NFL Preseason: Friday, August 26th
Greetings fellow Grinders! NFL Preseason continues tonight with five games. With this being each team’s third game, we should see most teams play their starters for close to a half. This game is what you will hear referred to as the “dress rehearsal.” We shouldn’t see any teams using their expected Week 1 starters next week, so this is the last chance to fine tine offensive and defensive schemes. In addition to preparing for Week 1, teams also have to trim their roster from 90 players to 75 after this week’s games. Players that are “on the bubble” could see extended time tonight and may be worth a look.
As always, I’m trying to cover the best options for each team. I can’t cover every single option though. If you like a player—and have confirmed that he is playing enough snaps—feel free to target him. In the paragraphs below, I’ll be referring to snap count and target data from the previous two games. Here is a copy of the spreadsheet where I compiled that data. Without further ado, let’s get right into the first game.
New England at Carolina
New England
Quarterback:
Top Target: Tom Brady has yet to take a snap this preseason. He was set to start last week’s game against the Bears until he cut his finger with a pair of scissors. It doesn’t really matter whether Brady plays or not though. He is suspended for the first four games of the season. Brady wants to play but has reportedly been told that Jimmy Garoppolo will get the start in order to prepare for Week 1. With Jimmy getting close to equal playing time as other starters, I think he’s an easy avoid in this matchup against the Panthers.
Update: Tom Brady is now expected to play. It isn’t yet clear how snaps will be split but this really doesn’t change anything. It just downgrades Garoppolo even more.
Running Back:
Top Target: Things got very interesting in the New England backfield this past weekend. Dion Lewis needs another surgery on his knee which should keep him out 8-10 weeks. LeGarrette Blount likely locked up his role as the team’s starter with 11 carries for 69 yards and a TD last week. My guess is that Blount will see his usual role in the first half which should entail the bulk of first and second down work along with any goal line work. It appears James White is poised to take over Lewis’ role as the third-down back. What I’m interested in here though is Tyler Gaffney and DJ Foster battling to win a roster spot. Gaffney flashed his skills against the Saints with a 44-yard touchdown but if you take that away, he’s otherwise only averaged 2.68 yards per carry. DJ Foster on the other hand has not played this preseason. The Patriots obviously feel confident with what they have at RB though because they cut Donald Brown this week.
The way I look at this situation is that you either target Blount for his first half carries and goal line work, or you target Gaffney for his expected volume in the second half. Foster is just a GPP flyer as it is unknown how many snaps he will get but I am excited about his chances if he gets in.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: The Patriots made the choice to cut Nate Washington ahead of next week’s deadline. That was presumably done because they already know that he won’t make the team. I’m expecting Julian Edelman to see his first action but his snaps could end up being limited. My interest in the Patriots WRs is between Keshawn Martin, DeAndre Carter, Aaron Dobson, and Chris Hogan. Martin will see his first action this week while Carter, Hogan, and Dobson have five, five, and six targets in the previous two games. This situation is crowded enough that I’ll probably just avoid it entirely though.
Tight End:
Top Target: As I’ve mentioned before, Rob Gronkowski hasn’t played a preseason game since 2012. That’s actually left the Patriots a little thin at TE as they only have six on the roster and Bryce Williams has been injured. Gronkowski is highly doubtful again but Bryce Williams should return this week. The only two I’m targeting here are Martellus Bennett—who has six targets in 55 snaps—and AJ Derby who is the third-highest scoring WR this preseason (even though he’s a TE) with 26.2 DK points. Derby and Bennett have actually played almost the same number of snaps this preseason. You have to give the edge here to Derby as he’s nominally in a battle for a roster spot with Clay Harbor.
Carolina
Quarterback:
Top Target: Cam Newton has played just 31 snaps so far this preseason. In them he’s gone 13/18 for 198 yards and a TD. That’s good for 12.12 DK points. While we can’t expect the regular season Cam Newton who will get you 50+ rushing yards, I do like Cam’s chances to top 10 DK points here playing a whole half.
Running Back:
Top Target: The Panthers RBs have combined this preseason for 39 carries for 91 yards. It’s hard to get excited about any of the backups when they’ve yet to prove anything. Brandon Wegher has seen the heaviest volume at 17 carries but he has just 34 yards. He’s in a battle for the fourth RB spot with Cameron Artis-Payne. You could always look to the starter here in Jonathan Stewart but he should stay at 20 snaps or less tonight and that’s not enough to count on production. I’ll be looking elsewhere for a RB tonight.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: The Panthers have a massive list of names at WR. Including TEs, they have 14 different players who have been targeted through two games. Some of you may be wondering about Kelvin Benjamin here. Yes, he’s a starter, but his goal for the preseason was to play 30-35 snaps and he’s already at 16. He’s played about eight snaps in each game so far. He might see 16 more snaps tonight. The top target here is Devin Funchess. Even though he’s only played 23 snaps in two games, Funchess has scored 11.9DK points on five targets. I’m expecting Funchess to play most of the first half and come close to matching those five targets in this game alone.
Tight End:
Top Target: Greg Olsen sat out last week with a back injury. He says he could have played if needed though. If you plan to use Olsen tonight, make sure to verify that he is active when the team announces inactives 90 minutes prior to kickoff. If Olsen doesn’t go, I’m not interested in Braxton Deaver, Scott Simonson or Beau Sandland. I’ll look elsewhere.
Buffalo at Washington
Buffalo
Quarterback:
Top Target: With EJ Manuel and Cardale Jones splitting the second half, the easy pick here is Tyrod Taylor. He should play the entire first half. Taylor is 9/13 for 139 yards and a TD in just 25 snaps this preseason. Similar to Cam Newton, Taylor provides a nice floor with his running ability but we can’t count on that in preseason. The matchup against Washington’s new look D is somewhat tough so Taylor is basically a middle-of-the-pack option for me.
Running Back:
Top Target: The Bills are currently carrying six RBs on their roster. That number is actually down one as they cut Karlos Williams this week. Mostly, I’m only excited about starter LeSean McCoy. In just 21 snaps this preseason McCoy has racked up 17.9 DK points. Most of that is because he’s caught 5 passes for 60 yards. McCoy’s pass-catching ability makes him a very safe option.
Update: LeSean MccCoy is likely to sit and Mike Gillislee is in concussion protocol. This vaults Jonathan Williams to my top play at RB
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: The Bills are expecting Sammy Watkins to play for the first time this preseason but he’s unlikely to play extended time. He also faces the possibility of being matched up with Josh Norman. The combination of those two is enough to keep me away. Other than Watkins, we should see Robert Woods, Greg Salas, and Greg Little receive time with the starters.
Tight End:
Top Target: Charles Clay has just one catch this preseason but it was a 59 yard bomb. Clay’s playing time went from zero snaps week one, to 18 snaps last week which is roughly a quarter. It should bump up to about 30 snaps tonight as the starters play the first half. Clay is a decent option at TE tonight.
Update: Charles Clay is not expected to play.
Washington
Quarterback:
Top Target: Kirk Cousins will get his first opportunity to play with all three of DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed tonight. Cousins is a bit of an unknown and he has only played eight snaps so far this preseason. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Cousins played well into the third quarter in this game. By well into the third quarter, I mean one or possibly two drives. Cousins is a good option tonight even against a pretty decent Buffalo secondary.
Running Back:
Top target: Washington’s RB situation is hands down the most interesting decision on this slate. With Matt Jones and Chris Thompson out, the Redskins will start undrafted rookie Rob Kelley. He’ll be followed by Keith Marshall and Mack Brown. I would absolutely love Kelley except he’s not near as talented as other “starting RBs.” He also has a ridiculously tough matchup against the Bills’ front seven. Normally, that would lead me to Keith Marshall but he has just 25 yards on 15 carries. Both Marshall and Kelley are in consideration for GPPs but not quite cash-game options because of their matchup.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: With DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon returning tonight, be sure to downgrade your outlook for Rashad Ross. While Ross will still see some playing time, it won’t be anywhere near the 73% and 41% that he played in the first two games. There will still be some snaps to be had with Jamison Crowder out, but Ross doesn’t play all that much at slot WR. Those snaps should go to Ryan Grant instead. Mostly, I would stick to DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon here. The Redskins will probably do most of their passing in the first half and then use the second to get a look at their RBs.
Tight End:
Top Target: As I mentioned above, Jordan Reed will see his first preseason action tonight. If you played NFL DFS last season, you already know that Reed is one of Kirk Cousins favorite targets. Since there is no salary cap anyways, why not “pay up” to $3500 to get Jordan Reed?
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Cleveland
Quarterback:
Top Target: Even in limited playing time, Robert Griffin is Cleveland’s top scoring QB this preseason. He’s 10/16 for 163 yards and two TDs in just 30 snaps. He’s obviously the only option we would consider here. I am excited about RG3’s chances tonight though. He’s actually looked like the good version of RG3 from the past and he’ll get his first chance to play with former Baylor teammate Josh Gordon.
Running Back:
Top Target: If you just blindly look at the preseason stats for Cleveland’s RBs it’s hard to even tell who the starter here is. Cleveland has only used four RBs but they combined to carry the ball 28 times for 133 yards. Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell should get the first half carries while Raheem Mostert and Terrell Watson will split the second half. None are anything more than a GPP long shot though.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: I’m probably a little too excited for Josh Gordon to make his return to the NFL tonight. Gordon still has to serve a four-game suspension this season but he’s allowed to play tonight. The Browns will line up rookie Corey Coleman (also making his debut) and Josh Gordon next to preseason phenom Terrell Pryor. I’m not going any deeper than Pryor, Coleman, or Gordon as the backup QBs have not moved the ball at all this preseason.
Tight End:
Top Target: When you talk about the Cleveland offense, you definitely can’t leave out Gary Barnidge. Similar to what I said with Jordan Reed, there’s no salary cap tonight so why not get a TE who has proven they can produce?
Tampa Bay
Quarterback:
Top Target: Jameis Winston has been less than stellar this preseason going 10/19 for 125 yards and two TDs. We don’t really care about how he looked though. We just want the fantasy points, of which he scored 13.5 in 51 snaps. That’s not exactly a great rate, but Cleveland hasn’t shut anyone down this preseason. They allowed 17 points to Green Bay and 24 to Atlanta. You don’t have to play Jameis Winston tonight but there’s also nothing that says you can’t.
Running Back:
Top Target: Last week, Doug Martin sat out with a rib injury. That means he’s only played 13 snaps this preseason. We should get our first extended look at him tonight. You can play any starting RB you want on this slate. I tend to prefer guys that have some pass-catching ability though. For that reason, I’ll probably own more of Charles Sims tonight that I will of Doug Martin. Sims is the Bucs’ third-down back and sees more work in the passing game.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: Similar to how I’ve felt in other games, I like to target WRs who have the ability to produce in limited playing time. That pretty much just leads me to Mike Evans. He has been targeted 11 times in the 41 snaps he has played. As far as everyone else, I have minimal interest in Vincent Jackson but the Buccaneers have targeted 18 different players including TEs. There just aren’t enough guaranteed targets to use anyone beyond the starters here.
