NFL Preseason: Friday, August 19th
Greetings Grinders! The NFL Preseason continues tonight with a smaller-than-normal three-game slate. If you haven’t been following my articles, I’ll give a quick breakdown of what we are looking for in tonight’s matchups. We are expecting to see the starters play about one quarter while backups will play possibly a little more than a quarter and third-string or worse players will come in for mop-up duty. By looking at snap counts and targets from last week, we can get an idea of who will play tonight and what kind of production to expect.
In my analysis below, I will mention the snap counts for several players. I’ve scraped this data from several sources on the internet. If you would like to see the same data I used to write this article, click on this link. It will open up a Google document that has targets, snaps, and stats for everyone in the DraftKings player pool tonight. Feel free to make your own copy to filter, sort, or make notes.
With tonight being a small slate, I’m advising caution. Based on the sheet linked above, if tonight’s players all scored the exact same as last week the perfect lineup (minus defense) would have scored 84 DK points. You can probably win a GPP with 75 points and 50 will get you a minimum-cash. The margins are going to be super small with a limited number of players hitting value. I’ve tried to highlight some of the best options from each team below but you can obviously play anyone else as long as you verify they are not sitting out. Enough with the intro though, Let’s get down to business!
Jets at Redskins
Jets
Quarterback:
Depth Chart: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith, Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg
Top Target: Coach Todd Bowles has not revealed the quarterback rotation for the Jets’ second preseason game Friday night at Washington, but all indications are that rookie Christian Hackenberg will see some playing time. Hackenberg did not see a single snap last week as the Jets only ran 58 offensive plays. Based on the uncertainty here and a potential four-way split, you really can’t use a Jets QB on this slate.
Running Back:
Depth Chart: Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, Romar Morris, Khiry Robinson, Lache Seastrunk, Dominique Williams, Terry Williams, Antone Smith
Top Target: Last week, the Jets backfield was riddled by injuries. Only Powell, Morris, and D. Williams played and Williams suffered a concussion after just 10 snaps. That left Romar Morris with 38 snaps which certainly won’t happen again. Matt Forte returned to practice this week and there is a slim chance he plays tonight. We should also see Khiry Robinson return and we could also see two players signed off the street this week (Seastrunk and Smith) pick up some carries. As crowded as this situation looks, I’ll be looking elsewhere in cash games but in a GPP you could interest me in Khiry Robinson strictly for the possibility of some goal line carries.
Wide Receiver:
Depth Chart: Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Kenbrell Thompkins, Quincy Enunwa, Kyle Williams, Chandler Worthy, Jalin Marshall, Jeremy Ross, Robby Anderson, Devin Smith, Charone Peake
Top Target: Last week, the Jets used seven different WRs who saw anywhere from 8 to 32 snaps. Things will probably be even more bunched up this week with starters like Brandon Marshall picking up a few more snaps. Marshall isn’t playable though with a tough matchup against Josh Norman. The one name that does interest me is rookie Jalin Marshall. He played 26 snaps and saw four targets. He also had a 75 yard kickoff return that nearly went for a touchdown.
Tight End:
Depth Chart: Kellen Davis, Jace Amaro, Zach Sudfeld, Brandon Bostick, Wes Saxton, Jason Vander Laan
Top Target: All preseason long we’ve heard that Jace Amaro has a chance to overtake Kellen Davis as the Jets number one TE. If he’s ever going to do that, he needs to show something on the field. The Jets only played three TEs last week, but Amaro was the one who had both the highest snap total and target total.
Redskins
Quarterback:
Depth Chart: Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy, Nate Sudfeld
Update: Cousins will not play tonight. This makes Colt McCoy the second best option behind Dak Prescott
Top Target: Last week, the Redskins QB snap counts went Cousins (8), McCoy (19), Sudfeld (35). This week, Cousins and the starters should play the first quarter while McCoy will play some in the second and maybe third quarter. That means Sudfeld’s snaps will come down drastically. The guy you want here is Colt McCoy who needs to play better than he did last week. McCoy went 7/11 for 53 yards and 2.92 DK points.
Running Back:
Depth Chart: Matt Jones, Chris Thompson, Keith Marshall, Mack Brown, Rob Kelley, Kelsey Young, Joe Kerridge
Top Target: The Redskins have emphasized their running game this week in practice after Jones and Thompson combined for zero yards on eight carries last week. Improvement will be a tough task against a solid Jets offensive line though. Even with Jones expected to get seven carries or so I would look to one of the backups. The name that keeps popping up is Rob Kelley who outplayed Brown and Marshall last week. Kelley finished with 7/40/1 on just 18 snaps.
Wide Receiver:
Depth Chart: Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder, Rashad Ross, Maurice Harris, Ryan Grant, Jarvis Turner, Reggie Diggs, Valdez Showers, Kendal Thompson, Dez Stewart, T.J. Thorpe, Josh Doctson (PUP)
Top Target: Jamison Crowder will return tonight and should play with the starters. The snaps Crowder will get should come out of the 25 that Ryan Grant saw last week. I won’t be playing any Redskins starters tonight as I look to avoid Darrelle Revis and the Jets starting secondary. I’m not scared of the backups though, which means Rashad Ross is in consideration. He played an absurd 73% of Washington’s snaps last week. He caught four of five targets for 49 yards.
Tight End:
Depth Chart: Jordan Reed (O), Vernon Davis, Niles Paul, Logan Paulsen, Marcel Jensen, Derek Carrier (PUP)
Top Target: Jordan Reed should return tonight from a thumb injury. Even though he’s a starter, I would target him over Davis, Paul and Paulsen. Washington uses Paul and Paulsen mostly as blocking TEs and we need receptions on DK. That’s why I’d stick to just the Big Two in Reed and maybe Davis (who dropped a TD last week).
Update: Jordan Reed is out.
Dolphins at Cowboys
Dolphins
Quarterback:
Depth Chart: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Brandon Doughty, Zac Dysert
Top Target: Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill has been bothered by illness for the past week or so. He hasn’t taken a rest day though because the Dolphins offense has been out of sync and they need all the work they can get. When asked about playing time tonight Coach Gase said, ““I’m not setting anything, We’re playing and then whenever I feel like taking them out, I’ll take them out.” From a DFS perspective that screams stay away. If the Dolphins go three-and-out on their first couple of drives the starters could play well into the second quarter or even the entire first half. The opposite could also be true. If Tannehill is effective he could lead a couple of long drives and get an early hook.
Running Back:
Depth Chart: Arian Foster, Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams, Kenyan Drake, Daniel Thomas, Isaiah Pead
Top Target: Last week, the Dolphins split their playing time at RB evenly between the backups. Williams, Thomas and Pead played 21, 20 and 20 snaps respectively. Jay Ajayi started the game but he played only seven snaps. The other thing to factor in here is that Arian Foster will make his Miami debut tonight. As much as I love Arian Foster, I can’t recommend him in a preseason game coming off an achilles injury. My guess is that Foster and Ajayi split the first 20 carries and then Williams, Thomas and Pead split the remaining 40 or so snaps. That’s not enough to use any of them unless you think you can predict who gets a touchdown.
Wide Receiver:
Depth Chart: DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, Leonte Carroo, Matt Hazel, Griff Whalen, Rashawn Scott, Brandon Shippen, AJ Cruz, Jakeem Grant
Top Targets: Based on Gase’s comments about the first team offense, there is some merit to taking a shot on a guy like Jarvis Landry or Kenny Stills tonight. Either would just need a few catches to hit value and they could certainly do that in less than a quarter. I would obviously prefer Landry as he was a PPR monster last year while Stills is more of a deep threat. If you want to target opportunity, you should look at Leonte Carroo who played 75% of the snaps last week but did see just three targets. The real hero though was Jakeem Grant who played just 12 offensive snaps but had four catches on five targets for 68 yards. Grant also contributes in the return game as well.
Tight End:
Depth Chart: Jordan Cameron, Dion Sims, MarQueis Gray, Dominique Jones, Thomas Duarte, Gabe Hughes
Top Target: The Dolphins offensive coordinator made a point to emphasize this week that they need more big plays from their Tight Ends. Looking at tonight’s matchup, linebacker is a bit of a weakness for the Cowboys. I would expect Jordan Cameron and Dion Sims to be able to exploit that weakness. Even though Cameron is just returning to action he’s the one I prefer.
Cowboys
Quarterback:
Depth Chart: Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Jameill Showers, Kellen Moore
Top Target: Last week, Dak Prescott played 54% of the Cowboys offensive snaps. He looked impressive putting up 14.86 DK points. That was behind the Cowboys starting offensive line and with Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams for one series. We can expect Tony Romo to start tonight and play the first series. After Romo exits, we will see Prescott for the rest of the first, the entire second, and then maybe some of the third as the Cowboys want to see how he reacts to halftime adjustments. Prescott is the top option on the board based on playing time plus the uncertainty surrounding other options.
Running Back:
Depth Chart: Ezekiel Elliott (O), Darren McFadden (O), Alfred Morris, Darius Jackson, Lance Dunbar (O)
Top Target: I wonder if anyone will notice if I just copy and paste what I said last week. Ezekiel Elliott is out, Darren McFadden is out, Lance Dunbar is out and Alfred Morris will mainly just play with the starters. That should leave Darius Jackson all the carries he can handle. When he needs a breather, FB Rod Smith will see some carries but it should mostly be the Jackson show after Morris exits. It doesn’t matter whether you are talking about cash or GPP you can’t fade Jackson when he’s looking at 60% of the offensive snaps tonight.
Wide Receiver:
Depth Chart: Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, Brice Butler, Cole Beasley, Devin Street, Lucky Whitehead, Andy Jones, Vince Mayle, Rodney Smith, Richard Mullaney
Top Target: Unlike RB above, it isn’t easy to figure out which Cowboys WR to play. Last week, the Cowboys used 10 different WRs who all played 10-21 snaps. Surprisingly, the top two scores were Dez Bryant and Terrence Williams who each caught a TD pass. Even though I’ll have plenty of Prescott tonight, I’m not handcuffing him with a Dallas WR. There’s just no way to predict targets and snaps here.
Tight End:
Depth Chart: Jason Witten, Gavin Escobar, Austin Traylor, Geoff Swaim, James Hanna (PUP), Rico Gathers
Top Target: Things were a lot easier last week when the Cowboys just used three TEs. Swaim played 42 snaps, Traylor played 24 and Gathers played two. The Cowboys are still trying to ease Gavin Escobar back and Jason Witten shouldn’t play much. That leaves Geoff Swaim as our main target here again. He only saw three targets last week but he’s been a favorite check-down option for Prescott in camp.
Cardinals at Chargers
Cardinals
Quarterback:
Depth Chart: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Matt Barkley, Jake Coker
Top Target: The Cardinals used their game last week to get a good long look at Matt Barkley. He played 57% of the offensive snaps but was less than impressive going 8/24 for 121 yards and an interception. The Cardinals know what they have in Drew Stanton. He’ll be the team’s backup for sure. He still needs some preseason work and he’ll surely get some tonight. The snaps will be split way too evenly for my taste. We could see something like Palmer (15), Stanton (15), Barkley (15), Coker (10). Unless the Cardinals clearly state how much each QB will play, you’ll be better off with Prescott as your QB tonight.
Running Back:
Depth Chart: David Johnson, Chris Johnson, Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor, Kerwynn Williams, Elijhaa Penny
Top Target: The good news here is that the Cardinals backfield ran for 168 yards on 34 carries last week. The bad news is that all six of the players listed on the depth chart above contributed to that. Elijhaa Penny saw the most carries with 15 but that is because it was the first preseason game. We should see more of Johnson and Johnson this week as well as Ellington. This is another situation where you simply have to guess who will get a TD and hope you are right.
