NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 9th - Page Two

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-03-09 17:51:20

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Montréal Canadiens at Calgary Flames

Montréal Canadiens					Calgary Flames
			Carey Price					Brian Elliott
			Record					Record
			38-21-8					36-26-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.73	2.45	20.70%	80.20%	Team Stats	2.67	2.73	19.60%	80.40%

Canadiens 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.9 CF% / 46.5 GF% / 52.5 xGF %
Flames 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.3 CF% / 52.9 GF% / 49.7 xGF %

Montreal’s offense is in something of a funk right now, and the absence of Alex Radulov hasn’t helped things. The trade deadline didn’t either, but that’s a story for another day. Tonight’s matchup doesn’t bode well for an uptick in that realized GF% number, either. The Flames have been a fairly strong team over the past few months, pushing play well and limiting CA/60. They’ve also been really stingy with regards to scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts, so the volume they are allowing is typically low percentage. We’ve seen Brian Elliott play better as the team in front of him has, too. Add it all up, and the Canadiens are a sketchy team to trust tonight. Max Pacioretty is about the only bankable asset at this point, though Brendan Gallagher is finally rounding in to his pre-injury form. Calgary’s penalty kill is nothing special (80.4%) and they are third most shorthanded team to this point. So, Montreal’s power play will likely need to do the heavy lifting here. That puts Shea Weber and Alex Galchenyuk in play, though they are low floor options so keep that in mind. Andrei Markov might be a better pivot off of Weber price versus price. Speaking of price, Carey has been getting back into top form but comes with plenty of risk based on his high cost.

Perhaps the biggest worry for Price tonight will be Calgary’s second line of Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, and Michael Frolik. This line has been among the league leaders in driving play and generating offense. If the Habs choose to maneuver their matchups to slow Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, the Backlund line could cash in. Of course, they’d still need to get by Price, so they are from a slam dunk play. The aforementioned Gaudreau has been something of a volatile commodity this year, a far cry from the cash game staple (at least in home games) of yesteryear. He and Sean Monahan can be thought of more as tournament options tonight. Calgary does have some puck moving defensemen that warrant consideration tonight. Dougie Hamilton has been great both in his own zone and that of his opponent, and Mark Giordano is starting to atone for his otherwise disappointing campaign. Similar to Calgary, Montreal’s penalty kill isn’t overly impressive (80.2% efficiency) so special teams could be the key to victory. For stacking purposes, Giordano correlates better with the Monahan/Gaudreau line while Hamilton syncs with the Backlund line.

Canadiens Elite Plays: None
Canadiens Secondary Plays:Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, Andrei Markov

Flames Elite Plays: None
Flames Secondary Plays:Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik, Dougie Hamilton, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan

Ottawa Senators at Arizona Coyotes

Ottawa Senators					Arizona Coyotes
			Mike Condon					Mike Smith
			Record					Record
			37-22-6					23-35-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.59	2.62	17.80%	81.60%	Team Stats	2.34	3.22	14.80%	77.70%

Senators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.6 CF% / 46.7 GF% / 48.7 xGF %
Coyotes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 44.7 CF% / 45.9 GF% / 43.2 xGF %

The Senators played in Dallas last night. Tonight they’ll face another poor defense, as the Coyotes have arguably the most generous underlying numbers for opposing offenses. At 5v5, Arizona leads the league in Corsi-Allowed/60, scoring chances allowed/60, and high-danger shot attempts/60. They also have a subpar penalty kill (77.7%) and lack a strong offense to relieve the pressure on the defense. But you knew all of this already. Ottawa would have much more stacking appeal if Mike Hoffman were released from the hockey purgatory otherwise known as the third line. As it is, though, there are few ways to play the Sens. Derick Brassard and Mark Stone are among Ottawa’s best forwards at pushing play and generating offense, and Kyle Turris (should he play) figures to work against Arizona’s top players. Stone and Brassard also skate together on the top power play unit, which has a solid matchup. Hoffman brings some GPP appeal to Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Pageau would help defray some of the cost of adding in Erik Karlsson. All things considered, Mike Smith has done a great job for the Coyotes, but given the volume he faces nightly and the team in front of him, he does sport an elevated goals against average. He’s allowed more than two goals in seven of his past 10 starts.

We all want to love the Coyote offense, right? I mean, when you play a bunch of underdogs in DFS and they hit, it increases the DFS fun factor twentyfold (not scientific). Unfortunately the trading of Martin Hanzal has sapped some of the fun factor and potency of Arizona’s offense. Ottawa’s defense does tend to allow a fair volume of shot attempts, so there is a glimmer of hope yet in the desert. Radim Vrbata sets up nicely in this game as he is a volume shooter (and something of a funnel for the offense). That said, Ottawa has done a good job limiting the quality of chances faced. Don’t oversell yourself on the effect of playing in a back-to-back, either. Max Domi and Christian Dvorak join Vrbata on the top line and Domi and Vrbata have roles on the top power play unit. There are values to be had here, to be sure, if salary cap relief is needed. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is mired in a miserable season, though we have some #NarrativeStreet in play as he goes up against fellow countryman and defender Erik Karlsson. Don’t feel like you need to pay up for him though if you’re looking for exposure to the Coyotes. Jakob Chychrun and Alex Goligoski offer better bang-for-you-buck, and Goligoski is in good form. Digging deeper, Anthony DeAngelo is a skilled puck mover and offers punt play appeal should he crack the lineup. Overall, there is some appeal to the Coyotes for the more adventurous GPP player, but they are more lottery ticket than anything.

