NHL Grind Down: Thursday, October 20th - Page Two
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Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning
| Colorado Avalanche | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Semyon Varlamov |  | Ben Bishop | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 39-39-4 | 46-31-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.59 | 3.67 | 18.00% | 80.20% | Team Stats | 2.73 | 3.00 | 15.80% | 84.00% |
Don’t get me wrong, this Colorado team is certainly capable of lighting up the scoreboard plenty this season, but a visit to Amalie Arena to face this extremely talented Tampa Bay Lightning squad should have even those most bullish Avalanche fans bumping the breaks a bit tonight. The Avalanche were just severely outplayed by a very good Washington Capitals team, and this matchup just isn’t any easier. Outside of maybe a high-floor option like Francois Beauchemin (on FanDuel anyways, where he’s relatively cheap) my use of Colorado players tonight will be of the GPP only variety. The duo of Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan Mackinnon are very dangerous offensively and are fine GPP targets, with their linemate Jarome Iginla still proving to be a threat on the power-play (but not much of a threat elsewhere, any longer). Alternatively, Matt Duchene seems unharmed after Dmitry Orlov tried to enter him into an Olympic diving event on Tuesday, and actually lead the Avalanche with 30 goals last season. His linemates (Mikhail Grigorenko and Carl Soderberg) aren’t quite as talented as MacKinnon’s, but Duchene does benefit from being the center on the #1 power-play unit. On the blue-line, there are three guys that require your attention; Tyson Barrie, Erik Johnson and the aforementioned Francois Beauchemin. Barrie is the most capable of the three in the offensive end and see runs the point on the #1 power-play unit, but Beauchemin and Johnson both do a fine job racking up the peripheral stats.
After a surprising 2-0 start, the Colorado Avalanche were brought back down to earth on Tuesday, losing 3-0 in Washington and being outshot 40-18 in the process. With this Tampa Bay team just as talented as their Eastern Conference Foe the Washington Capitals, I don’t think it’s overly outlandish to expect a similar type of an outcome here tonight. The Avalanche were the worst puck possession team in the NHL last season and chasing this quick and skilled Tampa team around the ice is just not going to end well on most occasions. To make things worse, poor puck possession teams tend to take more penalties and this Colorado team has been terrible in the early going this season on the penalty kill (8 for 14, or 57.1%). Let me make it clear, I love Tampa Bay in this spot, but pinpointing where their scoring is going to come from on any given night has proven to be somewhat difficult. With that in mind, I’m going to look for some exposure to both of their immensely talented top two forward lines. Steven Stamkos draws most of the headlines and has picked up at least one point in all three games this season. He’ll center Ondrej Palat and Jonathan Drouin on the top line leaving the dangerous duo of Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov to work together on the “second” line where they’ll also be joined the red-hot Alex Killorn (who has a goal in each game this season). All six players see plenty of playing time with the man advantage and are pretty safe to deploy in all formats. On the blue-line, Victor Hedman seems headed for NHL stardom and is locked into 25+ minutes per night. He and fellow defenseman Anton Stralman split nearly all of the available power-play minutes and are both very nice options, as well.
Colorado Avalanche
Team Metrics – 2016 – 44.2 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -13, 113.44 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Nathan MacKinnon – 2016 metrics – 57.25 CF60, 2.36 xGF60, 101.04 PDO
Matt Duchene – 2016 metrics – 55.03 CF60, 2.31 xGF60, 101.41 PDO
Gabriel Landeskog – 2016 metrics – 52.64 CF60, 2.06 xGF60, 100.39 PDO
Francois Beauchemin – 2016 metrics – 49.66 CF60, 1.94 xGF60, 99.98 PDO
Expected Netminder
Semyon Varlamov – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Metrics – 2016 – 52.19 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 23, 108.6 CP60
Elite Options
Steven Stamkos – 2016 metrics – 57.76 CF60, 2.24 xGF60, 102.21 PDO
Nikita Kucherov – 2016 metrics – 60.52 CF60, 2.54 xGF60, 102.11 PDO
Victor Hedman – 2016 metrics – 64.19 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 101.98 PDO
Secondary Options
Tyler Johnson – 2016 metrics – 58.76 CF60, 2.46 xGF60, 102.35 PDO
Jonathan Drouin – 2016 metrics – 53.34 CF60, 1.79 xGF60, 109.36 PDO
Alex Killorn – 2016 metrics – 58.14 CF60, 2.36 xGF60, 101.95 PDO
Ondrej Palat – 2016 metrics – 57.44 CF60, 2.34 xGF60, 103.2 PDO
Anton Stralman – 2016 metrics – 58.46 CF60, 2.44 xGF60, 101.54 PDO
Expected Netminder
Ben Bishop – My Ratings (out of 10): 9 Cash, 8 GPP
Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Minnesota Wild | ||||||||
 | Jhonas Enroth |  | Devan Dubnyk | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 29-42-11 | 38-33-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.34 | 3.00 | 15.40% | 81.60% | Team Stats | 2.60 | 3.00 | 18.50% | 77.90% |
An eleven game slate and we have Toronto on the second-half of a back-to-back heading to Minnesota to battle a very tough Wild team? I think I’ll pass. After blowing a 4-0 lead in last night’s game, this is a fairly easy cash game fade for me (no offense Leaf’s fans). We saw what Auston Matthews was capable of on opening night and that keeps him firmly on the GPP radar for the foreseeable future and Nazem Kadri put on a bit of a show last night as well. The Leafs have the pieces to build around, but they don’t figure to be overly consistent or reliable this season. On defense, Morgan Rielly logged nearly 25 minutes of ice-time in last night’s game and has now picked up an assist in all three games this season. He has a bright future for the Leafs and will continue to be heavily involved with the offensive attack.
After an opening night loss in St. Louis, the Minnesota Wild have picked up back-to-back victories and look to be firing on all cylinders as they host the Maple Leafs this evening in what has to be considered one of the better matchups on the board. The Maple Leafs are a very young team and it would not be at all surprising to see them a bit rattled after blowing a 4-0 lead last night in Winnipeg. They’ve allowed 3.67 goals against per game this season and this Minnesota offense seems to have found its stride lately. Minnesota’s top forward line of Zach Parise, Eric Staal and Charlie Coyle is extremely dangerous, and with the Maple Leafs lacking a true “shut down” defender, they should be able to create a plethora of scoring chances this evening. All three players also join forces on the #1 power-play where they’ll look to take advantage of what has been a lackluster penalty kill for Toronto thus far this season (77.8%). If you’re looking to be a bit contrarian, Mikko Koivu centers both the second forward line and #1 power-play unit and actually lead this team in points last season (56). On defense, Ryan Suter is the definition of a workhorse defenseman. He averaged 28:35 of ice-time per game last season and finished the season with a career high 51 points. He facilitates things from the point of that #1 power-play unit and is the best bang-for-your-buck option on the blue-line this evening on several sites. If you’re looking for a cheaper alternative, Jared Spurgeon is proving his doubters wrong and the diminutive blue-liner now also sees a healthy dose of playing time on the power-play across from Suter.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.34 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -40, 115.87 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Auston Matthews – 2016 metrics – NA
Nazem Kadri – 2016 metrics – 63.94 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 96.74 PDO
Morgan Rielly – 2016 metrics – 60.51 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 97.9 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jhonas Enroth – My Ratings (out of 10): 4 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Minnesota Wild
Team Metrics – 2016 – 47.86 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 11, 106.98 CP60
Elite Options
Zach Parise – 2016 metrics – 57.29 CF60, 2.53 xGF60, 100.11 PDO