Wide Receiver:
Depth Chart: Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Jaron Brown, John Brown, Chris Hubert, J.J. Nelson, Brittan Golden, Jaxon Shipley, Amir Carlisle, Franky Okafor
Top Target: The Cardinals used nine different receivers last week. I’m not going to list out the snap counts but the guys on the back-end of the roster that barely played can be ruled out tonight. The top four are also pretty set here. You could play any of them if you would like, but keep your expectations low. That leaves us with our three main targets in Chris Hubert, Jaxon Shipley and J.J. Nelson. Shipley and Hubert played over 60% of last week’s snaps and Nelson played 43%. The really surprising number was Shipley seeing ten targets while Nelson and Hubert saw six and four respectively.
Tight End:
Depth Chart: Darren Fells, Jermaine Gresham, Troy Niklas, Ifeanyi Momah, Gerald Christian, Hakeem Valles
Top Target: Troy Niklas ran with the starters this week in practice. The second-round pick was impressive last week with 2 catches for 44 yards and was open for a touchdown on a third that was overthrown. Ifeanyi Momah was also impressive with 3 catches for 33 yards but Niklas is the guy you want here.
San Diego
Quarterback:
Depth Chart: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Zach Mettenberger, Mike Bercovici
Top Target: I’m not sure how we ended up with seemingly every team that has four quarterbacks playing on the same slate. With Prescott playing nearly a half, it’s almost impossible to target any other QB. Last week, the Chargers QB snaps went: Rivers (8), Clemens (27), Mettenberger (16), Bercovici (16). If Rivers’ snaps go up to around 20 I would guess one of Mettenberger/Bercovici gets squeezed out. Either way, there aren’t enough snaps here to make anyone a good option.
Running Back:
Depth Chart: Melvin Gordon, Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver, Dreamius Smith, Kenneth Farrow
Top Target: Last week, Melvin Gordon put up one of the most insane DK scores I have ever seen in limited time. He played just five offensive snaps but managed to pick up 13 DK points. Gordon is coming off an injury from last season and he seems unlikely to duplicate that performance even with added snaps this week. Danny Woodhead is also coming off an injury and played just three snaps last week. If Woodhead were in line for more snaps, he would be in play because of his PPR value. He’s not though, so that really just leaves us with Kenneth Farrow who played 59% of the snaps last week. Farrow had 11 carries and was also targeted four times. Even though both of those numbers will come down, he’s an option tonight as RB is very thin on this slate.
Wide Receiver:
Depth Chart: Travis Benjamin, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Dontrelle Inman, James Jones, Javontee Herndon, Isaiah Burse, Torrence Allen, Deandre Reaves, Rasheed Bailey
Top Target: We can’t read too much into San Diego’s WR snap count from last week as several players were out due to injury. San Diego had six WRs play between 10 and 30 snaps. There aren’t a lot of options on this slate though so I’ll mention a few names here. Keenan Allen has been matched up with Patrick Peterson in practice but he’s owned that matchup all week. I could see using Allen on a few GPP teams. Offseason acquisition Travis Benjamin will also get his first reps as a Charger tonight and he will look to get in sync with Rivers. The name I’m most excited about though is Tyrell Williams who was scratched last week with soreness in his leg. As long as he’s a go, Williams will play a decent amount with the second and third teams. We can also consider James Jones who the Chargers believe will be a possession receiver this year. He saw six targets last week.
Tight End:
Depth Chart: Antonio Gates, Sean McGrath, Jeff Cumberland, Hunter Henry, Tim Semisch, Asante Cleveland, Matt Weiser
Top Target: The guy to target here is again someone that I liked last week. Hunter Henry played 34% of offensive snaps last week and picked up three catches for 34 yards on four targets. He’s a strong play again this week. In fact I would say that I’ll basically just have a mixture of Swaim, Henry, and Niklas at TE tonight.
That should do it for this week’s slate. I’ll caution again that you should focus mostly on GPPs tonight and possibly play a smaller portion of your bankroll than usual. The difference between the GPP winning score and the cash line isn’t going to be huge. Missing out on a player who does well or picking the wrong defense could sink you.
If you have any questions, come join me in the NFL Preseason: Week 2 forum thread.