Senators Elite Plays:Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone
Senators Secondary Plays:Derick Brassard, Kyle Turris (Q), Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Dion Phaneuf

Coyotes Elite Plays: None
Coyotes Secondary Plays:Radim Vrbata, Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski, Jakob Chychrun

New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks

New York Islanders					Vancouver Canucks
			Thomas Greiss					Ryan Miller
			Record					Record
			31-23-11					28-30-8
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.91	2.91	15.80%	80.30%	Team Stats	2.28	2.82	14.10%	77.80%

Islanders 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.7 CF% / 49.3 GF% / 47.7 xGF %
Canucks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.6 CF% / 46.8 GF% / 46.5 xGF %

Give the Islanders credit from bouncing back quickly after getting torched by the Flames. They’ll look to follow up their impressive victory over the Oilers tonight against the lowly Canucks. It’s a nice matchup for New York forwards. The Canucks don’t do any one thing overly well, particularly on defense. They are not a strong possession team, and the Wonder Twin power line is certainly experiencing some age based tailing off. The Canucks like to use Brandon Sutter’s line against opposing top lines. This will result in a favorable matchup for the Islanders top line, so keep plugging away with John Tavares, Anders Lee, and Josh Bailey. (Even if the Sedin line slots out against them, there’s not much to fear here.) This is another trio that sticks together on the top power play unit and faces off against a subpar penalty kill (77.8%). Vancouver has received credit for punching up the last few days – and they have been – but keep in mind, over these past three games Canuck goaltenders have faced 126 shots. They aren’t going to continue to stop ~95% of them for long. At the very least, we can look at a volume floor for Islander forwards. The second line has very nice value appeal in tournaments. Talented yet raw rookie Josh Ho-Sang really adds a nice finesse element to the line with Andrew Ladd and Brock Nelson. Ladd has actually had a pulse over the past few weeks (six goals, 24 SOG over past 10 games). You can even dig deeper to Ryan Strome, now on the third, as he is putting the puck to the net a few times per game and skates on the top power play unit. On the blueline, there aren’t a ton of high-end options, and in fact, the floor is a bit low – especially if Johnny Boychuk sits. Nick Leddy is the best bet for production but he’s a low volume shooter that doesn’t lend himself well to cash games.

There was a time when the Islanders were a strong team to pick on for DFS purposes, but the quality and high-danger chances have been drying up of late. This doesn’t bode well for the Canucks who come in with one of the worst 5v5 xGF/60 on the slate. The Wonder Twins are joined by Markus Granlund up front as Loui Eriksson is out indefinitely and Jannik Hansen was traded. Granlund is an uninspiring choice and limits the potency of the line. The torch is being passed to Bo Horvat, as he and Sven Baertschi have developed a nice chemistry on the second line. Horvat is the only cash game play of the bunch; the rest don’t shoot nearly enough to establish anything of a reasonable floor. Thomas Greiss is coming off a strong showing versus Connor McDavid and has generally played well this year. Even on home ice, the Canucks aren’t an overly exciting group. New York’s penalty kill is exploitable (80%) but to this point, the Canucks have one of the worst power plays in the league (14%) and are without a solid shooter in Loui Eriksson.

Islanders Elite Plays:John Tavares, Anders Lee, Josh Bailey
Islanders Secondary Plays:Brock Nelson, Josh Ho-Sang, Andrew Ladd, Ryan Strome

Canucks Elite Plays: None
Canucks Secondary Plays:Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi, Alex Edler, Ben Hutton

Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings

Nashville Predators					Los Angeles Kings
			Pekka Rinne					Jonathan Quick
			Record					Record
			32-24-10					31-28-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.92	2.79	20.80%	81.00%	Team Stats	2.45	2.48	17.70%	85.00%

Predators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.7 CF% / 48.8 GF% / 51.9 xGF %
Kings 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 55.7 CF% / 46.4 GF% / 53.2 xGF %

Nashville continues to run the California gauntlet. Tonight’s matchup won’t be easy, as they’ll be up against the best team west of the Mississippi in terms of Corsi-For . The Kings push play and don’t allow much in the way of shot generation, and to date, the Predators haven’t exactly been a high volume, high event team. The risk reward in this one will boil down to taking poor odds versus low ownership. Los Angeles boasts two top notch goaltenders to complicate matters. Can Filip Forsberg keep the magic going in Tinseltown? He has 14 shots on net the past two games, so while the goals have cooled since that torrid stretch to end February, it’s not like he was a flash in the pan. Remember when he was shooting like 5 in the fall? Ah, regression is fun. Anyway, it’s a tough matchup for him but again, tournament players need to consider the risk/reward here on a hot, gifted goal scorer. Don’t look for much of a floor from the Nashville forwards due to expected game flow issues. It’s worth noting that while Anze Kopitar is one of the best two-way centers in the league, he does have some “slower” wingers and his CA/60 numbers haven’t been on par of late. He’d likely to deploy against the Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson line. James Neal, Colin Wilson, and Calle Jarnkrok form a nice second line, but they will have to contend with the Kings’ second line (“That 70’s Line”). Again, this is a likely low event situation, so the Predators will need the skilled shooters to come through. Afterall, Ben Bishop did allow four goals on 21 to the Canucks, of all teams, last game. Look for Jonathan Quick in the cage for the Kings. He’s been strong since coming back from injury, aside from a rough outing in Minnesota.

The situation for the Kings is similar to that of the Predators, but the Kings don’t have to deal with same goaltending barrier as Nashville. While the Predators boast a top notch defense that severely limits quality scoring chances, Pekka Rinne is far from a shy-away netminder, especially on the road. He’s allowed 32 goals over his past 10 games and his hot start from early in the year seems long gone now. He can’t stop high-danger shot attempts, and there are a few Kings that can put them up in droves. The spot really isn’t bad for “That 70’s Line” – Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, and Tanner Pearson. While Nashville’s defenders do limit high-danger shot attempts, they’ll avoid the Forsberg line and Pekka Rinne’s struggles negate the quality versus quantity issues. Outside of that line, however, things get really murky really fast. Anze Kopitar is a great player but he’s skating with two players past their primes on his wings, and the matchup has warts. On defense, Drew Doughty’s high price tag and suboptimal matchup make him a questionable play. Pivot to Alec Martinez and Jake Muzzin if looking to play the Kings’ blueline.

Predators Elite Plays:Filip Forsberg
Predators Secondary Plays:James Neal, Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi, Calle Jarnkrok

Kings Elite Plays:Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli
Kings Secondary Plays:Tanner Pearson, Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez

Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks

Washington Capitals					San Jose Sharks
			Braden Holtby					Martin Jones
			Record					Record
			44-14-7					39-19-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.25	2.06	21.60%	85.00%	Team Stats	2.73	2.34	16.70%	81.00%

Capitals 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.9 CF% / 67.7 GF% / 51.9 xGF %
Sharks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 52.4 CF% / 58.7 GF% / 51.2 xGF %

Over their past 25 games, the Capitals have a 5v5 GF% of 67.7 compared to a year-to-date xGF% of 51.9. That’s a fairly large discrepancy, so if this were a Jim Cramer show, we’d be putting up “bubble” graphics that harkens back to the housing market circa 2007. The Caps begin the tough California swing tonight, and after getting embarrassed at home by the Stars, they’ll look to get back on track against the Sharks. Not an easy assignment. Alex Ovechkin is in a major funk right now, though linemates T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom are in fine form. Eventually something will need to give with Ovechkin, but his high price tag across the industry plus depressed rate of shot generation make him a major fade candidate tonight. This is the type of matchup where Evgeny Kuznetsov and the second line look more attractive. The Sharks don’t force the Joe Thornton line on opposing top lines necessarily (for example, when Boston visited, the Bergeron line saw more time against the Logan Couture line) so this isn’t a lost cause. That said, Martin Jones is in good form, having allowed just six goals over his past four games with three of those starts against legit offenses (Boston, Toronto, Minnesota). This isn’t a great matchup for the Capitals offense and they are a risky late night hammer. While San Jose’s penalty kill is middle of the road (81%), take note that the Capitals mixed up their power play deployment last game out against a weak Dallas penalty kill. Kevin Shattenkirk went from double duty to seeing just 37% of the defensive assignment on the advantage, where John Carlson (and to a lesser extent Matt Niskanen) took the spotlight.

Things don’t get much better for the Sharks forwards. They’ll go against a solid Washington defense, a stout penalty kill (85%), and a Vezina frontrunner in Braden Holtby. An interesting quirk to Washington, however, is that they allow an elevated amount of high-danger shot attempts at 5v5. The Sharks just so happen to be pretty decent at generating such chances. The second line of Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau, and Mikkel Boedker have done a pretty nice job of generating HDCF/60 compared to their teammates. They make for a nice tournament stack option. Washington’s top line has actually had an issue suppressing high-danger shots, so if the Couture line does wind up seeing more time against them as it seems they might, that’s a benefit. Couture and Marleau stick together on the top power play unit too, though Washington has a very strong penalty killing rate, so don’t chase that opportunity too much.

Capitals Elite Plays: None
Capitals Secondary Plays:Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, Jakub Vrana, John Carlson

Sharks Elite Plays:Brent Burns, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski
Sharks Secondary Plays:Patrick Marleau, Tomas Hertl, Mikkel Boedker, Kevin Labanc

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