NFL Preseason DFS Picks: Friday, August 14th
What’s up Grinders? Week 1 of the NFL preseason continues tonight with six games. DraftKings has posted a little over $50K in guaranteed contests for this slate, and FantasyAces has joined the party with a $50 freeroll.
Before we get into the picks, let’s talk about what we have learned so far. Most teams have followed the same pattern in their first preseason game. Starters play 1-2 series, then backups play until about halftime. After that, we usually see the third and fourth teamers for the remainder of the game. With that in mind, our ideal targets are second and third teamers.
The plays mentioned below are the guys I am targeting based on my best guess at playing time. If you come across someone you want to play who isn’t listed, that doesn’t make them a bad play. I can’t list every single player. Just make sure that you have verified from a reputable source that your player is likely to see at least one quarter and preferably one-half worth of play.
Tennessee at Atlanta
Tennessee:
QB: Marcus Mariota and Zach Mettenberger – It is tough to predict whether Mariota will get enough reps tonight for us to consider him. Word on the street is he may play up to a quarter. By all accounts, Mariota has been flawless in camp. If you use Mariota you are banking on the Titans scoring in one of their first 2-3 series. After Mariota, we should see Mettenberger for a quarter or two. I’m leaning ever so slightly towards Mariota here, but this is too close to call. Play whichever of Mariota/Mettenberger you think maximizes their reps.
RB: David Cobb – It looks like Bishop Sankey is the regular season starter here followed closely by Dexter McCluster. The guy to watch tonight though is fifth-round pick David Cobb. The rookie out of Minnesota has the skills to excel in this league. He just needs the opportunity. Cobb is exactly the type of player that can climb his way to the top of the depth chart with a strong showing.
WR: Dorial Green-Beckham and Tre McBride – Rookie Dorial Green-Beckham hasn’t played an organized football game in close to 20 months. The book on “DGB” is that he is a talented player on the field but a bit of a head case off the field. DGB was the Titans second round pick this year. He has been great in camp and even earned some first team reps. Look for DGB to get a long look tonight as he challenges for a spot in the rotation at WR. The other Titan wide receiver I like is Tre McBride. The Titans nabbed McBride in the seventh round this year. To me, McBride is better than your average seventh-rounder. He should be playing with a chip on his shoulder tonight.
Atlanta:
QB: T.J. Yates – The Falcons have three quarterbacks on their roster. They are Matt Ryan, T.J. Yates, and Sean Renfree. Ryan should see a series or two like most starters. After that, we should get a good long look at T.J. Yates (no relation to me) and then Sean Renfree in mop-up duty. The reps for Yates and Renfree should be about equal, but Yates will almost certainly do more with his.
RB: Terron Ward – With Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman out tonight, the Falcons will only have Ward, Antone Smith, Jerome Smith, and Michael Ford as active running backs. You could certainly make a case for one of the other three, but I like Ward here. He’s trying to earn the “power back” role and I think he sees some goal line carries. Also consider: Antone Smith, Jerome Smith, and Michael Ford
WR: Leonard Hankerson – “The Hankster” has easily been the most impressive receiver in Falcons camp. He has flashed his breakaway speed and athleticism several times and seems like a lock to secure the third WR spot. With Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Devin Hester unlikely to play much, the door is wide open for Hankerson tonight. Also consider: Justin Hardy, Marquez Clark, and Eric Weems
TE: Levine Toilolo – With the additions of Jacob Tamme and Tony Moeaki my boy Levine Toilolo finds himself “toiling” on the roster bubble. Toilolo needs a strong preseason if he wants to convince the Falcons to keep three TEs. He should see plenty of reps tonight. The only question is will he be able to take advantage of them?
Carolina at Buffalo
Carolina
QB: Joe Webb – The Panthers already know what they have in starter Cam Newton and backup Derek Anderson. I would expect those two to split time in the first half. After that, it should be the Joe Webb show in the second half. Webb isn’t a great quarterback, but he can rack up points with his ability to scramble. The running points should give Webb a nice floor and any passes he actually completes will be a nice little bonus.
