NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 9th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-03-10 14:58:29

Jump to Page 1 2

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes

New York Rangers					Carolina Hurricanes
			Henrik Lundqvist					Cam Ward
			Record					Record
			43-22-2					26-27-10
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.18	2.58	17.40%	81.80%	Team Stats	2.44	2.83	16.70%	85.10%

Rangers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.4 CF% / 49.7 GF% / 50 xGF %
Hurricanes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.9 CF% / 41.1 GF% / 50.6 xGF %

The Rangers will play their third game in four nights. While fatigue could factor in – especially with their previous two games being something of high-event games – a matchup against a struggling Carolina defense should negate that some. Over their past 25 games, the Hurricanes have seen increases in their 5v5 (adjusted) scoring chances allowed per 60, expected goals-against per 60, and high-danger shot attempts allowed per 60. Goaltending has been a quagmire for most of the year as Cam Ward and Eddie Lack are not on the level of Herbert Saffir and Robert Simpson. On home ice, the Hurricanes don’t tend to run one forward line out exclusively against opposing lines, which will benefit Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, and Mats Zuccarello. This is a line that drives play extremely well and have great stacking appeal tonight. Of course, the Rangers’ great strength this year drives from their depth of forward power. New York doesn’t drive play particularly well outside of the Stepan line, but Mika Zibanejad is playing better and is flanked by the ever present Rick Nash and newly freed Pavel Buchnevich. The trick with the Rangers is figuring which line will do the damage. The higher floor, higher probability line is the Stepan Trio. Given Cam Ward’s struggles against the higher quality scoring chances, the top six has nice upside.

The matchup is arguably better for the Hurricanes. While the Rangers still have that King Lundqvist fellow in net, the defense continues to struggle at 5v5. They are allowing one of the highest rates of high-danger shot attempts over their past 25 games. The offense, while dangerous, gets by more on shooting rate as opposed to consistent pressure. Thus, we should expect the ‘Canes to push play in this one. Unfortunately, Carolina has turned back the clocks to… well, each of the past three years, really: push play, fail to score. The underlying numbers are one thing, but the failure to capitalize is what DFS owners notice. If we assume that the Jordan Staal line (as of this writing, Staal plus Elias Lindholm and Joakim Nordstrom) gets the majority (but not all) of the time against the Stepan line, it’s a nice set up for Sebastian Aho, Victor Rask, and Teuvo Teravainen. Aho and Teravainen in particular have a solid rate of driving play, setting them up nicely against a Ranger team with a poor Corsi-For percentage at 5v5. Jeff Skinner is almost always in play and tonight isn’t very different – his shot rate has fallen a bit of late, but he remains a highly skilled forward with a nice resume of shot generation. Justin Faulk potted one in Carolina’s last game, so maybe his luck is turning. He’s Skinner’s equivalent on the blueline, a volume shooter that should theoretically be able to take advantage of the nice matchup. All that said, given Carolina’s struggles to light the lamp, they can be looked at as more secondary options.

Hurricanes Elite Plays:Sebastian Aho
Hurricanes Secondary Plays:Jeff Skinner, Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk

Rangers Elite Plays:Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello
Rangers Secondary Plays:Derek Stepan, Mika Zibanejad, Rick Nash, Pavel Buchnevich

Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs

Philadelphia Flyers					Toronto Maple Leafs
			Steve Mason					Frederik Andersen
			Record					Record
			31-26-8					29-22-14
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.52	2.91	20.50%	80.80%	Team Stats	3.03	2.89	22.90%	83.50%

Flyers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.7 CF% / 39.8 GF% / 46.8 xGF %
Maple Leafs 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.2 CF% / 52.3 GF% / 52.6 xGF %

The Flyers saw some positive regression on their poor goal scoring luck last time out, adding goals to their team total in a win in Buffalo. They have a chance to continue improving on their ugly goals-for rate, but there are holes in this forward group. Jordan Weal has been a nice spark plug to the top six (at the expense of Travis Konecny). Weal is a viable value/punt play in what should be a high event game. He’s playing 5v5 minutes with Claude Giroux, who scored last game. Even with that goal, Giroux has had a massively disappointing campaign and his price is still relatively high in the industry. He warrants fade considerations tonight, especially due to the risk of Nazem Kadri lining up opposite him with Toronto controlling home ice. On the whole though, this is a favorable draw for the Flyers. They are now starting to pair some scoring chances and quality shot attempts to their otherwise high 5v5 shot attempt figure. There may not be any must plays with the Flyers, but you can count on the big names as secondary options. Frederik Andersen is playing well, which is mitigating factor, as he has posted a quality start in four of his last five outings.

