NHL Grind Down: Thursday, December 10th

by Tom Woollam (elctrceye) Last Updated 2015-12-11 16:40:25

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning – 07:30 PM EST

Ottawa Senators					Tampa Bay Lightning
			Craig Anderson					Ben Bishop
			Record					Record
			15-8-5					13-12-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.11	2.86	22.10%	77.70%	Team Stats	2.32	2.25	16.50%	76.70%

Ottawa continues their four-game road trip fresh off a 4-2 win at Florida Tuesday night. Tampa Bay comes in from concluding their three-game west coast road trip, and if we want to go down narrative street we can say that normally teams are a bit tired when they return home from the west coast. The matchup here may be the Ottawa power play, who has scored power play goals in 12 of their last 14 games while Tampa has given up ten short-handed goals in their last 11 games. Mike Hoffman continues to find the back of the net as he has scored nine goals to go with two assists in his last 8 games, so we can start here. Defenseman Erik Karlsson is always in play but has been on a 2 game dry spell, which would make his high price across the industry a bit less lucrative.

Tampa Bay hasn’t been that great on the power play of late and Ottawa seems disciplined enough to be only allowing only six short-handed goals in their last 14 games. With the Lightning being the home team, we can go full steam ahead and roster Steven Stamkos. With Tyler Johnson already back in the lineup last game and now Ondrej Palat ready to return, head coach John Cooper has inserted both Alex Killorn and Jonathan Drouin on the top line. Both player’s salaries are suppressed throughout the industry as they are very much in play tonight. By the reports out of yesterday’s morning skate it looks like Nikita Kucherov will skate second line and top power-play line, so he will have plenty of opportunity to recreate his two-goal game from six days ago.

Elite Plays

OTT: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson
TB: Steven Stamkos

Secondary Plays

OTT: Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris
TB: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson

Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers – 07:30 PM EST

Washington Capitals					Florida Panthers
			Braden Holtby					Roberto Luongo
			Record					Record
			19-5-2					13-11-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.08	2.19	25.30%	84.00%	Team Stats	2.43	2.46	19.40%	79.80%

The Washington Capitals saw their six-game winning streak snapped Saturday night as the home team Winnipeg Jets fought tooth and nail for the 2-1 overtime win. Washington played the defense that we are used to seeing, but their offense left a bit to be desired. They did get back on the horse Tuesday night as they defeated the Detroit Red Wings on home ice by a score of 3-2. The Capitals have scored 12 power-play goals in their last 12 games and have opened as a -145 favorite on the road. Alexander Ovechkin has three goals and two assists in his last six games and is always in play, but much like Erik Karlsson, his salary may be a bit high for most people’s liking tonight. Nicklas Backstrom is in the midst of a six-game point streak by scoring two goals and assisting on five others while line mate T.J. Oshie has only three goals across that same time period. John Carlson is the defensive play as he skates on the top power play line. Marcus Johansson skates second line but plays on the top power play line with Ovechkin, so his two goals and four assists in his last five games should be a good indicator as to what his production will be tonight.

Florida comes into this game on a two-game losing streak and by a quick check of the last few games we find that they have not been scoring many goals of late. They have only scored more than two goals just once in regulation over the past eight games and that happened in a 3-1 win at St Louis back on December 1st. If the Panthers are going to pull this one out they will need some scoring from their first line of Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. It’s tough to recommend any Florida players for your cash lineups except for maybe a one-off for salary relief due to their lack of scoring. They do however make a nice GPP play as they will surely not have high ownership tonight.

Elite Plays

WAS: Alexander Ovechkin
FLA: None

Secondary Plays

WAS: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, Marcus Johansson, John Carlson
FLA: Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad

Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings – 07:30 PM EST

Montreal Canadiens					Detroit Red Wings
			Carey Price					Jimmy Howard
			Record					Record
								15-8-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.32	2.21	22.20%	86.30%	Team Stats	2.57	2.54	17.00%	81.00%

After trying to hold on to a 1-0 lead and subsequently caving in to their division foes the Boston Bruins, the Canadiens will try to pick up the pieces and head to Detroit to take on the Red Wings. Montreal has outshot their opponents in each of their last three games which have all resulted in losses. Much like the Panthers, the Canadiens have not scored more than two goals in regulation in their last six games. This makes it very tough to use them in cash games, especially on a back-to-back. The only bright spot here is that Detroit has given up nine power-play goals in their last 14 games, so if Montreal can draw some penalties that will certainly bump up their odds a bit of winning tonight. Tomas Plekanec skates second line but gets the top power play minutes with Max Pacioretty and Alex Galchenyuk saw his modest five-game point streak snapped three games ago and hasn’t found the score-sheet since. If you are thinking of rostering P.K. Subban, there may be better options tonight, especially on FanDuel where both John Carlson and Kevin Shattenkirk are a bit cheaper.

