NHL Grind Down: Friday, October 23rd

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-10-26 12:44:02

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres – 07:00 PM EDT

Montreal Canadiens					Buffalo Sabres
			Mike Condon					Robin Lehner
			Record					Record
			50-22					23-51
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.61	2.24	16.50%	83.70%	Team Stats	1.87	3.28	13.40%	75.10%

The Canadiens are rolling to start the season and have already made a statement that they’re the team to beat in the Eastern Conference this season. While they actually struggled against the Sabres a bit last season, they should be able to dominate this game in nearly every aspect. They’ve made fairly easy work of some very tough opponents lately and not grabbing enough exposure to them tonight in cash games could be an expensive mistake. As expected, Max Pacioretty has lead the charge once again this season as he’ll enter tonight’s game with five goals and a pair of assists through the first seven games. He’s joined by Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher on both the top scoring line as well as the #1 power-play unit; making all three players terrific options. While those three are the premier forward targets tonight, the Canadiens forward depth is one of the factors that makes them extremely dangerous this season. Guys like Alexander Semin, Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller, David Desharnais and Tomas Fleischmann have all flashed nice offensive upside in the past. With the Sabres posting the league’s worst penalty kill, both P.K. Subban and the power-play specialist Andre Markov are top tier options on the blue-line. Fade the Canadiens at your own risk.

I’m well aware that this is a much improved Buffalo team, but the Canadiens enter tonight’s game with a perfect 7-0-0 record and have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 23-7 this season. They’re arguably the best team in the league and this is just not the spot you should be looking to roster anyone from Buffalo. Jack Eichel, Evander Kane and Ryan O’Reilly all warrant some GPP consideration simply from a contrarian angle, but i’ll certainly be staying away in cash games. They would see a nice boost if Montreal decides to save Carey Price for Saturday’s game with the Maple Leafs, but it’s not enough to change my opinion, and in fact, would just make Mike Condon an excellent value play in net.

Elite Plays

MON: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov, Carey Price / Mike Condon
BUF: None

Secondary Plays

MON: Lars Eller, Tomas Fleischmann, David Desharnais, Jeff Petry
BUF: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane

Boston Bruins at New York Islanders – 07:30 PM EDT

Boston Bruins					New York Islanders
			Tuukka Rask					Jaroslav Halak
			Record					Record
			41-27					47-28
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.55	2.45	17.80%	82.00%	Team Stats	2.99	2.73	18.70%	78.00%

After missing the playoffs last season, the Bruins got out of the gates very slowly this season. They rebounded with a pair of wins on the road in Colorado and Arizona, but dropped to 2-3-0 with an overtime loss to the Flyers on Wednesday. While their reign of dominance in the Eastern Conference clearly looks to be over, this is still a solid hockey team that figures to be in the playoff mix come early spring. They’ll head to Brooklyn tonight to battle the very dangerous New York Islanders as fairly heavy underdogs. These two teams split their four meetings last season, and with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand looking rejuvenated lately, Boston won’t be a pushover in this one. Bergeron has racked up three goals and added two assists over the last two games and teams up with Marchand and Loui Eriksson to create a mixture of both peskiness and creativity that New York will struggle to deal with all evening. David Krejci no longer has his long time partner-in-crime Milan Lucic on his side, but with four goals and seven assists already (six games) he’s clearly content playing alongside both Jimmy Hayes and David Pastrnak on the Bruins “second” line. One of the Islander’s only weaknesses last season was their penalty kill, so targeting any of the aforementioned guys has merit as all six are slated for healthy minutes on the power-play. On defense, Torey Krug quarterbacks the #1 PP unit and has racked up six assists over the last four games, making him a top tier play on the blue-line. Zdeno Chara may be a shell of his former self, but he still has a cannon for a slapshot and can be used as a disruptive force down-low on the man advantage.

The well-rested Islanders have rattled off four straight victories and look to be a legit contender in the Metropolitan Division. While Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron represent a very tough matchup for John Tavares, they were unable to slow down the Islanders Captain last season as he picked up a pair of goals and dished out two assists in three meetings against them last season. With four goals and give assists through the first six games, Tavares leads a dangerous top line that also includes young talents Anders Lee and Ryan Strome. The Islanders also have a very capable secondary scoring line that actually draws a bit more favorable matchup this evening as the underrated Frans Nielsen centers Josh Bailey and Kyle Okposo. Both Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy log big minutes on the power-play have a knack for jumping into the play offensively. They’re joined by the power-play specialist (at this point in his career at least) Marek Zidlicky as fine defensive options tonight.

Elite Plays

BOS: Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Torey Krug
NYI: John Tavares, Ryan Strome, Johnny Boychuk

Secondary Plays

BOS: Brad Marchand, Loui Eriksson, Jimmy Hayes, David Pastrnak, Zdeno Chara
NYI: Anders Lee, Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen, Nick Leddy, Marek Zidlicky

Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets – 08:00 PM EDT

Tampa Bay Lightning					Winnipeg Jets
			Ben Bishop					Ondrej Pavelec
			Record					Record
			50-24					43-26
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.16	2.51	18.80%	83.70%	Team Stats	2.72	2.49	17.80%	81.80%

The Lightning went to the Music City on Tuesday Night and offensive fireworks ensued which was surprising after a boring 2-1 victory over Buffalo in their previous game. Tampa continues a daunting four game tour to some of the toughest opponents in the Western Conference tonight as they head to Winnipeg to battle the 4-2-0 Jets. No team in the NHL owned more drastic home vs road splits last season than the Lightning (32-8-1 at home vs 18-16-7 on the road) and there are few arenas most hostile than the MTS Centre. While I’ll definitely tread carefully with the Lightning tonight, it’s simply impossible to ignore either of Tampa’s top two forward lines. Defensively, both Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman are very much in play, but ignoring the road woes of the Lightning does seem dangerous here.

With a nice mixture of proven veterans and loads of young talent, the Jets look ready to take another big step forward this season. Former first round pick Mark Scheifele has shown signs of life (three goals and an assist thus far) and if he, along with Mathieu Perreault and Nikolaj Ehlers, are able to provide a reliable secondary scoring option for Paul Maurice, then this team could be dangerous this season. That second line’s success has lightened the load for an underrated, but very dangerous top line of Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler. Wheeler leads the way with three goals and five assists through the first six games, and considering the Lightning’s league worst penalty kill (just 14 for 21) he and his linemates look like nice options here. On defense, Dustin Byfuglien shot volume and aggressiveness, yet alone power-play time, make him an excellent option.

Elite Plays

TAM: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson
WPG: Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien

Secondary Plays

TAM: Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Callahan, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman
WPG: Andrew Ladd, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Tyler Myers

Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames – 09:00 PM EDT

Detroit Red Wings					Calgary Flames
			Jimmy Howard					Jonas Hiller
			Record					Record
			43-25					45-30
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.82	2.57	23.80%	80.90%	Team Stats	2.89	2.60	18.80%	80.60%

After a nice start to the Jeff Blashill era, things have suddenly turned upside-down on the Detroit Red Wings. They fell to the Edmonton Oilers 3-1 on Wednesday night and have now dropped three straight games. Somewhat surprisingly, only the Colorado Avalanche have posted worse puck possession numbers than the Wings this season (45.4 CF%) and it appears they may be headed for some rough patches while they continue to learn their new roles while also waiting for Pavel Datsyuk and Johan Franzen to get back into the lineup. Their tour of Canada continues tonight as they head to Calgary to take on a struggling, but talented, Flames team. Offensively, the Zetterberg, Larkin, Abdelkader has been on fire (and can still be rostered at a very reasonable asking price), but they’ve gotten nothing from their other forward lines. While the top line is definitely the proffered play, the Wings did own the league’s second best power-play last season, which brings several other players into play tonight. Gustav Nyquist has flirted with 30 goals in each of the last two seasons and joins that top line on the wing of Detroit’s #1 power-play. Tomas Tatar and Teemu Pulkkinen are exciting young talents that are emerging as offensive weapons on the second power-play unit. On the blue-line, both Mike Green and Niklas Kronwall log nearly all of the defensive power-play minutes for this team making them fine plays and the young Danny DeKeyser is finally back into the lineup after racking up 31 points in his sophomore campaign last season.

After an impressive season that saw them rack up 97 points and make a push into the second round of the Western Conference playoffs, Bob Hartley can’t be pleased with his team’s ugly 1-5-0 start to the season. Despite a very deep and talented defensive core, the Flames have allowed an average of 4.17 goals against per game this season. While that’s certainly a concern, they’ve also look desperate to find some secondary scoring aside from Johnny Gaudreau top line. WIth that in mind, Coach Hartley took made the brash decision to separate the trio of Gaudreau, Hudler and Monahan despite their consistent production since joining forces, with the hopes that Hudler can get things rolling with Mikael Backlund and Sam Bennett on the second line. The early returns on that decision look negligible as Jiri Hudler looked uninterested (no points and zero shots) against the Capitals, and the Gaudreau, Monahan and now Michael Frolik line was still responsible for both Calgary goals. With Detroit also a fairly small team and also struggling to control the puck, that top line should continue to be a force, but at least for now, those are the only three forwards on my radar from the Flames. On defense, the foursome of Giordano, Hamilton, Russell and Wideman should all put up solid offensive numbers this season, but Dennis Wideman aside, they’ve been awfully slow out of the gates.

Elite Plays

DET: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader
CGY: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton

Secondary Plays

DET: Dylan Larkin, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall
CGY: Jiri Hudler, Michael Frolik, Dennis Wideman, Kris Russell

Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers – 09:00 PM EDT

Washington Capitals					Edmonton Oilers
			Braden Holtby					Ben Scrivens
			Record					Record
			45-26					24-44
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.89	2.43	25.30%	81.20%	Team Stats	2.35	3.37	17.70%	76.70%

A third period comeback secured the Capitals two points in Vancouver last night, and they won’t have much down-time before hitting the ice tonight in Edmonton. Breaking down this team from a fantasy standpoint is pretty cut-and-dry; target Alexander Ovechkin and those that play alongside him. Ovechkin has already tallied five goals and a pair of assists over the first five games and the sniper has scored 50+ goals in back-to-back seasons and his 395 shots on goal last year were easily the highest in the NHL. At even strength, it’s Evgeny Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie that have the luxury of sharing the ice with Ovechkin, making them both nice options today in this above average matchup against the Oilers. Ovechkin’s long time linemate Nicklas Backstrom moves in as the center of the Capitals #1 power-play (that was the league’s best in 2014-15) and Marcus Johansson also sees some playing time alongside Ovechkin on that top power-play unit. On defense, John Carlson has been on fire to start the season (2 goals and 5 assists) and logs big minutes on the point of that #1 power-play unit; he’s an elite option on the blue-line.

The Connor McDavid era in Edmonton didn’t get off to the best start, but the Oilers have now rattled off three straight wins and their young Phenom has scored three goals and added a pair off assists over the last four games. With McDavid already appearing ready for NHL stardom and more than solidifying the Oilers second line, Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should start to see more opportunities and really give this Oilers team a mean one-two offensive punch. The somewhat obvious weakness of this Oilers team comes on the blue-line. Andrej Sekera should help stabilize things, and with three assists already this season, he could be in for a breakout offensive season. Aside from him, the only other appealing defensive option is Justin Schultz, who’s been held scoreless thus far this season but still holds the reigns to the point of the #1 power-play unit and has posted a very solid 92 points through his first 210 NHL games. With no real defensive answer to Alexander Ovechkin, the Oilers will likely be content with keeping playing this game at a quick pace and trying to take advantage of the potentially tired legs of the Capitals. With that said, no team in the NHL has allowed fewer shots on goal per game this season than Washington and beating Braden Holtby is no easy task.

Elite Plays

WAS: Alexander Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson
EDM: Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall

Secondary Plays

WAS: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson, Matt Niskanen
EDM: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Benoit Pouliot, Justin Schultz, Andrej Sekera

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