Tight End:
Top Target: The theme of this preseason has been me touting Austin Seferian-Jenkins and it sort of working out. Jenkins has been “demoted” to second-string which has been a huge boost to his production. He’s caught all five of his targets for 46 yards. As long as he keeps playing against backups I’ll continue to like Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
Pittsburgh at New Orleans
Pittsburgh
Quarterback:
Top Target: Ben Roethlisberger was held out of the first two preseason games as the Steelers have used extra caution with their veterans this preseason. Tonight will be the only chance we get to see Roethlisberger until Week 1. The matchup couldn’t be any better though against the last season’s worst passing defense. Big Ben is one of the top options tonight unless we hear something about his snaps being limited. If we do, I’ll be sure to update you.
Running Back:
Top Target: Both Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams will also be making their preseason debuts tonight. If we were getting a half game of regular season Le’Veon Bell tonight he would be an absolute must-play. That is not likely to be the case. Bell is suspended for the first three games of the season and DeAngelo Williams also needs some work with the starters. With that said, we saw what Arian Foster did last night in limited time (11DK points). Bell could always come out and catch 2-3 passes for 25 yards and sneak in a for a TD.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: Unlike with Le’Veon Bell, we might get a half of regular season Antonio Brown tonight. The difference here is that Brown isn’t coming off an injury. He needs some game action with Big Ben at QB. If you use Brown tonight and he gets you 3 catches for 35 yards that should be plenty. There’s always the chance that he could do quite a bit more than that though. I’ll have quite a few teams anchored by a high-volume WR. On many of those, Brown will be that guy. Outside of Brown, I have interest in Eli Rogers and Sammie Coates who are battling with Darius Heyward-Bey to fill “(player-popup)Martavis Bryant”:/players/martavis-bryant-18067’s role as he serves his suspension this season.
Tight End:
Top Target: Ladarius Green is still on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list which gives Jesse James yet another opportunity to play extended time tonight. Really though, are you going to play Jesse James when you could have Barnidge, Reed, Bennett or Derby for the same price? I’m not.
New Orleans
Quarterback:
Top Target: Reports out of New Orleans are that Drew Brees is having one of his best camps ever. Then again, there’s pretty much a report out there saying the same thing about every NFL player. I’m thinking we will want some Drew Brees exposure tonight just in case it is true though. The first half of this game should be played at a decent pace and Brees showed last season what he is capable of in a shootout.
Running Back:
Top Target: The Saints have used eight different RBs this preseason which is enough to make me interested only in the starters. Mark Ingram should see the bulk of the first-team work except for third downs where we should see Spiller. I would target Ingram for his potential carrying the ball and Spiller for his pass-catching ability. I wouldn’t go overboard on Spiller though. He only played 6 and 13 snaps the past two games. I can’t see him getting more than 15-20 tonight.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: If I’m so excited about Drew Brees, then I have to have a positive outlook for his WRs, right? That’s true for the most part. I don’t mind Brandon Coleman and Willie Snead but they aren’t at the top of my list. Brandin Cooks is always a threat with the ball in his hands, but he missed last week which always gives me concern that he’ll play a full half. As long as we hear he is, I like Cooks just fine. The guy I love here though is Michael Thomas. He’s caught five of eight targets for 72 yards this preseason while playing 39% and 46% of the snaps. He was billed as the most NFL-ready rookie in the draft and so far he’s lived up to the hype. I’m excited to see what he can do with Brees throwing him the ball tonight.
Tight End:
Top Target: I only have mild interest here in Coby Fleener and Josh Hill. As I’ve mentioned already, points are hard to come by at TE. I’m sticking with the proven options tonight since playing time is close to equal. Neither of these guys are a proven option.
Green Bay at San Francisco
San Francisco
Quarterback:
Top Target: Finally, we get to my favorite game of the night. Before I can get to the good options, I’m going to have to labor through the 49ers side of the ball. As I’ve mentioned before, Chip Kelly likes to run his fast-paced offense in preseason. This not only leads to his team running more plays but also the opponent. Any game that Chip Kelly is coaching is a relative gold mine. For example, last week the Broncos ran 88 offensive plays while the 49ers ran 61. The week before, the Texans ran 64 plays while the 49ers ran 78. Picking the right players in this game will be important.