RB: Cameron Artis-Payne – Jonathan Stewart is the unquestioned starter here and should play the first series. After that, the race for backup is wide open. The contenders are Fozzy Whittaker, Jordan Todman, and Curtis Artis-Payne (CAP). Of the three, I like CAP the best, though I wouldn’t fault you for using the other two. Carries should be split relatively equally between them. Also consider: Fozzy Whittaker, Jordan Todman
WR: Panthers WRs – The situation at wide receiver for the Panthers is tough to handicap. The Panthers currently have eleven WRs on the roster. At least a few of them will not make the first cut. We know Kelvin Benjamin, Corey Brown, Ted Ginn, and Jerricho Cotchery are probably safe. The guys to watch tonight are Devin Funchess, Brenton Bersin, Damiere Byrd, and Jarrett Boykin. If I’m forced to choose I’m leaning toward either Boykin or Bersin.
TE: Ed Dickson and Richie Brockel – I won’t be going here but I try to list a QB, RB, WR, and TE for every team. Just based on the Panthers depth chart, Ed Dickson is Greg Olsen’s backup and Richie Brockel is the third-stringer. I’m mostly indifferent on these two but I think we can do better on this slate.
Buffalo
QB: Tyrod Taylor – I mentioned in my first preseason article that the Bills have a three-headed monster at QB. Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor, and E.J. Manuel are battling for the starting spot. It sounds like E.J. Manuel is losing the battle, even though the Bills listed all three as their starter on the first depth chart. Mike Rodak of ESPN is reporting that Cassel will get the first crack tonight followed by Tyrod Taylor. Typically, when a team has three players competing at QB, they give each of the first two a half, and then the third gets his shot in the second preseason game. If that holds true with the Bills, I don’t mind either Cassel or Taylor. I will try to update this as it gets closer to game time if we get a sense of how playing time will break out. If Cassel is getting the entire first half, I like him a lot. If he only gets a quarter, I don’t like him at all and would pivot to Taylor.
RB: Karlos Williams and Bryce Brown – With Fred Jackson and Anthony Dixon sidelined, Bryce Brown needed a strong week of practice this week to secure his role on the team. Things didn’t go as planned though when Brown’s fumbling problem reared its head again. Brown actually lost second-team reps this week to Karlos Williams who has looked great. I like Williams over Brown but it is very close. I wouldn’t even hate the idea of playing both and locking up all the RB carries in this game.
WR: Marquise Goodwin – The Bills are another team with eleven wide receivers on the roster and quite a logjam after the starters. The one guy who needs a strong performance tonight to make the team is Marquise Goodwin. A 2013 third-rounder, Goodwin has been unimpressive thus far in his career. Some even speculated he might be looking on to his next career when he competed in the Pan-Am Games in June and took silver in the long jump. Goodwin has the athletic ability to win a spot but he needs to put it to use on the field tonight. Also Consider: Chris Hogan, Deonte Thompson, Marcus Easley
TE: Nick O’Leary – If you played CFB last season, you already know about Nick O’Leary. The talented TE out of Florida State is currently buried on the Bills depth chart. I think he sees plenty of action tonight with the 2s and 3s. You could do a lot worse at TE than O’Leary.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Pittsburgh:
I was about to tell you about how I like all of the same Pittsburgh players that I liked last Sunday. Then I realized DraftKings doesn’t have a single Pittsburgh player in the pool. If you are playing FantasyAces I like Landry, Archer, Coates, and James but I’m not going to waste time on them here.
Jacksonville:
QB: Chad Henne – With Blake Bortles likely to play close to a quarter I was close to recommending him here. If Bortles tosses a touchdown during that quarter he could hit value. If you think that happens, go with Bortles here. If not, I like Henne a little better than Bortles even though neither are in my top tier of QBs for this slate.
