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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-10 11:52:22

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Texas at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Texas San Diego
texasmlb A.J. Griffin sandiegomlb Jered Weaver
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX-128 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.400 0.375 44.2% 9.2% 20.3% 27.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.352 0.342 29.0% 7.1% 12.8% 35.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.332 34.3% 8.4% 22.8% 30.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.378 0.362 38.9% 5.6% 13.4% 27.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

A.J. Griffin
a-j-griffin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 23 4.63 5.07 21.0% 9.0% 29.1% 38.1% 18.1%
2017 3 3.68 4.11 26.7% 6.7% 25.6% 48.7% 20.5%

We have a single early game on the schedule today, so if you are only playing in the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the next game. Griffin will be on the mound for the Rangers today, as they take on the Padres in Petco Park. Griffin boasts a 27% strikeout rate this season, but has allowed a massive 49% hard contact rate. Hitters are either striking out or making great contact, which makes Griffin more of a deep tournament play.

Quick Breakdown: The Padres strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching, but it’s hard to justify playing Griffin in a full 15 game slate.

Jered Weaver
jered-weaver-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 5.44 5.06 13.4% 6.7% 28.8% 34.7% 18.6%
2017 6 4.91 5.51 11.4% 4.3% 43.1% 33.3% 18.8%

Weaver is my favorite pitcher in baseball to pick on. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. He also has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher in baseball. The only surprise in his numbers is that his ERA isn’t higher than 5.51. He is an easy fade against a Rangers’ offense that will benefit from facing a low strikeout pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: If the site you are playing on awards fantasy points for home runs allowed, load up on Weaver shares.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are the only reason I would consider playing in the all-day or early slates across the industry. I absolutely love targeting hitters against Jered Weaver, who has allowed a .342+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Weaver also strikes out batters at a 13% clip, which gives a big boost to high strikeout bats like Carlos Gomez, Joey Gallo, and Mike Napoli. A Rangers’ stack is viable here, or you can pick your spots to try to capture the home run upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.282 0.248 0.115 19.6% 8.3% 28.3% 53.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,400
2 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.332 0.299 0.249 33.9% 2.8% 21.7% 39.1% 2B $3,100 2B $4,200
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.338 0.335 0.188 29.4% 7.7% 18.2% 44.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,600
4 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.339 0.326 0.147 27.3% 7.7% 13.4% 46.6% SS $2,900 SS $3,700
5 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.315 0.297 0.183 32.6% 9.0% 28.3% 41.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,800
6 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.331 0.318 0.310 52.1% 12.2% 45.2% 22.9% 3B $3,800 3B $3,700
7 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.326 0.333 0.235 34.9% 9.5% 29.9% 36.4% 1B $3,000 1B $3,800
8 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.352 0.339 0.180 32.4% 7.8% 15.3% 40.4% C $2,800 C $3,500
9 A.J. Griffin RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $8,100 P $8,000

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo

Secondary Plays – Nomar Mazara, Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego

A.J. Griffin is a pitcher that can be dominant at times, but he can also get blown up. That’s what happens when you have a high strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. He has really struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a .375 xwOBA with a 44% hard contact rate. His numbers against righties are better, but he does have a 40 point differential between his wOBA and xwOBA allowed, so some regression could be coming. Ryan Schimpf was mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down and we are going right back to the well today. He has a .313 ISO and a 35% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.307 0.276 0.147 23.9% 4.9% 20.3% 50.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,400
2 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.247 0.254 0.066 18.8% 4.6% 21.5% 55.3% OF $2,400 3B/OF $3,200
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.350 0.322 0.218 34.0% 8.5% 24.1% 44.4% 1B $4,000 1B $4,400
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.350 0.321 0.179 32.8% 7.0% 13.5% 42.2% 2B $3,300 2B $3,500
5 Ryan Schimpf LEFT 0.369 0.349 0.313 35.3% 15.3% 29.8% 19.0% 2B $3,300 3B $3,600
6 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.284 0.266 0.222 32.4% 0.9% 33.9% 39.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,300
7 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.241 0.277 0.203 30.4% 4.5% 29.5% 41.8% C $2,500 C $2,700
8 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.285 0.269 0.100 21.2% 8.2% 13.8% 51.6% SS $2,700 SS $2,600
9 Jered Weaver RIGHT 0.000 0.038 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 53.8% 80.0% P $5,500 P $5,800

Elite Plays – Ryan Schimpf

Secondary Plays – Cory Spangenberg, Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Seattle Philadelphia
seattlemlb Ariel Miranda philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-100 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.321 32.1% 9.7% 16.7% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.311 30.9% 7.2% 18.3% 37.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.316 35.4% 6.7% 20.7% 29.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.264 0.278 30.2% 3.9% 23.7% 43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ariel Miranda
ariel-miranda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 3.88 19.0% 7.8% 31.2% 37.1% 17.7%
2017 5 3.93 3.81 21.8% 6.4% 40.8% 29.5% 23.1%

Miranda gets to pitch in a National League ballpark tonight, but this isn’t one that is going to help his home run blues. He has allowed 18 home runs in his first 16 major league starts and Citizens Bank Park is one of the smallest ballparks in baseball. There are some encouraging signs for Miranda (22% strikeout rate with a 23% soft contact rate), but the Phillies are actually a decent offense against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: We can afford to be picky in a 15 game slate. For that reason, I will have zero shares of Miranda in a home run-friendly ballpark.

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.05 3.65 20.6% 5.2% 40.7% 30.8% 20.0%
2017 6 4.26 4.00 21.7% 8.6% 37.5% 29.3% 13.2%

Eickhoff is one of those pitchers that doesn’t do any one thing particularly well, but he is solid all around. If you look at his pitching table above, you will see that every box except one is either yellow or green, which means most of his statistics are hovering around the major league average. I’m a fan of Eickhoff’s price point, but the Mariners hit right-handed pitching well, they take a lot of walks, and they have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: The time to play Eickhoff is coming, it’s just not tonight against the Mariners.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners will lose the DH tonight playing in Philadelphia, which means one less hitter in their lineup. It will be hard to sit Nelson Cruz, so it will be interesting to see who the odd man out ends up being. Seattle sees a favorable ballpark shift playing in Citizens Bank Park and their matchup against Jerad Eickhoff is somewhat exploitable. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters, which brings Ben Gamel, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager into play. I will also be taking a long look at Nelson Cruz in a home run-friendly ballpark, even though Eickhoff has been tough on righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.389 0.345 0.186 29.6% 5.1% 13.0% 52.2% SS $4,100 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
2 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.303 0.297 0.111 32.1% 11.6% 26.7% 34.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.394 0.397 0.267 38.1% 8.4% 12.6% 43.5% 2B $4,000 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.375 0.380 0.234 35.1% 8.8% 24.3% 43.5% OF $4,500 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.380 0.407 0.219 39.7% 12.2% 14.3% 34.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
6 Taylor Motter RIGHT 0.292 0.306 0.226 36.5% 10.8% 23.8% 37.6% OF $3,100 1B/SS $3,300 SS $6,600
7 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.316 0.295 0.078 14.8% 11.0% 17.6% 49.2% OF $2,900 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
8 Carlos Ruiz RIGHT 0.293 0.330 0.066 27.2% 10.4% 15.6% 46.8% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,200
9 Ariel Miranda LEFT P $7,900 P $6,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano

Secondary Plays – Ben Gamel, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies are one of the more intriguing offenses in the slate. On paper, a matchup against Ariel Miranda doesn’t look like anything special, but he has allowed 18 home runs in 16 major league starts and the Phillies are playing at home. Miranda has allowed a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters and his ground ball rate drops over 20% when facing a righty compared to when he faces a lefty. Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, and Cameron Rupp are all viable one-off targets and a Phillies’ stack isn’t the craziest idea I’ve ever heard.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.348 0.287 0.098 23.4% 6.9% 20.2% 60.5% 2B $3,500 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.388 0.343 0.233 34.8% 12.9% 20.0% 45.7% OF $3,700 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.294 0.285 0.070 22.5% 9.8% 22.3% 60.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.350 0.359 0.224 37.9% 7.1% 17.3% 46.0% 3B $3,400 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.366 0.306 0.254 29.8% 7.2% 28.8% 48.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
6 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.345 0.355 0.257 34.5% 9.4% 22.0% 33.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.236 0.266 0.114 25.5% 2.2% 18.6% 38.6% SS $3,100 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.409 0.319 0.297 39.7% 7.1% 28.6% 49.2% C $2,900 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT 0.049 0.084 0.000 9.1% 0.0% 42.1% 50.0% P $7,300 P $7,400 P $14,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Washington Baltimore
washingtonmlb Max Scherzer baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-140 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 0.297 29.0% 9.0% 24.9% 31.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.380 0.317 31.3% 12.4% 22.0% 43.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.209 0.223 28.0% 3.3% 38.5% 34.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.330 31.3% 11.5% 16.6% 51.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $11,800 Salary: $22,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 5 3.18 2.94 30.3% 6.8% 31.3% 18.3% 22.0%

