MLB GPP Plays: Friday, June 24th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals – Scherzer has been downright filthy in his last four outings, allowing just four earned runs while racking up 38 punch-outs in 28 innings pitched. Mad Max has also done a great job at limiting the walks and home runs of late. The Milwaukee Brewers are a right-handed heavy team and they are striking out more than anyone else in baseball against right-handed pitching. Scherzer not only has an elite strikeout rate (32.3%), but he has also dominated right-handed batters this season (.148 BAA, .204 wOBA with a 38.5% strikeout rate). This matchup is extremely favorable for Scherzer and I think we see him post a monster score tonight. Despite the high price tag, Scherzer makes an excellent play in GPPs.
Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians – Danny Salazar is very quietly having a dominant season for the Cleveland Indians. The 26-year-old Dominican has held opponents to a tiny .183 BAA thus far, thanks in large part to a solid groundball rate (48.7%) and a terrific strikeout rate (29.5%). The Detroit Tigers are a very good offensive team, but they are missing one of their best hitters (J.D. Martinez) and they can strike out with the best of them. Salazar is priced a little higher than I would like across the industry, but it is hard to ignore his double-digit strikeout upside.
Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants – Call me crazy, but I actually really like Jake Peavy in this spot tonight and I plan to use him on multiple GPP lineups. Peavy has now gone six innings or more in four of his last five starts, allowing only six earned runs, while striking out 23 batters compared to just five walks. It may be hard for many to trust Peavy, but the Philadelphia Phillies are certainly not a team to fear. The Phillies are ranked 29th in wOBA and they are dead last in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching in 2016. Considering his price, the matchup and ballpark, I think Peavy makes a terrific roll of the dice in tournaments.
Other Pitchers to Target – Steven Matz, Masahiro Tanaka, Aaron Sanchez, Jameson Taillon, Cody Reed
CATCHER
Welington Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks – The “Beef Welington” has everything going for him tonight as he faces a left-handed pitcher in the best hitting environment in baseball. Castillo has murdered southpaws in 2016 (.450 wOBA) and he has massive potential this evening.
Derek Norris, San Diego Padres – Norris is always in play versus left-handed pitching and he has started to heat up offensively. The San Diego Padres’ backstop has homered in back-to-back games and he has registered three home runs and nine RBIs in his last six contests. I think we see another big game from Norris tonight in the Great American Smallpark.
Other Catchers to Target – Chris Herrmann, Stephen Vogt, Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, Willson Contreras
FIRST BASE
Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays – Carlos Rodon is a talented young pitcher and I rarely go out of my way to pick on him. However, the Chicago White Sox lefty is vulnerable to right-handed batters (.361 wOBA with 10 home runs allowed). Encarnacion has been red-hot in the month of June and I think we see him walk the parrot tonight.
James Loney, New York Mets – Despite an awful season so far (.719 ERA), it appears the Atlanta Braves are going to roll out Aaron Blair every fifth day, even though he does not look Major League ready. Blair has been blasted in almost every single start and left-handed hitters are having their way with him (.388 wOBA). Perhaps a multi-homer game is out of the question for Loney, but I could easily see a multi-hit performance. He is not sexy, but he is cheap, and he is facing possibly the worst pitcher on the slate, backed up by a bad bullpen.
Other First Basemen to Target – Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Reynolds, David Ortiz, Wil Myers, Albert Pujols, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Davis
SECOND BASE
Jonathan Schoop, Baltimore Orioles – Schoop is absolutely locked in at the dish right now. The Baltimore Orioles’ two-bagger has produced 11 hits in his last five contests, including two doubles and two home runs. Matt Moore has given up 12 home runs to righties already this season, to go along with a .350 wOBA and a 36.4% hard-hit rate. Schoop has multi-homer upside in this matchup and he never seems to draw much attention in large Field tournaments.
Adam Rosales, San Diego Padres – Cody Reed has looked very good in the Minors and he is arguably the Cincinnati Reds’ best pitching prospect. With that being said, I still think we can attack him with hitters from the right side of the plate. Adam Rosales hits lefties very well and he is extremely inexpensive on most sites. Considering the matchup and ballpark, I think Rosales makes a tremendous punt play in tournaments.
Other Second Basemen to Target – DJ LeMahieu, Jean Segura, Neil Walker, Starlin Castro, Rougned Odor, Ben Zobrist
THIRD BASE
Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees – Tommy Milone has been recalled from the Minors after the Minnesota Twins sent Pat Dean down. Milone has been a below average pitcher throughout his Major League tenure and he brings his 1.9 HR/9 rate with him to Yankee Stadium tonight. A-Rod is strictly a boom-or-bust option at this point in his career, and I think he has some boom in his bat tonight.
Jefry Marte, Los Angeles Angels – Eric Surkamp is a Gas Can and I am not sure how he still has a job in Major League Baseball. The Oakland lefty has been tattooed all season long (7.20 ERA, .333 BAA) and he has been hammered by righties throughout his career (.318 BAA, .390 wOBA). Assuming he is hitting in the middle of the Los Angeles Angels order, Marte should see plenty of RBI opportunities at the very least.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson, Kris Bryant, Yunel Escobar, Jhonny Peralta, Kelly Johnson
SHORTSTOP
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox – Xander Bogaerts is insanely good and he has turned into a multi-hit machine. Nick Martinez posted below average numbers at Triple-A this season and he has been rocked in his brief time at the Major League level. Hitting in the middle of this potent Red Sox lineup, Bogaerts has multi-hit/run/RBI upside.
Asdrubal Cabrera, New York Mets – Like his teammate James Loney, Asdrubal Cabrera should also have a productive game tonight against the very hittable Aaron Blair. Cabrera has four hits in his last three games, including a double and two home runs. The Mets shortstop has been hitting out of the two-hole recently and I think he stays hot in this plus matchup. Cabrera is also likely to be highly under-owned.
Other Shortstops to Target – Trevor Story, Manny Machado, Troy Tulowitzki, Aledmys Diaz, J.J. Hardy
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies – Walks and home runs continue to haunt Archie Bradley, not to mention hitters from the left side of the plate (.365 wOBA). All of which are very unlikely to improve tonight in Coors Field. Getting exposure to both Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon is a no brainer in GPPs tonight.
Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles – Matt Moore has had a frustrating season to date, throwing the odd gem in between disastrous starts. More often than not, right-handed batters have inflicted all the damage against the Rays southpaw (.350 wOBA and a 36.4% hard-hit rate). They are many places to go for offense outside of Coors Field tonight and Camden Yards is certainly one of them. Both Jones and Trumbo have double-dong potential in this one.
Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds – I can see the Cincinnati Reds offense getting overlooked tonight despite facing a below average pitcher in a great hitting environment. Adam Duvall has posted monster power numbers this season against right-handed pitching (18 HRs with a .370 wOBA) and I think we see him go yard tonight.
Billy Burns, Oakland A’s – You know the drill by now. When Jered Weaver is on the bump, we want to attack him with left-handed batters. Lefties have abused Weaver for years and I expect more of the same in this contest. Runs and stolen bases are Billy Burns’ game and I think we see a combination of both from him in this one.
Other Outfielders to Target – Coors Field, Carlos Beltran, Ian Desmond, Matt Kemp, Stephen Piscotty, Jason Heyward, Jay Bruce