MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, May 3rd
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Matt Harvey, New York Mets – Harvey has been a tough pitcher to trust this season, but he has looked much better of late. His velocity has improved, averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball in his last start, and he has 12 strikeouts in his last 11 innings pitched. The Atlanta Braves are a terrible offense and after seeing Bartolo Colon dominate them last night, we should not be afraid to roll out Harvey in tournaments.
Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels – The Milwaukee Brewers have been hot of late, but they remain a team that struggles versus right-handed pitching, striking out over 25% of the time. Despite their big games against Jered Weaver and Tom Koehler, this is still a team we want to target with right-handed pitchers. Nick Tropeano has been quite good for the Los Angeles Angels this season (posting a 2.11 ERA and 20 strikeouts in just over 21 IP), and he has kept right-handed batters in check throughout his brief career at the Major League level. I can see Tropeano going five-plus innings tonight with a strikeout per inning and coming away with the win. At his price across the industry, that will work just fine in GPPs.
Other Pitchers to Target – Michael Wacha, Aaron Nola, Collin McHugh, Matt Moore
CATCHER
Welington Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks – Castillo has been a very good hitter in his career against left-handed pitching (.371 wOBA), and Justin Nicolino just happens to be a very hittable lefty. The ballpark may scare some off, leaving Beef Welington under-owned in tournament play.
Russell Martin, Toronto Blue Jays – Martin and the Toronto Blue Jays face lefty Martin Perez tonight who is very contact oriented. The Texas Rangers southpaw has actually walked more batters than he has whiffed this season, and he has allowed a .365 wOBA to right-handed batters. Despite his slump, Martin makes a great value play at catcher this evening.
Other Catchers to Target – Brian McCann, Jonathan Lucroy, Stephen Vogt, Matt Wieters, Jason Castro
FIRST BASE
Lucas Duda, New York Mets – Matt Wisler has a great arm, but left-handed batters remain his kryptonite. The 23-year-old righty has allowed a .310 BA and a .408 wOBA to lefties so far in his career. Duda mashes right-handed pitching (career .364 wOBA) and he has multi-homer upside in this matchup.
Brandon Moss, St. Louis Cardinals – Aaron Nola has been outstanding this year and I doubt the St. Louis Cardinals bats will be popular tonight. That being said, Nola is still susceptible to lefties and Moss has massive upside any time he is facing a righty. If you are looking for an inexpensive, high upside play who will be low owned, Moss is your man tonight.
Other First Basemen to Target – Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Chris Davis, Brandon Belt, Mark Teixeira
SECOND BASE
Neil Walker, New York Mets – Walker is off to a huge start for the New York Mets, and despite this he never seems to be more than 15% owned in large field tournaments. Perhaps it is the price tag, or because he bats lower in the order, regardless, we should be taking advantage of his low ownership. Walker is a much better hitter from the left side of the plate and he should have a big night against Matt Wisler.
Logan Forsythe, Tampa Bay Rays – When you think of lefty killers, I doubt many picture Logan Forsythe. However, since the beginning of the 2015 season, Forsythe has demolished southpaws (.405 wOBA in 2015 and a .593 wOBA so far in 2016). Do not be afraid of Scott Kazmir, and get some exposure to Forsythe this evening.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, Brian Dozier
THIRD BASE
Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays – If I am paying up for any one player tonight, it will be the reigning MVP. Josh Donaldson is an absolute beast against left-handed pitching and Martin Perez is very hittable. As a bonus, Josh has hit Perez very well in a small sample size (5-13, with three walks and four extra base hits).
Matt Duffy, San Francisco Giants – Jon Moscot probably will not last long in this game, and once the San Francisco Giants knock him out of the game, they can pick on the worst bullpen in Major League Baseball. Likely batting out of the two-hole, Duffy has multi-hit/run upside in this plus matchup.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Todd Frazier, Matt Carpenter, Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez
SHORTSTOP
Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants – Jon Moscot was an average pitcher in the Minor Leagues and he has not looked very good at the Major League level. It is a very small sample size (15.2 IP), but like Martin Perez, Moscot has more walks than strikeouts this year. Brandon Crawford has developed into a very good hitter against right-handed pitching (.378 wOBA) and he should fly under the radar in GPPs tonight.
Let us discuss a few more shortstops before moving on to the outfield. Jean Segura has a whopping 17 hits in his last 10 contests and he has multi-hit/run/SB upside against Justin Nicolino. The New York Mets’ left-handed hitters should have a field day against Matt Wisler and we can add Asdrubal Cabrera and his inexpensive salary to the list. Jonathan Villar has been very productive recently and like Jean Segura above, he also has multi-hit/run/SB upside again tonight.
Other Shortstops to Target – Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts
OUTFIELDERS
Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson, New York Mets – By now you know Matt Wisler struggles versus lefties (career .364 wOBA VS RHP) and that means both Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson have huge potential in this prime matchup.
San Francisco Giants Outfield – I plan to stack Giants hitters against Jon Moscot and that awful Cincinnati Reds bullpen tonight. Denard Span tends to get ignored because he lacks home run upside, but I will take a multi-hit/run game. Hunter Pence is one of few Giants with double-dong potential. With Angel Pagan nursing a hamstring injury, we could see some value in the outfield as well, ALL the Giants are in play.
Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins – Ozuna has started to heat up offensively with hits in eight of his last 10 games, including homers in back-to-back contests. Patrick Corbin has not looked good recently and righties continue to abuse him (.381 wOBA). Ozuna is best unleashed when facing a left-handed pitcher and I would not be surprised to see him go deep tonight for the third consecutive game.
Other Outfielders to Target – Jose Bautista, Yoenis Cespedes, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dexter Fowler, Mitch Moreland, Kole Calhoun, Billy Hamilton, Kirk Nieuwenhuis