MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-01 01:40:10

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Francisco								Pittsburgh
			Johnny Cueto							Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-122							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.331	33.3%	5.5%	22.6%	45.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.369	0.337	38.5%	5.7%	21.6%	40.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.281	0.287	26.8%	5.7%	21.9%	48.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.306	25.4%	7.4%	17.6%	51.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Johnny Cueto
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	2016	32	3.59	2.79	22.5%	5.1%	50.2%	27.2%	19.4%
	2017	16	4.16	4.20	21.8%	6.6%	40.6%	35.9%	15.5%

Cueto is still an above-average starter, but he should no longer be considered an “elite” arm. His strikeout rate is barely above the major league average, his SIERA is over 4.00, and he has given up a lot of hard contact this season. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog against the Pirates in a game that features an over/under of 8.5 runs. The Pirates may not be the most potent offense around, but they have the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: In a 15 game slate, we can find better options than Cueto.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$18,300
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	45.6%	30.1%	21.3%
	2017	16	4.26	4.11	19.7%	6.0%	46.7%	33.6%	22.2%

Cole has three consecutive quality starts under his belt, but the strikeouts haven’t been there this season. Despite a great fastball (97+ MPH), he has a below-average strikeout rate (under 20%). The Giants are similar to the Pirates in that their offense isn’t the most potent in baseball, but they have one of the lowest strikeout rates against right-handed pitching. The over/under in this game is higher than I expected and the strikeout potential of both pitchers is limited.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is too expensive for the strikeout potential that he brings to the table in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

This is one of those games where I have little interest in the pitching and little interest in the two offenses. Gerrit Cole has been extremely tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .306 xwOBA and a 25% hard contact rate. If you are targeting any Giants’ hitters, make sure the bat from the left side of the plate. Denard Span, Brandon Crawford, and Brandon Belt are the best plays, but they are secondary options at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.335	0.337	0.148	26.2%	8.0%	12.1%	47.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.316	0.333	0.162	26.6%	9.5%	8.3%	44.8%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
3	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.325	0.313	0.114	28.6%	8.3%	21.0%	59.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.340	0.366	0.138	33.8%	8.9%	11.2%	48.1%	C	$3,500	1B/C	$4,000	C	$7,600
5	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.369	0.395	0.211	38.4%	16.5%	22.3%	26.7%	1B	$3,300	1B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.312	0.326	0.164	34.3%	8.7%	18.8%	44.2%	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
7	Austin Slater	RIGHT	0.338	0.303	0.132	17.1%	6.8%	20.3%	65.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,400	RF	$4,800
8	Jae-gyun Hwang	RIGHT								3B	$2,300	3B	$2,600	3B	$5,100
9	Johnny Cueto	RIGHT	0.087	0.152	0.000	5.6%	4.1%	23.0%	70.3%	P	$9,300	P	$7,800	P	$15,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are good at generating a few runs against tough pitching, but they rarely have GPP winning upside. They don’t hit many home runs and play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Tonight’s matchup against Johnny Cueto is less than appealing. He does allow a decent amount of hard contact against lefties, but Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, and Gregory Polanco are all secondary plays at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.330	0.331	0.131	31.7%	9.0%	14.6%	46.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.308	0.289	0.111	28.4%	4.3%	14.9%	42.7%	2B	$3,100	2B/3B	$4,000	2B	$7,800
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.327	0.339	0.170	34.9%	9.7%	20.8%	37.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,000
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.351	0.356	0.205	33.3%	12.4%	17.0%	50.4%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,500
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.317	0.325	0.127	31.6%	9.3%	26.1%	59.1%	3B	$2,700	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,400
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.326	0.339	0.188	32.9%	8.9%	16.7%	39.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,700
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.311	0.299	0.121	25.9%	8.3%	14.7%	49.3%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,400
8	Chris Stewart	RIGHT	0.252	0.275	0.078	22.2%	9.0%	13.5%	43.8%	C	$2,100	C	$2,100	C	$4,000
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.146	0.144	0.000	5.7%	1.7%	39.0%	77.8%	P	$8,900	P	$9,500	P	$18,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Baltimore
			Jacob Faria							Chris Tillman
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -110							11.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.244	0.235	20.0%	3.6%	25.0%	65.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	0.347	31.3%	12.5%	19.4%	42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.250	0.280	38.3%	5.3%	29.3%	28.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.338	0.345	33.8%	7.1%	17.2%	39.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jacob Faria
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30

	2017	4	3.30	2.10	28.2%	4.9%	39.4%	32.8%	23.9%

Faria is a top pitching prospect that is making his fifth career major league start. In his last three outings, he has struck out a combined 24 batters while only giving up five earned runs. I know that he is pitching on the road against a good Orioles’ offense, but I’m a little surprised that Faria isn’t a bigger favorite against Chris Tillman in game that features an over/under of 11.0 runs. He’s obviously a risky play tonight, but the strikeout upside is there.

Quick Breakdown: Faria has a ton of potential and is a decent buy in tournaments at this price point.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Tillman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30
	2016	30	4.61	3.77	19.6%	9.2%	41.2%	31.5%	18.3%
	2017	10	5.66	8.39	13.8%	10.7%	40.1%	36.3%	20.2%

Tillman has been one of the top pitchers to stack against this season. In ten starts, he has a 5.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. He has a high walk rate, he has given up a lot of hard contact, and he has been susceptible to the big inning. The Rays can be a favorable matchup for an opposing pitcher, but not one with such a low strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Tillman is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have the highest implied run total in the slate and I don’t expect them to be as popular as a few of the other stacks in the slate. They have arguably the best matchup on the board, especially given Chris Tillman recent form. Hitters from both sides of the plate are viable here, as Tillman has allowed a .345+ xwOBA and a 31%+ hard contact rate to batters from both sides of the plate. If you are a fan of BvP, Evan Longoria should stand out like a sore thumb. He is 20-for-66 with nine home runs against Tillman in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.358	0.274	0.134	21.3%	11.3%	19.0%	58.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
2	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.356	0.324	0.267	33.3%	6.4%	21.7%	34.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,900	LF	$9,600
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.351	0.351	0.237	36.0%	6.1%	19.3%	35.6%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,600	3B	$8,800
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.348	0.371	0.252	40.3%	11.2%	22.5%	39.0%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,300
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.348	0.328	0.210	32.8%	10.0%	31.5%	40.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.346	0.342	0.157	35.5%	6.3%	16.2%	55.3%	C	$2,300	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.324	0.303	0.195	43.8%	5.2%	31.3%	44.2%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
8	Shane Peterson	LEFT	0.306	0.249	0.195	34.4%	4.4%	22.2%	40.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,500	LF	$4,800
9	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.253	0.299	0.069	29.3%	4.8%	12.3%	48.1%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are facing a talented young pitcher in Jacob Faria, but they are facing him at home and have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate. Faria has been good so far, but he is still an inexperienced pitcher that is facing a tough American League opponent in a hitter-friendly ballpark. With so many unknowns, this is a situation to stack the Orioles or stay away completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.338	0.372	0.177	33.8%	10.7%	21.0%	46.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,900
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.341	0.358	0.238	35.6%	7.0%	19.3%	38.0%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.343	0.316	0.206	29.8%	3.4%	20.1%	42.2%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.338	0.338	0.196	32.5%	5.1%	16.8%	43.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.366	0.376	0.253	36.8%	8.4%	23.4%	39.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,800
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.437	0.368	0.303	36.5%	7.4%	25.7%	50.0%	1B	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,000	1B	$7,600
7	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.310	0.298	0.149	33.7%	6.1%	27.0%	40.9%	C	$2,500	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
8	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.346	0.348	0.110	29.7%	9.3%	14.7%	50.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600	IF/OF	$5,200
9	Paul Janish	RIGHT	0.145	0.264	0.000	22.7%	3.3%	23.3%	25.0%	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Boston								Toronto
			Doug Fister							Marco Estrada
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-132							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.403	0.369	37.4%	9.2%	13.1%	38.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.276	27.9%	7.9%	24.3%	35.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.264	0.282	23.9%	6.8%	17.4%	53.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.317	0.322	34.0%	8.7%	23.4%	31.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Doug Fister
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30
	2016	32	4.97	4.64	14.8%	8.0%	45.3%	31.5%	19.7%
	2017	1	4.42	4.50	24.0%	12.0%	50.0%	25.0%	6.3%

Fister has bounced around the majors and around the minors over the last five years. He is a low strikeout pitcher with an average ground ball rate and an average hard contact rate. Tonight he’ll draw a spot start for the Red Sox in a difficult matchup against the Blue Jays. Fister is listed as a sizable underdog in a game that features an over/under of 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: If you put the 30 starting pitchers from tonight in a hat and pick a name out, odds are you’ll find a better option than Fister.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30
	2016	29	4.35	3.48	22.8%	9.0%	33.5%	31.3%	21.1%
	2017	16	3.92	4.89	25.6%	7.0%	33.5%	30.5%	17.3%

Estrada has allowed at least three earned runs in five straight starts. He has scored fewer than three fantasy points (FD scoring) in three of those starts. Tonight he faces a Red Sox offense with one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. Nobody is going to want to play him, even in tournaments. Nobody except yours truly, anyway. Estrada has a great track record against Boston, holding their current roster .297 wOBA in 149 plate appearances. I’m not saying to use Estrada in a cash game setting, but he has some tournament appeal at his discounted price point and ownership.

Quick Breakdown: Estrada is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox have not hit Marco Estrada well in the past, but they do get to face him at an opportune time. Estrada’s recent form has been poor and he has allowed eight walks in his last two starts. Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which can lead to a lot of routine fly balls or a lot of home runs. A Red Sox stack makes sense here, especially if you want to hedge against your Estrada shares.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.373	0.335	0.204	34.3%	8.3%	10.4%	41.9%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,200	RF	$10,200
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.344	0.322	0.118	31.8%	7.8%	9.5%	50.2%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.350	0.296	0.152	31.2%	7.3%	16.9%	46.9%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,400
4	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.321	0.365	0.202	39.8%	8.5%	23.3%	39.9%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
5	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.355	0.341	0.197	37.8%	8.7%	15.3%	35.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,600
6	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.340	0.342	0.183	37.1%	9.3%	19.6%	48.2%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
7	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.362	0.368	0.241	38.2%	11.1%	20.9%	44.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.267	0.252	0.072	29.2%	3.4%	22.3%	58.1%	C	$2,500	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
9	Deven Marrero	RIGHT	0.128	0.171	0.014	23.9%	6.3%	36.3%	65.9%	SS	$2,300	3B	$2,200	3B	$4,100

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays let a lot of the DFS community down last night. They couldn’t score a single run against Ubaldo Jimenez, which is a shame. Anyway, hopefully the recency bias will keep their ownership down a bit tonight, as they get to face Doug Fister, who has been a below-average starter for years. If we look at Fister’s splits from last season, we can see that he was considerably worse against left-handed hitters (.369 xwOBA) than he was against right-handed hitters (.282 xwOBA). That does hurt the appeal of a Blue Jays’ stack a little, but they should still be considered one of the top offenses to target.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.361	0.364	0.219	37.8%	16.0%	21.5%	36.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	RF	$8,800
2	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.331	0.326	0.170	30.4%	12.8%	26.2%	48.5%	C	$2,600	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.398	0.396	0.269	40.1%	14.3%	19.2%	40.3%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,300
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.350	0.371	0.243	40.8%	10.7%	30.0%	30.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.316	0.390	0.198	40.9%	8.2%	19.4%	49.1%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.322	0.347	0.176	33.6%	7.4%	17.5%	41.3%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,800
7	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.338	0.343	0.162	30.7%	8.8%	17.6%	45.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	1B	$6,800
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.286	0.294	0.112	26.4%	5.2%	15.5%	47.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.267	0.275	0.147	30.2%	7.0%	21.1%	48.1%	2B	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,900	2B	$5,700

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Kendrya Morales

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								NY Mets
			Ben Lively							Jacob deGrom
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-240							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.369	34.6%	6.2%	6.2%	45.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.307	31.4%	7.8%	22.9%	44.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.357	0.315	33.3%	5.6%	9.9%	35.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.300	33.9%	6.7%	27.8%	47.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ben Lively
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30

	2017	5	5.94	3.90	8.1%	5.9%	40.2%	33.9%	20.9%

Lively has an ERA under 4.00 in his first five major league starts, but writing is on the wall. He has a 5.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 8%. It doesn’t matter who you are, an 8% strikeout rate is going to catch up with you eventually. The Mets hit right-handed pitching well and have their ace on the mound tonight in Jacob deGrom. Tonight is a good night to fade the Phillies completely.

Quick Breakdown: Lively should be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$12,100	Salary:		$12,500	Salary:		$24,300
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	24	3.66	3.04	23.7%	6.0%	45.6%	31.3%	19.0%
	2017	15	3.75	3.71	27.8%	9.1%	46.6%	34.9%	21.2%

DeGrom is back to the 2015 version where he was striking batters out at an elite rate. The velocity is up from last season and he currently has a swinging strike rate of 14.4%, which is a career high. When we have 15 games slates on tap, you can make the case to fade anyone because there are going to be viable alternatives. With that being said, deGrom is the clear number one pitching option. The Phillies don’t hit right-handed pitching well and aren’t shy when it comes to strikeouts. DeGrom is expensive, but as with most things in life, you get what you pay for.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll be doing everything I can to load up on deGrom shares in both cash games and tournaments. He is easily the top pitcher in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have the worst matchup in the slate. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Jacob deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA in the last two seasons. Even if you want to fade deGrom, I don’t suggest taking any hitters against him. There are 29 better matchups available in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Nava	SWITCH	0.304	0.334	0.108	35.0%	8.0%	18.8%	38.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,600
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.302	0.274	0.175	28.0%	5.7%	21.1%	40.4%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800
3	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.310	0.294	0.141	33.7%	8.8%	31.0%	46.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.320	0.323	0.198	38.3%	5.2%	23.2%	42.5%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,400
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.290	0.319	0.146	28.7%	6.6%	16.2%	45.7%	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,600
6	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.337	0.311	0.154	29.6%	8.3%	20.3%	42.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,800	IF/OF	$5,400
7	Andres Blanco	SWITCH	0.313	0.308	0.138	26.6%	7.3%	18.8%	50.6%	SS	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,200	2B	$4,200
8	Andrew Knapp	SWITCH	0.345	0.339	0.171	38.5%	12.5%	28.4%	59.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,400
9	Ben Lively	RIGHT	0.219	0.243	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	50.0%	P	$6,800	P	$4,900	P	$9,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

There are currently five teams that are projected to score more than five runs tonight and the Mets are one of them. Given the fact that they are the Mets and that they play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up being the lowest owned of those five teams. This is potentially great news for tournaments. Their matchup against Ben Lively is an exploitable one, as a pitcher with a 5.94 SIERA and an 8% strikeout rate isn’t going to sustain an ERA under 4.00 for much longer. The one through five stack is one of my favorites in the slate, as they will all bat from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.345	0.341	0.238	36.3%	13.2%	19.9%	33.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.341	0.329	0.199	35.2%	7.8%	17.7%	38.2%	2B	$3,200	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.362	0.360	0.243	39.4%	7.8%	19.5%	35.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,700
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.375	0.368	0.296	42.0%	9.2%	20.5%	35.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,800
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.363	0.390	0.247	41.4%	12.7%	21.8%	31.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,400
6	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.303	0.293	0.147	30.1%	6.1%	15.4%	37.2%	3B	$2,900	1B/3B	$4,200	3B	$8,100
7	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.264	0.265	0.120	25.6%	7.6%	16.5%	38.2%	SS	$2,500	3B/SS	$3,500	SS	$6,900
8	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.272	0.298	0.119	32.8%	6.1%	17.0%	47.0%	C	$2,700	C	$3,800	C	$7,500
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.262	0.244	0.081	27.8%	4.2%	19.7%	55.3%	P	$12,100	P	$12,500	P	$24,300

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Flores

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Cincinnati
			Mike Montgomery							Scott Feldman
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-100							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.243	0.305	27.3%	8.3%	20.9%	59.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.365	0.340	25.7%	9.3%	16.4%	47.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.297	0.316	27.1%	11.0%	21.1%	59.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.291	29.3%	4.9%	19.2%	47.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30
	2016	7	3.57	2.52	22.2%	9.2%	58.4%	25.6%	18.3%
	2017	4	4.44	2.03	19.0%	11.8%	60.8%	29.8%	23.0%

Mongtomery has pitched well at times this season, but his 2.03 ERA doesn’t match his true skill level. His 4.44 SIERA is more accurate of what we can expect moving forward. He has a below-average strikeout rate and he walks a lot of batters. He tends to get away with it more than most thanks to a 61% ground ball rate and a 23% soft contact rate. A high ground ball rate allows a pitcher to fare well in almost any ballpark, but I’m not a fan of Montgomery’s matchup. The Reds are quietly ranked ninth in team wOBA against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is cheap, but the Reds hit left-handed pitching well and he has to face them on the road in Great American Ballpark.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Scott Feldman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,400
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2016	5	4.07	3.97	16.6%	5.6%	49.8%	24.6%	21.2%
	2017	16	4.51	4.07	19.2%	7.9%	44.6%	30.7%	21.5%

Feldman is not a pitcher that I have had exposure to yet this season. He doesn’t really have the upside that I am looking for. However, he’s not a pitcher that I like to load up hitters against either. He has an above-average ground ball rate and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. Feldman is an easy fade tonight, but we may want to limit our exposure to the Cubs’ offense as well.

Quick Breakdown: The Cubs have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, but I will not be targeting Feldman in this ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs see a sizable ballpark boost playing in Great American and have a fairly high implied run total. I’m not crazy about the stack though, as Scott Feldman does a really nice job of inducing soft and medium contact. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 30% hard contact rate. During that stretch, he has a ground ball rate of at least 47% against batters from both sides of the plate as well. He just doesn’t fit the mold of a pitcher that we want to stack hitters against. With all of that said, Anthony Rizzo stands out as an elite one-off target. He owns a .383 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.317	0.298	0.102	29.4%	5.4%	21.5%	52.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
2	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.374	0.353	0.313	35.4%	10.6%	31.0%	45.3%	2B	$3,400	2B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.389	0.383	0.254	36.3%	12.8%	15.4%	36.5%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,300
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.334	0.308	0.192	33.5%	9.0%	27.7%	53.7%	C	$3,300	C	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.301	0.293	0.165	28.9%	7.3%	22.5%	43.3%	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
6	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.298	0.267	0.156	29.2%	2.1%	25.7%	44.9%	2B	$2,500	2B/SS	$3,800	2B	$7,600
7	Tommy La Stella	LEFT	0.328	0.345	0.129	33.1%	11.6%	14.8%	39.0%	2B	$2,100	2B/3B	$3,000	3B	$6,000
8	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.276	0.254	0.095	27.8%	5.1%	20.2%	51.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,700
9	Mike Montgomery	LEFT	0.046	0.131	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	42.9%	77.8%	P	$7,300	P	$6,800	P	$13,500

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds have hit left-handed pitching well this season and nobody seems to have noticed. Everyone loves to target Billy Hamilton and Joey Votto against right-handed pitching, but the rest of this lineup is often forgotten. Their matchup against Mike Montgomery doesn’t look great on paper, but there are two batters that I have my eye on here. With Montgomery having an elite ground ball rate, I’m looking to target right-handed hitters with a high fly ball rate. Zack Cozart (who was activated from the DL) and Adam Duvall both fit the criteria.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.230	0.228	0.080	16.6%	3.0%	22.8%	44.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.357	0.325	0.239	35.2%	8.1%	17.3%	40.2%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.390	0.360	0.217	32.0%	11.2%	20.1%	55.4%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,600	1B	$8,800
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.371	0.356	0.280	39.6%	9.0%	23.9%	37.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,400
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.383	0.349	0.243	37.5%	12.6%	24.6%	46.1%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,600
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.342	0.356	0.236	36.3%	2.6%	16.5%	47.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.282	0.290	0.081	24.3%	3.8%	13.1%	53.3%	SS	$2,100	2B	$2,900	2B	$5,700
8	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.300	0.330	0.163	30.6%	15.3%	22.0%	44.4%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
9	Scott Feldman	RIGHT	0.000	0.223	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	33.3%	25.0%	P	$7,100	P	$6,300	P	$12,400

MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 30th

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Stackability Rating System:

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Kendrya Morales

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Flores

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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