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MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-28 02:42:37

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Philadelphia Chicago Cubs
philadelphiamlb Adam Morgan cubsmlb Jon Lester
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -300 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.296 3 12.2% 7.5% SP vs. Left 0.292 5 27.2% 5.4%
SP vs. Right 0.341 13 14.3% 5.1% SP vs. Right 0.285 17 24.0% 6.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Morgan
adam-morgan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,300
FPPG: 17.2 FPPG: 7.5
Pitcher Rating: 30.6 Pitcher Rank: 29
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 93.0 6.96 8.38 4.4% 11.1% 4.8% 30.6% 41.7% 32.4%
2016 5 88.6 5.17 5.61 13.5% 8.1% 9.5% 32.9% 40.0% 33.7%
2015 15 83.1 4.94 4.48 13.9% 4.8% 9.7% 30.6% 49.3% 29.8%

We have one early game on the schedule and with the wind blowing out to left field in Wrigley, I’m tempted to join some all-day league just so I can load up on the Cubs’ hitters. Morgan is a fly ball pitcher that has allowed 13 home runs to right-handed hitters in his last 20 starts. The total for this game is set at 9.0 runs and Morgan is the largest underdog on the schedule. Avoid Morgan and load up on the bats from Chicago.

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,500 Salary: $10,700
FPPG: 35.8 FPPG: 19.5
Pitcher Rating: 83.7 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 92.0 4.24 5.79 25.0% 12.5% 10.3% 45.8% 45.8% 44.0%
2016 9 99.1 3.61 2.60 23.9% 6.9% 9.1% 43.4% 34.5% 30.0%
2015 32 99.5 3.19 3.34 25.0% 5.7% 10.4% 48.9% 29.3% 29.0%

Even though the wind is blowing out to left today, that doesn’t mean that we should automatically fade Lester. There are better pitching targets for cash games, but Lester is a sneaky tournament play given the expected low ownership. He has pitched well this season, posting a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.9%. He has one of the best matchups on the board, as the Phillies are ranked 25th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and strikeout rate this season. Lester will need to keep it on the ground today, but he’s certainly capable of that.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies are one of the worst offenses in baseball. Even with the wind blowing out to left, they still have the third lowest projected run total of the 30 teams in action. While I don’t love the offense as a whole, the right-handed hitters are certainly in play here. It doesn’t take much for the wind in Wrigley to turn a routine fly ball into a home run.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.319 0.077 0.379 OF $3,800 OF $3,300
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.266 0.035 0.296 SS $2,700 SS $2,500
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.346 0.259 0.341 3B $2,900 3B $3,500
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.540 0.333 0.349 1B $2,000 1B/C $4,100
5 Carlos Ruiz RIGHT 0.386 0.225 0.168 C $2,700 C $3,200
6 Cesar Hernandez RIGHT 0.320 0.068 0.233 2B $2,300 2B $2,500
7 Tyler Goeddel RIGHT 0.234 0.097 0.426 OF $2,000 OF $3,000
8 Adam Morgan LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.000 P $6,400 P $4,300
9 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.272 0.125 0.260 OF $2,300 OF $2,400
Team Averages — 0.298 0.135 0.272 — — — —

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Tommy Joseph

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

As I mentioned above, I may join the all-day contests just so that I can load up on the Cubs’ hitters. They already draw one of the top matchups on the board and when you add in a strong wind blowing to left field, they become even more appealing. Chicago has the highest team total on the board and hitters from both sides of the plate are in play against Adam Morgan.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.367 0.139 0.371 OF $4,300 OF $5,300
2 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.405 0.194 0.474 2B $4,300 2B $5,100
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.342 0.214 0.402 3B $4,500 3B/OF $5,200
4 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.286 0.089 0.421 OF $2,600 OF $4,100
5 Matt Szczur RIGHT 0.351 0.255 0.559 OF $2,300 OF $3,500
6 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.255 0.150 0.262 SS $3,300 SS $3,700
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.423 0.156 0.096 SS $2,200 3B/SS $3,300
8 David Ross RIGHT 0.280 0.095 0.463 C $2,500 C $2,600
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.077 0.000 0.000 P $10,500 P $10,700
Team Averages — 0.310 0.144 0.339 — — — —

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Matt Szczur, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell, David Ross

Stackability – Cash & GPP

St. Louis at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis Washington
stlouismlb Jaime Garcia washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -170 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.260 2 23.1% 3.9% SP vs. Left 0.316 22 25.5% 6.9%
SP vs. Right 0.257 6 19.6% 7.7% SP vs. Right 0.224 19 36.8% 1.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jaime Garcia
jaime-garcia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,800
FPPG: 31.6 FPPG: 17.5
Pitcher Rating: 64.5 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 68.5 5.33 9.82 7.5% 12.5% 4.4% 64.5% 16.1% 34.4%
2016 9 88.7 3.44 3.59 23.3% 9.1% 10.2% 61.0% 19.9% 23.1%
2015 20 92.9 3.39 2.43 19.0% 5.9% 9.2% 61.2% 22.3% 27.1%

After a blazing start to the season, Garcia has hit a snag in his last few starts. His numbers overall still look great (3.44 SIERA with a 23.3% strikeout rate), but there are two reasons to be concerned tonight – his matchup and his current form. The Nationals aren’t generally thought of as a great offense, but they are ranked fifth in team wOBA and third in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Garcia is cheap, but there are better pitching options available tonight.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,900 Salary: $13,000
FPPG: 42.7 FPPG: 23.9
Pitcher Rating: 98.2 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 100.5 2.58 2.51 33.3% 5.6% 15.4% 31.3% 43.8% 21.9%
2016 10 104.8 2.86 3.80 31.5% 6.7% 14.7% 36.1% 43.0% 27.6%
2015 33 101.8 2.63 2.79 30.7% 3.8% 15.3% 35.8% 45.4% 28.1%

Scherzer grades out as the top rated pitcher on the board tonight. He has struggled with the long ball again this season, but has otherwise been tremendous. In his first ten starts, he has a 2.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.5% He is producing a ridiculous swinging strike rate of 14.7%, which trails only a few starters for best in the majors. The Cardinals are usually one of the better offenses against right-handed pitching, but they are currently without their leadoff man, Matt Carpenter. Scherzer is expensive, but I don’t mind building my cash game lineups around him tonight.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but they come into tonight’s game with the lowest team total on the board. The reason is simple. It rhymes with Lax Derzer. Max Scherzer owns an elite strikeout and he is pitching at home in a ballpark that doesn’t allow many home runs. Matt Adams and Brandon Moss are intriguing GPP plays, but the rest of the Cardinals can be avoided.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.325 0.137 0.344 2B $2,300 2B $2,600
2 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.411 0.273 0.273 SS $3,000 SS $2,500
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.354 0.184 0.190 OF $2,600 OF $2,500
4 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.350 0.163 0.398 OF $3,500 OF $3,200
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.336 0.185 0.525 1B $3,300 1B $2,500
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.314 0.099 0.224 C $2,700 C $2,300
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.370 0.272 0.393 OF $3,400 OF $2,700
8 Greg Garcia LEFT 0.373 0.175 0.786 2B $2,400 2B/SS $2,000
9 Jaime Garcia LEFT 0.111 0.000 0.000 P $8,000 P $7,800
Team Averages — 0.327 0.165 0.348 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Adams, Brandon Moss

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals have a similar problem as the Cardinals. While they have great splits against the handedness of the pitcher that they are facing, they have a low team total thanks to the talent level of the opposing pitcher. Over the last two seasons, Jaime Garcia has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 wOBA. The Nationals’ hitters are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.295 0.154 0.359 OF $2,200 OF $3,400
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.367 0.296 0.312 OF $2,900 OF $4,000
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.411 0.245 0.322 OF $3,800 OF $4,900
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.303 0.106 0.361 2B $4,100 2B $3,700
5 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.412 0.339 0.327 1B $3,400 1B $4,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.340 0.088 0.426 3B $3,900 3B $4,000
7 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.285 0.141 0.328 C $3,400 C $3,400
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.288 0.112 0.227 SS $2,200 SS $2,500
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.221 0.000 0.138 P $10,900 P $13,000
Team Averages — 0.325 0.165 0.311 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Michael Taylor, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – NONE

