .309 BAA) and he is certainly worth picking on, even in this spacious ballpark. The Oakland A’s right-hander has allowed a .391 wOBA to right-handed batters this season, and despite being an extreme groundball pitcher, he has already allowed 11 home runs on the year. Marte is hitting the ball well these days and he is doing some serious damage against right-handed pitching (.368 BA, .489 wOBA).
Other Third Basemen to Target – Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Alex Rodriguez, Anthony Rendon, Travis Shaw
SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros – John Lamb does not generate many strikeouts (22 Ks in 42 IP), which means he allows a lot of contact and hard contact at that. Right-handed batters have had plenty of success against Lamb this season with a .369 wOBA and a 38.3% hard-hit rate. Correa has jack-and-a-bag upside in this matchup.
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers – Zach Davies has looked very good recently, but we can still attack him with left-handed hitters. Even with his success of late, the Milwaukee Brewers’ right-hander is still getting abused by lefties (.340 wOBA and a 37.2% hard-hit rate). Seager has had some monster games this season and we could see another one from him in this game. If you are looking for a high upside pivot from Correa, Seager is your guy.
Other Shortstops to Target – Xander Bogaerts, Jonathan Villar, Francisco Lindor, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ketel Marte
OUTFIELDERS
Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle Mariners – With a southpaw opposing them, both Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez are at the top of my outfield list this evening. Both Cruz (.417 wOBA) and Gutierrez (.342 wOBA) crush southpaws and I love their potential in this hitter’s paradise known as Fenway Park.
Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto, New York Mets – Jon Gant has been decent in the Minor Leagues and he projects as a mid to back-end starter in the Big Leagues. In other words, he will be slightly above average at best. The Mets are a tough opponent for right-handed pitchers and I think they give him a rude welcoming tonight. Both Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto have big upside in this prime matchup.
Michael Saunders, Toronto Blue Jays – Saunders is another Blue Jays hitter that is seeing the ball well of late. In his last 10 games, Saunders has produced 13 hits, including three doubles and three home runs. Mike Wright has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters this season (LHB .343 BA, .416 wOBA) and I see another big game in Saunders future.
Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds – Lance McCullers is not normally a pitcher I want to target with hitters, but righties have had some success against him this season (.352 wOBA) and the ballpark is ideal for Duvall’s home run upside (16 HRs, .367 wOBA VS RHP). Duvall’s power is legit and he will be highly under-owned in large field tournaments.
Other Outfielders to Target – Mike Trout, George Springer, Mookie Betts, Carlos Beltran, Rajai Davis, Jayson Werth, Joc Pederson, Rickie Weeks Jr.