We have some tough decisions to make at pitcher tonight for two reasons. First, if we pay up for someone like Scherzer, we are basically limiting our exposure to the game in Coors Field. The other reason is that the four most expensive pitchers in the slate are all playing on the road, which obvious isn’t ideal for a pitcher. Scherzer deserves to be the clear ace in the slate, as he boasts a 3.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. His numbers are nearly identical to a season ago, although he is allowing even less hard contact. The Orioles are very good against right-handed pitching, but they can also strikeout at a fairly high rate. Scherzer has by far the most upside of any pitcher in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: If the weather holds up in Coors Field, I may be looking to pay down at pitcher tonight. I love Scherzer here, but the opportunity cost of rostering him may be too high.

Ubaldo Jimenez
ubaldo-jimenez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 5 5.83 6.58 15.0% 15.0% 43.9% 33.3% 19.1%

Jimenez makes my top five list of favorite pitchers to pick on. The way he is trending, he could crack the top two or three here shortly. In five starts this season, he has as many walks as strikeouts and he has allowed a 33% hard contact rate. He also is one of the worst in baseball at holding runners. He currently allows 0.19 stolen bases per inning pitched, which is easily the highest mark of any pitcher on the mound tonight.

Quick Breakdown: The Nationals’ offense was quiet last night, but should be able to breakout in a matchup against Jimenez.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

I always find little nuggets of information as I go through each game in the Grind Down, but as of now (three games in), the Nationals are my favorite offense outside of Coors Field. They see a ballpark bump playing in Camden Yards, they get to utilize the DH in an American League ballpark, and they are facing Ubaldo Jimenez. Since the start of last season, Jimenez has allowed a .317+ xwOBA with a walk rate over 11% to both left and right-handed hitters. He is also one of the easiest pitchers in baseball to steal bases against.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.396 0.336 0.245 33.7% 5.0% 19.2% 42.9% SS $3,800 SS $5,200 IF/OF $10,200
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.307 0.316 0.142 32.7% 11.0% 24.7% 41.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.377 0.394 0.230 35.6% 19.2% 15.6% 39.4% OF $5,000 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.329 0.336 0.198 36.2% 5.3% 23.7% 44.8% 1B $4,500 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.417 0.399 0.249 38.8% 6.3% 9.2% 34.9% 2B $4,200 2B $5,000 2B $9,900
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.339 0.344 0.181 35.0% 8.9% 18.5% 37.5% 3B $3,400 3B $4,600 3B $9,000
7 Adam Lind LEFT 0.315 0.352 0.209 38.3% 6.5% 18.6% 43.5% 1B $3,000 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.315 0.322 0.176 32.9% 7.2% 17.8% 37.3% C $2,800 C $3,800 C $7,600
9 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.253 0.266 0.103 30.7% 6.0% 31.2% 44.3% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,100

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Could the Orioles hit a few home runs off of Max Scherzer tonight? Sure. Is it likely? Absolutely not. Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball and he has a massive 38% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. The Orioles are a complete fade for me, but if I had to pick one batter to use here, it would be Seth Smith, who bats from the left side and has a strikeout rate below 20% against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.347 0.380 0.178 33.7% 11.3% 19.8% 47.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.339 0.344 0.188 32.6% 5.6% 15.9% 43.8% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.353 0.366 0.245 35.8% 7.0% 18.6% 36.9% 3B $3,500 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.351 0.359 0.256 41.6% 14.3% 33.8% 37.5% 1B $2,900 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.374 0.381 0.272 37.4% 7.8% 24.1% 39.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.340 0.320 0.203 29.5% 2.7% 19.4% 43.1% 2B $3,000 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
7 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.354 0.345 0.121 29.9% 9.7% 15.4% 52.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.283 0.285 0.114 30.4% 4.3% 16.6% 43.3% SS $2,200 SS $2,900 SS $5,700
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.217 0.249 0.038 21.7% 4.3% 19.4% 44.2% C $2,100 C $2,400 C $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Cleveland Toronto
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco torontomlb Mike Bolsinger
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-152 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.312 37.9% 7.1% 24.7% 43.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.407 0.395 36.7% 10.9% 21.7% 34.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.273 31.9% 4.4% 25.6% 51.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.371 0.394 44.6% 5.3% 19.7% 33.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $10,600 Salary: $20,700
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 6 3.24 2.18 25.8% 5.3% 45.5% 27.2% 18.5%

Carrasco has an above-average strikeout rate and limits hard contact against him, which are two stats that I like to see from my starting pitcher. The Rogers Centre isn’t the favorite place for most pitchers, but this Blue Jays’ offense is short-handed and currently ranked 27th in team wOBA and 23rd in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. As of yesterday morning, it sounded like Toronto was going to get Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki back, but it sounds like they will both be out through the weekend. Carrasco is a sizable favorite and he has a good track record on the road.