With the Flyers playing an open style similar to the Leafs, this game should be a moderate to high event hockey game. This sets up well for the Maple Leafs as they can throw three legitimate scoring lines against Philadelphia’s questionable-at-times defense. To the Flyer blueliners’ credit, they are limiting the high amount of shot attempts against to lower quality attempts. Whichever line goes against Philadelphia’s second line has the better on-paper matchup. Coach Mike Babcock switched up his defensive assignments last game, putting the Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Zach Hyman line against Detroit’s top scoring trio. However, one line that rarely gets the toughest matchups is the Tyler Bozak, Mitchell Marner, James van Riemsdyk line. This trio stays together on the power play, making them excellent stacking or pairing options. Steve Mason has one of the worst save percentages on high-danger save percentages at 5v5 among all goalies in the league, so that’s a boost to a team that is adept at generating such chances (the same can be said for Michael Neuvirth should he start). Philadelphia’s penalty kill is nothing special at 80.8%, and with goaltending running so inconsistent in Philadelphia this year, there is an open door for goals. Speaking of goaltending, this isn’t a bad matchup to consider Frederik Andersen. There should be a fair amount of shot volume for him, he’s playing well and at home, and the Flyers have maintained a consistently low (albeit rising) xGF/60 at 5v5. Andersen makes for a nice mid-priced GPP option.

Philadelphia Elite Plays: None
Philadelphia Secondary Plays:Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek, Jordan Weal, Radko Gudas

Toronto Elite Plays:Mitchell Marner, James van Riemsdyk
Toronto Secondary Plays:Tyler Bozak, Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri, William Nylander

Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning

Minnesota Wild					Tampa Bay Lightning
			Devan Dubnyk					Andrei Vasilevskiy
			Record					Record
			42-16-6					30-26-9
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.28	2.33	22.00%	84.40%	Team Stats	2.69	2.74	22.10%	80.00%

Wild 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.9 CF% / 54.7 GF% / 54.6 xGF %
Lightning 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 53.8 CF% / 52.6 GF% / 51.6 xGF %

If you look at those adjusted 5v5 numbers over the past 25 games for the Wild, you’ll notice a fairly substantial rift between the rate of driving play and the rate of scoring (though, the expected goals-for rate is in line with actual). For the past few months the Wild have been getting manhandled in terms of net shot attempts. Their 5v5 Corsi-For % is a far cry from playoff caliber, yet the goals have still been there. Eventually, one of these two things will need to correct, and it’s likely to be the goals for. To be fair, Minnesota is still generating a good deal of high-danger shot attempts, so they are making use of their opportunities, but they are also running inefficiently thanks to their porous defense. A round of applause for Devan Dubnyk, everyone. Minnesota’s offense has a tough assignment tonight. They’re playing in Tampa Bay, where the Lightning are a strong team, and facing a defense with a stout 51.5 Corsi-Allowed/60 at 5v5 (adj). Quality shots will be at a premium as well, and Andrei Vasilevskiy has been masterful for the Lightning since becoming the bona fide number one netminder. The best hope for the Wild will need to come on the power play and among the secondary scorers that benefit from positive 5v5 on-ice matchups. This theoretical Venn diagram would point to Nino Niederreiter being a solid play, but certainly not a must-play. The second line of Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu, and Jason Zucker can also be considered, but be wary of the top line. Jared Spurgeon has appeal on the blueline as he sees healthy minutes and runs the blueline on the second power play unit.

Coming off a bad beat against the Rangers where nearly 40 shots couldn’t light the lamp, look for the Lightning to put forth another high volume effort. With Brian Boyle out of town, the revised third line of Vladislav Namestnikov, Adam Erne and Yanni Gourde opened some eyes last game, specifically Big Erne (six shots on goal). Not that you are thinking of it, but chasing last game against a hollow Ranger squad is unadvisable. This is a two line team, to be sure. And tonight, they are more like a one line team. Brayden Point, Jonathan Drouin, and Alex Killorn are a solid second line could draw out against the Wild second line, which has been strong to this year. The best bet, as usual, are the Triplets (Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and Ondrej Palat). This dangerous group has a nice floor thanks to fairly bankable shots on goal, but the Wild clamp down on high-danger shots and then have that Dubnyk guy. Victor Hedman provides artillery from the rear but his ammunition requires a large upfront cost. With Dubnyk in net and no power play advantage (Minnesota has a strong 84.4% penalty kill rate), Hedman is a risky play.

Wild Elite Plays: None
Wild Secondary Plays:Nino Niederreiter, Jason Pominville, Jared Spurgeon, Mikael Granlund

Lightning Elite Plays:Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson
Lightning Secondary Plays:Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Drouin, Brayden Point

Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks

Anaheim Ducks					Chicago Blackhawks
			Jonathan Bernier					Corey Crawford
			Record					Record
			34-22-10					42-18-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.56	2.52	19.00%	84.80%	Team Stats	3.00	2.51	19.40%	76.90%

Ducks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.8 CF% / 51.9 GF% / 52.3 xGF %
Blackhawks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 53.3 CF% / 57.1 GF% / 48.3 xGF %