RB: Toby Gerhart – T.Y. Yeldon will most likely splits carries with Denard Robinson in the regular season. Yeldon sprained his thumb last Saturday and has already been ruled out tonight. I assume Robinson will start tonight but Gerhart should get some first and second team reps. Bernard Pierce is also somehow on this team but I have no idea what his role might look like tonight. Last but not least Corey Grant should see some work. Also consider: Bernard Pierce, Corey Grant
WR: Bryan Walters and Tandon Doss – With Marqise Lee out and other first-teamers unlikely to play more than a quarter, we should get a long look at the battle for reserve wide receiver. Tandon Doss and Bryan Walters are two candidates who have looked great in camp. I like both Walters and Doss as well as rookie Rashad Greene. Also consider: Rashad Greene, Arrelious Benn
TE: – Clay Harbor and Marcedes Lewis -The Jaguars signed Julius Thomas in the offseason to be their starting TE. He will play with the first team tonight. After him we should see Lewis and Harbor in a battle for the backup TE role. Rookie Ben Koyack is also challenging for a roster spot. One of those three players needs to separate from the pack or they may end up cut. Also consider: Ben Koyack
New York Giants at Cincinnati
New York Giants
QB: Ryan Nassib – When you play behind an ironman like Eli Manning you don’t get many regular season reps. That means players like Ryan Nassib look forward to preseason. I doubt Manning plays much tonight, which should leave all the reps for Nassib and Ricky Stanzi. Given his experience and likely playing time, I have Nassib as the top QB play on this slate.
RB: Orleans Darkwa and Akeem Hunt – The Giants seemingly always have some young unheralded RB emerge in the first game of the preseason. Last year it was Andre Williams. With the Giants getting Shane Vereen in free agency, there definitely isn’t room for five RBs on this roster. Jennings, Williams, and Vereen are safe. That leaves possibly one spot for Orleans Darkwa or Akeem Hunt. Both should get their chance tonight to stake their claim to that spot.
WR: Corey Washington and Geremy Davis – The Giants are loaded at wide receiver, and there are going to be some tough cuts at the position. Washington is a guy whose status seems somewhat in doubt over the long term. The team’s top three receivers are set, return specialist Dwayne Harris is a lock to make the team and rookie Geremy Davis is having a sensational summer and is quickly becoming a lock. Washington needs to show something tonight or he will be a numbers casualty. Also consider: James Jones
TE: – Adrien Robinson – Daniel Fells and Larry Donnell have the starting TE roles locked up already. A guy like Adrien Robinson is a long shot to make this team but he does have four years of NFL experience. I don’t love this pick but selecting a preseason TE is never very glamorous.
Cincinnati
Update: AJ McCarron will not play tonight. Josh Johnson should see all the reps he can handle
QB: AJ McCarron – This is probably the most frustrating situation on this slate. McCarron injured his rib or chest (depending on who you listen to) in Monday’s practice. He’s not 100% and the Bengals won’t reveal the nature of the injury or even confirm whether McCarron will play tonight. If he is a go, I like McCarron, but this situation will need to be monitored all the way up to lock. If McCarron doesn’t go, I guess that means we see journeyman Josh Johnson.
RB: Rex Burkhead – Throughout camp, Burkhead has lined up at RB and also at slot WR. I think we will see Burkhead play some RB tonight as well as WR. Hopefully most of his touches will be receptions which will net us an extra point on a PPR site like DK.
WR: Mario Alford – The seventh-round pick has been impressive in camp and even caught a touchdown from AJ McCarron in a mock game. By all accounts, Alford will get as many reps as he can handle in hopes of proving he is worthy of making the roster.
TE: Tyler Kroft – The Bengals third-round pick this year is in a tight battle with C.J. Uzomah for the number No. 2 role. I like Kroft to win that battle but I think both Kroft and Uzomah are in play tonight. Also consider: C.J. Uzomah
St. Louis at Oakland
St. Louis
QB: Sean Mannion – The Rams QB situation has been very shaky this preseason. Foles just signed an extension but he has been an interception machine. Case Keenum hasn’t done anything to fight off Austin Davis for the backup role and rookie Sean Mannion has looked like the third-rounder that he is. I don’t see any of these guys getting enough reps to be playable for DFS purposes. I doubt I will have any exposure to this situation.
RB: Rams RBs – Todd Gurley won’t play tonight and Tre Mason is also unlikely to play. The team knows what Benny Cunningham can do already, so I think the reps go to Trey Watts, Chase Reynolds, Isaiah Pead, Malcolm Brown, and Zach Laskey. The situation is a bit crowded here, and I think we could see someone get the “hot hand” and dominate the carries. Unfortunately, I can’t predict who that will be. I’m personally staying away unless we get clarity from one of the beat writers.
WR: Bradley Marquez – This is kind of a random pick as Marquez seems like a practice squad candidate at best. He has made at least one jaw dropping play in almost every practice though. Tonight may be his only chance to impress the coaches and try to make this team. Also consider: Brian Quick, Chris Givens
TE: Lance Kendricks – Is a big TE who should be on the field plenty in running situations as well as on the goal line. Maybe he can get lucky and snags us a touchdown tonight.
Oakland
QB: Christian Ponder and Matt McGloin – Starter Derek Carr will likely play just one drive or two at the most. After that, we will see Ponder and McGloin for the rest of the game. I think you could play either one of them as they both should see enough reps to hit value. The decision here is do you want the guy playing with better teammates but against a better defense, or do you want the guy playing with scrubs against scrubs? I’m leaning ever so slightly towards Ponder.
RB: Taiwan Jones – The fifth-year veteran recently made the move from cornerback to running back. He has excellent speed but is having some ball control issues. The Raiders do have a few packages designed to take advantage of his speed though. Hopefully, we get to see one of those plays tonight.
RB: Trent Richardson – You guys remember Trent right? The former first-round pick has fallen very far during his NFL career. He needs a good showing tonight to prove to the Raiders he is even worthy of making the team. With Roy Helu hurt and Latavius Murray playing limited time, Richardson should get that chance tonight.
WR: Seth Roberts – Not only does he have a solid first name, but Seth Roberts is also a great pick. Roberts spent last season on the practice squad, but has worked his way into first-team reps during training camp. He’s making a solid impression, but has an uphill battle ahead to earn a roster spot in a deep, competitive position group. There’s only one spot open, and Roberts has to fend off others with a solid preseason performance.
TE: Gabe Holmes – The Raiders should be down a few tight ends tonight. Lee Smith likely won’t play with injury, and it’s uncertain whether University of Miami rookie Clive Walford will suit up after just two days of practice since returning from a hamstring injury. Mychal Rivera should work with the first unit, but a bunch of reps will be left for Holmes, an undrafted rookie who has been active this camp. His fight for a roster spot or practice-squad placement starts tonight.
Denver at Seattle
Denver
QB: Brock Osweiler – As I mentioned above, when you play behind a Manning, your regular season role is just mop-up duty. The good news for Brock Osweiler is that Peyton Manning will not play at all tonight. That should give Osweiler at least the entire first half to stake his claim to the backup QB spot. He will also be doing it against a Seattle defense missing the entire “Legion of Boom.” Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Jeremy Lane, and Richard Sherman will not play tonight. Osweiler is right up there with Nassib for top QB on this slate.
RB: Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, and Juwan Thompson – We are likely to see C.J. Anderson for one series with the starters. After that, the three-way battle for backup RB should heat up. I think the carries will be split pretty evenly here so this is a bit of a guessing game on which one will get a touchdown or bust a long run.
WR: Jordan Taylor – Taylor has been having a great Training Camp thus far. The 6’5” receiver is a deep threat and I think we could see him haul in a few deep bombs from Brock Osweiler. Also consider: Jordan Norwood, Cody Latimer
TE: Joe Don Duncan – According to Scott Payne of SB Nation, Duncan, a fullback/tight end, “is already a fan favorite, and his popularity could grow if he has a good game tonight. Whether it’s a big block, a touchdown, or a hit on special teams. He figures to get plenty of reps.”
Seattle
QB: Tarvaris Jackson – Russell Wilson is only expected to play about a series. After that, he will turn it over to Tarvaris Jackson and R.J. Archer. Of the two, Jackson is the better play. He hasn’t played many meaningful reps over the last few years so getting some game action is important for him.
RB: Christine Michael – Marshawn Lynch isn’t expected to play tonight. While Robert Turbin should draw the start, Christine Michael has a lot more upside. Michael is probably my favorite play at RB. He was great last preseason and I expect similar production this year. Also consider: Robert Turbin, Thomas Rawls
WR: Kasen Williams – According to the Seattle Times, the “battle for the final spots at WR has gotten more competitive” — one player emerging of late has been Kasen Williams, the former University of Washington and Skyline High School standout who tied for the team lead in last week’s scrimmage with four receptions. He could get a leg up on the other young receivers with a strong performance against the Broncos.” Also consider: Chris Matthews
TE: Anthony McCoy – After missing the past two seasons with an achilles injury, McCoy is looking at possibly has last shot in the NFL. He is in a tight battle with Cooper Helfet for the last TE spot. Both of them are in play but I like McCoy slightly better. Also consider: Cooper Helfet