Colin Kaepernick has yet to play this preseason due to a sore shoulder. He’s on track to make his debut but it is unknown whether he or Gabbert will start. I’m expecting both to work with the first-team offense which will bleed into the third quarter. Neither is a top target for me though considering the other QB options tonight.
Running Back:
Top Target: As I said above, Chip Kelly coached games are a goldmine of opportunity. Many incorrectly assume Chip’s offense is all about the air attack. That’s untrue though. My interest here is in Carlos Hyde and Mike Davis. Hyde has 11 carries for 55 yards and a TD so far this preseason. He should run with the first team offense though he will lose some snaps to Shaun Draughn. Mike Davis on the other hand should see some of the second-half work. He has 10 carries for 98 yards this preseason. He’s also added four receptions for 18 yards.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: I wish I had something more to give you here. The 49ers will be auditioning two QBs for their starting position. There should be plenty of targets to go around but I’m unsure who will get them. The easiest thing to do is list the top-targeted options so far. Jerome Simpson has 7, Vance McDonald (TE) has 6, DeAndrew White has 6, Garrett Celek (TE) has 6, and everyone else has 5 or less. That mostly tells me I want to target Simpson and the TEs here.
Tight End:
Top Target: With several big name TEs available tonight, you should be able to get Vance McDonald at low ownership. He’s only played 19 snaps in two games but has five catches for 92 yards and a TD. He’s a strong option tonight as his snaps should increase to 30 or more playing with the starters.
Green Bay
Quarterback:
Top Target: I did some extra digging for you on Aaron Rodgers because I’m trying to determine if he’s the top play or a huge trap. As you know, Aaron Rodgers has yet to play this preseason and he won’t play next week. He considers these reps meaningless for himself but they are valuable for evaluating his teammates. Rodgers will start but we don’t have any firm information on how long he will play. In this case, we need to look back at past preseasons.
In 2008 Rodgers played 93 snaps, in 2009 he played 77 snaps, in 2010 78 snaps, in 2011 75 snaps, and 79 snaps in 2012. Then things started trending down. He played 45 snaps in 2013, 69 snaps in 2014, and 47 snaps last preseason. With Rodgers playing zero snaps thus far, we obviously know he isn’t playing 47 snaps tonight. Let’s take a look at the third game last preseason. The Packers faced Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia Eagles in that game. Rodgers didn’t play a single snap but the Packers were being extra careful after losing Jordy Nelson. Rodgers played 33 snaps the week prior and 14 snaps prior to that. My educated guess says that we see Rodgers for about 30 snaps tonight. Not because he needs the work but because his teammates need to build chemistry with him.
Running Back:
Top Target: Remember when I said above there is value in facing Chip Kelly? Most of that value goes to the opposing RB who gets the second half carries. We’ll see Eddie Lacy and James Starks in the first half and they are fine options. The two players I have the most interest in though are John Crockett and Brandon Burks. Crockett has made the most of his 48 snaps this preseason scoring 27.7DK points. He’s the better option while Burks is just a deep GPP flyer.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: The Big reason that Rodgers needs to play tonight is to help settle the battle for third WR. Ty Montgomery, Davante Adams, and Jared Abbrederis all have a shot at winning the job. When Rodgers is in the game, he should be looking to these three. I like them in the order listed.
Tight End:
Top Target: Jared Cook – The Packers’ most notable free-agent addition in recent years will be getting his first in-game snaps with QB Aaron Rodgers, for however long the first unit plays. Cook has been targeted often by Rodgers in practice and is definitely in consideration at TE.
That should do it for tonight’s five-game slate. If you have additional questions, come join me in the Preseason Week 3 forum thread. I’ll also be on the RotoGrinders periscope at 6:30 ET to answer your last minute questions. Just follow RotoGrinders on Twitter and you’ll see the periscope link pop up as soon as I go live.