MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 22nd - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-22 22:20:29

Milwaukee at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					Oakland
			Junior Guerra					Daniel Mengden
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK -128					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.285	2	20.5%	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.413	1	14.3%	19.1%
SP vs. Right	0.334	5	19.7%	4.9%	SP vs. Right	0.232	1	29.0%	3.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Junior Guerra
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		29.4	FPPG:		15.5
					Pitcher Rating:		45.4	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	5	89.8	4.73	3.68	16.9%	8.1%	9.4%	43.8%	39.3%	41.3%
2016	9	90.1	4.36	3.81	20.4%	8.1%	11.0%	39.5%	40.8%	38.9%
2015	0	0.0	3.28	6.75	16.7%	5.6%	10.6%	57.1%	21.4%	21.4%

Guerra is one of my favorite stories in baseball this season, but unfortunately a good story doesn’t translate into fantasy production. He hasn’t been awful this season, but a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.4% isn’t exactly what we are looking for in a pitcher. He comes into today’s game as an underdog on the road against the A’s, who have the fourth lowest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Daniel Mengden
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$8,700
					FPPG:		31.5	FPPG:		17.7
					Pitcher Rating:		68.3	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	2	102.0	4.10	2.25	23.1%	9.6%	12.3%	45.5%	30.3%	32.4%
2016	2	102.0	4.10	2.25	23.1%	9.6%	12.3%	45.5%	30.3%	32.4%

Mengden has pitched pretty well in his first two major league starts, posting a 2.25 ERA with a strikeout rate of 23.1%. He had good numbers in the minor leagues and so far, he hasn’t been overwhelmed by his promotion to the majors. He has four pitches that he throws regularly and so far, he has produced a good number of swings and misses. I usually like to see a larger sample size before targeting pitchers in cash games, but Mengden is certainly worth a look in tournaments against the strikeout happy Brewers.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are not an offense that I like to target outside of Miller Park. They strikeout at a high rate and usually have one of the lowest team totals on the board when they are playing on the road. That’s the case again today, as they have the sixth lowest run projection. Daniel Mengden is only making his third career start, but I don’t see any Brewers’ bats that really stand out in this one.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.7% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.06 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.83 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.336	0.114	0.259	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,300
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.307	0.128	0.429	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,400
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.354	0.206	0.311	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,900
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.355	0.174	0.346	C	$3,400	C	$3,700
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.327	0.257	0.393	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,400
6	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.314	0.143	0.310	3B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,000
7	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.307	0.157	0.370	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,000
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.228	0.049	0.188	C	$2,200	C	$2,000
9	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.268	0.061	0.306	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.143	0.324	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – NONE

Oakland

The A’s average the fifth fewest runs per game in the majors, but they come into today’s game with the 15th highest run projection. While I don’t hate their offense as a whole, I’m not sure that I will be actively targeting their hitters today. There are better games to target for offensive production in the early slate, specifically the game featured below.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.291 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.133 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.3% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.90 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.17 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.254	0.121	0.220	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
2	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.289	0.110	0.225	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,600
3	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.344	0.193	0.249	C	$3,000	C	$3,100
4	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.359	0.228	0.301	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,900
5	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.346	0.253	0.406	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100
6	Billy Butler	RIGHT	0.308	0.134	0.399	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,100
7	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.318	0.099	0.303	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,600
8	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.285	0.143	0.225	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,900
9	Max Muncy	LEFT	0.285	0.175	0.242			1B/3B	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.310	0.162	0.286	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Stephen Vogt, Danny Valencia

Stackability – NONE

Arizona at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Toronto
			Robbie Ray					J.A. Happ
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -170					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.294	3	24.0%	5.3%	SP vs. Left	0.291	3	23.6%	6.4%
SP vs. Right	0.341	16	22.7%	10.6%	SP vs. Right	0.307	25	18.2%	6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Robbie Ray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		29.8	FPPG:		14.9
					Pitcher Rating:		44.5	Pitcher Rank:		25
L30 Days	6	101.7	3.64	4.41	26.0%	8.9%	9.0%	50.5%	30.1%	34.7%
2016	14	100.1	3.91	4.44	24.9%	9.7%	10.1%	45.4%	30.6%	35.8%
2015	23	98.1	4.05	3.52	21.8%	9.0%	9.0%	43.3%	34.6%	35.0%

