Week 15, In Which We Mini NFL Edge
Each week, in RotoGrinders Premium, I break down each game from top to bottom in the NFL Edge – taking a look at matchups, coaching tendencies, player trends, usage trends, expected game flow, DFS game theory – and so on.
This week, I am going to provide you with a “Mini NFL Edge,” to give you a 50% idea of what this article offers, and to give you an edge on the competition as we slide into what will be a glorious Week 15!
If you are not a Premium subscriber, consider picking up a free seven-day trial to help you prepare for Week 16 as well – and put Premium on your Christmas wish list, or make a note to remind yourself to make Premium part of your process next NFL season!
Today, we will be taking a look at all 13 games on the Sunday main slate.
Ready? Let’s go!
Week 15 Double-Digit DVOA Gaps
As we have done the last three weeks: this shows the largest positive gaps between an offense’s DVOA ranking and the opposing defense’s corresponding ranking. The number in parentheses is the “yards per” gap. For example: The Bills rank 1st in run offense DVOA, while the Browns rank 32nd in run defense DVOA, for a gap of 31. The Bills also rank first in yards per carry, while the Browns rank 29th in yards allowed per carry, for a “yards per” gap (in parentheses) of 28. The higher the numbers, the better the overall “unit v unit” matchup.
31 Bills Run O v Cleveland (28)
27 Falcons Pass O v San Fran (25)
25 49ers Run O v Atlanta (19)
25 Falcons Run O v San Fran (14)
19 Cowboys Run O v TB (22)
18 Steelers Run O v Cincy (19)
16 Bucs Pass O v Dallas (3)
13 Chiefs Pass O v Ten (3)
12 Browns Run O v Buffalo (17)
12 Bills Pass O v Cleveland (7)
11 Titans Run O v KC (22)
11 Vikings Pass O v Indy (4)
Eagles at Ravens
Vegas-Implied Total: Ravens 23.25, Eagles 17.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Ravens Run D – 1st DVOA / 1st Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O – 14th DVOA / 17th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D – 7th DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Eagles Pass O – 25th DVOA / 29th Yards per pass attempt
Eagles Run D – 12th DVOA / 15th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O – 26th DVOA / 27th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D – 3rd DVOA / 28th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Ravens Pass O – 26th DVOA / 27th Yards per pass attempt
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Baltimore plays at the seventh fastest pace in the NFL, while the Eagles are just a bit below the middle of the pack. Each team ranks in the top five in plays per game, but with each team also ranking in the top five in fewest opponent plays allowed per game, something will have to give here. Basic projections have each team running around 63 plays – a few plays per game below their average – though it is likelier that we see only one team dip below normal, while the other team will continue doing what they typically do.
The Ravens are a bit interesting to dig through, as they have largely abandoned the run in recent weeks – relying on Joe Flacco and his inefficiency to gradually work some points onto the scoreboard. In three of the Ravens’ last four games, they have given a combined 16 or fewer carries to Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon.
The passing game for the Ravens is a bit more appealing, as the Eagles are elite over the middle (which should largely erase Dennis Pitta, and will even give Steve Smith a bit of a tough day, as he runs nearly 40% of his routes in the slot), but the receivers who operate outside the numbers – particularly those who operate outside the numbers and deep – are in good shape for a big game against the Eagles.
Of course, there is no rule that says you have to target players from an offense that ranks 26th in DVOA in both the pass and the run.
On the other side of the ball, there is no rule that says you have to target players against a defense that ranks first in DVOA against the run and seventh in DVOA against the pass.
Browns at Bills
Vegas-Implied Total: Bills 25.75, Browns 15.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Bills Run D – 29th DVOA / 22nd Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O – 17th DVOA / 5th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D – 19th DVOA / 23rd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Browns Pass O – 27th DVOA / 26th Yards per pass attempt
Browns Run D – 32nd DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O – 1st DVOA / 1st Yards per carry
Browns Pass D – 31st DVOA / 30th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Bills Pass O – 19th DVOA / 23rd Yards per pass attempt
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The Browns play at the fifth fastest pace in football, while the Bills play at a pace right around league average. The Bills should see a slight bump in plays, as they project for about 63 plays – which is still low, but is higher than the 61.1 per game they average. The Browns should settle in at their normal range of around 60 plays.
The weather in Buffalo at the moment is calling for 27 degrees, light snow, and moderate winds.
The Bills’ run offense has the largest DVOA gap on the weekend in their matchup with the Browns’ run defense, and considering the Bills already rank 30th in passing play percentage, we can fully expect them to aim to take advantage of their edge in this area. The Browns’ run defense ranks 32nd in DVOA, 31st in yards allowed per game, 29th in yards allowed per carry, and 24th in rushing touchdowns allowed.
Of course, the trouble here is whether or not we can justify paying up for LeSean McCoy when he is priced just below David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The short answer: No, we cannot even remotely justify Shady’s price tag. While Shady has been hitting his ceiling nearly every week, his floor is a lot lower than what he has shown, as the Bills generally refuse to give him more than 21 touches, and the Bills are iffy on giving him work near the goal line. While Shady saw seven targets in each of his last two games, those were games against strong offenses that took a lead and forced the Bills to get aggressive; this week, the Bills should be passing less, so while Shady should get back up to 19 carries or so, the targets are almost certain to drop. When Bell has topped 30 touches in three of his last four games (while topping 40 last week), and when DJ has 11 or more targets in three of his last four games (in addition to the 18+ carries he sees most games), you’re stepping out on a flimsy limb rostering Shady for hardly any savings. Could he post a 150-yard, three-touchdown game? Absolutely. But I still don’t think the drop in ownership from DJ/Bell to Shady is enough to justify the drop in floor/ceiling combo. That’s my take, at least.
