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MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:41:56

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Minnesota at Pittsburgh – 1:05 PM ET

Minnesota Pittsburgh
minnesotamlb Lance Lynn pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-120 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.348 30.3% 13.8% 15.1% 44.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.342 27.7% 9.3% 15.3% 48.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.272 28.0% 6.4% 24.2% 43.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.270 31.4% 6.6% 26.3% 45.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.85 3.43 19.7% 10.1% 44.0% 29.2% 21.1%

Lynn is making his Twins’ debut today against the Pirates. His 2017 was mediocre at best. He finished the year with a 4.85 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 20%. He had an average ground ball rate and an above-average walk rate. While he’ll have to make most of his starts against American League teams this season, he faces a familiar opponent in his first start of the season. The Pirates may not have the most potent lineup in baseball, but they have one of the lowest strikeout rates. Six of their nine projected starters had a strikeout rate below 20% against right-handed pitching last season.

Quick Breakdown: Pitching options are scarce in the early slate, but I will still be avoiding Lynn in all formats.

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 9 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.24 4.44 21.3% 7.8% 47.3% 29.6% 22.1%

Taillon ended his 2017 campaign with an ERA of 4.44, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He was better than the major league average in the following statistics: strikeout rate, walk rate, hard contact rate, and soft contact rate. While the Twins have plenty of firepower in their lineup, they also strikeout at a high rate. Their projected lineup had an average strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching last season.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is the main pitcher on my radar for the early four-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins find themselves in a difficult spot. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they lose the use of the designated hitter in this series, and they are underdogs on the road. Jameson Taillon had some interesting splits in 2017, as he allowed a higher xwOBA to left-handed hitters (.342), but a higher hard contact rate to right-handed hitters (31%). Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are the most appealing plays here, as they are both cheap and bat from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.338 0.321 0.200 33.2% 10.6% 20.3% 38.0% 2B $4,000 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.353 0.391 0.127 41.1% 12.0% 13.5% 49.7% 1B $2,500 1B $3,200 N/A N/A
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.344 0.343 0.227 44.8% 10.4% 37.3% 40.1% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.374 0.346 0.263 34.0% 7.5% 17.7% 38.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.323 0.313 0.213 33.3% 5.8% 21.2% 33.5% SS $2,200 3B $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Max Kepler LEFT 0.356 0.321 0.219 35.9% 9.4% 16.9% 40.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.298 0.268 0.163 27.3% 5.7% 31.3% 40.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.313 0.320 0.153 35.0% 12.3% 29.0% 40.2% C $2,200 C $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Lance Lynn RIGHT 0.103 0.124 0.049 14.3% 0.0% 37.8% 63.6% P $7,500 P $8,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates don’t play in the most hitter-friendly ballpark around, but they draw a decent matchup against Lance Lynn, who has struggled with left-handed hitters throughout his career. In 2017, he allowed a .348 xwOBA with a 14% walk rate to lefties. If you are looking for a stack, you are in luck. Four of the first six batters in the Pirates’ lineup (Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, and Corey Dickerson) can bat from the left side.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.327 0.325 0.140 29.0% 8.3% 12.3% 47.1% OF $2,300 2B/OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.324 0.314 0.148 33.1% 4.8% 16.6% 34.4% 2B $3,200 2B $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.316 0.321 0.168 28.0% 7.2% 12.2% 39.8% OF $2,900 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.344 0.325 0.208 32.5% 11.3% 19.6% 52.2% 1B $3,000 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.354 0.322 0.133 25.4% 6.4% 18.4% 48.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
6 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.337 0.324 0.217 34.8% 6.2% 23.5% 38.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.320 0.324 0.127 32.1% 9.9% 21.1% 48.1% C $2,500 C $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.306 0.302 0.147 27.4% 9.1% 15.6% 48.4% SS $2,600 SS $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.097 0.119 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 41.9% 83.3% P $8,200 P $8,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson (GPP), Gregory Polanco (FD)

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson (Cash), Gregory Polanco (DK), Starling Marte

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Kansas City Detroit
kansascitymlb Jason Hammel detroitmlb Francisco Liriano
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.328 31.1% 6.2% 17.9% 34.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.251 18.3% 5.0% 22.0% 55.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.343 32.1% 5.7% 18.2% 42.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.374 0.364 33.2% 14.2% 18.6% 41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Hammel
jason-hammel-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $7,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 19 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.65 5.29 18.0% 6.0% 38.0% 31.6% 16.6%

Hammel was one of my favorite pitchers to target hitters against last season. He finished the year with a 4.65 SIERA and a below-average strikeout rate. He doesn’t induce many ground ball outs, which can be troublesome in home run-friendly ballparks. While targeting right-handed pitchers against the Tigers will be profitable at times this season, Hammel actually had reverse splits in 2017, so he may not benefit from facing a right-handed heavy lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Hammel is a small underdog in a game that features a total of nine runs. He’s an easy fade.

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $7,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.09 5.66 19.4% 12.1% 44.9% 29.6% 16.8%

Liriano is hoping to bounce back after a disappointing 2017 season. He finished with a 5.09 SIERA, a below-average strikeout rate, and a walk rate of 12%. He needs to improve his command to have success, especially since he relies on hitters chasing his pitches to be successful. For whatever reason, I’ve always had a soft spot for Liriano. He tends to end up on way too many of my lineups throughout the season. We can’t feel confident about Liriano until we see him flash some form, but he’s arguably a top four pitcher in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Liriano is worth a look in tournaments, butTaillon is the better cash game target.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals are a frustrating offense in DFS because even when they score a bunch of runs (which doesn’t happen all that often), they do it by hitting singles and doubles. Much like chicks, DFS players dig the long ball. We can rule out the left-handed hitters in this lineup, as Francisco Liriano has been dominant against lefties for years. The right-handed bats are viable though, as Liriano gave up a .364 xwOBA to righties last season. Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler are both viable here and I expect their ownership to be reasonable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.341 0.355 0.024 15.7% 11.9% 16.8% 50.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.337 0.327 0.207 32.4% 6.1% 15.3% 39.0% 2B $3,500 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.325 0.304 0.201 29.0% 3.7% 14.9% 41.5% 3B $3,600 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.276 0.289 0.216 37.5% 7.1% 34.8% 40.6% 1B $2,900 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
5 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.237 0.290 0.189 34.8% 11.9% 33.3% 30.4% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
6 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.276 0.255 0.115 23.7% 7.1% 25.0% 47.4% 3B $2,300 3B $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.287 0.387 0.067 33.3% 0.0% 18.8% 33.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 N/A N/A
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.305 0.280 0.134 30.2% 4.8% 15.2% 40.7% SS $2,200 SS $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.265 0.276 0.104 36.1% 9.4% 22.6% 22.2% C $2,100 C $2,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield

Secondary Plays – Jorge Soler, Paulo Orlando

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers have the second highest implied run total of the eight teams in the early slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Jason Hammel and get to face him at home in what has been a hitter-friendly ballpark over the years. Hammel wasn’t particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters last season, allowing a .328+ xwOBA to both. The one-through-five stack is viable here, with Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, and Victor Martinez standing out as the best individual plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.203 0.260 0.081 26.6% 5.9% 26.9% 40.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.336 0.319 0.131 26.5% 11.5% 19.7% 45.8% 3B $2,900 3B $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.294 0.374 0.146 42.0% 8.8% 20.2% 40.3% 1B $3,900 1B $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.329 0.356 0.191 42.4% 6.1% 22.9% 35.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.307 0.362 0.132 42.4% 8.6% 14.5% 38.2% C $2,500 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.280 0.296 0.119 38.5% 5.7% 26.5% 38.1% C $2,400 C $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.335 0.298 0.162 34.8% 6.6% 21.4% 48.9% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.284 0.262 0.121 28.4% 4.3% 14.8% 52.1% SS $2,600 SS $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.304 0.266 0.089 33.3% 4.6% 18.5% 58.2% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $3,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

St. Louis Milwaukee
stlouismlb Miles Mikolas milwaukeemlb Zach Davies
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-119 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.335 0.340 30.7% 8.9% 17.0% 45.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.316 27.0% 4.6% 13.4% 54.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Miles Mikolas
miles-mikolas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Mikolas will be making his first major league appearance since 2014. He spent the last three seasons pitching in Japan and by all accounts, returns as a much-improved pitcher. When we don’t have information to work with, I tend to take the wait and see approach. Mikolas is pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. It doesn’t help that the Brewers have a few more left-handed hitters in their lineup than they did a year ago.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an eye on Mikolas moving forward, but avoid him against the Brewers.

Zach Davies
zach-davies-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $9,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.72 3.90 15.2% 6.7% 50.2% 28.8% 19.9%

Davies is one of a handful of pitchers that everyone wanted to be really bad last season. He reminds me of Doug Fister. While he isn’t a great fantasy option himself, stacking offenses against him tends to backfire more often than not. Davies has a below-average strikeout rate, but he has an above-average ground ball rate and he limits hard contact against him. The Cardinals will likely strikeout at a higher rate this season, but they have more firepower in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Davies doesn’t have the strikeout upside needed to warrant consideration.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Miller Park. Their matchup against Zach Davies isn’t one that I would call elite, but he does have a low strikeout rate (15%). In 2017, he allowed a .340 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .316 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. I’m not as high on the Cardinals’ offense as the Pirates, Brewers, or Tigers, but love using Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter as one-offs in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.359 0.353 0.236 37.5% 13.2% 22.6% 37.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.392 0.357 0.197 34.6% 12.4% 23.4% 51.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.378 0.379 0.240 43.1% 17.6% 19.1% 24.7% 3B $3,200 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.394 0.360 0.264 39.6% 8.8% 22.3% 45.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.349 0.382 0.155 36.2% 9.3% 19.9% 44.5% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.312 0.315 0.140 33.5% 5.6% 14.6% 43.9% C $2,800 C $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.348 0.330 0.226 35.6% 3.6% 27.3% 32.4% SS $2,600 SS $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.338 0.322 0.139 28.1% 9.6% 14.2% 46.4% 2B $2,000 2B $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Miles Mikolas RIGHT P $5,500 P $6,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

It’s always difficult to predict how a pitcher is going to fare in his first major league start, or in this case, in his first major league start in four years. Miles Mikolas pitched well in Japan and looked good in the Spring, but this is obviously a different ball game. The Brewers have one of the highest implied run totals of the slate and they are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. A stack is certainly viable here, as things can get out of hand quickly when a pitcher is dealing with nerves.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.363 0.362 0.167 37.3% 13.1% 19.9% 54.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.351 0.333 0.124 29.5% 8.1% 16.0% 45.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
3 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.374 0.356 0.249 39.7% 11.0% 21.3% 42.8% 3B $3,700 3B $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.341 0.324 0.206 35.8% 7.5% 20.9% 50.2% 1B $3,100 1B/OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Eric Thames LEFT 0.388 0.358 0.284 43.4% 15.3% 27.4% 37.2% 1B $2,900 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.296 0.268 0.134 35.0% 6.4% 30.4% 56.3% 2B $2,700 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.325 0.289 0.167 30.5% 6.2% 21.2% 35.5% C $2,400 C $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.320 0.291 0.151 31.4% 5.7% 17.8% 51.4% SS $2,200 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Zach Davies RIGHT 0.186 0.177 0.049 14.3% 8.3% 21.7% 64.3% P $7,100 P $9,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Ryan Braun, Eric Thames (FD)

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames (FD), Lorenzo Cain, Jonathan Villar

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 4:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Cincinnati
cubsmlb Tyler Chatwood cincinnatimlb Tyler Mahle
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-130 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.336 29.5% 14.0% 19.5% 58.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.399 0.312 36.8% 24.1% 10.3% 61.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.315 28.6% 10.2% 18.5% 58.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.274 0.323 18.2% 6.4% 17.5% 48.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Chatwood
tyler-chatwood-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $10,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.78 4.69 19.0% 12.2% 58.1% 29.1% 22.1%