Quick Breakdown: I wish Carrasco was a thousand dollars cheaper tonight. He is still in play in all formats, but we aren’t getting a big discount off of Scherzer.

Mike Bolsinger
michael-bolsinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: Salary: Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank: 28 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 4.34 6.83 20.5% 7.4% 33.7% 41.9% 17.4%

Bolsinger is making his first start of the season and his seventh in the last two years. He owns a career 4.61 ERA with a strikeout rate of 20.6%. He will have his hands full tonight with an Indians’ offense that hits right-handed pitching well, draws a lot of walks, and has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. There is more risk than potential reward with Bolsinger tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Even if you wanted to play Bolsinger (which shouldn’t be the case), he isn’t available on FanDuel or DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Even though the Indians are playing in a good hitter’s park and have an exploitable matchup in Mike Bolsinger, they could get overlooked in a 15 game slate that features a game in Coors Field. Their implied run total isn’t high enough to garner high ownership, which makes them an intriguing stack in tournaments. In his career, Mike Bolsinger has allowed a .368 wOBA to left-handed hitters and judging by his six starts a year ago, he wasn’t much better against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.382 0.408 0.270 38.1% 15.5% 15.8% 36.5% 1B $3,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.360 0.354 0.175 27.9% 9.4% 12.2% 47.7% SS $4,200 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
3 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.348 0.348 0.191 38.8% 9.7% 19.9% 36.9% 2B $2,700 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.368 0.385 0.263 38.4% 10.8% 21.1% 37.5% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.366 0.329 0.168 25.3% 8.1% 9.8% 38.3% 3B $3,800 2B/3B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.333 0.304 0.166 27.6% 5.0% 16.8% 35.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
7 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.268 0.295 0.026 50.0% 7.1% 21.4% 60.0% 3B $2,400 3B $2,500 3B $4,800
8 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.306 0.285 0.127 33.3% 7.2% 24.3% 45.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
9 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.199 0.255 0.138 29.5% 3.8% 25.2% 39.8% C $2,600 C $2,700 C $5,200

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis (FD), Edwin Encarnacion (DK)

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis (DK), Edwin Encarnacion (FD), Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays have struggled against right-handed pitching this season and draw one of the worst matchups in the slate. Carlos Carrasco has an above-average strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA in the last two seasons. If you have read the Grind Down in the past, then you know I have an affinity for Kendrys Morales, who has the largest difference between his wOBA and xwOBA against right-handed pitching of any hitter. He is always on my radar as a one-off target, but that’s about it from the Blue Jays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.302 0.288 0.118 26.5% 5.0% 15.2% 48.6% OF $3,400 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.344 0.357 0.198 38.9% 17.0% 23.0% 36.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
3 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.313 0.397 0.195 42.6% 8.4% 19.8% 48.2% 1B $2,800 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.307 0.330 0.181 42.0% 10.5% 35.2% 27.6% 1B $2,700 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
5 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.335 0.343 0.158 30.2% 9.2% 17.6% 46.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 1B $6,400
6 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.322 0.308 0.156 30.3% 5.5% 19.7% 46.8% 2B $2,000 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
7 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.284 0.274 0.102 25.6% 6.4% 16.7% 49.2% SS $2,200 2B/3B $2,300 2B $4,400
8 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.247 0.264 0.148 30.3% 6.5% 22.8% 50.0% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,100 2B $4,200
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.230 0.233 0.095 31.0% 4.9% 25.5% 53.6% C $2,000 C $2,200 C $4,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales

Stackability – RED

San Francisco at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

San Francisco NY Mets
sanfranciscomlb Jeff Samardzija nymetsmlb Zack Wheeler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-112 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.333 29.9% 7.1% 20.4% 41.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.330 45.2% 9.6% 28.9% 38.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.266 0.288 31.9% 5.9% 22.7% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.235 0.270 15.9% 8.5% 17.0% 59.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Samardzija
jeff-samardzija-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,300
Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.13 3.81 20.1% 6.5% 46.5% 31.5% 18.1%
2017 6 3.09 5.03 28.6% 6.2% 41.0% 27.5% 27.5%

By most accounts, Samardijza has been a better pitcher than he was last season. He owns a 3.09 SIERA with a 29% strikeout rate and a 27% hard contact rate. However, a 20% HR/FB rate has led to a 5.03 ERA. To put that into perspective, the league average HR/FB rate is right around 10% and his career average is 11%. He should certainly see some positive regression when it comes to home runs allowed, but this Mets’ offense is scary against right-handed pitching. They will likely throw five or six lefties at Samardzija, which has been his biggest weakness in the last few years.

