The Relief Brief: Thursday, September 29th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-30 03:22:13

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Thursday night features a ten game slate. This is an interesting slate for bullpen information, because we have a mixture of teams that have little or nothing to play for, while we have a group of teams who are fighting for their post-season dreams. This leads to some severely different managerial strategies, which I will do my best to address. Because of this, I won’t rank bullpens in order of my favorite spots to attack. Good luck everyone!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Henry Owens has made four big league starts this season, and just one of them exceeded five innings. Owens pitched fairly well in the minors this season, regularly tossing long outings and averaging just shy of 1 K/9. The Yankees struggle against lefties as a whole, but Owens is a sub-average lefty at this point. I expect a five to six inning performance before the Red Sox bullpen takes over. Speaking of the bullpen, this Red Sox relief unit has been lights out with a 3.00 SIERA over the last 30 days, though they did blow a three run lead last night. Kimbrel and Uehara will likely be unavailable tonight. On top of that, the Red Sox clinched the AL East in spite of their loss. This could lead to a full game of low-leverage arms (including the starter, obviously).

Rob Zastryzny will make his first major league start tonight against the Pirates. Also, thank God for copy and paste – that last name is a doozy. Zastryzny made 23 starts across AA and AAA this season, with largely underwhelming numbers, including a 4.31 ERA and a 4.17 FIP. The Cubs are simply setting their rotation up for the postseason, and Zastryzny will serve as a bridge to meet that end. While the 23 minor league starts bode well for potential longevity, Zastryzny hasn’t started a game of any kind since mid-August. I’d anticipate a maximum of five plus innings, while the Cubs bullpen will likely take over beyond that point. The Cubs ‘pen has been excellent, but they may not force the issue tonight, as they have nothing to play for at this point. This could become a sneaky/interesting spot.

In 10 of his last 12 starts, Marcus Stroman has reached or exceeded the six-inning mark. Stroman is a case of a deceptively high ERA (4.34) as his xFIP sits nearly a full run lower (3.37). Last night, the Blue Jays got an excellent starting performance from Francisco Liriano, but the bullpen blew the lead and worked hard in the process. Roberto Osuna has now worked on consecutive days, and I’m not sure how much trust there is in the late innings with this bullpen right now. I full expect Stroman to have as long a leash as possible in this game, so long as he can keep the Orioles at bay. If he struggles, the O’s could blow this one open. Both teams are desperate for wins as the AL Wild Card race winds down.

Josh Collmenter is similar to Clay Buchholz to me in the sense that, no matter what I write about them, they make me look like a complete idiot. I’m willing to give Collmenter another go, though I’ve given up on Clay. Collmenter was the opening day starter for the Diamondbacks in 2015! Yeah, I know. He’s no ace. He has made two consecutive starts for the Braves and has tossed 12 innings with 12 K’s and four earned runs (not too shabby). The Phillies are actually one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last two weeks, but that’s more variance than anything. I expect a decent six inning outing from Collmenter tonight before yielding to the ‘pen. If the Phillies can continue their hot hitting, this could be another sneaky bullpen situation to attack, as middle relief is an issue for the Braves. The Atlanta ‘pen is fresh, and are just about average in most statistical categories. They should approach this game as they have all season, as they have nothing to play for, but also have no reason not to use their typical rotation of arms.

Alex Reyes has made four big league starts since the end of August, and they have ranged from 4.2 innings pitched to 7.0 innings pitched with a surprising max of 115 pitches in his last outing. The Cardinals are another desperate team at this point as they are in a battle with San Francisco for the final wild card spot. Because of the standings, I expect Reyes to have a shorter leash tonight. Often times in the playoffs, you will see a manager pull a pitcher when they run into trouble in the fourth or fifth inning. I don’t think Reyes will have that short of a leash, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go if he runs into trouble in the fifth or sixth. The Cards have to give themselves every chance to win. Unfortunately, they own the eighth worst bullpen SIERA over the last 30 days. Simply put, they need a big start from Reyes. Whether we think they will or won’t is the key in how to approach this bullpen situation. I happen to think that they’ll get a strong six innings from Reyes, or thereabouts.

Julio Urias has made 14 starts this season, and only two of those have gone for six innings, and none have exceeded six innings. These numbers have more to do with the Dodgers managing Urias’s pitch count than anything else. The Dodgers have clinched the NL West, and are unlikely to ask a lot of Urias tonight. I expect five to six innings at most tonight, before handing things over to their bullpen. Over the last 30 days, the Dodgers lead the league in bullpen SIERA with a ridiculous number of 2.82 to go along with a strikeout percentage of 31.9.

Ariel Miranda has made nine starts this season, and owns an unimpressive 4.10 ERA. In his case, the ERA seems a bit fortunate as his xFIP sits more than a full run higher at 5.17. The Mariners sit just two games out of the final wild card spot, and may manage this game more like a playoff game as well. Miranda has been inconsistent in his longevity and stamina, which will likely lead to a shorter outing. As a bullpen, the Mariners own a 4.10 SIERA over the last 30 days.

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

Seung Hwan Oh once again felt discomfort in his groin while pitching last night. Oh would be a big loss to the Cards ‘pen.

3. Other Notes And Insights

With baseball season winding down, I just wanted to thank all of you for reading! I hope this article has helped you over the last two months of the season. As always, I am happy to hear your thoughts, ideas and input for this article.

Follow me on Twitter @collinman005 for occasional humor and advice.

Legend