The Browns are tough to get excited about at all, as RGIII looks nothing like an NFL quarterback at the moment. Through his first two starts, he has completed only 44% of his passes, while taking off to run far too frequently. It should be noted that RGIII locked onto Corey Coleman last week, targeting him with 11 of his 28 pass attempts. While Coleman managed to haul in only three of these looks, he seems to be the apple of RGIII’s eye (though, of course, we are dealing with small sample sizes, and things could just as easily swing back to Terrelle Pryor this week).
The Browns have the highest passing play percentage in the NFL, which is largely because they are constantly behind. In any case, we are now 13 games into the season, and Isaiah Crowell has only one game all year with more than 16 carries (and zero games with 20). He has still managed to turn in three 100-yard games while averaging a solid 4.6 yards per carry, but with his usage too low to rely on and his pass game involvement likely to largely evaporate with no-checkdown-RGIII at the helm, he’s a tough sell for me yet again.
Packers at Bears
Vegas-Implied Total: _Packers 22.25, Bears 16.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Bears Run D – 20th DVOA / 8th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O – 15th DVOA / 16th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D – 14th DVOA / 12th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Packers Pass O – 9th DVOA / 20th Yards per pass attempt
Packers Run D – 9th DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O – 20th DVOA / 9th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D – 18th DVOA / 32nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Bears Pass O – 18th DVOA / 14th Yards per pass attempt
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Regardless of pace, the Packers do a great job limiting opponent plays – ranking fourth best in this category. Meanwhile, the Bears average the second fewest plays per game in the NFL, and they project for only around 56 plays in this spot. The Packers project for around 64 plays, which is just a tick below their average.
Of course, the big “X factor” in this game is the weather, as an Over/Under of 39.0 is uncharacteristic for any game that includes the Packers and their pass-heavy offense, and is especially uncharacteristic for a Packers pass defense that has been routinely lit on fire this season. With temperatures projected at around one degree and 18 mile per hour wind (just high enough to make an impact – and with an easy assumption to be made that gusts will be stronger than that), there is every reason to expect this game to be more worth staying away from than we would expect at first glance.
We do know, however, that the Packers are going to throw the ball plenty, as they have the NFL’s fourth highest passing play percentage on the season, and there is no reason to expect that to change this week.
While Chicago has been solid against the pass this year as well (ranking sixth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, at only 219 – in addition to ranking in the top half of the NFL in DVOA and yards allowed per pass attempt), I would feel comfortable rostering Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, or Davante Adams. It is worth paying attention to the wind in this one, as the Bears rank 12th in DVOA against passes 15 yards or shorter, but they rank 29th in DVOA defending passes more than 15 yards downfield. With the Packers already relying more than most teams on the short passing game, and with wind likely to be a factor, upside from this passing offense will be a bit thin, outside of simply relying on volume to get you the points you want.
We have seen that the 32 touches Jordan Howard had a couple weeks ago were a fluke, but the 15 touches Howard saw last week were also low, as he topped that mark in four of his previous five games. We can expect around 17 to 20 touches from Howard in this one, in a non-awful matchup. Since injuries began hitting the Bears’ offensive line, Howard’s effectiveness has gone down, and because we can still expect the Packers to pass their normal amount, it’s not like we can expect this game to turn into the sort of slugfest in which the Bears could just ride Howard. But he’s an inoffensive (if unspectacular) play, and is unlikely to draw much ownership attention.
The place likely to draw a bit of attention is Alshon Jeffery, returning from suspension and likely to play a full compliment of snaps. In all seriousness and honesty, Matt Barkley has looked solid this season, and I wouldn’t even bet against him in the wind and cold. While the Packers’ defense is certainly improving, their back-to-back solid statistical weeks came against Brock Osweiler and a suddenly struggling Russell Wilson (who has always had trouble trying to crack Dom Capers’ scheme anyway). There is always a risk with Alshon that he’ll get “John Foxed” upon his return, or that the Packers will sell out to take him out of the game, or that Barkley will be unable to get him the ball. But Alshon has serious blowup potential in this spot as a tourney play.
Jaguars at Texans
Vegas-Implied Total: _Texans 22.5, Jaguars 17.0
KEY MATCHUPS:
Texans Run D – 18th DVOA / 17th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O – 32nd DVOA / 19th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D – 12th DVOA / 8th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Jaguars Pass O – 24th DVOA / 31st Yards per pass attempt
Jaguars Run D – 16th DVOA / 10th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O – 25th DVOA / 11th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D – 15th DVOA / 3rd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Texans Pass O – 30th DVOA / 32nd Yards per pass attempt
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Jacksonville plays at the NFL’s second-fastest pace, while the Texans rank 12th in this category. The Jags and Texans both average 66.3 plays per game (a couple ticks above the league average), though each team also does a solid job limiting opponent plays, with the Jaguars ranking 12th in this category, and the Texans ranking first. The Texans project for 64 to 65 plays this week, while the Jags project to be in the range of around 61 to 62 plays – a significant drop below their average.
There are only six teams on the main slate with a Vegas-implied total of 24.0 or higher, so unless we focus specifically on players from those spots (which, of course, would not be a bad idea!), we may find ourselves digging into some sub-optimal offensive spots in order to uncover a player with a good matchup.
On the Texans’ side, we can start with the pass game, where nearly everything is worth completely leaving alone. While Jacksonville ranks 31st in DVOA against the deep ball, they rank seventh in DVOA against the short passing game – which is pretty much all Brock Osweiler is capable of hitting. It can be tempting to take the savings on DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller against a defense that is susceptible to the deep ball, but while their ceiling is around 16 (FanDuel) to 20 (DraftKings) points, their floor is a lot lower than some of the other 16/20 guys we can target.
The Texans are likeliest to take a balanced, ground-and-pound approach – wearing down the Jags, and eventually picking up short fields that they can turn into cheap touchdowns or field goals (the Jags rank fifth in yards allowed per game…but they rank 27th in points allowed, largely because of all the short fields their offense gives opponents to work with; this is also why the Jags have allowed the most opponent field goals and the most kicker fantasy points in the NFL). With Lamar Miller seemingly capped at 20 touches and Alfred Blue certifiably #notgood, I’m comfortable staying away from this backfield.
While Houston’s pass defense has regressed a little bit, they have not regressed as much as some want to assume; they still rank eighth in yards allowed per pass attempt and fifth in passing yards allowed per game (at only 213). Their big hole has come in the red zone, where the Jags have had a tough time getting anyway (the Jags have the fifth-fewest red zone plays in the NFL this year). If the Jags reach the red zone, Allen Robinson has nine targets inside the 10-yard-line this year (behind only Jordy Nelson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Emmanuel Sanders in this category). Robinson has also seen his price drop in a big way lately. Still, he has bombed in easier matchups than this one throughout the season, so his “lowered price” is no guarantee that he’ll have a good game. On the flip side, he torched the Texans for a 9-107-1 line in Week 10. You could do worse than taking a shot on Robinson, whose targets should bounce back after down weeks against Minnesota, Denver, and Buffalo.
The other place to look on the Jags’ pass game is Marqise Lee, who has more targets than Robinson in three of the Jags’ last four games. Lee does have only two targets inside the 10-yard-line on the year, but he could easily out-target Robinson again, and he should see more of burnable left corner Robert Nelson than Robinson will see (while Robinson will see more of standout A.J. Bouye).
Titans at Chiefs
Vegas-Implied Total: Chiefs 23.75, Titans 18.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Chiefs Run D – 19th DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O – 8th DVOA / 3rd Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D – 8th DVOA / 13th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Titans Pass O – 6th DVOA / 6th Yards per pass attempt
Titans Run D – 13th DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O – 23rd DVOA / 22nd Yards per carry
Titans Pass D – 25th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Chiefs Pass O – 12th DVOA / 16th Yards per pass attempt
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Both Kansas City and Tennessee slow down the pace, and each team runs a below-average number of plays. While Tennessee does a decent job limiting opponent plays, however, the Chiefs allow the third most opponent plays per game in the NFL – and they allow more plays per game at home than they do on the road. The Titans project for around 66 plays – three above their season average – while the Chiefs project for about 61 plays (just about in line with their season average).
Weather will be a factor in this game, as current forecasts for Arrowhead have this game pegged at three degrees – though that’s with no notable wind and no precipitation. Players can get used to the cold, and some DFSers may overestimate the actual impact weather will have on this game. While that would theoretically create an opportunity for us to carve out an edge, we would also need the matchup itself to cooperate…
The Titans have the second lowest passing play percentage in the NFL, and should be expected to run the ball on a good 50% of their plays this week. Their goal will be to pound the rock against the Chiefs, keep the game low-scoring, and hope to pick up a win with a big play or a Chiefs mistake close to the end of the game. While this would have given us a really nice opportunity earlier in the season to target DeMarco Murray for something like a 27-touch game, his touch totals in his last six games (starting with the most recent) have been 21, 22, 24, 19, 21, and 22. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry has gone 13, eight, zero (he played only three snaps this game while nursing an injury), nine, zero (a missed game), and 20. Basically, the Titans are capping Murray’s touches and letting their other talented back carry part of the load.
While the Chiefs’ pass defense has been burned from time to time this year by elite quarterbacks and wide receivers, there is no one on the Titans I really want to rely on to consistently beat man coverage at Arrowhead, with the Chiefs’ pass rush functioning at a high level, and with Rishard Matthews likeliest to run most of his routes at Marcus Peters. The Chiefs have also allowed the third-fewest catches and second-fewest touchdowns to the tight end position, with Eric Berry clamping down in coverage. This is a rough spot for Marcus Mariota and company.
While the Titans have been strong against the run, they have been brutalized through the air this year, allowing the most wide receiver catches and yards in the league, while allowing the fifth-most wide receiver touchdowns. Tennessee is particularly susceptible in the short passing game, where they rank 26th in DVOA – which plays perfectly to the strengths of Alex Smith. Smith himself is actually usable this week (though he’s a tough sell for upside), but the main pieces on this offense that are attractive are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
With a level of awareness we have not seen from Andy Reid in ages, he is scheming Hill the ball on a regular basis – having clearly identified him as an explosive weapon they want involved. Over the Chiefs’ last seven games, Hill has five targets twice, six targets three times, and double-digit targets another two times. He also has at least one carry in every game during that stretch. With Alex Smith likely to throw around 35 passes this week (compared to the 26 and 25 he threw the last two weeks), we could easily see eight looks for Tyreek, which brings plenty of upside.
As for Kelce: Even with the Chiefs staying below 30 passes in back-to-back weeks, Kelce has reached at least eight targets in four consecutive games. Hey, whaddaya know! – he has also topped 100 yards in all four games. Tennessee does rank 10th in DVOA against the tight end, and they have held up well this year against the position. But Kelce remains a stout play regardless, with a reasonable expectation of nine targets and the talent to turn this number of looks into a monster game against any opponent.
Colts at Vikings
Vegas-Implied Total: Vikings 25.25, Colts 20.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Vikings Run D – 14th DVOA / 20th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O – 10th DVOA / 23rd Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D – 2nd DVOA / 2nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Colts Pass O – 16th DVOA / 11th Yards per pass attempt
Colts Run D – 30th DVOA / 26th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O – 29th DVOA / 32nd Yards per carry
Colts Pass D – 26th DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Vikings Pass O – 15th DVOA / 21st Yards per pass attempt
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While the Colts play at a league-average pace, the Vikings slow things down significantly, ranking 29th in pace of play. Indianapolis projects for 63 plays, which would be a couple below their season average; Minnesota projects for 61 to 62 plays, which is slightly below their season average.
Incredibly, the Vikings are one of only six teams on the main slate with a Vegas-implied total of 24.0 or higher. This means the Vikings could be one of the highest-scoring teams on the weekend – something we do not typically see. And yet, it makes sense…
While I don’t expect one of Bradford’s 40+ attempt games, I do still think we will see a good 35 attempts from him this week. We can assume six or so will go to running backs, but that still leaves plenty of attention to be shared among Kyle Rudolph, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs.
The Colts rank 30th in DVOA against the tight end, and Rudolph has seen eight or more targets in three straight games. Rudolph’s seven targets inside the 10-yard-line this year are also more than Diggs, Thielen, and Cordarrelle Patterson have combined.
Diggs is an elite player when healthy, but after playing only 38 snaps last week then being limited in practice early this week, there is a strong chance he is not actually healthy. If you think Diggs is 100% (or if we see reports nearer the weekend that indicate this is the case), he’ll play primarily in the slot, where he should be able to torture a Colts defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA defending the short passing game.
Thielen tied Diggs in targets last week and out-targeted him the week before (Diggs’ first game back on the field after missing Week 12 with his injury). He’ll be overlooked this week by many, and if Vontae Davis is stationary this week, that’s who Thielen will see on most of his routes; Davis has had a horrible season, and this would be a further boost for Thielen.
The Colts are far more difficult to get excited about, as their best means of moving the ball will be on the ground – but given that the Colts rank ninth in passing play percentage, it is unlikely they will focus too heavily in this area. As always, Frank Gore is a high-floor, low-ceiling play, though you could certainly do worse than him this week.
In the passing game, everything is a tough sell against a Minnesota defense that ranks top three in pass defense DVOA, yards allowed per pass attempt, passing yards allowed per game, completion percentage allowed, quarterback sacks, and quarterback rating allowed. They also rank fifth in passing touchdowns allowed. This is actually a solid spot to target the Minnesota defense, as the Colts have allowed the third most sacks in football.
Lions at Giants
Vegas-Implied Total: Giants 22.5, Lions 18.5
KEY MATCHUPS:
Giants Run D – 5th DVOA / 3rd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O – 27th DVOA / 26th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D – 5th DVOA / 5th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Lions Pass O – 11th DVOA / 12th Yards per pass attempt
Lions Run D – 24th DVOA / 21st Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O – 24th DVOA / 31st Yards per carry
Lions Pass D – 30th DVOA / 22nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Giants Pass O – 22nd DVOA / 22nd Yards per pass attempt
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This is a clash of opposing approaches, with the Giants playing at the NFL’s third-fastest pace, and the Lions playing at the NFL’s third-slowest pace. As noted in this space in the past, the Giants’ fast pace does not lead to extra plays for them (they rank 25th in plays per game, at 61.5), but it does lead to extra plays for their opponent. The Lions project for around 65 plays – which would be about four more than their season average. The Giants project for only around 57 plays.
Of course, the Lions getting extra plays does not make their matchup any easier, against a Giants defense that ranks top five in DVOA against both the pass and the run, while ranking top five in “yards per” in both categories as well.
The Giants’ pass defense ranks fifth in yards allowed per pass attempt, fifth in DVOA, second in passing touchdowns allowed, second in completion percentage allowed, and second in quarterback rating allowed. Because the Giants give up more plays than just about any other team in football, they do rank 23rd in passing yards allowed, but we need to remember a couple things here: 1) The Lions focus primarily on the short passing game, and 2) The Lions typically run a low number of plays per game, so even with some plays added this week, they’re not going to be exploding for a huge number of plays.
The Giants are also strong against all areas of the field, though their relative weakness to wide receivers is the left side of the field, which is where Marvin Jones runs about half his routes. That’s about the only positive to hang your hat on for the Lions’ wide receivers, and it isn’t much.
The best spot to look on the Lions is Eric Ebron, as the Giants’ DVOA rating against the tight end has slipped to 28th, as they filter targets away from wide receivers and toward the tight end. The Bengals and Redskins are the only teams in football that have seen more targets go to the tight end against them, and while the Giants have allowed only three receiving touchdowns to the tight end this year, their production allowed to tight ends in other areas is notable.
Even with a lower projected play total this week, the Giants project for a respectable 36 pass attempts – and as we know, a large chunk of these looks will go to Odell Beckham. OBJ has at least nine targets in 11 of 13 games this year, with eight games of double-digit looks. Beckham also has 15 targets in the red zone and eight targets inside the 10-yard-line. While Beckham is a justifiable fade in tourneys, where he should see high ownership and should see shadow coverage from Darius Slay – who is having a strong season this year – the Giants move him around the formation enough and get creative enough in scheming him open that I really don’t even mind him in tourneys with the ownership if you feel comfortable with the play.
Steelers at Bengals
Vegas-Implied Total: Steelers 23.75, Bengals 20.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Bengals Run D – 23rd DVOA / 27th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O – 5th DVOA / 8th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D – 17th DVOA / 7th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Steelers Pass O – 10th DVOA / 15th Yards per pass attempt
Steelers Run D – 10th DVOA / 16th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O – 11th DVOA / 20th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D – 13th DVOA / 18th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Bengals Pass O – 13th DVOA / 10th Yards per pass attempt
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Cincinnati ranks eighth in pace of play, while Pittsburgh ranks 23rd. The Steelers should run right around their typical number of plays (64 to 65), while the Bengals project for around 63 plays against a Steelers team that limits opponent plays pretty well. This would be about three plays below what the Bengals average on the season.
While the road struggles of Ben Roethlisberger have been widely documented, one thing that may get less attention this week is the stellar job the Bengals have done recently against Antonio Brown. Starting with his most recent game against the Bengals, here are Brown’s last four receiving lines against this team:
4-39-0 (11 targets)
7-119-0 (12 targets)
7-87-0 (10 targets)
6-47-1 (11 targets)
There are three things in play here. The first is familiarity, as the Bengals and Steelers play often enough that these teams can start to get a feel for the best way to stop certain components. The second is scheme, as the Bengals are able to rely on a zone coverage scheme against the Steelers that focuses on taking away the areas of the field where Brown is operating, as opposed to a man coverage approach that can leave a corner burned on an island with Brown. The third is probably just plain variance, as none of those are bad stat lines, and there is certainly a chance Brown tops 100 yards and scores a couple touchdowns, even in a tougher matchup. Keep an eye on our Projected Ownership this week in Premium, and if we get close to Sunday and it looks like everyone will be overlooking Brown, recognize that he’ll still get double-digit looks, and his upside certainly remains intact, even in spite of the tougher matchup (and the lower-than-normal floor).
Of course, the best way to attack Cincinnati is with the tight end, as the Bengals rank 20th in DVOA against the position and have faced the second-most targets to the position across the NFL, while giving up the third-most catches, the fourth-most touchdowns, and the most yards. This is a great week to fire up Ladarius Green, who is still seeing limited snaps, but is running pass routes most of the time he is on the field. He has seen 11 and six targets over the last two weeks, and he should go largely overlooked this week after his disappointing showing in Week 14.
The man who did not remotely disappoint in Week 14 was Le’Veon Bell. I have no idea what the Steelers have in store this week for Bell’s usage after they rode him for over 40 touches last week. Surely, they would like to slow down that pace, but with the division squarely in their sights and only three games remaining in the season, they may simply throw caution to the wind and keep doing what they are doing. David Johnson lines up as a slightly better on-paper play than Bell, but that was the case last week as well. Bell is, inarguably, one of the top plays on the weekend yet again.
With A.J. Green looking to still be a week away, we should see a top receiving duo of Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell once again. Pittsburgh ranks 21st in passing yards allowed per game, but the Broncos are the only team in the NFL that has allowed fewer receiving touchdowns to wide receivers than the Steelers have allowed.
Tyler Eifert also finds himself in a tough spot against a Steelers defense that ranks eighth in DVOA against the position and has defended tight ends well. Eifert can be justified as a tourney flier, given his upside, but his floor is lower than it typically would be.
Saints at Cardinals
Vegas-Implied Total: Cardinals 26.75, Saints 23.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Cardinals Run D – 7th DVOA / 4th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O – 12th DVOA / 14th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D – 4th DVOA / 6th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Saints Pass O – 7th DVOA / 5th Yards per pass attempt
Saints Run D – 17th DVOA / 7th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O – 19th DVOA / 10th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D – 28th DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Cardinals Pass O – 28th DVOA / 25th Yards per pass attempt
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The Saints rank fourth in pace of play, while the Cardinals rank ninth. These teams rank first (Arizona) and fourth (New Orleans) in plays per game, but while the Saints should allow the Cardinals to hit right around their average of 70 plays, the Saints project for closer to 64 or 65 plays themselves, which would be a few ticks below their season average.
This spot finally gives us a game with a high projected total, and while it is a bit more difficult to see how the Saints will get there (not to say they won’t! – just to say targeting Saints players is a tougher proposition than targeting Cardinals players), we can certainly narrow down the options on the home team.
While some will probably jump on board the J.J. Nelson ship this week (and sure, he could certainly pop off for another big game), I would encourage you to ask yourself whether or not you would have rostered Michael Floyd in this same spot, at this same price. While Nelson has more speed than Floyd, he’s been behind Floyd on the depth chart, and he’ll be playing Floyd’s old role this week. (In case you missed it: Floyd was cut after a Tuesday morning DUI; Nelson is now the “number two.”)
Of course, the bigger thing to note here is that Carson Palmer is not really throwing to guys outside the numbers anymore. Two weeks ago, Palmer threw 29 passes to Jermaine Gresham, Larry Fitzgerald, and David Johnson, while throwing only 11 passes to “outside the numbers” options. Last week, those three “dump-off” options saw 24 targets, while J.J. Nelson, Michael Floyd, and John Brown combined for five.
While it’s tough to trust Palmer from an “arm” standpoint, we do know that the Cardinals should run around 70 plays, and we do know that they rank sixth in passing play percentage, and should be expected to keep this up. If the Cardinals do tone down the passing attack, it will obviously be to run the ball with David Johnson. If they take to the air as much as expected, they’ll be throwing the ball close to 45 times, and around 11 or 12 of those should go to David Johnson. He is an absolutely elite play this week against a Saints defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA against running backs out of the backfield.
Of course, the Saints also struggle in all areas of the pass game, and also rank 25th in DVOA against the tight end. Larry Fitzgerald – as I seem to say every week – is priced like an elite downfield threat, and is a possession receiver; but he does have a high floor in this spot, with yards-after-catch ceiling, and with plenty of red zone usage. As for Jermaine Gresham: On DraftKings, where he is $2,500, he’s an easy play to make. His upside is not quite high enough that I’ll be going out of my way to use him on FanDuel, where pricing is looser, but he should see around seven targets yet again, and it’s not outlandish to think he can post a really nice game with this usage.
Carson Palmer is also in play (yes, that Carson Palmer), as is the case for any quarterback taking on the Saints. The Saints have done a good job tightening up their pass defense near the end zone this season, but Palmer should be able to top 300 yards and poke in a touchdown or two as he dumps it off to his three main weapons and lets them do the work.
49ers at Falcons
Vegas-Implied Total: Falcons 31.75, 49ers 18.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Falcons Run D – 28th DVOA / 23rd Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O – 3rd DVOA / 4th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D – 23rd DVOA / 15th Yards allowed per pass attempt
49ers Pass O – 29th DVOA / 30th Yards per pass attempt
49ers Run D – 31st DVOA / 32nd Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O – 6th DVOA / 18th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D – 29th DVOA / 26th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Falcons Pass O – 2nd DVOA / 1st Yards per pass attempt
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The 49ers, of course, play at the NFL’s fastest pace, while the Falcons rank in the middle of the pack. The Falcons project for about 68 plays – which would be about six above their average (though, of course, that could be slowed down if the Falcons take a big lead and run out the clock in the fourth quarter), while the 49ers project for around 64 plays, which is a couple above their average.
The big concern this week for the Falcons (the only concern, I should say) is that they could take a monster lead in this game and rest their starters the rest of the way. Matt Ryan has not thrown more than 35 pass attempts in two months, and there is no reason to expect that to change this week, as the Falcons should be able to manhandle the “don’t care” 49ers. With that said, Ryan should do plenty of damage on the 30 to 35 throws he has – approaching 300 yards and dropping in at least a couple touchdown passes.
Last week, Ryan distributed six targets to running backs, four targets to tight ends, two targets to Justin Hardy, and six targets apiece to Taylor Gabriel and Aldrick Robinson. It is worth noting that Gabriel’s role did not change at all; he saw six targets for the second straight week (after seeing five the previous three weeks), and he saw one carry (after seeing zero, one, zero, and two over the previous four weeks).
With Mohamed Sanu set to return and Julio Jones out again, Sanu is likely grab seven or eight targets himself, making him a viable option.
It has been nearly two months since Devonta Freeman hit 20 touches in a game, as the Falcons seem thoroughly content to hold him back and keep him fresh. Even when Tevin Coleman was out, the Falcons were giving Coleman’s usual looks to Terron Ward, rather than giving them to Devonta. Last week, I nearly made the mistake of rostering Devonta, with the thinking being that the Falcons would lean more heavily on the running backs as a whole with Julio and Sanu out. I expect Devonta to be somewhat chalky this week, but make sure you are aware of the usage ceiling he has.
The 49ers are, at this point, reduced to two players we can talk about:
Colin Kaepernick and Carlos Hyde.
Theoretically, this is a solid spot for Kaep, but I am concerned about the play-calling on the 49ers at the moment. For now, I plan to stay away.
Carlos Hyde, on the other hand, benefits from the way the 49ers are playing at the moment, as they continue to feed him the ball regardless of the situation or score. He has 18 or more touches in each of the 49ers’ last four games, and I expect him in a similar range this week. While that’s not quite enough usage for him to be labeled a can’t-miss play, the matchup is great against a Falcons defense that has been tormented by running backs throughout the season, and that should be able to switch to a prevent-style defense later in the game…as the 49ers continue to run the ball.
Patriots at Broncos
Vegas-Implied Total: Patriots 23.5, Broncos 20.5
KEY MATCHUPS:
Broncos Run D – 25th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O – 16th DVOA / 21st Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D – 1st DVOA / 1st Yards allowed per pass attempt
Patriots Pass O – 1st DVOA / 2nd Yards per pass attempt
Patriots Run D – 2nd DVOA / 9th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O – 28th DVOA / 28th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D – 27th DVOA / 10th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Broncos Pass O – 21st DVOA / 18th Yards per pass attempt
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Denver ranks sixth in pace of play, while New England ranks 11th. Denver projects to run about 64 plays, which is right around their season average; the Patriots project for around 68 plays, which would be a few ticks above their season average.
Last week, against a defense in the Titans that is strong against the run but poor against the pass, the Broncos threw the ball on 86% of their plays (compared to a 59% mark on the season). It would not surprise me too much if the Broncos take to the air again – and the likelihood of this approach is further increased by the fact that the Patriots are favored in this game and may be playing with a lead.
This leads us to Trevor Siemian, Emmanuel Sanders, and Demaryius Thomas. Last week, while putting only one ball into the end zone, all three of these guys were among the top point-per-dollar plays on the weekend, as the targets on this offense are guaranteed to go to those two receivers (Emmanuel ranks fifth in the entire NFL in targets, while Demaryius ranks ninth – in spite of the Broncos, as a team, ranking 18th in pass attempts). New England has also allowed only six rushing touchdowns on the season (behind only Dallas and Baltimore), but they rank only 13th in passing touchdowns allowed on the year, at 19.
With all that said, it’s tough to identify which receiver between Emmanuel and Demaryius will be the guy the Patriots work to scheme out of the game. Last year, in the playoffs, Demaryius went only 2-12-0 against the Pats on seven targets, after incredibly going 1-36-0 against them in the regular season on 13 targets. Emmanuel, meanwhile, posted a 5-62-0 line in the playoffs and a 6-113-0 line in the regular season. If choosing a guy here, I would lean toward Emmanuel – though each guy is certainly risky.
The Patriots, meanwhile, seem likely to take a “ground and pound” approach this week, given the strengths and weaknesses of the Broncos’ defense. But then, part of what Josh McDaniels does as an offensive coordinator is “the opposite of what the opponent is expecting.” As such, it would not surprise me if the Patriots start the game by spreading out the defense and isolating mismatches in the passing game. Eventually, however, I expect the Patriots to shift to the ground.
LeGarrette Blount should be a lock for at least 18 carries, and while he will not see much (if any) pass game work, he should be able to pile up close to (or over) 100 yards, with as good a bet as any running back on the weekend for a touchdown.
You could also take a deep tourney flier on James White or Dion Lewis, in the hopes the Patriots will attack the Broncos’ run defense by first spreading out the Broncos with a passing look, then running up the middle with the “passing backs.” The problem with this, of course, is you would not only have to be right about the Pats taking this approach…but you would also have to be right about which back will be more heavily involved. That’s a lot of guesswork to throw onto one of your DFS rosters.
Raiders at Chargers
Vegas-Implied Total: Raiders 26.25, Chargers 23.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Chargers Run D – 15th DVOA / 5th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O – 7th DVOA / 13th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D – 9th DVOA / 17th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Raiders Pass O – 4th DVOA / 19th Yards per pass attempt
Raiders Run D – 26th DVOA / 30th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O – 22nd DVOA / 25th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D – 21st DVOA / 31st Yards allowed per pass attempt
Chargers Pass O – 14th DVOA / 8th Yards per pass attempt
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San Diego and Oakland each play at a below-average pace of play, though San Diego should not impact Oakland’s play expectations too much. The Raiders project to run around 66 or 67 plays, which is right in line with their average; the Chargers project to run around 62 plays, which would be a couple plays below their season average.
It is worth noting that San Diego is similar to the Jaguars, in that they are poor in points allowed per game (ranking 29th), but they are much better in yards allowed (ranking 17th). We should keep in mind that the Chargers have given the ball away more than any team in the NFL, with 30 total giveaways. This is more a side note than anything, however, as the Raiders just so happen to rank fifth in takeaways, at 24 on the season – so this is yet another spot in which the Chargers’ opponent should get to work with some short fields, and should be able to punch in touchdowns as a result.
Of course, the problem with attacking San Diego through the air is that they are elite defending outside the numbers, and are far more susceptible over the middle. San Diego’s seeming pass defense woes are more a result of them having faced the seventh-most pass attempts in the NFL than anything else, but what we’re basically looking at here is a situation in which Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are both solid bets for double-digit looks, with a chance for a big game and a touchdown, but also with a chance for low efficiency and a disappointing final line. Neither guy is particularly “safe” this week, though the upside for both is still there.
I do like the Raiders’ run game, as Latavius Murray has topped 20 touches in four of his last five games. His matchup is not great in this spot, but it’s also not bad, and with Derek Carr still dealing with his finger injury, we could see plenty of Murray against a Chargers run defense that has allowed the third most rushing touchdowns to running backs in the NFL.
The Chargers’ run game is equally appealing, as Kenneth Farrow should step in as the lead back this week, and as a “free square” on sites where salary is tougher. Early in the week, there were reports that Farrow may have a reduced workload this week so that the Chargers could use Ronnie Hillman more in pass protection, but I have seen no further reports to back up that idea as the week has progressed. Furthermore, we need to remember that Hillman has been cut by multiple teams this year for a reason; I expect Farrow to be the lead dog here, even if Hillman mixes in.
The pass game for the Chargers is a bit tougher to get excited about, in spite of the matchup. Antonio Gates is a decent-floor, low-ceiling play as an old man hobbling around and trying to break the tight end touchdown record. With the Chargers’ season lost, there is a chance he gets force-fed a couple looks near the end zone, but that’s about all you’re banking on. Travis Benjamin is no longer an integral part of this offense, and he may not even be fully healthy. And while Tyrell Williams has played fully since his torn labrum injury, he has seen only nine total targets in his last two games combined, after seeing double-digit looks in three of his previous five games. He has blowup potential, but the injury leads me to believe his floor remains low.
The main guy who stands out here is the guy who seems least attractive at first glance, but who nevertheless has seven or more targets in four of his last six games – and that is Dontrelle Inman. The Raiders rank dead last in DVOA over the middle (while ranking seventh and 11th on the outsides), and this is where Inman will primarily operate, making him an intriguing play this week.
Buccaneers at Cowboys
Vegas-Implied Total: Cowboys 26.75, Buccaneers 19.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Cowboys Run D – 4th DVOA / 12th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O – 31st DVOA / 29th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D – 24th DVOA / 16th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Buccaneers Pass O – 8th DVOA / 13th Yards per pass attempt
Buccaneers Run D – 21st DVOA / 24th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O – 2nd DVOA / 2nd Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D – 6th DVOA / 27th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Cowboys Pass O – 3rd DVOA / 4th Yards per pass attempt
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The Cowboys rank 31st in pace of play, while the Buccaneers rank 10th. Tampa does limit opponent plays, however, and should hold the Cowboys to around 62 plays – which would be a couple below the Cowboys’ season average. The Bucs should lose a few plays off their average as well, as they project for around 65 or 66 plays, after averaging 68.2 plays per game on the season (second most in the NFL).
I was surprised to see the Cowboys with such a lofty Vegas-implied total, as I do not think the Bucs’ defense is any joke at the moment. Last week (albeit at home), the Bucs held the number six DVOA offense (which, I believe, was ranked fourth before the Bucs got through with them) to only 11 points. The week before that, they held San Diego to 21 points on the road, the week before that they held Seattle to five points, and the week before that they held the Chiefs to 17 points in Kansas City.
With that said, the Bucs are still susceptible on the ground, and this is the main place we can expect the Cowboys to attack. There isn’t a ton to say here, in exploring Ezekiel Elliott. When you consider that David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell each see a wide receiver’s share of targets, in addition to their full compliment of carries, we should label Zeke as “a bit overpriced.” Still, Zeke is likely to get more carries than LeSean McCoy, with a similarly good matchup, a similarly good offensive line, and a bit more guaranteed goal line work. I would put Shady and Zeke neck-and-neck for raw-points projections behind Bell and DJ, and I would also put both guys behind Bell and DJ in a point-per-dollar sense – though each guy is, obviously, still a strong play.
The Buccaneers have really transformed into a run-heavy team as well, as they now rank 26th on the season in passing play percentage, at 56.32% – and their mark over the last three weeks sits at 46.52% (which would be the lowest in the NFL if the Bucs carried that over for a full season). Jameis Winston has not gone over 30 pass attempts in three straight weeks, though it would not surprise me if the Bucs gradually shift this week to a few more passes, as they are likely to have a tough time on the ground.
The Cowboys have been strong this year at scheming number one options out of the game. Injuries to the Cowboys’ secondary have made them less effective at this than they were earlier in the season, but we can be certain the Cowboys will aim to stop the run with their defensive front, while scheming their secondary to, essentially, force Jameis to beat them with someone other than Mike Evans. On a team with multiple quality weapons, this would provide a perfect opportunity to shift to those other weapons on our rosters. This week, however, we are basically looking at what we had last week when the Cowboys took on the Giants: if Evans busts off for one big play (as Odell did on his 61-yard touchdown), he’ll post a nice day. Otherwise, he could severely disappoint (as would have been the case for Odell last week without the touchdown, as he would have finished with a 3-33-0 line on eight targets).
Once again, we can also look to Cameron Brate this week. The Cowboys have been miserable against the tight end this season, ranking 31st in DVOA against the position and allowing the second-most catches and sixth-most yards to the position. Brate is never a strong bet for a big-yardage game, but he should get six or seven looks, and he is used near the goal line, making him a solid all-around option this week.
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Thanks for hanging out, friends!
Hopefully you enjoyed that. Now let’s go crush this weekend – and let’s meet up at the top of the leaderboards when Sunday is all said and done!