Quick Breakdown: Samardzija is a little too expensive for a matchup against the Mets on the road. If this game was in San Francisco, it would be a different story.

Zack Wheeler
zack-wheeler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 3.94 4.78 22.5% 9.0% 50.7% 28.0% 22.7%

Wheeler is better than his 4.78 ERA suggests. He has an above-average strikeout rate, he induces a lot of ground balls, and he limits the hard contact against him. Better yet, his price is reasonable on FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft. Wheeler has thrown at least 96 pitches in three straight outings and draws a matchup that should suit his strengths. The Giants don’t have many left-handed hitters in their lineup and Brandon Belt is really the only one that an opposing pitcher would be nervous to face. The Giants are generally known as a team that takes a lot of walks and strikes out at a low rate, but the bottom of their lineup is awfully weak right now.

Quick Breakdown: Cheap pitchers are more volatile, but allow you to spend up on Coors Field. Wheeler is one of the best values in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The book on Zack Wheeler is pretty simple – he struggles against left-handed hitters and is very good against right-handed hitters. The Giants aren’t currently equipped with the right weapons to face Wheeler, but they do have Brandon Belt, who owns a .388 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. I will have more Wheeler than Belt tonight, but plan to have some exposure to both.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Panik LEFT 0.317 0.340 0.160 26.2% 10.0% 7.6% 45.3% 2B $2,900 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
2 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.372 0.388 0.205 38.2% 17.1% 23.0% 26.2% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
3 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.334 0.322 0.114 28.2% 9.1% 21.3% 58.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.329 0.361 0.124 34.1% 8.3% 11.3% 50.9% C $3,500 1B/C $3,900 C $7,600
5 Conor Gillaspie LEFT 0.300 0.330 0.159 31.4% 6.8% 14.2% 39.0% 3B $2,100 1B/3B $2,400 3B $4,800
6 Christian Arroyo RIGHT 0.276 0.319 0.292 29.4% 4.0% 28.0% 52.9% 3B $2,500 3B/SS $3,100 SS $6,000
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.322 0.291 0.122 26.2% 4.8% 14.3% 51.9% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,500 3B $6,900
8 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.263 0.250 0.127 25.6% 3.4% 27.6% 52.6% OF $2,800 OF $2,700 CF $5,400
9 Jeff Samardzija RIGHT 0.166 0.172 0.083 27.6% 1.9% 42.3% 44.0% P $8,700 P $9,400 P $18,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

There are some encouraging signs for Jeff Samardzija, but he has always struggled with left-handed hitters. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .333 xwOBA against lefties with a lower strikeout rate and ground ball than when he faces a right-handed hitter. Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce have both been mashing right-handed pitching this season and both own a 42% hard contact rate. They are no longer dirt cheap on DraftKings, but they are still viable one-off targets in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.363 0.363 0.242 41.5% 11.8% 23.6% 37.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
2 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.409 0.322 0.209 29.8% 4.8% 8.8% 41.7% 1B $2,700 1B/3B $2,700 3B $5,200
3 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.380 0.374 0.300 41.9% 9.1% 19.8% 35.4% OF $4,000 1B/OF $4,400 RF $8,700
4 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.316 0.346 0.156 34.0% 9.5% 19.1% 37.5% 2B $3,200 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
5 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.329 0.332 0.223 35.9% 12.7% 19.4% 34.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
6 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.280 0.260 0.132 25.3% 7.2% 17.8% 36.4% 3B $3,000 3B/SS $3,800 SS $7,500
7 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.258 0.267 0.105 25.6% 6.5% 16.5% 36.7% 3B $2,200 1B/3B $3,000 3B $6,000
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.254 0.300 0.095 28.9% 4.9% 24.8% 47.5% C $2,500 C $2,200 C $4,200
9 Zack Wheeler RIGHT 0.314 0.243 0.125 0.0% 10.0% 30.0% 20.0% P $7,200 P $7,700 P $15,200

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto (GPP), Jay Bruce (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto (Cash), Jay Bruce (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious