MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, August 9th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals – Since the beginning of June, Scherzer has been the best pitcher in baseball, posting an ERA under 2.00, along with 108 punch-outs in just over 83 innings pitched. Walks and home runs were issues earlier in the season, but they have all but disappeared. The Cleveland Indians are a good offense, but they will not only lose their DH with this game being played in Washington, they will also have to have their pitcher hit, which means two-to-three bonus Ks for Scherzer. I think we see Mad Max dominate once again this evening and with his high salary, he may not be all the popular in GPPs.
Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers – Maeda has been pretty much as advertised, showing good control, along with a solid strikeout rate. The 28-year-old right-hander has even mixed in a few dominant performances against some of the weaker teams in the National League. Maeda has yet to face the Philadelphia Phillies this year, but they are definitely a weak team. The Phillies are ranked 28th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season. With this plus matchup, Maeda could once again look elite.
Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres – I recommended Perdomo in this spot last week and I am going back to the well again tonight. Perdomo did not pitch as well as I expected last time out, but he was still solid, pitching into the seventh inning, while striking out six and allowing three earned runs. The 23-year-old Dominican has a nasty combination of swing and miss stuff, to go along with a fantastic ground ball rate (57.7%). Considering his salary and the matchup, Perdomo has huge GPP potential this evening.
Other Pitchers to Target – Chris Sale, Steven Matz, John Lackey, Marco Estrada
CATCHER
Evan Gattis, Houston Astros – Hector Santiago is a fly-ball pitcher who will run into home run issues, especially against right-handed batters. This is not a good combination when you are facing Evan Gattis and a potent Houston Astros team that is very right-handed heavy.
Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees – I generally punt catcher in GPPs, as I prefer to spend my money elsewhere. Sanchez is cheap across the industry and he has the home run upside we are looking for.
Other Catchers to Target – Willson Contreras, Brian McCann, Buster Posey, Russell Martin, James McCann
FIRST BASE
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves – Freeman and the Atlanta Braves’ offense tend to be ignored, regardless of the match-up, however I suggest you do not let that happen tonight. The term “Gas Can” was invented for pitchers like Wily Peralta. The Milwaukee Brewers’ right-hander has been a disaster in 2016, as evident by his 6.68 ERA and 3.58 BAA. Left-handed hitters have torched Peralta over the years, and we have seen more of the same this season (.401 wOBA, 38.6% hard-hit rate). Look for a big game from Freeman this evening.
Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles – Zach Neal is a below average pitcher, who is not fully stretched out. The Oakland A’s right-hander lacks strikeout stuff as well, so we should see plenty of contact against him tonight. Crush Davis has been ice cold lately, which means we should see him heavily under-owned. In this match-up though, Davis has multi-homer upside.
Other First Basemen to Target – Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Joey Votto, Brandon Belt
SECOND BASE
Devon Travis, Toronto Blue Jays – Travis has been on a tear of late, putting together outstanding at-bats and getting terrific results. In his last five games, Travis has racked up 12 hits, with five of them going for extra base-hits. At his price point, there is no need to fade a guy this hot, leading off for a great offense.
Ben Zobrist, Chicago Cubs – Jered Weaver has been extremely consistent this season, consistent in getting pounded all year long by lefties and righties alike. Weaver owns a 5.11 ERA and he has already allowed 23 long-balls in 2016. The Chicago Cubs’ bats should be popular tonight, but with Zobrist priced extremely high on most sites, I think we see him fly under the radar tonight.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, Matt Carpenter, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Scooter Gennett
THIRD BASE
Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays – I am a big fan of Drew Smyly, and I rarely go out of my way to pick on him. With that being said, he is homer prone (23 home runs allowed this season) and the Toronto Blue Jays hit a ton of them at the Rogers Centre. Donaldson not only crushes southpaws (.427 wOBA), but he has also had success versus Smyly (8-17, .471 BA, .500 OBP, with three doubles and three bombs).
Danny Valencia, Oakland A’s – Wade Miley is having a season to forget (5.08 ERA). The Baltimore Orioles’ southpaw has been consistently touched up in 2016, and hitters from the right side of the plate are doing most of the damage against him (.353 wOBA). Look for the notorious lefty-masher, to take Miley deep.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Todd Frazier, Pedro Alvarez, Jedd Gyorko, Martin Prado
SHORTSTOP
Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis Cardinals – Shortstop is another position where I tend to look for salary relief. Peralta is reasonably priced across the industry and he has big game upside in this matchup. Brandon Finnegan has looked very good of late, but do not be fooled. Right-handed batters have really hit Finnegan hard this season. The Reds’ lefty has given up 21 home runs to righties, along with a 40.7% hard-hit rate.
Orlando Arcia, Milwaukee Brewers – Sticking with the theme of value plays at shortstop, Arcia is next up. The Brewers’ rookie should be in line for the biggest game of his career. Tyrell Jenkins has a very good arm, but he has not been able to put it all together at any level. On the season, the Atlanta Braves’ youngster has 4.33 ERA and more walks than strikeouts. Until he can harness his control, Jenkins is a pitcher we want to attack. Arcia has multi-hit/run/SB upside at a discounted price.
*Other Shortstops to Target –*Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Crawford, Addison Russell
OUTFIELDERS
Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle Mariners – With lefty Daniel Norris on the mound tonight, we can fire up two lefty-killers from the Seattle Mariners. Both Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez have double-dong potential in this one. Not to mention, with this game being played on the West Coast, we are likely to see a low ownership on them in large field tournaments.
Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins – Matt Moore is another lefty who struggles with the long ball, allowing 20 home runs in 2016, with 17 of those coming from right-handed batters. Both Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna have massive power upside here. I expect Stanton to be popular, and I also expect Ozuna to be overlooked, despite his insanely good numbers versus southpaws (.340 BA, .444 wOBA).
Stephen Piscotty, St. Louis Cardinals – Let me once again post the numbers from Brandon Finnegan against righties: 21 home runs allowed, along with a 40.7% hard-hit rate. Now let’s look at Piscotty’s numbers against southpaws in 2016: .343 BA, .456 wOBA. Lock and load.
Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds – Mike Leake has been atrocious lately, allowing 27 hits and a ridiculous 19 earned runs in his last three outings. On the other hand, Billy Hamilton has been quite good, reaching base often (four hits and two walks in his last two contests) and running wild (six steals in his last two games). Look for more of the same from the Reds’ speedster tonight.
Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves – Yep, both Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte are in play tonight. I can see a multi-hit game from both of these hitters versus “Gas Can” Wily Peralta and that terrible Milwaukee Brewers bullpen.
Other Outfielders to Target – Mike Trout, Jose Bautista, Mookie Betts, George Springer, Ryan Braun, Dexter Fowler, Matt Holliday, Khris Davis, Corey Dickerson