Ryan Suter – 2016 metrics – 54.4 CF60, 2.44 xGF60, 100.47 PDO
Secondary Options
Charlie Coyle – 2016 metrics – 51.12 CF60, 2.15 xGF60, 100.87 PDO
Mikko Koivu – 2016 metrics – 54.06 CF60, 2.33 xGF60, 101.37 PDO
Eric Staal – 2016 metrics – 63.37 CF60, 3.1 xGF60, 99.18 PDO
Jared Spurgeon – 2016 metrics – 54.07 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 99.93 PDO
Expected Netminder
Devan Dubnyk – My Ratings (out of 10): 8.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars
| Los Angeles Kings | Dallas Stars | ||||||||
 | Jeff Zatkoff |  | Antti Niemi | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 48-28-6 | 50-23-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.72 | 4.00 | 20.00% | 81.40% | Team Stats | 3.23 | 3.00 | 22.10% | 82.30% |
The Los Angeles Kings are becoming all too familiar with slow starts and will take the ice tonight as one of only three winless teams left in the NHL. This team has all of the same key contributors in place as the team version that won the 2014 Stanley Cup, so they don’t figure to stay stuck in this slump for long. With that said, two key injuries (Marian Gaborik and Jonathan Quick) have them struggling on both ends of the ice thus far this season. With Gaborik sidelined, they’ve struggled to find much offense and have only averaged 25 SOG per game this season. Meanwhile, Jeff Zatkoff has struggled to fill Quick’s shoes (skates) in net and the Kings have surrendered four goals per game through their first three games. Now, on to tonight’s matchup which offers both good new and bad news. The bad news; Zatkoff’s struggles in net figure to be prolonged a bit against the high-flying Dallas Stars. The good news; Dallas’ frantic pace (118.93 CP60) should help jump start their struggling offense. Anze Kopitar is the heart and soul of this team and also happens to be the most reliable offensive weapon. He’s scored a goal and added two assists over the first three games and joins forces with 31-goal scorer Tyler Toffoli (and Dwight King) on the top forward line. Meanwhile, Jeff Carter racked up 24 goals and 38 assists last season and should definitely be happy to have Tanner Pearson, who scored a pair of goals in his season debut, back on his wing. On defense, Drew Doughty sees about as much playing time per game as any player in the NHL and has topped 45 points in each of the last two seasons. He quarterback’s the #1 power-play unit and is a fine option in all formats. Jake Muzzin joins him on the point of that top power-play unit and has developed into Doughty-lite as he has a reasonably similar upside but can also be found at a fraction of the price on several sites.
Breaking down the Dallas Stars has to start with the dynamic duo of Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. They combined for 74 goals and 88 assists last season and are arguably the most dangerous tandem in the NHL today. They’ll be joined on the top forward line by Patrick Eaves who becomes a fantasy option based on that fact alone. Behind that top forward line, Lindy Ruff has plenty of skilled forwards at his disposal, but injuries/illnesses (Hudler, Hemsky, Eakin) combined with some odd line formations leave a bit to be desired from the rest of the crew at even strength. While this does mean that Benn/Seguin/Eaves will likely see a heavy dose of Anze Kopitar pestering defense, they still have to be viewed as the even strength line to target in this matchup. However, Jason Spezza joins the trio from the top line on the #1 power-play unit that clicked at a 22.1% clip last season and throws his hat in the cash game mix as well. On defense, John Klingberg has taken the NHL by storm and is now locked into 25 minutes of ice-time per night. He quarterback’s that #1 power-play unit and has now racked up 21 goals and 78 assists in 144 career games. If you’re looking for GPP value, the Devin Shore may also be worth a look for Dallas. The 22 year-old has a goal and two assists already this season and was just recently bumped onto the second forward line while also seeing a healthy dose as the center of the second power-play unit.
Los Angeles Kings
Team Metrics – 2016 – 56.37 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 19, 112.19 CP60
Elite Options
Anze Kopitar – 2016 metrics – 63.71 CF60, 2.82 xGF60, 102.5 PDO
Drew Doughty – 2016 metrics – 64.18 CF60, 2.72 xGF60, 100.01 PDO
Secondary Options
Jeff Carter – 2016 metrics – 68.44 CF60, 3.01 xGF60, 99.68 PDO
Tyler Toffoli – 2016 metrics – 71.4 CF60, 3 xGF60, 102.99 PDO
Tanner Pearson – 2016 metrics – 61.51 CF60, 2.7 xGF60, 100.74 PDO
Jake Muzzin – 2016 metrics – 67.29 CF60, 2.8 xGF60, 98.01 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jeff Zatkoff – My Ratings (out of 10): 4.5 Cash, 6 GPP
Dallas Stars
Team Metrics – 2016 – 52.56 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 11, 118.93 CP60
Elite Options
Jamie Benn – 2016 metrics – 65.06 CF60, 3.02 xGF60, 98.42 PDO
Tyler Seguin – 2016 metrics – 65.82 CF60, 3.09 xGF60, 98.24 PDO
Secondary Options
Jason Spezza – 2016 metrics – 69.74 CF60, 3.12 xGF60, 101.07 PDO
Patrick Sharp – 2016 metrics – 65.57 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 98.53 PDO
John Klingberg – 2016 metrics – 70.1 CF60, 3.18 xGF60, 100.78 PDO
Expected Netminder
Antti Niemi – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 5.5 GPP
St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers
| St. Louis Blues | Edmonton Oilers | ||||||||
 | Jake Allen |  | Cam Talbot | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 49-24-9 | 31-43-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.67 | 2.00 | 21.50% | 85.10% | Team Stats | 2.43 | 3.75 | 18.10% | 81.10% |
After starting off the season with three straight victories, the St. Louis Blues should be very hungry to get back to their winning ways after letting two points slip away on Tuesday night against the Vancouver Canucks. They’ll make the short trip northeast to Edmonton to challenge an exciting, but defensively inept Edmonton Oilers team inside the new Rogers Place. When analyzing the St. Louis offense, you have to start with #91 Vladimir Tarasenko. The Russian sniper has already racked up four goals and a pair of assists over the first four games of the season and reached the 40 goal plateau for the first time in his young career last season. With Jaden Schwartz likely making his season debut tonight (and Jori Lehtera placed on IR), it’s still a bit unclear how Ken Hitchcock’s forward lines will shake out, so that will be some news to watch for after their morning skate. Regardless, Tarasenko, Schwartz, Steen and Stastny all figure to play together in some capacity and are terrific options in this very favorable matchup. Just not that Alex Steen may be asked to do his best to shadow Connor McDavid, which would be a slight dent to his fantasy value. On defense, it’s the usual suspects for the Blues that should be on your radar. Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko all see plenty of run with the man advantage and all three seem to find ways to put up solid fantasy performances on a nightly basis.
Simply put, this is easily the toughest matchup for the Oilers to date this season. With that said, Connor McDavid is obviously a special talent and fading him will be a tough decision to make all season long. Mc David has tallied three goals and added three assists over the first four games and looks to have a very nice rapport with his linemates on the top line Jordan Eberle and Milan Lucic. Alternatively, Leon Draisaitl joins those three on Edmonton’s #1 power-play unit and he quietly shares the team lead with McDavid at 6 points thus far. The Blues are very sound defensively and have proven to be strong on the penalty kill, but all four of these guys are still very much in play in all formats this evening. On defense, Andrej Sekera has the luxury of joining those four guys as the point man on the #1 power-play, making him a fine option where he’s priced reasonably. Kris Russell has picked up three assists in the early going this season and continues to dominate the blocked shots category, giving him a very nice floor in cash games.
St. Louis Blues
Team Metrics – 2016 – 52 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 15, 109.05 CP60
Elite Options
Vladimir Tarasenko – 2016 metrics – 63.12 CF60, 2.9 xGF60, 101.26 PDO
Kevin Shattenkirk – 2016 metrics – 55.45 CF60, 2.29 xGF60, 98.02 PDO
Alex Pietrangelo – 2016 metrics – 58.64 CF60, 2.71 xGF60, 101.35 PDO
Secondary Options
Alex Steen – 2016 metrics – 56.3 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 100.99 PDO
Jaden Schwartz – 2016 metrics – 60.68 CF60, 2.76 xGF60, 102.34 PDO
Paul Stastny – 2016 metrics – 63.77 CF60, 2.86 xGF60, 100.47 PDO
Colton Parayko – 2016 metrics – 60.53 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 102.3 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jake Allen – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 8 GPP
Edmonton Oilers
Team Metrics – 2016 – 48.9 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -36, 112.96 CP60
Elite Options
Connor McDavid – 2016 metrics – 60.84 CF60, 3.47 xGF60, 99.16 PDO
Secondary Options
Jordan Eberle – 2016 metrics – 60.87 CF60, 3.05 xGF60, 98.26 PDO
Leon Draisaitl – 2016 metrics – 61.03 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 99.49 PDO
Milan Lucic – 2016 metrics – 68.82 CF60, 2.94 xGF60, 101.41 PDO
Kris Russell – 2016 metrics – 51.38 CF60, 2.28 xGF60, 100.52 PDO
Expected Netminder
Cam Talbot – My Ratings (out of 10): 4 Cash, 6 GPP
Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames
| Carolina Hurricanes | Calgary Flames | ||||||||
 | Eddie Lack |  | Brian Elliott | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 35-31-16 | 35-40-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.39 | 4.00 | 16.80% | 84.30% | Team Stats | 2.79 | 4.00 | 17.00% | 75.50% |
The Hurricanes have topped each of their first three games and will continue their extended road trip tonight as they head to Calgary to battle the Calgary Flames. They managed just 2.39 goals per game last season, and while they still aren’t the most offensively gifted team in the league by any means, this does appear to be a somewhat rare chance to look here for some potential value. The top forward line of Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask and Lee Stempniak doesn’t really jump off the page as an exciting group to target, but they’ve developed a fine chemistry early on this season. Veteran (and former Flame) Lee Stemniak has racked up three goals and two assists in the first three games while his linemates have also combined for seven points. All three players have secured roles on the #1 power-play unit which should bode well for them tonight as this Calgary Flames squad surrendered an NHL worst 75.5% penalty kill last season. Alternatively, Jordan Staal finished last season with 48 points and looks poised to provide some secondary scoring as the center of the second forward line and #1 power-play unit. On defense, Justin Faulk climbs my rankings tonight thanks to this fine matchup. He’s already scored a goal and added three assists in three games this season and very well might have led this entire team in scoring last year had he stayed healthy (37 points in 64 games). He quickly amassed 12 power-play goals prior to his injury last season and has never been shy about putting the puck on net. Brian Elliot’s presence in net does likely help them improve upon their defensive numbers from last season, but they’re still a team that likes to push the pace and simply aren’t going to be very strong defensively.
After finally signing a new contract just days before the start of the season, It’s been a rather slow start for Johnny Gaudreau this season. However, he logged a season high 20:42 of playing time in their last game and won’t be held scoreless for long. Gaudreau racked up a ridiculous 23 goals and 33 assists in just 40 games at the Scotiabank Saddledome last season and I’m expecting him to get things rolling once again tonight. His partner-in-crime, Sean Monahan, joins him as the center on the Flames very lethal top scoring line (with Kris Versteeg on the other wing) and their speed should will likely cause some matchup problems for the Carolina Hurricanes coaching staff. While stopping the Guadreau line will be priority #1 for Carolina, Calgary’s next to forward lines shouldn’t be overlooked either as dangerous offensive weapons like Sam Bennett, Troy Brouwer, Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik lurk in the waiting. I’m not expecting the Calgary Flames to bring home any defense-related hardware this season, but it doesn’t mean they don’t have several very fine option on the blue-line. Mark Giordano is the headliner and has now racked up 46 goals and 105 assists over the last three seasons (207 games). He’s joined by the up-and-coming Dougie Hamilton on the point of the #1 power-play unit where both players offer plenty of upside. Alternatively, T.J. Brodie has topped 40 points in each of the last two seasons and sees a healthy dose of playing time with the man-advantage as the quarterback of the second power-play unit.
Carolina Hurricanes
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.45 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -26, 107.87 CP60
Elite Options
Jeff Skinner – 2016 metrics – 56.72 CF60, 2.63 xGF60, 100.64 PDO
Justin Faulk – 2016 metrics – 59.34 CF60, 2.67 xGF60, 97.14 PDO
Secondary Options
Victor Rask – 2016 metrics – 55.58 CF60, 2.5 xGF60, 99.24 PDO
Lee Stempniak – 2016 metrics – 49.48 CF60, 2.38 xGF60, 101.51 PDO
Jordan Staal – 2016 metrics – 56.01 CF60, 2.53 xGF60, 99.75 PDO
Expected Netminder
Cam Ward – My Ratings (out of 10): 4.5 Cash, 6 GPP
Calgary Flames
Team Metrics – 2016 – 47.99 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -16, 112.02 CP60
Elite Options
Johnny Gaudreau – 2016 metrics – 55.44 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 100.66 PDO
Mark Giordano – 2016 metrics – 55.81 CF60, 2.4 xGF60, 98.52 PDO
Secondary Options
Sean Monahan – 2016 metrics – 54.06 CF60, 2.47 xGF60, 100.63 PDO
Mikael Backlund – 2016 metrics – 60.08 CF60, 2.58 xGF60, 100.09 PDO
Dougie Hamilton – 2016 metrics – 57.53 CF60, 2.41 xGF60, 97.9 PDO
Expected Netminder
Brian Elliott – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7 GPP