Ray is off to a nice start this season, posting a 3.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.9%. He is hoping to quiet the Blue Jays’ bats just like his teammate, Patrick Corbin, did last night. While the Jays may not have the best numbers against lefties this season, their lineup is loaded with right-handed batters that historically have hit southpaws well. Ray is an easy fade for me in this hitter-friendly ballpark.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
J.A. Happ
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$8,400
					FPPG:		31.2	FPPG:		15.6
					Pitcher Rating:		53.6	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	6	93.8	4.65	3.43	16.9%	7.8%	8.0%	47.0%	37.4%	35.3%
2016	14	92.6	4.67	3.41	16.2%	7.2%	8.5%	44.8%	35.1%	32.4%
2015	31	91.6	3.82	3.61	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%

Happ has a much lower ERA than SIERA, which often suggests negative regression will soon rear its ugly head. His strikeout rate is down this season, which means that he won’t be able to make up for runs allowed as easily as he has in years past. The Diamondbacks hit left-handed pitching well as a team, ranking first in both team wOBA and team ISO this season. Both of these pitchers should be avoided in what could end up being a shootout.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are currently the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching. They draw a favorable matchup today against J.A. Happ and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Over the last two seasons, Happ has allowed 25 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.358 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.211 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.4% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.46 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.34 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.288	0.095	0.376	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,900
2	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.278	0.050	0.239	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.455	0.245	0.481	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,000
4	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.389	0.288	0.338	C	$3,200	C	$3,400
5	Rickie Weeks	RIGHT	0.340	0.213	0.437	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000
6	Peter O’Brien	RIGHT	0.732	0.929	0.240	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900
7	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.379	0.249	0.329	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
8	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.286	0.144	0.508	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,700
9	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.330	0.146	0.292	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.386	0.262	0.360	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Rickie Weeks, Peter O’Brien, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays come into today’s game with the second highest team total on the board. Their offense was a disappointment yesterday against Patrick Corbin, but they should be able to right the ship against Robbie Ray, who has allowed a .341 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.320 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.165 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.1% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.68 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.16 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.403	0.133	0.320	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,100
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.340	0.198	0.407	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,600
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.416	0.296	0.538	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,500
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.392	0.281	0.514	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,200
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.364	0.200	0.434	C	$3,100	C	$3,600
6	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.451	0.353	0.555	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600
7	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.335	0.135	0.410	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,500
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.297	0.103	0.461	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.348	0.132	0.200	SS	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.372	0.203	0.427	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NOTE: Since we have two completely different slates today, I am going to separate the evening slate from the early slate. The pitcher rankings and team total rankings below only include the evening games.

San Diego at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Diego					Baltimore
			Erik Johnson					Ubaldo Jimenez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -175					10.0
SP vs. Left	0.378	8	14.5%	10.7%	SP vs. Left	0.342	19	21.5%	9.5%
SP vs. Right	0.410	10	21.8%	10.5%	SP vs. Right	0.342	9	19.1%	9.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Erik Johnson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,900
					FPPG:		14.5	FPPG:		5.1
					Pitcher Rating:		29.2	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	3	105.3	5.45	7.79	12.7%	8.9%	7.0%	37.1%	38.7%	40.3%
2016	4	106.0	5.16	7.66	15.4%	9.6%	7.1%	38.5%	39.7%	42.3%
2015	6	106.2	4.97	3.34	19.9%	11.3%	8.2%	23.8%	52.5%	37.9%

Johnson’s numbers on the season do not look pretty. And this isn’t a case of the ugly duckling that turns out to be great. In four starts, he has a 5.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.4%. He draws one of the worst matchups on the board tonight, as he has to face the Orioles in Camden Yards. Johnson should be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ubaldo Jimenez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,300
					FPPG:		17.4	FPPG:		6.2
					Pitcher Rating:		59.9	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	5	85.6	5.44	11.25	14.3%	11.6%	6.3%	42.2%	32.5%	39.8%
2016	13	94.9	4.86	7.34	17.8%	11.6%	7.2%	49.5%	27.9%	33.5%
2015	32	95.6	3.93	4.11	21.2%	8.6%	8.0%	49.1%	28.8%	27.0%

Jimenez has also struggled this season, posting a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.8% and a walk rate of 11.6%. He has also given up a lot of hard contact, which makes him an easy fade in DFS. Even though the Padres are generally one of the best matchups possible, this may be a good time to jump on a few of the value bats from San Diego.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres are ranked 27th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season, yet they have the sixth highest team total tonight. That goes to show just how favorable the matchup and ballpark are for their hitters. Over the last two seasons, Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed a .342 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.278 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.1% (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.57 (6 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.280	0.124	0.244	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,600
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.344	0.220	0.494	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,500
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.301	0.168	0.364	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.327	0.161	0.145	3B	$2,500	2B/3B	$4,000
5	Brett Wallace	LEFT	0.349	0.204	0.160	1B	$2,100	3B	$3,500
6	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.302	0.144	0.383	OF	$3,000	OF	$5,200
7	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.276	0.167	0.272	3B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,200
8	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.284	0.151	0.296	C	$2,900	C	$3,800
9	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.266	0.102	0.240	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.303	0.160	0.289	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Travis Jankowski (FD), Wil Myers

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski (DK), Matt Kemp, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

The Orioles come into tonight’s game with the highest run projection of any of the 16 teams in the evening slate. They draw an excellent matchup against the struggling Erik Johnson. The sample size is small (ten starts), but Johnson has allowed a .378 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .410 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.345 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.201 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.84 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.43 (1 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.340	0.215	0.356	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.382	0.090	0.294	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
3	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.340	0.195	0.261	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,200
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.395	0.321	0.466	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,100
5	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.337	0.170	0.338	C	$3,200	C	$3,800
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.365	0.242	0.439	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,800
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.338	0.235	0.363	3B	$3,100	1B	$3,700
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.263	0.121	0.306	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,100
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.282	0.146	0.373	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.338	0.193	0.355	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					Pittsburgh
			Jeff Samardzija					Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -105					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.344	26	17.8%	6.0%	SP vs. Left	0.289	6	25.4%	9.4%
SP vs. Right	0.291	13	19.2%	4.7%	SP vs. Right	0.308	23	25.1%	10.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jeff Samardzija
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		36.1	FPPG:		19.2
					Pitcher Rating:		66.9	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	99.6	4.55	4.15	15.9%	5.6%	8.4%	44.3%	38.1%	31.3%
2016	14	104.9	3.93	3.14	19.9%	5.3%	9.7%	47.1%	33.2%	29.4%
2015	32	104.3	4.18	4.96	17.9%	5.4%	9.8%	39.0%	39.8%	27.0%

Samardzija has struggled with consistency over the last few years and that has plagued him again this season. After a great start to the year, he has a 4.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.9% over the last month of play. I generally like to avoid him on the road and since his matchup against the Pirates is less than ideal, that’s exactly what I will be doing tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Francisco Liriano
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$5,800
					FPPG:		26.2	FPPG:		12.4
					Pitcher Rating:		65.1	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	5	97.6	5.61	5.74	18.8%	16.4%	9.2%	48.1%	31.6%	37.0%
2016	13	97.5	4.76	5.03	22.0%	13.7%	10.6%	51.0%	31.4%	36.2%
2015	31	96.2	3.38	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%

Liriano has been a shell of his former self this season. He currently owns a 4.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 13.7%. The worst part is that his peripheral statistics don’t suggest any positive regression. Don’t be drawn in by his numbers from a season ago, as he has been a completely different pitcher this year. I will be avoiding Liriano in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants may have the fourth lowest team total on the board tonight, but their matchup is a little better than Vegas implies. Francisco Liriano continues to walk a ton of batters and he has allowed a .332 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .361 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.315 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.140 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.9% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.49 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.97 (13 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.264	0.081	0.197	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,000
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.313	0.091	0.356	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,600
3	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.372	0.224	0.463	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,600
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.371	0.186	0.376	C	$3,800	C	$4,400
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.289	0.126	0.287	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,500
6	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.317	0.075	0.250	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600
7	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.407	0.321	0.406	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400
8	Jeff Samardzija	RIGHT	0.110	0.000	0.000	P	$9,800	P	$8,900
9	Ramiro Pena	SWITCH	0.000	0.000	0.293	3B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.271	0.123	0.292	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Angel Pagan

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a boom or bust matchup against Jeff Samardzija, who has looked both good and bad at different points during the season. In terms of splits, Samardzija is much tougher on right-handed hitters than he is on left-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .344 wOBA and 26 home runs to batters from the left side of the plate.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.139 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.61 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.03 (11 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.349	0.151	0.281	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,000
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.342	0.160	0.297	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,000
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.359	0.190	0.247	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,300
4	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.368	0.197	0.310	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,800
5	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.305	0.173	0.279	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000
6	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.305	0.104	0.240	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,800
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.261	0.061	0.330	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,700
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.061	0.023	0.113	C	$2,200	C	$2,000
9	Francisco Liriano	LEFT	0.250	0.087	0.000	P	$8,700	P	$5,800
	Team Averages	—	0.289	0.127	0.233	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang, Matt Joyce

Stackability – GPP

Seattle at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Seattle					Detroit
			Hisashi Iwakuma					Michael Fulmer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -111					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.323	13	18.7%	4.3%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0	15.5%	11.7%
SP vs. Right	0.289	19	21.2%	4.9%	SP vs. Right	0.304	6	29.1%	7.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Hisashi Iwakuma
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		29.9	FPPG:		14.8
					Pitcher Rating:		55.8	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	5	92.0	4.28	3.86	16.9%	2.2%	9.1%	33.9%	43.1%	35.5%
2016	14	93.3	4.35	4.18	17.9%	5.3%	9.0%	38.9%	38.9%	30.5%
2015	20	93.4	3.36	3.54	21.5%	4.1%	10.6%	50.4%	31.1%	26.9%

Iwakuma is off to a somewhat shaky start this season. In 14 starts, he has a 4.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.9%. His ground ball rate is way down, while his hard hit contact rate is way up. That’s not a great combination for a pitcher, especially one that has a declining strikeout rate. Even though the Tigers’ lineup consists primarily of right-handed hitters, I’m not a fan of the matchup for Iwakuma in Detroit.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Fulmer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$9,700
					FPPG:		38.5	FPPG:		20.0
					Pitcher Rating:		64.8	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	6	98.3	4.10	0.45	23.2%	9.3%	11.7%	48.0%	38.8%	27.0%
2016	10	96.9	4.04	2.43	23.4%	9.4%	11.2%	48.8%	33.8%	31.5%

Fulmer has looked good in his first ten major league starts, posting a 4.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.4%. He generates a lot of swings and misses and he has been able to pitch out of jams this season. While I love his prospects moving forward, I don’t love his matchup against the Mariners. On the season, Seattle is ranked fourth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners draw a difficult matchup against Michael Fulmer, but they come into the game with the eighth highest team projection. In terms of splits, there really isn’t anything that stands out when it comes to Fulmer. In ten starts, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.337 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.182 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.6% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.94 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (8 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.301	0.151	0.299	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,300
2	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.347	0.188	0.328	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,100
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.377	0.222	0.391	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,100
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.368	0.226	0.334	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.347	0.195	0.324	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,900
6	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.350	0.203	0.373	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,400
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.265	0.148	0.451	C	$2,700	C	$2,700
8	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.320	0.107	0.265	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,700
9	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.309	0.084	0.266	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.169	0.337	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

The Tigers are small favorites tonight at home and they come into the game with the seventh highest team total on the board. While I do expect their offense to knock around Hisashi Iwakuma, it’s hard to pinpoint where that production is going to come from. Over the last two seasons, Iwakuma has held right-handed hitters to a .289 wOBA.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.74 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.32 (7 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.340	0.153	0.334	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,900
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.303	0.079	0.243	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.416	0.219	0.396	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,500
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.299	0.147	0.314	C	$3,000	1B	$3,500
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.311	0.167	0.302	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,600
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.338	0.198	0.396	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400
7	Steven Moya	LEFT	0.329	0.190	0.348	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,300
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.247	0.079	0.263	C	$2,400	C	$2,400
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.285	0.055	0.346	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.143	0.327	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 22nd - Page Two

Milwaukee at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – NONE

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Stephen Vogt, Danny Valencia

Stackability – NONE

Arizona at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Rickie Weeks, Peter O’Brien, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – Cash & GPP

San Diego at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Travis Jankowski (FD), Wil Myers

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski (DK), Matt Kemp, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Angel Pagan

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang, Matt Joyce

Stackability – GPP

Seattle at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton

Stackability – GPP

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