This game isn’t featured in the early-only slate on FanDuel, but it is included in the all-day slate and also in the early slate on DraftKings. Chatwood has struggled at Coors Field throughout his career, but that’s the case for most pitchers. He finished the 2017 season with a 3.49 ERA on the road while holding opponents to a .297 wOBA. While his strikeout rate isn’t elite by any means, it’s close to the major league average. He does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact, which is exactly what he’ll need to do in the Great American Ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Chatwood will be a sneaky play on the road all season, but there are better options in the all-day slate.

Tyler Mahle
tyler-mahle-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $6,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 19 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 5.53 2.70 15.2% 12.0% 52.5% 23.8% 22.2%

Mahle will only be making his fifth career major league start, so we shouldn’t put a lot of stock into his 2017 numbers. It’s worth noting that he struggled with his command at the major league level (12% walk rate), but his numbers in Triple-A were significantly better. In ten starts, he posted a 3.25 FIP with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 5%. The biggest issue today is obviously the matchup. The Cubs are a scary team to target pitchers against.

Quick Breakdown: Mahle is a pitcher to keep an eye, but should be avoided like the plague in a matchup against the Cubs.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are going to be near the major lead league in home runs when all is said and done this season. Tyler Mahle had a 39% ground ball rate (which is low) in the minors last season and the Cubs get to face him in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark. If the slate you are playing on includes this game, a Cubs’ stack is viable in all formats. The fact that they are playing on the road only helps, as they are guaranteed ninth inning at bats (which isn’t the case for the home team when they are winning).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.354 0.339 0.286 35.9% 11.3% 33.1% 41.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.399 0.351 0.248 31.7% 12.8% 20.3% 38.0% 3B $4,800 3B $5,200 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.380 0.402 0.230 34.4% 13.9% 13.0% 39.8% 1B $4,600 1B $5,100 N/A N/A
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.347 0.310 0.209 35.3% 8.1% 25.7% 53.0% C $3,400 C $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.350 0.363 0.290 39.0% 11.1% 29.5% 39.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
6 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.301 0.299 0.176 32.5% 6.4% 22.7% 37.9% SS $3,400 SS $4,300 N/A N/A
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.308 0.277 0.186 29.3% 6.0% 29.1% 49.6% 2B $3,300 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
8 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.323 0.330 0.140 27.1% 10.3% 11.4% 47.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Tyler Chatwood RIGHT 0.161 0.147 0.042 12.5% 0.0% 17.2% 63.2% P $6,300 P $10,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Ian Happ, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

On paper, this appears to be a great spot for the Reds. They are playing at home in one of the best hitter’s parks and they are facing a pitcher with a SIERA close to 5.00. However, Tyler Chatwood is not a pitcher that I like to pick on when he is pitching on the road. He has an elite ground ball rate and as mentioned above, he held batters under a .300 wOBA last season. I will gladly play Joey Votto here (basically against any right-handed pitcher in this ballpark), but I’ll take a stance against the rest of the Reds.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.294 0.253 0.091 16.1% 8.4% 20.3% 46.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.344 0.348 0.188 31.4% 12.5% 23.0% 38.2% 3B $2,800 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.432 0.433 0.253 37.3% 19.1% 10.3% 37.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,500 N/A N/A
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.393 0.339 0.259 36.7% 6.4% 20.6% 39.4% 2B $2,900 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.332 0.349 0.269 39.8% 9.5% 24.0% 44.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
6 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.306 0.276 0.211 31.5% 5.1% 27.8% 30.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.264 0.278 0.069 20.3% 3.4% 14.5% 43.7% SS $2,000 SS $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.323 0.333 0.135 35.2% 9.8% 15.9% 42.8% C $2,000 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Tyler Mahle RIGHT 0.200 0.165 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 25.0% 100.0% P $5,800 P $6,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious