MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-23 01:29:41

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Atlanta at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					Miami
			John Gant					Adam Conley
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -170					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.359	1	22.8%	10.5%	SP vs. Left	0.344	1	18.0%	9.8%
SP vs. Right	0.306	1	26.2%	11.9%	SP vs. Right	0.306	12	22.3%	8.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
John Gant
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,500
					FPPG:		13.2	FPPG:		6.8
					Pitcher Rating:		45.1	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	2	96.0	4.73	2.63	21.1%	12.3%	9.2%	42.9%	40.0%	21.1%
2016	2	96.0	4.08	4.37	24.2%	11.1%	9.3%	40.0%	40.0%	31.8%

We have two slates on tap today. The first day game is between the Braves and Marlins. Gant will be on the mound for Atlanta. This will be his third career major league start and he comes into the game as a sizable underdog on the road. He has shown some decent strikeout upside, but we want to see a bigger sample size before targeting him in DFS.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Conley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$7,600
					FPPG:		27.1	FPPG:		13.7
					Pitcher Rating:		65.8	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	6	100.3	4.98	4.64	19.1%	11.8%	8.1%	41.7%	39.6%	23.0%
2016	14	92.2	4.45	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	9.5%	39.7%	38.8%	27.7%
2015	11	100.2	3.98	3.76	21.0%	7.5%	10.1%	40.6%	40.6%	21.7%

Conley is an interesting play in the early-only slate because he really opens up a lot of salary cap space. I wouldn’t think of using him as an SP1, but if you want to drop down and target him as an SP2, I certainly don’t mind it. The Braves are ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season and Conley has a strikeout rate of 21.8%. Run support should also be in his favor, as he is a sizable favorite at home.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves were unable to get anything going against Jose Fernandez last night, but they quickly put up a couple of runs once the Marlins turned to their bullpen. They draw a decent matchup today against Adam Conley, but there isn’t a ton to love here from a DFS perspective. The Braves struggle as a team against left-handed pitching and they are facing Conley in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.260 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.081 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.9% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.36 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.84 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.215	0.077	0.388	2B	$2,700	2B/OF	$2,300
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.243	0.050	0.332	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.324	0.132	0.537	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,200
4	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.307	0.132	0.243	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.272	0.049	0.290	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.309	0.103	0.341	C	$2,500	C	$3,100
7	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.322	0.119	0.266	2B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,000
8	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.236	0.052	0.425	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,500
9	John Gant	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,000	P	$4,500
	Team Averages	—	0.248	0.079	0.314	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

Miami

The Marlins were a bit of a disappointment last night against Bud Norris, but they have a chance to redeem themselves today against John Gant, who is still inexperienced at the major league level. Give a small edge to the batters that can hit from the left side of the plate.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.7% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.66 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ichiro Suzuki	LEFT	0.264	0.036	0.466	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
2	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.272	0.083	0.305	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,100
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.370	0.155	0.340	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.309	0.144	0.430	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800
5	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.359	0.249	0.411	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.374	0.199	0.280	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,600
7	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.249	0.099	0.273	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,400
8	Jeff Mathis	RIGHT	0.194	0.089	0.390	C	$2,200	C	$2,000
9	Adam Conley	LEFT	0.104	0.000	0.000	P	$8,500	P	$7,600
	Team Averages	—	0.277	0.117	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Ichiro Suzuki, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – GPP

Colorado at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					NY Yankees
			Jon Gray					CC Sabathia
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -145					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.319	6	25.8%	7.8%	SP vs. Left	0.259	4	28.7%	7.3%
SP vs. Right	0.330	6	23.6%	6.8%	SP vs. Right	0.340	26	17.3%	7.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Gray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$10,000
					FPPG:		32.8	FPPG:		17.5
					Pitcher Rating:		59.7	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	5	96.0	3.54	2.43	25.2%	6.9%	13.1%	48.3%	34.5%	35.2%
2016	11	93.5	3.33	4.55	26.8%	7.1%	12.4%	49.1%	28.1%	31.4%
2015	9	75.8	3.89	5.53	21.6%	7.6%	10.1%	42.4%	32.8%	36.4%

Gray has all the tools to be an ace in the major leagues, he just hasn’t had any luck on his side. His ERA on the season is a full run higher than his SIERA. His peripheral statistics all look good, as he has a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.8%. The good news for him today is that he doesn’t have to pitch in Coors Field. The bad news is that Yankee Stadium isn’t all that much better for pitchers. He seems a bit overpriced as an underdog on the road.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$8,500
					FPPG:		34.2	FPPG:		17.8
					Pitcher Rating:		56.8	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	5	99.6	4.42	0.87	21.6%	10.4%	9.0%	46.9%	37.0%	23.2%
2016	11	95.5	4.48	2.20	20.4%	9.9%	9.1%	46.2%	35.7%	23.1%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

Sabathia continues to pitch out of trouble, which has led to a 2.20 ERA this season. It’s only a matter of time before regression hits, as he currently has a 4.48 SIERA with a walk rate of 9.9%. The Rockies may not be an elite offense away from Coors Field, but they certainly have some quality hitters in their lineup. Rather than targeting Sabathia and crossing my fingers, I will be looking elsewhere at pitcher in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

CC Sabathia is one of the easiest pitchers to breakdown in terms of the matchup. He is very good against left-handed hitters and very bad against right-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .340 wOBA and 26 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.180 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.7% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.01 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.99 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.319	0.127	0.319	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.355	0.107	0.477	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,900
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.352	0.221	0.335	3B	$3,900	3B	$3,700
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.257	0.153	0.386	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.357	0.234	0.367	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,900
6	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.406	0.266	0.332	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,800
7	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.317	0.153	0.378	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,400
8	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.322	0.144	0.311	C	$2,500	C	$2,300
9	Brandon Barnes	RIGHT	0.231	0.024	0.115	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.159	0.336	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story (FD)

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story (DK), Ryan Raburn

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees

The Yankees don’t have the best matchup on paper, but they come into the game with the ninth highest run projection of the 30 teams in action today. Jon Gray may be a great pitcher eventually, but he has allowed a .319 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .330 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.51 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.313	0.109	0.292	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,100
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.333	0.149	0.332	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,300
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.357	0.217	0.459	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.333	0.209	0.292	3B	$3,500	1B/3B	$3,000
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.328	0.211	0.326	C	$3,300	C	$3,100
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.287	0.130	0.248	2B	$3,000	2B	$2,400
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.302	0.123	0.413	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,000
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.304	0.105	0.376	3B	$2,700	3B	$2,400
9	Ike Davis	LEFT	0.289	0.111	0.222	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.152	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez

Stackability – GPP

Kansas City at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					NY Mets
			Danny Duffy					Noah Syndergaard
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -185					6.5
SP vs. Left	0.252	0	27.9%	5.7%	SP vs. Left	0.293	12	26.3%	5.5%
SP vs. Right	0.337	24	18.7%	8.7%	SP vs. Right	0.242	11	31.7%	3.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Danny Duffy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,400
					FPPG:		13.8	FPPG:		7.9
					Pitcher Rating:		63.5	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	6	78.3	3.19	3.55	28.2%	3.8%	14.7%	30.1%	51.8%	32.6%
2016	7	112.3	3.03	3.17	29.0%	5.5%	16.4%	34.1%	45.9%	29.5%
2015	24	98.3	4.63	4.08	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	38.8%	36.5%	29.5%

Duffy has been terrific this season, posting a 3.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of only 5.5%. He went from being a spot starter to being one of the better pitchers in the Royals’ rotation. I don’t love the fact that he is such a large underdog today, but that has more to do with the opposing pitcher than it does his matchup against the Mets. On the season, New York is ranked 27th in team wOBA and 30th in team K% against left-handed pitching. Duffy is a sneaky GPP play that should get overlooked by the masses.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Noah Syndergaard
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$13,000
					FPPG:		43.1	FPPG:		24.7
					Pitcher Rating:		94.4	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	96.6	2.27	1.42	32.5%	2.4%	15.7%	48.1%	26.6%	30.5%
2016	13	97.5	2.38	1.91	31.9%	3.6%	15.1%	53.4%	26.4%	27.7%
2015	24	99.2	2.95	3.24	27.5%	5.1%	12.2%	46.5%	33.6%	24.6%

Syndergaard was scratched from his start yesterday, but it was not due to an injury of any kind. The Mets just decided to push his start back a day, so we can target him with complete confidence in DFS. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 2.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.9% and a walk rate of 3.6%. The Royals used to be a team that we wanted to avoid taking pitchers against, but that hasn’t been the case this season. I have Syndergaard ranked as the top pitching option available today.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals come into today’s game with the lowest team total on the board. They do not hit for a lot of power and they are facing a superhero (Thor) in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Over the last two seasons, Noah Syndergaard has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.133 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.09 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.76 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.342	0.146	0.377	2B	$3,400	2B/OF	$3,600
2	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.263	0.060	0.193	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,400
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.387	0.189	0.364	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200
4	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.321	0.127	0.259	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.348	0.210	0.513	C	$3,100	C	$4,400
6	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.334	0.181	0.416	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,000
7	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.298	0.115	0.340	3B	$2,400	3B	$2,700
8	Brett Eibner	RIGHT	0.332	0.250	0.260	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,300
9	Danny Duffy	LEFT				P	$7,400	P	$7,400
	Team Averages	—	0.328	0.160	0.340	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

The Mets may be large favorites today, but they still have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board. They do not hit left-handed pitching well as a team and they draw a difficult matchup against Danny Duffy, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA this season.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.301 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.151 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.4% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.68 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.74 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.258	0.129	0.387	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.316	0.130	0.305	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,200
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.356	0.242	0.354	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,000
4	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.319	0.155	0.253	2B	$3,200	2B	$2,800
5	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.372	0.231	0.352	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,400
6	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.445	0.320		C	$2,000	C	$3,700
7	Matt Reynolds	LEFT	0.462	0.300	0.366	3B	$2,000	2B	$2,000
8	James Loney	LEFT	0.270	0.104	0.296	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,400
9	Noah Syndergaard	RIGHT	0.144	0.000	0.242	P	$10,900	P	$13,000
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.179	0.319	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					Houston
			Matt Shoemaker					Lance McCullers
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -145					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.309	16	19.9%	6.4%	SP vs. Left	0.274	3	29.7%	8.7%
SP vs. Right	0.333	18	24.1%	4.8%	SP vs. Right	0.328	8	21.4%	11.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Shoemaker
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$10,300
					FPPG:		29.1	FPPG:		15.5
					Pitcher Rating:		63.8	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	6	104.7	2.29	1.83	32.7%	1.2%	18.5%	42.3%	36.0%	31.5%
2016	13	91.5	3.50	4.50	24.5%	4.8%	14.3%	37.9%	37.0%	32.4%
2015	24	87.0	3.98	4.46	20.4%	6.2%	9.1%	39.2%	42.4%	30.9%

Shoemaker continues to pitch well for the Angels. After a horrid start to the season, he has really turned it around. Over the last month of play (six starts), he has a 2.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32.7% and a walk rate of 1.2%. With each start, he is proving that he is more than just a flash in the pan. While he isn’t getting a ton of love from the oddsmakers, you have to like his strikeout upside against the Astros. His price is a little high for cash games, but the upside needed for GPPs is there.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Lance McCullers
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$8,200
					FPPG:		35.7	FPPG:		17.7
					Pitcher Rating:		78.4	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	5	101.0	3.99	3.64	28.9%	14.8%	13.1%	62.2%	20.3%	26.3%
2016	7	98.0	4.06	4.24	27.5%	14.3%	12.5%	59.6%	21.2%	29.3%
2015	22	95.9	3.57	3.22	24.8%	8.3%	9.8%	46.5%	31.8%	28.9%

McCullers has pitched well this season other than his walks allowed. He is walking over 14% of the batters that he faces, which drives up his pitch counts and makes him work out of the stretch more often than he’d like. The good news is that the upside has been there, as he has a strikeout rate of 27.5%. He draws a decent matchup today against the Angels, although as a team, they have the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I’m just fine with McCullers as an SP2 in the early-only slate, but there are better SP1’s on the board.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Outside of Mike Trout, the Angels haven’t done much of anything offensively this season. In fact, if you take him out of the lineup, they would be right there with the Braves and Phillies for the worst offense in baseball. They draw a difficult matchup against Lance McCullers, although he has allowed a .328 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.312 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.139 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.8% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.30 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.74 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.341	0.094	0.321	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,300
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.334	0.172	0.314	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.412	0.285	0.355	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,900
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.324	0.202	0.219	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,200
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.330	0.179	0.387	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,600
6	Daniel Nava	SWITCH	0.263	0.065	0.220	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,700
7	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.288	0.077	0.205	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,400
8	Carlos Perez	RIGHT	0.276	0.121	0.169	C	$2,200	C	$2,100
9	Gregorio Petit	RIGHT	0.335	0.137	0.435	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.148	0.292	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron

Stackability – NONE

Houston

The Astros have a mediocre run projection today, ranking 13th of the 30 teams in action. They haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season and they draw a tough matchup against Matt Shoemaker, who has looked more like Jake Arrieta than himself over the last month of play. The Astros are favorites, but I’m not a huge fan of their bats today.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.312 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.165 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.8% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.20 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.26 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.339	0.174	0.260	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,700
2	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.292	0.119	0.399	1B	$3,400	1B/3B	$3,400
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.342	0.153	0.412	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,400
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.360	0.208	0.377	SS	$4,100	SS	$3,600
5	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.327	0.218	0.344	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,300
6	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.297	0.145	0.409	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,300
7	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.342	0.216	0.444	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,300
8	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.315	0.221	0.219	C	$3,100	C	$3,300
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.328	0.201	0.286	C	$2,700	C	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.184	0.350	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Colby Rasmus

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
St. Louis					Chicago Cubs
			Michael Wacha					Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -220					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.287	10	19.3%	8.2%	SP vs. Left	0.219	4	29.4%	7.8%
SP vs. Right	0.312	15	20.6%	7.7%	SP vs. Right	0.230	9	25.5%	5.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Wacha
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		25.3	FPPG:		12.8
					Pitcher Rating:		49.7	Pitcher Rank:		23
L30 Days	5	94.8	4.42	5.46	20.6%	9.5%	8.7%	40.7%	31.4%	29.6%
2016	14	95.4	4.29	4.56	20.0%	8.6%	8.2%	45.3%	29.0%	29.3%
2015	30	97.9	4.02	3.37	20.1%	7.6%	9.5%	45.8%	32.0%	29.7%

Wacha is no longer that elite strikeout pitcher that we saw a few years back. Through 14 starts this season, he has a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He is walking too many batters and he isn’t producing enough ground balls. He draws an awful matchup today against the Cubs, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA and tenth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. With Jake Arrieta pitching opposite him, Wacha is an easy fade.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Arrieta
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$12,100	Salary:		$12,800
					FPPG:		47.1	FPPG:		26.8
					Pitcher Rating:		90.9	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	5	105.0	3.00	2.70	29.9%	8.7%	13.5%	62.7%	24.0%	19.7%
2016	14	103.0	3.25	1.74	27.8%	8.5%	11.4%	57.5%	24.8%	21.9%
2015	33	104.2	2.75	1.77	27.1%	5.5%	11.1%	56.2%	22.8%	22.1%

Arrieta is having another terrific season, posting a 3.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.8%. He is walking a few more batters this season, but as long as he continues to rack up the strikeouts, it’s not a big deal in DFS. Arrieta is typically the number one pitching option on the slate, but with Noah Syndergaard in a good matchup at home and Arrieta having to face the Cardinals, he drops down to the second best pitcher available today. The upside is always there, but the Cardinals are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals may be ranked inside the top ten in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season, but they are an easy offense to avoid today. Over the last two seasons, Jake Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .230 wOBA.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.347 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.198 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.3% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.29 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.06 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.405	0.262	0.504	2B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,900
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.374	0.217	0.216	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,900
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.355	0.167	0.362	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000
4	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.332	0.200	0.259	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,000
5	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.340	0.162	0.348	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300
6	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.329	0.118	0.338	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,300
7	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.305	0.095	0.339	C	$2,000	C	$2,400
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.318	0.131	0.263	2B	$2,000	2B	$2,100
9	Michael Wacha	RIGHT	0.137	0.017	0.000	P	$7,200	P	$6,800
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.152	0.292	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw a mediocre matchup today against Michael Wacha. While he hasn’t been as dominant this season, Wacha is still fairly tough on both left and right-handed hitters. With so many favorable matchups to exploit, I will only be using the Cubs in GPPs. There are better cash game targets in games that are expected to be high scoring.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.334 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.173 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.2% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.43 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.44 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.322	0.191	0.264	3B	$2,400	2B/OF	$2,500
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.338	0.146	0.347	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.378	0.218	0.402	3B	$4,300	3B/OF	$5,100
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.397	0.270	0.470	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,400
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.351	0.174	0.351	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,300
6	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.319	0.153	0.223	C	$2,200	C	$3,100
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.323	0.149	0.341	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,200
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.275	0.135	0.415	SS	$3,100	3B/SS	$3,500
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.192	0.118	0.489	P	$12,100	P	$12,800
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.173	0.367	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 22nd

Atlanta at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Ichiro Suzuki, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – GPP

Colorado at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story (FD)

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story (DK), Ryan Raburn

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez

Stackability – GPP

Kansas City at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron

Stackability – NONE

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Colby Rasmus

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Chris Coghlan, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – NONE

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