Alas, the Ducks are going to just miss getting the Hawks at an ideal time. Unfortunately for Anaheim, the Chicago roster dropped many of the questionable and day-to-day tags and look to be back to full health. That includes top defender Niklas Hjalmarsson. With Hjalmarsson back in the fold, the Blackhawks can move Brent Seabrook back to the second pairing and away from opposing top lines. This is a poor development for Anaheim’s top line but a positive one for the second line. Seabrook has a ghastly Corsi-Allowed/60 number at 5v5. Anaheim’s bigger guns are mostly commingled amongst the top three lines, which bodes well for the team as a whole in Chicago. It makes the forwards harder to narrow down for DFS purposes, though. A resurgent Ryan Getzlaf might draw Chicago’s attention while the Ducks choose to deploy Ryan Kesler against the dangerous Chicago second line when they can. This matchup could benefit the Kesler line. While Patrick Kane line can control the puck quite well, it should be a high event matchup. Rickard Rakell and Corey Perry are tough to trust for various reasons. Rickard Rakell is shooting over 20% this year and has poor possession numbers, so his play is going to be uneven at best and should trend downward long term. With Corey Perry, you’re paying a premium for a name brand suffering from horrible puck luck. He’s still generating solid high-danger shot attempts though, so he is a sneaky play tonight despite the fact Chicago has tightened the danger zone. The power play is one area the Ducks can exploit, as Anaheim’s reasonable power play (19%) goes against a below average penalty kill (76.9%). This opens the door for Cam Fowler on the blueline. All in all, it looks like the Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg line is the one to target here. With Corey Crawford one of the top 5v5 goalies and the Blackhawks improving their defensive metrics, though, expectations should be tempered some.

Chicago has a fairly straightforward offense to analyze. They can be likened to choosing an airline for your vacation: The Jonathan Toews line is your more budget friendly airline that has just as much of a chance as arriving early as it does breaking down. The Patrick Kane line is the Admiral’s Club with Virgin Airlines: You’ll pay up for the service, but you’re more or less guaranteed a good time. Using this analogy in tonight’s game, there is a spot of turbulence ahead that is also known as Hampus Lindholm. Figuring out where in the flightpath the turbulent patch is (or which line he slots against) is key to a good trip. Anaheim’s defense overall is middle of the road and vulnerable to high-danger shot attempts, and Jonathan Bernier in net is far from a shy-away draw. Lindholm, however, is a legit shutdown defenseman. Chicago has the benefit of the final change so look for them to keep Kane, Artem Anisimov, and Artemi Panarin away from Lindholm when possible. That could mean a tougher night for the Toews line, despite how well Toews personally has been playing. There is less risk with Toews’ linemates as their price point is considerably cheaper than that of the Kane line. You can save a little money forgoing Artem Anisimov as he is a low volume shooter and thus a low floor option, and he has also been bumped away from his 5v5 linemates on the power play.

Ducks Elite Plays:Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg
Ducks Secondary Plays:Andrew Cogliano, Corey Perry, Rickard Rakell, Cam Fowler

Blackhawks Elite Plays:Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin
Blackhawks Secondary Plays:Jonathan Toews, Richard Panik, Ryan Hartman, Artem Anisimov

New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche

New Jersey Devils					Colorado Avalanche
			Cory Schneider					Calvin Pickard
			Record					Record
			25-29-12					18-44-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.18	2.83	17.60%	80.90%	Team Stats	1.90	3.30	13.50%	78.00%

Devils 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 46.3 CF% / 43.5 GF% / 48.2 xGF %
Avalanche 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.8 CF% / 34.4 GF% / 44.9 xGF %

Woof. The Devils offense is pretty bleak right now. Hey, they looked like a competent NHL offense against the other night against the Blue Jackets… in the first period… in a game in which they were shutout again. Silver linings. The Devils have one scoring line that should have any type of expectation attached to it, and even that should be low. Taylor Hall is the only prominent New Jersey forward, but his 5v5 scoring chance and high-danger shot attempt figures are depressed. Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac play alongside Hall at 5v5 and on the power play; they more or less complete the considerable Devils. And to be clear, the Avalanche aren’t a slam-dunk matchup by any means despite their reputation. They have Erik Johnson back on the blueline, a legitimate defender, and their quality chances allowed are actually respectable. This is going to be a low event hockey game, which limits upside. Consider Cory Schneider in all formats, though a win can’t be taken for granted.

Woof. The Avalanche offense is pretty bleak right now. Hey, they looked like a competent NHL offense against the Hurricanes… against subpar goalie Eddie Lack… in a game in which they still only scored three goals. Look, Colorado is due for some positive regression, but talent is pretty scarce among the forwards. The Devils are a low event team so there won’t be many quality chances to go around. Cory Schneider needed a mental breather before New Jersey’s last game but he should be back in the blue paint tonight. He’s a strong netminder so going overboard on Avalanche is not advisable. Still, Nathan MacKinnon got the monkey off his back last game and Tyson Barrie has perked up some, providing support from the blueline. Shot volume will likely be an issue though, despite New Jersey’s meh defense. Calvin Pickard is a nice value play in net. His low cost offsets the risk of low shots faced, and he’s been playing quite well over the past several weeks.

Devils Elite Plays: None
Devils Secondary Plays:Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri

Avalanche Elite Plays: None
Avalanche Secondary Plays:Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog

Jump to Page 1 2