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
bostonmlb Joe Kelly torontomlb Aaron Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -127 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.309 6 19.5% 8.7% SP vs. Left 0.351 12 14.8% 12.4%
SP vs. Right 0.365 11 19.2% 10.0% SP vs. Right 0.228 1 22.2% 8.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Kelly
joe-kelly-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,400
FPPG: 24.3 FPPG: 10.8
Pitcher Rating: 42.3 Pitcher Rank: 22
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 1 104.0 3.48 0.00 28.0% 12.0% 9.6% 66.7% 26.7% 33.3%
2016 4 80.8 4.84 5.28 24.0% 17.3% 11.5% 55.8% 20.9% 37.2%
2015 25 95.1 4.23 4.82 18.8% 8.4% 7.5% 45.6% 29.4% 35.6%

Kelly is not off to a good start this season. Through four outings, he has a 4.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 17.3%. Until he improves his command, he can be avoided in DFS. A matchup against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre only makes the fade easier. Toronto has the seventh highest team total on the board tonight.

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $7,200
FPPG: 35.3 FPPG: 18.6
Pitcher Rating: 51.4 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 96.5 3.33 5.27 23.2% 7.1% 8.3% 54.1% 18.9% 43.6%
2016 9 97.8 3.62 3.20 21.4% 8.6% 8.3% 58.1% 20.4% 29.0%
2015 11 131.7 4.43 3.22 16.1% 11.6% 7.0% 60.6% 21.6% 21.0%

I generally try to avoid targeting pitchers in the Rogers Centre and try to avoid targeting pitchers against the Red Sox. While Sanchez has outperformed the expectations for his price time and time this season, there is more risk than potential reward tonight. The Red Sox lead the league in runs scored per game this season and they also lead the league in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Nothing against Sanchez, but there are better options.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox offense could only muster up two runs last night. What was even worse was seeing Jackie Bradley Jr. hitting streak come to an end. I’d like to formally apologize to everyone, as last night was the first time all seasons that I rostered him in cash games. For those of you that speak another language – Lo siento, Je suis désolé, 对不起. I knew it was going to happen too. Anyway, the Red Sox offense is in a decent spot tonight. While I do love the ballpark, Aaron Sanchez does have an elite ground ball rate close to 60%. If I’m paying up for batters, I’d rather look to Coors Field.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.353 0.194 0.443 OF $4,600 OF $4,900
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.355 0.152 0.363 2B $3,900 2B $3,600
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.334 0.111 0.445 SS $4,600 SS $4,700
4 David Ortiz LEFT 0.432 0.344 0.509 1B $4,700 1B $5,000
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.314 0.145 0.285 1B $3,700 1B $3,600
6 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.372 0.268 0.465 OF $4,400 OF $4,300
7 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.360 0.201 0.326 3B $3,700 3B $3,500
8 Blake Swihart SWITCH 0.318 0.133 0.323 C $2,500 C/OF $2,800
9 Ryan Hanigan RIGHT 0.273 0.074 0.344 C $2,200 C $2,200
Team Averages — 0.346 0.180 0.389 — — — —

Elite Plays – David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays come into tonight’s game with the seventh highest run projection. They draw a favorable matchup against Joe Kelly and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Toronto’s offense has been a disappointment thus far, but we are starting to see signs of life. This is also a good matchup for the Jays’ lineup in particular, as Kelly is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .365 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.391 0.295 0.458 OF $4,500 OF $5,000
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.376 0.251 0.210 3B $3,600 3B $4,300
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.376 0.265 0.341 1B $3,600 1B $4,200
4 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.348 0.161 0.389 OF $3,900 OF $4,000
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.341 0.221 0.315 1B $2,700 1B $3,200
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.300 0.177 0.298 C $2,300 C $3,100
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.303 0.127 0.144 OF $2,600 OF $3,200
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.352 0.160 0.221 2B $2,200 2B $3,600
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.287 0.106 0.200 2B $2,200 2B $2,400
Team Averages — 0.342 0.196 0.286 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Cleveland
baltimoremlb Mike Wright clevelandmlb Trevor Bauer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -125 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.410 7 13.5% 7.3% SP vs. Left 0.317 15 21.8% 11.3%
SP vs. Right 0.315 6 15.7% 9.3% SP vs. Right 0.311 13 23.4% 9.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Wright
mike-wright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,800
FPPG: 21.3 FPPG: 9.9
Pitcher Rating: 36.2 Pitcher Rank: 27
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 101.5 4.88 2.92 17.3% 11.5% 4.9% 47.2% 30.6% 27.8%
2016 7 100.6 4.48 4.97 16.9% 7.9% 6.7% 44.9% 32.3% 25.4%
2015 9 87.2 5.28 6.04 12.8% 8.8% 7.3% 37.7% 42.9% 29.7%

Wright has been an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS the last two seasons. In his last 16 major league starts, he has a SIERA close to 5.00 with a strikeout rate under 15%. Those aren’t exactly the type of numbers that we are looking for in daily fantasy. He should be avoided tonight against the Indians, who are ranked above the major league average in team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Trevor Bauer
trevor-bauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,000
FPPG: 19.0 FPPG: 9.4
Pitcher Rating: 54.8 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 105.5 4.68 5.40 15.4% 7.7% 8.5% 44.7% 34.2% 35.9%
2016 5 105 4.00 4.31 21.5% 9.3% 10.0% 47.4% 32.5% 36.2%
2015 30 95.6 4.20 4.55 22.9% 10.6% 9.6% 39.2% 40.7% 31.0%

Bauer hasn’t been great this season, but he provides decent upside at his price point. He sports a strikeout rate of 21.5% and he generally pitches pretty deep into games (averaging 105 pitches per start). He is not a favorite cash game target of mine, but he makes for an interesting GPP play. The Orioles do hit right-handed pitching well, but they also have the fifth highest team strikeout rate at 23.5%.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles hit right-handed pitching well as a team, ranking inside the top five in team wOBA and team ISO. They come into tonight’s game with the tenth highest team total on the board. They draw a decent matchup against Trevor Bauer, who has allowed a .311+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Bauer has also given up 28 home runs during that stretch.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.269 0.078 0.242 OF $2,700 OF $3,100
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.393 0.255 0.294 SS $4,100 3B/SS $4,800
3 Chris Davis LEFT 0.399 0.325 0.280 1B $3,800 1B $4,400
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.333 0.199 0.271 OF $2,600 OF $3,600
5 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.339 0.165 0.504 C $3,200 C $3,600
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.329 0.178 0.259 OF $3,400 OF $3,800
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.331 0.227 0.223 3B $2,800 1B $3,100
8 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.360 0.246 0.365 2B $3,200 2B $3,900
9 Hyun Soo Kim LEFT 0.456 0.083 0.436 OF $2,500 OF $3,300
Team Averages — 0.357 0.195 0.319 — — — —

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland

The Indians have quietly been producing offensively this season, ranking seventh in runs scored per game. They should be able to put together another nice outing tonight against Mike Wright, who is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .410 wOBA to left-handed hitters. You can still look to the right-handed bats in this lineup, but the lefties have the splits in their favor.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.346 0.220 0.362 1B $3,600 1B $4,500
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.382 0.169 0.334 2B $3,600 2B $4,800
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.331 0.131 0.393 SS $3,800 SS $4,900
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.285 0.162 0.265 1B $3,000 1B $3,300
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.305 0.139 0.341 P $4,000 3B/OF $3,500
6 Juan Uribe RIGHT 0.302 0.132 0.297 3B $2,700 3B $2,800
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.280 0.186 0.363 C $2,800 C $3,900
8 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.289 0.122 0.358 OF $2,400 OF $3,100
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.317 0.162 0.392 OF $3,600 OF $3,900
Team Averages — 0.315 0.158 0.345 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – GPP