Jeff Blashill continues to shuffle the lines and quite frankly, I am not sure why. He’s been bouncing rookie sensation Dylan Larkin around like an 8-year old at 5 am on Christmas morning. It bears mentioning that the Red Wings are 6-0-4 in their last ten games, so he must be doing something right. Larkin finds himself on the top line again with Henrik Zetterberg and Justin Abdelkader and this is the line to target tonight. The rookie has three goals and four assists in his last seven games and has only been held off the score-sheet twice in his last nine games. Justin Abdelkader has been productive of late as well as he has tallied four goals to go with an assist in his last four games. Look for the Wings to score a few tonight against a tired Montreal team.

Elite Plays

MTL: None
DET: None

Secondary Plays

MTL: Tomas Plekanec, Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban
DET: Dylan Larkin, Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist

Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues – 08:00 PM EST

Philadelphia Flyers					St. Louis Blues
			Steve Mason
			Record					Record
			11-11-6					16-8-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.00	2.71	16.70%	79.60%	Team Stats	2.54	2.39	16.50%	86.90%

Philadelphia comes into this one playing better hockey of late as their 5-3-2 record can attest to. They are still prone to that game that just leaves you in bewilderment, like the 4-1 loss to Columbus on home ice last Saturday. The good news is that it looks like Claude Giroux is starting to heat up as he has scored two goals and assisted on three others in his last five games. It looks like maybe Giroux was told to shoot the puck more as last game he had seven shots on goal against the Islanders which resulted into a goal and an assist. You have to go back to October 24th to find the last game that Giroux had over five shots, which should speak volumes as the Flyers 57 goals are the second least in the league next to Anaheim (55). Wayne Simmonds has four goals and two assists in his last three road games and this makes sense as he skates second line put gets the top power-play minutes in front of the net. Shayne Gostisbehere still has a low salary over at FanDuel and considering his fantasy totals have only dipped in the negative once in the last ten games, could be a good punt while making your lineups tonight.

The Blues rebounded from their three-game losing streak with a solid 4-1 win over Arizona on Tuesday night. Hopefully they don’t get caught looking ahead to this Saturday’s match up against the Dallas Stars, because if they do they could be in for a long night. The Blues need to sharpen up their home game as they are just 1-2-1 in their last four games at Scottrade Center. Vladimir Tarasenko has two goals and an assist in his last three games and continues to be a point a game player for the Blues. While defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk saw his eight-game point streak snapped four games ago, he still has managed two goals and an assist since then and is very much in play tonight. It will take some time to gel, but Magnus Paajarvi has been inserted on the Blues top line with Tarasenko. He didn’t shoot the puck against Arizona but he did manage to find the scoresheet as he assisted on Tarasenko’s second period goal Tuesday night. Look for the Blues to squeak out a 3-2 victory in this one.

Elite Plays

PHI: Claude Giroux
STL: Vladimir Tarasenko

Secondary Plays

PHI: Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek
STL: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen, Paul Stastny, David Backes

Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators – 08:00 PM EST

Chicago Blackhawks					Nashville Predators
			Corey Crawford					Pekka Rinne
			Record					Record
			15-9-4					14-9-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.79	2.50	22.00%	80.80%	Team Stats	2.54	2.64	20.80%	74.40%

Patrick Kane not only extended his point scoring streak to 23 games, the empty net goal against Nashville Tuesday night also represented his 600th NHL point. This is the second game of a home-and-home and it would not be surprising to see the home team win this one, especially when you consider that the Blackhawks are just 5-6-3 on the road this season. That’s not to say there won’t be scoring in this game and you can start with Kane where Chicago is concerned. While Nashville is busy trying to shut down the Kane line, look for the line of Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Teuvo Teravainen to find a little more room on the ice tonight. Teravainen is the choice here as not only is his salary lower than most, he has netted two goals to go with an assist in his last two games. Small sample for sure, but playing with Jonathan Toews has apparently upped his game a bit.

Nashville has scored 13 goals in their last four games and they are starting to look like the Arizona Coyotes of last year as defenseman Roman Josi and Shea Weber are leading the way with seven and eight points respectively in those games. This makes sense as they pair up on the top power play unit which has scored 12 goals in the last 15 games of that variety. Viktor Arvidsson makes an interesting play as he has scored two goals in his last three games while skating on the second line with Mike Ribeiro and Craig Smith. Arvidsson’s price is very cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight.

Elite Plays

CHI: Patrick Kane
NAS: Roman Josi

Secondary Plays

CHI: Teuvo Teravainen, Artem Anisimov, Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook
NAS: Shea Weber, Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg, Calle Jarnkrok, James Neal

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