LA Dodgers at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

LA Dodgers NY Mets
ladodgersmlb Julio Urias nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -120 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left SP vs. Left 0.292 14 24.5% 5.0%
SP vs. Right SP vs. Right 0.224 5 26.6% 5.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Urias
julio-urias-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,600
FPPG: 0.0 FPPG: 0.0
Pitcher Rating: 81.5 Pitcher Rank: 6

Urias is making his much-anticipated major league debut tonight. He is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and he is still under the age of 20 (makes me feel like an old man). He will become the youngest Dodgers’ pitcher to take the mound since 1980. Urias has an electric fastball that has good movement and he has dominated the minor leagues so far. In his seven Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 1.10 ERA with a strikeout rate of 29.7%. He may not stick around for long, but he is a great play tonight against the Mets. Not only has New York never seen him pitch at this level, but they struggle against lefties in general. I currently have him ranked as the sixth best pitching option overall and one of the best values on the board.

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $9,900
FPPG: 29.6 FPPG: 15.1
Pitcher Rating: 84.9 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 101.0 5.00 5.56 20.4% 12.2% 11.9% 22.6% 48.4% 48.5%
2016 7 92.6 4.23 3.07 17.7% 6.5% 11.7% 44.4% 32.3% 35.7%
2015 30 99.2 2.99 2.54 27.3% 5.1% 12.7% 44.4% 34.7% 26.3%

DeGrom hasn’t looked like himself this season. He couldn’t even dominate a weak Brewers’ lineup at home. Through his first seven starts, deGrom has a 4.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.7%. His velocity is slowly coming back though, and his swinging strike rate is coming up as well. I’m not too concerned about his prospects for the rest of the season. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Dodgers at home. This could be a good time to buy low on deGrom, as he is priced under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have surprisingly been one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. They are ranked 25th in team wOBA and 27th in team ISO this season. They come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. I will be avoiding their batters altogether, as Jacob deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Chase Utley LEFT 0.315 0.141 0.295 2B $3,100 2B $3,300
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.358 0.184 0.338 SS $3,800 SS $3,500
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.356 0.174 0.285 3B $2,900 3B $2,800
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.352 0.205 0.291 1B $2,800 1B $3,300
5 Trayce Thompson RIGHT 0.367 0.214 0.419 OF $3,100 OF $3,000
6 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.357 0.225 0.379 OF $3,400 OF $3,700
7 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.301 0.142 0.324 OF $2,600 OF $3,200
8 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.321 0.183 0.132 C $2,500 C $2,700
9 Julio Urias LEFT P $6,900 P $7,600
Team Averages — 0.341 0.184 0.308 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

It’s always tough to predict how these major league debuts are going to go. Julio Urias is only 19 years old and there is a good chance that he could be a bit overwhelmed. He could also come out and dominate like he has in the minor leagues. I’m not sure how tonight is going to go, but I would only target the Mets’ hitters in GPPs. They have the eighth lowest team total on the board.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.258 0.127 0.284 OF $3,000 OF $2,900
2 David Wright RIGHT 0.387 0.225 0.274 3B $3,000 3B $4,000
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.165 0.000 0.361 OF $3,600 OF $3,500
4 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.368 0.263 0.456 OF $4,300 OF $4,300
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.296 0.136 0.367 2B $2,800 2B $2,800
6 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.311 0.123 0.288 SS $3,300 SS $2,900
7 Ty Kelly SWITCH 0.000 1B $2,200 3B/OF $2,000
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.205 0.061 0.160 C $2,100 C $2,000
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.098 0.000 0.393 P $9,600 P $9,900
Team Averages — 0.261 0.117 0.287 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious